a. US specification, ECI https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=239093 Initial condition Vacancy-to-unemployment ratio Energy prices Food prices Shortages Productivity growth Residuals Actual data 2.551.11-0.03-0.04-0.15-0.173.27 2.330.00-3.79-0.070.84-0.100.02-0.76 2.58-0.16-3.080.970.86-0.46-2.47-1.77 2.59-1.351.41-0.412.29-0.570.754.71 2.54-1.221.240.180.05-0.550.823.07 2.63-0.133.20-0.200.56-0.62-1.084.37 2.63-0.670.470.314.36-0.551.888.43 2.64-0.361.640.13-0.16-0.431.635.10 2.670.382.770.471.89-0.442.149.89 2.680.493.990.710.35-0.301.359.27 2.700.773.230.800.640.131.709.97 2.730.82-3.780.990.020.221.442.45 2.750.63-1.260.670.700.21-0.413.29 2.770.67-1.050.410.040.340.563.75 2.790.61-1.080.22-0.140.260.022.69