Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios Staff Working Paper 2012-1 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks and Labour Market Fluctuations in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2011-10 Yahong Zhang What are the effects of financial market imperfections on unemployment and vacancies in Canada? The author estimates the model of Zhang (2011) – a standard monetary dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model augmented with explicit financial and labour market frictions – with Canadian data for the period 1984Q2–2010Q4, and uses it to examine the importance of financial shocks on labour market fluctuations in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, J, J6
The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market Staff Working Paper 2011-28 Christiane Baumeister, Gert Peersman There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short-run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Price-Level Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence Staff Working Paper 2011-18 Robert Amano, Jim Engle-Warnick, Malik Shukayev In this paper, we use an economics decision-making experiment to test a key assumption underpinning the efficacy of price-level targeting relative to inflation targeting for business cycle stabilization and mitigating the effects of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil Staff Working Paper 2011-16 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Financial Factors and Labour Market Fluctuations Staff Working Paper 2011-12 Yahong Zhang What are the effects of financial market imperfections on unemployment and vacancies? Since standard DSGE models do not typically model unemployment, they abstract from this issue. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, J, J6
Financial Spillovers Across Countries: The Case of Canada and the United States Staff Discussion Paper 2011-1 Kimberly Beaton, Brigitte Desroches The authors investigate financial spillovers across countries with an emphasis on the effect of shocks to financial conditions in the United States on financial conditions and economic activity in Canada. These questions are addressed within a global vector autoregression model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E32, F, F3, F36, F4, F40
The Propagation of U.S. Shocks to Canada: Understanding the Role of Real-Financial Linkages Staff Working Paper 2010-40 Kimberly Beaton, René Lalonde, Stephen Snudden This paper examines the transmission of U.S. real and financial shocks to Canada and, in particular, the role of financial frictions in affecting the transmission of these shocks. These questions are addressed within the Bank of Canada's Global Economy Model (de Resende et al. forthcoming), a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking sector and a detailed role for financial frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E27, E3, E32, F, F3, F36, F4, F40
The Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in Bank Capital and Liquidity Requirements in Canada: Insights from the BoC-GEM-FIN Staff Discussion Paper 2010-16 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, Nikita Perevalov The authors use simulations within the BoC-GEM-FIN, the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model with financial frictions in both the demand and supply sides of the credit market, to investigate the macroeconomic implications of changing bank regulations on the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, G, G1, G2
On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model Staff Working Paper 2010-30 Sarah Zubairy This paper contributes to the debate on fiscal multipliers, in the context of a structural model. I estimate a micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, that features a rich fiscal policy block and a transmission mechanism for government spending shocks, using Bayesian techniques for US data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E3, E32, E6, E62, H, H3, H30