Identifying Policy-makers' Objectives: An Application to the Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2000-11 Nicholas Rowe, James Yetman In this paper, we develop a new way to test hypotheses about policy-makers' targets, and we implement that test for Canadian monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E61
Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2000-10 James Yetman The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
Modelling Risk Premiums in Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets Staff Working Paper 2000-9 René Garcia, Maral Kichian The observed predictability of excess returns in equity and foreign exchange markets has largely been attributed to the presence of time-varying risk premiums in these markets. For example, excess equity returns were found to be explained by various financial and economic variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes Staff Working Paper 2000-7 Greg Tkacz Previous studies have shown that interest rate yield spreads contain useful information about future changes in inflation. However, such studies have for the most part focused on linear models, ignoring potential non-linearities between interest rates and inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E31
Some Explorations, Using Canadian Data, of the S-Variable in Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (1996) Staff Working Paper 2000-6 Seamus Hogan, Lise Pichette A number of authors have suggested that economies face a long-run inflation-unemployment trade-off due to downward nominal-wage rigidity. This theory has implications for the nature of the short-run Phillips curve when wage inflation is low. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E2, E24, E5, E50
Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator Staff Working Paper 2000-5 Greg Tkacz The debate on the order of integration of interest rates has long focused on the I(1) versus I(0) distinction. In this paper, we use instead the wavelet OLS estimator of Jensen (1999) to estimate the fractional integration parameters of several interest rates for the United States and Canada from 1948 to 1999. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, E, E4, E43
Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada Staff Working Paper 2000-3 Gilles Bérubé, Denise Côté This paper examines the structural determinants of the personal savings rate in Canada over the last 30 years, using cointegration techniques. The main finding is that the real interest rate, expected inflation, the ratio of the all-government fiscal balances to nominal GDP, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income are the most […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, E21
The Expectations Hypothesis for the Longer End of the Term Structure: Some Evidence for Canada Staff Working Paper 1999-20 Ron Lange This paper assesses the expectations theory for the longer end of the term structure of Canadian interest rates using three empirical approaches that have received attention in the literature: (i) cointegration tests of the long-run unbiasedness hypothesis; (ii) simulations of a theoretical long-term yield that is consistent with the expectations hypothesis, and (iii) ex post […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43
Optimal Currency Areas: A Review of the Recent Literature Staff Working Paper 1999-16 Robert Lafrance, Pierre St-Amant This paper surveys the recent literature on optimal currency areas (OCAs). Topics that are covered include theoretical developments in the context of general-equilibrium models and empirical work on shocks asymmetry and adjustment mechanisms. Issues relating to the endogeneity of OCA criteria, the role of exchange rate flexibility in promoting greater macroeconomic stability, and the links […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, F, F3, F33
The U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate: A New Estimation Approach Staff Working Paper 1999-14 René Lalonde The recent strengh of the U.S. economy and historically low rates of inflation have sparked considerable debate among economists and Federal Reserve officials. In order to better explain the recent behaviour of inflation, some observers have raised the concept of a non-accelerating inflation capacity utilization rate (NAICU). In this study, the author presents a new […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37