Celine Poilly - Latest

• Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty

  Staff working paper 2026-12 Anastasiia Antonova, Mykhailo Matvieiev, Celine Poilly

  Recessions feature elevated uncertainty. We develop a nonlinear imperfect-information New Keynesian model where procyclical information quality generates endogenous countercyclical uncertainty and precautionary saving. This demand channel can overturn the inflationary impact of negative supply shocks, making them deflationary, unless monetary policy stabilizes the output gap.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, D83, E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission