Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, Lender of last resort, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems
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June 9, 2010
Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball?
Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy. -
Estimating the Structure of the Payment Network in the LVTS: An Application of Estimating Communities in Network Data
In the Canadian large value payment system an important goal is to understand how liquidity is transferred through the system and hence how efficient the system is in settling payments. Understanding the structure of the underlying network of relationships between participants in the payment system is a crucial step in achieving the goal.