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The ongoing trade conflict is fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy and will have a lasting negative impact on economic activity. At the same time, the reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is putting upward pressure on costs. Reflecting these two competing forces, inflation remains near the 2% target over the projection horizon.

Economic growth in Canada is projected to strengthen from around 0.75% in the second half of 2025, with annual growth averaging 1.4% over 2026 and 2027. Inflation is expected to remain around 2% over the projection horizon.

Many countries have signed new trade agreements with the United States. US tariffs continue to be in flux, and the future of trade in North America remains uncertain.

On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the interest rate decision.

Canadian economic growth has slowed, reflecting the disruptive effects of US tariffs and a decline in population growth. Exports and business investment have slumped. After being close to 2% for several months, CPI inflation was 2.4% in September.

This November, the Bank of Canada Museum invites visitors to celebrate the 15^th anniversary of Financial Literacy Month (FLM) with a full lineup of free, hands-on activities that make money management approachable, practical, and fun for all ages.

Search the list of registered payment services providers.

On Monday, October 20, 2025, the Bank of Canada will release the third quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse reveal that firms’ outlooks and intentions remain subdued despite a gradual improvement in sentiment. Expectations for growth in domestic and export sales are still soft. Most firms do not plan to increase staffing, and investment intentions are restrained. While businesses continue to expect cost increases from tariffs and trade uncertainty, weak demand limits their ability to pass these costs through to prices. One-year-ahead inflation expectations remain below the peak reached earlier in the trade conflict.