Posts

• September 30, 2023

  Info Source

  This document provides information about the functions, programs, activities and related information holdings of government institutions subject to the Access to Information Act and the Privacy Act.
• September 30, 2023

  Access to Information and Privacy (ATIP)

  The Bank of Canada is subject to the Access to Information Act and the Privacy Act.
• September 30, 2023

  ATIP - FAQ

  Find answers to questions about Access to Information and Privacy (ATIP) at the Bank.
• September 30, 2023

  Quarterly Research Update – 2023 Q3

  This newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
• September 30, 2023

  Annual Reports, Info Source and Completed Requests

  Access ATIP annual reports, Information about Programs and Information Holdings and completed ATIP requests.

• Predicting Changes in Canadian Housing Markets with Machine Learning

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-21 Johan Brannlund, Helen Lao, Maureen MacIsaac, Jing Yang

  We apply two machine learning algorithms to forecast monthly growth of house prices and existing homes sales in Canada. Although the algorithms can sometimes outperform a linear model, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Housing JEL Code(s): A, C, C4, C45, C5, C53, D, D2, R, R2, R3

• Anonymous Credentials: Secret-Free and Quantum-Safe

  Staff Working Paper 2023-50 Raza Ali Kazmi, Cyrus Minwalla

  An anonymous credential mechanism is a set of protocols that allows users to obtain credentials from an organization and demonstrate ownership of these credentials without compromising users’ privacy. In this work, we construct the first secret-free and quantum-safe credential mechanism.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G21, O, O3, O31

• Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?

  Staff Working Paper 2023-49 Josef Schroth

  A regulator would want to restrict dividends to force banks to rebuild capital during a crisis. But such a policy is not time-consistent. A time-consistent policy would let banks gradually rebuild capital and pay dividends even when their equity remains below pre-crisis levels.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44

• Tattle-tails: Gauging downside risks using option prices

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-13 Greg Adams, Maksym Tupis

  Options markets offer unique insights into the changing risks different assets face, which helps us better understand the broader risks to the Canadian economy. We show how option prices help reveal that investors did not anticipate large downside risks to either major Canadian banks or economic growth during the March 2023 financial sector system stress, a period when policy-makers and investors were unsure of what the future held for Canada’s economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52
• September 25, 2023

  CARR Meeting (September 25, 2023)

  Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group