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2338
result(s)
Growth in Emerging Market Economies and the Commodity Boom of 2003–2008: Evidence from Growth Forecast Revisions
Staff Working Paper 2012-8
Elif Arbatli,
Garima Vasishtha
Demand for industrial raw materials from emerging economies, particularly emerging Asia, is widely believed to have fueled the surge in oil and industrial commodity prices during 2002-2008. The paper first presents a simple storage model in which commodity prices respond to market participant’s changing expectations of the future macroeconomic environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
Q,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43
Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models
Staff Working Paper 2012-7
Claudia Godbout,
Marco J. Lombardi
While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C50,
C53,
E,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E47
Macroprudential Rules and Monetary Policy when Financial Frictions Matter
Staff Working Paper 2012-6
Jeannine Bailliu,
Césaire Meh,
Yahong Zhang
This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy and whether policy makers should respond to financial imbalances. To address this issue, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model that features financial market frictions and financial shocks as well as standard macroeconomic shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Financial markets,
Financial stability,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E50,
E6,
E60
February 23, 2012
What Explains Trends in Household Debt in Canada?
Similar to the experiences in many other countries, household indebtedness in Canada has exhibited an upward trend over the past 30 years. Both mortgage and non-mortgage (consumer) credit have contributed to this development. In this article, the authors use microdata to highlight the main factors underlying the strong trend increase since the late 1990s. Favourable housing affordability, owing to factors such as income growth and low interest rates, has supported significant increases in home-ownership rates and mortgage debt. Much of the rise in consumer credit has been facilitated by higher housing values (used as collateral for loans) and financial innovation that makes it easier for households to access this credit.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
D14,
E,
E5,
E51
February 23, 2012
Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada
Understanding how much of the increased debt load of Canadian households has been used to finance household spending on consumption and home renovation is important for the conduct of monetary policy. In this article, the authors use a comprehensive data set that provides information on the uses of debt by Canadian households. They first present some facts regarding the evolution of Canadian household debt over the period from 1999 to 2010, emphasizing the increased importance of debt flows that are secured by housing. They then explore how Canadian households have used their borrowed funds over the same period, and assess the role of these borrowed funds in financing total consumption and spending on home renovation. Finally, they examine the possible effects of a decline in house prices on consumption when housing equity is used as collateral against household indebtedness.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Domestic demand and components,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E5,
E51,
H,
H3,
H31
February 23, 2012
Medium-Term Fluctuations in Canadian House Prices
This article draws on theory and empirical evidence to examine a number of factors behind movements in Canadian house prices. It begins with an overview of the movements in house prices in Canada, using regional data to highlight factors that influence prices over the long run. It then turns to the central theme, that there are medium-run movements in prices not accounted for by long-run factors. Drawing on recent Bank of Canada research, the article discusses several factors behind these medium-run movements, including interest rates, expected price appreciation and market liquidity. The article concludes by identifying areas for future research that would further our understanding of fluctuations in house prices.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
R,
R2,
R21,
R3,
R31
February 23, 2012
Household Insolvency in Canada
With increasing levels of household debt in recent years, the number of households that may be vulnerable to a negative economic shock is rising as well. Decisions made by both the debtor and the creditor can contribute to insolvency. This article presents some stylized facts about insolvency in Canada’s household sector and analyzes the role of creditors in insolvencies. The average debt of an individual filing for bankruptcy is more than 1.5 times that of an average Canadian household; bankruptcy filers tend to be unemployed or in low-wage jobs, and are typically renters. The article reports that banks that approve more loans per branch, which is interpreted as less-intensive use of soft information (such as the loan officer’s assessment of the applicant’s character), experience more client bankruptcies. This finding has important policy implications, because financial institutions that do not use soft information risk further deterioration in their lending portfolios.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
G,
G2
Why Is Cash (Still) So Entrenched? Insights from the Bank of Canada’s 2009 Methods-of-Payment Survey
Staff Discussion Paper 2012-2
Carlos Arango,
Dylan Hogg,
Alyssa Lee
The authors present key insights from the Bank of Canada’s 2009 Methods-of-Payment survey. In the survey, about 6,800 participants completed a questionnaire with detailed information regarding their personal finances, as well as their use and perceptions of different payment methods.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D12,
E,
E4,
E41,
L,
L8,
L81
An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks
Staff Working Paper 2012-5
Gregory Bauer,
Antonio Diez de los Rios
We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Exchange rates,
Interest rates
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
F,
F3,
F31,
G,
G1,
G12,
G15