Posts

• July 30, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—July 2025—Risks

  Considerable uncertainty surrounds the outlook for inflation. It is extremely difficult to predict how US trade policy will play out and how businesses, households and governments will react to a given level of tariffs. The outlook also faces risks that are not directly related to tariffs.
• July 22, 2025

  CFEC Releases Results of April 2025 Foreign Exchange Volume Survey

  The Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee (CFEC) released today the results of its April 2025 semi-annual survey of foreign exchange volumes in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee
• July 21, 2025

  Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2025

  Tariffs and related uncertainty continue to weigh on firms, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. While overall sales outlooks remain weak, outlooks for exports have recovered somewhat, with worst-case trade scenarios appearing less likely. Firms remain cautious in their hiring and investment plans. Some businesses reported cost pressures from tariffs, but competition and weak demand are constraining price pass-through to customers. In this context, firms’ short-term inflation expectations are lower than they were last quarter.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• July 21, 2025

  The Bank of Canada releases the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  On Monday, July 21, 2025, the Bank of Canada will release the second quarter issues of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• July 21, 2025

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2025

  Overall, results of the second-quarter 2025 survey show that the CSCE indicator—a measure developed to summarize the opinions of Canadian consumers—declined again this quarter as spending intentions continued to weaken due to the persistent threats of tariffs and related uncertainty. Consumers still see the labour market as soft, and their fear of job loss is elevated. The trade conflict is leading consumers to become increasingly cautious about their spending plans and to change their spending behaviour. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations have changed little since increasing markedly in the first quarter of 2025. This quarter, more consumers cited tariffs as the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
• July 17, 2025

  Discontinuation of one-month treasury bill

  As announced in the 2025-26 Debt Management Strategy, the Government of Canada will be discontinuing the one-month treasury bill. This is in line with the policy intent to introduce it on a temporary basis as previously outlined in the federal 2024 Budget and a market notice. The last one-month treasury bill auction will occur on 29 July 2025.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices
• July 17, 2025

  How economic uncertainty disrupts investment

  

  Business investment plays a pivotal role in economic growth.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple
• July 17, 2025

  Canadian Financial Sector Resiliency Group

  Canadian Financial Sector Resiliency Group (CFRG) is a public-private partnership led by the Bank of Canada that is designed to strengthen the financial sector’s critical infrastructure against risks to business operations, including cyber incidents. Find out about our mandate, membership, or contact us.

• Synthesizing Signals from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  Staff discussion paper 2025-11 Jacob Dolinar, Patrick Sabourin, Matt West

  We introduce the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations indicator. This indicator provides a summary measure of consumer opinions that we can track over time. We construct three underlying sub-indexes—financial health, labour market and consumer spending—that capture different factors influencing consumers’ daily lives.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
• July 11, 2025

  Retail payments supervision: Upcoming events

  Access a list of our information sessions—and find out how to sign up.