September 21, 2026 Navigating uncertainty and adapting to change Remarks Tiff Macklem Halifax Partnership Halifax, Nova Scotia Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how Canadian businesses and households have adapted to structural forces. He then explores how a re-escalation in trade tensions and high energy prices are shifting risks and considers the implications for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation
September 21, 2026 Speech: Tiff Macklem, Governor Halifax Partnership Halifax, NS Content Type(s): Upcoming events
September 18, 2026 The AI transformation Artificial intelligence is changing how much we produce and what work humans do. But we don’t yet know all the ways AI will affect the economy. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth
Automation and Inequality: How Robots Shift Income Between Workers and Owners Staff working paper 2026-34 Gabriela Galassi, Gaelan MacKenzie This paper examines the direct effects of industrial robot adoption on workers and owners within Canadian private corporations. Adoption increases firm scale and per-worker payroll but does not decrease the labor share of value added. Conventional accounting of labor income earned by owners masks the impact on non-owner workers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D3, D33, J, J2, J23, J3, J31, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
A New Approach to Estimating Portfolio-Balance Models of the Yield Curve Staff working paper 2026-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios Portfolio-balance models of the yield curve are notoriously hard to estimate. This paper offers a simple, two-step estimation approach that can be implemented with standard term structure estimation methods. In our application to U.S. Treasury data, our method recovers economically interpretable drivers of the yield curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Liquidity Optimization in Gross Settlement Systems with Quantum Reordering: Application to TARGET2∗ Staff working paper 2026-32 Valerio Astuti, Adriano Baldeschi, Luca Bastianelli, Giuseppe Bruno, Riccardo Russo, Ajit Desai, Danica Marsden Building on our earlier quantum algorithm, this paper shows that reordering queued payments can significantly reduce liquidity needs. The algorithm performs well on smaller payment batches, while traditional algorithms can process larger batches and deliver greater savings. Machine learning also helps identify which payment patterns offer the greatest potential for improvement. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, C8, C83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Labor Markets, Financial Crises, and Inflation: Jobless and Wageless Recoveries* Staff working paper 2026-31 Guillermo Calvo, Emilio Colombi, Fabrizio Coricelli, Pablo Ottonello We document the macroeconomic patterns that characterize labor market recovery from financial crises. Using a sample of postwar recession episodes from around the world, we show that financial crises are typically followed by jobless recoveries, with a sluggish recovery in employment relative to output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E31, E4, E44, F, F3, F32 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Climate Change and Monetary Policy: Navigating Physical Risks Staff analytical paper 2026-44 Tatjana Dahlhaus Weather-related disasters can reduce output while increasing inflation, creating difficult trade-offs for monetary policy. This note reviews evidence on the macroeconomic effects of physical climate risks and uses a structural model to assess how more frequent and severe disasters could shape future monetary policy challenges. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E1, E12, E3, E31, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Climate change
Segmented Inflation Dynamics (SID): Identifying Trend Inflation from the Price Index Staff analytical paper 2026-43 André Binette, Colleen Smith This note presents Segmented Inflation Dynamics (SID), a data-driven tool for assessing trend inflation. SID uses time-series segmentation to divide the price index into contiguous segments with stable inflation rates. Based on data through December 2025, SID indicates that Canada’s trend inflation has been near 2 percent since early 2024. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures
Hedge funds and bond market liquidity dynamics at the onset of the 2026 Middle East conflict Staff analytical paper 2026-42 Vincent Meh, Jabir Sandhu, Andreas Uthemann We investigate whether hedge funds contributed to Government of Canada bond market illiquidity at the onset of the Middle East war in early 2026. We find no evidence they did. Hedge funds remained active in primary auctions, while their secondary market trading remained broadly consistent with their usual relative-value strategies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23, G24 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning