Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=246050 Labour variables data Population (including judgment) GDP and investment Negative trade confidence Broad-based tariffs (Scenario 2) Total (Scenario 1) Total (Scenario 2) x Short-run adjustment Long-run adjustment (Baqaee-Farhi) Trend labour input Trend labour productivity Trend labour productivity: Scenario 2 Trend labour productivity: growth reduction in Scenario 2 relative to Scenario 1 Potential output: Scenario 1 Potential output: Scenario 2 Potential output: April 2024 Trend employment rate Trend average hours worked Population growth Trend labour input Lower bound Upper bound 0.900.901.901.901.90-0.12-0.231.290.94 1.100.801.901.901.90-0.22-0.201.491.07 1.000.901.901.902.00-0.16-0.211.421.04 -0.80-0.10-0.90-0.90-1.00-1.97-0.221.44-0.75 -0.020.010.260.000.000.250.252.500.402.902.902.601.81-0.160.822.47 -0.060.020.19-0.010.000.150.151.300.501.801.801.70-0.24-0.211.741.29 -0.050.040.22-0.010.000.210.212.90-0.402.502.502.30-0.07-0.203.172.90 -0.040.080.35-0.020.000.370.383.30-0.502.902.902.500.35-0.283.273.33 -0.11-0.060.36-0.06-0.630.13-0.510.700.500.601.801.201.70-0.35-0.201.220.67 0.03-0.200.08-0.11-0.96-0.20-1.160.200.201.001.300.401.50-0.20-0.170.520.15 0.08-0.21-0.04-0.09-0.40-0.26-0.660.200.800.401.401.001.70-0.24-0.140.570.19 0.601.000.101.701.60-0.15-0.110.910.65 10.00 2-0.33 3-0.66 4-0.84 5-1.02-0.90 6-1.08-0.90 7-1.14-0.90 8-1.20-0.90 9-1.25-0.90 10-1.20-0.90 11-1.16-0.90 12-1.14-0.90 13-1.12-0.90 14-1.11-0.90 15-1.10-0.90 16-1.09-0.90 17-1.08-0.90 18-1.07-0.90 19-1.06-0.90 20-1.05-0.90 0.330.18 0.240.11 0.270.08 0.450.22 0.470.26 0.310.13 0.350.15 0.340.19 0.590.18 0.660.20 0.350.15 0.610.26 0.680.26 0.470.15 0.630.30 0.540.18 0.590.15 0.460.44 0.310.15 0.330.18