Q4 - Energy
-
-
Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil
We construct a monthly real-time data set consisting of vintages for 1991.1-2010.12 that is suitable for generating forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. -
The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil
Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the same time, oil prices have increased dramatically. -
Forecasting the Price of Oil
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications?