January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Canadian economy—Outlook Economic growth in Canada is projected to rise to around 1.8% in 2025 and 2026, outpacing potential output, and excess supply is gradually absorbed. Inflation is expected to remain close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target.
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Canadian economy—Current conditions Inflation remains close to 2%, and past cuts in interest rates are boosting economic growth in Canada. At the same time, the threat of wide-ranging tariffs by the new US administration has increased uncertainty.
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Recent factors affecting the Canada-US exchange rate The Canadian dollar has declined against the US dollar since October 2024, mostly due to rising uncertainty around trade policies. A widening differential in policy interest rates between the two countries has also played a modest role.
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Overview Economic growth has ticked up in Canada, boosted by past cuts in interest rates. In the absence of new tariffs, growth is forecast to strengthen, and inflation remains close to 2%. But the threat of new tariffs is causing major uncertainty.
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—In focus—Evaluating the potential impacts of US tariffs The new US administration is considering sweeping tariffs on imports. While many important elements are unknown, these measures could be highly disruptive to the Canadian and US economies.
January 29, 2025 Monetary Policy Report—January 2025—Risks The prospect of wide-ranging US import tariffs is the most important risk to the outlook. Given the fast-evolving situation and the high degree of uncertainty, the Bank has chosen not to include new tariffs in the projection.
January 1, 2025 Governance documents Legislation, reports, plans, policies and other documents relating to the governance of the Bank.
December 20, 2024 Our next $5 bank note On December 16, 2024, the Government of Canada announced that Terry Fox will be featured on the new $5 note.