Canada’s Cross-Border Carry Trade Staff analytical paper 2026-54 Bruno Feunou, Rishi Vala, Andreas Uthemann, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine Canada has spent more than its national income for much of the post-Global Financial Crisis period. Yet favourable asset-price and exchange-rate movements have raised Canada’s net foreign assets. Since 1990, cumulative valuation gains were about three times the current-account deficit, relaxing the adjustment needed to stabilize Canada’s external position. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F31, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Conduct of Monetary Policy under Housing Market Imbalances Staff analytical paper 2026-53 Amina Enkhbold, Serdar Kabaca Canadian housing imbalances have elevated shelter inflation as a driver of CPI, fueled by high house prices, mortgage costs, rents, supply constraints, and leverage. This note uses a model with housing supply and extrapolative expectations to assess whether monetary policy should incorporate or look through shelter inflation under demand and supply shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Demand roars, supply whispers: Monetary policy and housing in Canada Staff analytical paper 2026-52 Stéphane Surprenant We examine the effects of monetary policy shocks on the Canadian housing market. Using high-frequency surprises around fixed announcement dates as an instrument in a Bayesian VAR, we estimate the responses of house prices, housing starts, building permits, resales, inventories, and mortgage purchases to a contractionary monetary policy shock. An increase in the policy rate leads to a substantial and persistent decline in average house prices. Housing starts and building permits fall, but their implied effects on the future housing stock are both slow and modest. Interpreted through the lens of market equilibrium, these results are most consistent with a stronger response of housing demand than housing supply. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, R, R3, R31 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Auction Timing Under Limited Information: Evidence from Sovereign Bond Auctions Staff analytical paper 2026-51 Jeffrey Gao, Adam Epp This paper examines how auction timing may affect sovereign issuance outcomes through its interaction with market volatility. Using Canada as a case study, it shows that: (1) higher same-day bond market volatility is associated with larger auction tails, indicating weaker demand conditions; and (2) monetary policy announcements and certain macroeconomic data releases are systematically associated with higher same-day volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G14, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning
Stress in the Press or Stress in the Market: A New Measure of Perceived Financial Stress Staff analytical paper 2026-50 Brett Barnes, Thibaut Duprey, Fred Liu We develop a news-based measure of perceived financial stress for Canada using Globe and Mail articles since 1977. We show that news shocks primarily impact unsecured households credit, consistent with household precautionary behavior. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C82, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
How Costly Are Cross-Border Payments for Firms? Staff analytical paper 2026-49 Jiaqi Li Using proprietary FXC Intelligence data on quoted prices for Canadian business-to-business cross-border payments, this note finds that banks charge firms around 2–3.5% of transaction value. Prices vary considerably across banks for the same corridor, transaction amount, and year. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, F, F2, F29, Y, Y1, Y10 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
October 16, 2026 The Bank of Canada releases the third quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations On Monday, October 19, 2026, the Bank of Canada will release the third quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
October 16, 2026 Fireside chat with Michelle Alexopoulos, External Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada On Friday, October 16, 2026, Michelle Alexopoulos, External Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a fireside chat at Sobey School of Business at Saint Mary’s University. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
October 16, 2026 Panel with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada On Friday, October 16, 2026, Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will participate in a panel at the IMF Annual Meetings. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
October 15, 2026 Panel: Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor Atlantic Council Bangkok, Thailand Content Type(s): Upcoming events