https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=254670 Strike oil price (USD) Just before the start of the war in the Middle East (February 27, 2026) Peak of oil futures prices (May 4, 2026) Late June (June 29, 2026) Strike oil price (USD) Just before the start of the war in the Middle East (February 27, 2026) Peak of oil futures prices (May 4, 2026) Late June (June 29, 2026) 2-year US Treasury note yield (left scale) 2-year US inflation swap (left scale) 2-year Government of Canada bond yield (left scale) Variance in 1-month Brent oil futures prices (right scale) 1-month Brent oil futures prices (right scale) 10.0000.0000.0000.00010.0000.0000.0040.014 10.4810.0000.0000.00010.4810.0000.0050.018 10.9620.0000.0000.00010.9620.0000.0060.022 11.4430.0000.0000.00011.4430.0000.0080.027 11.9240.0000.0000.00011.9240.0000.0100.032 12.4050.0000.0000.00012.4050.0010.0120.038 12.8860.0000.0000.00012.8860.0010.0150.045 13.3670.0000.0000.00013.3670.0020.0170.053 13.8480.0000.0000.00013.8480.0020.0200.061 14.3290.0000.0000.00014.3290.0030.0240.070 14.8100.0000.0000.00014.8100.0040.0280.079 15.2910.0000.0000.00015.2910.0050.0320.089 15.7720.0000.0000.00015.7720.0070.0360.099 16.2530.0000.0000.00016.2530.0090.0410.110 16.7330.0000.0000.00016.7330.0120.0460.121 17.2140.0000.0000.00017.2140.0150.0510.133 17.6950.0000.0000.00017.6950.0180.0560.145 18.1760.0000.0000.00018.1760.0230.0620.157 18.6570.0000.0000.00018.6570.0280.0680.170 19.1380.0000.0000.00019.1380.0330.0750.183 19.6190.0000.0000.00019.6190.0400.0820.196 20.1000.0000.0000.00020.1000.0470.0880.209 20.5810.0000.0000.00020.5810.0560.0950.222 21.0620.0000.0000.00021.0620.0650.1030.235 21.5430.0000.0000.00021.5430.0760.1100.249 22.0240.0000.0000.00022.0240.0870.1180.262 22.5050.0000.0000.00022.5050.0990.1260.275 22.9860.0000.0000.00022.9860.1130.1340.288 23.4670.0000.0000.00023.4670.1280.1420.301 23.9480.0000.0000.00023.9480.1430.1500.314 24.4290.0000.0000.00024.4290.1600.1580.327 24.9100.0000.0000.00024.9100.1780.1660.339 25.3910.0000.0000.00025.3910.1980.1750.352 25.8720.0000.0000.00025.8720.2180.1830.364 26.3530.0000.0000.00026.3530.2390.1920.375 26.8340.0000.0000.00026.8340.2610.2000.387 27.3150.0000.0000.00027.3150.2850.2090.398 27.7960.0000.0000.00027.7960.3090.2170.408 28.2770.0000.0000.00028.2770.3340.2260.419 28.7580.0000.0000.00028.7580.3600.2350.429 29.2380.0000.0000.00029.2380.3860.2440.438 29.7190.0000.0000.00029.7190.4130.2530.448 30.2000.0000.0000.00030.2000.4410.2620.457 30.6810.0000.0000.00030.6810.4700.2710.465 31.1620.0000.0000.00031.1620.4990.2810.473 31.6430.0000.0000.00031.6430.5280.2900.481 32.1240.0000.0000.00032.1240.5570.3000.489 32.6050.0000.0000.00032.6050.5870.3110.496 33.0860.0000.0000.00033.0860.6170.3210.502 33.5670.0000.0000.00033.5670.6470.3320.509 34.0480.0000.0000.00034.0480.6770.3440.515 34.5290.0000.0000.00034.5290.7070.3560.521 35.0100.0000.0000.00035.0100.7370.3690.526 35.4910.0000.0000.00035.4910.7670.3830.532 35.9720.0010.0000.00035.9720.7960.3970.537 36.4530.0010.0000.00036.4530.8250.4130.542 36.9340.0010.0000.00036.9340.8540.4290.547 37.4150.0020.0000.00037.4150.8820.4460.552 37.8960.0030.0000.00037.8960.9100.4640.557 38.3770.0040.0000.00038.3770.9370.4840.562 38.8580.0050.0000.00038.8580.9640.5050.567 39.3390.0060.0000.00039.3390.9900.5260.572 39.8200.0080.0000.00039.8201.0160.5500.578 40.3010.0110.0000.00040.3011.0410.5740.584 40.7820.0140.0010.00040.7821.0650.6000.591 41.2630.0180.0010.00041.2631.0890.6270.598 41.7430.0230.0010.00041.7431.1120.6560.606 42.2240.0290.0010.00042.2241.1350.6860.614 42.7050.0370.0010.00042.7051.1570.7170.624 43.1860.0450.0010.00143.1861.1780.7500.634 43.6670.0560.0020.00143.6671.1990.7840.646 44.1480.0680.0020.00144.1481.2190.8200.658 44.6290.0820.0030.00244.6291.2390.8560.672 45.1100.0990.0030.00345.1101.2590.8940.687 45.5910.1190.0040.00445.5911.2780.9330.704 46.0720.1410.0050.00646.0721.2970.9730.722 46.5530.1670.0050.00846.5531.3161.0140.742 47.0340.1960.0060.01047.0341.3341.0560.763 47.5150.2290.0080.01447.5151.3531.0980.787 47.9960.2650.0090.01847.9961.3711.1410.811 48.4770.3060.0100.02448.4771.3901.1840.838 48.9580.3510.0120.03148.9581.4081.2280.866 49.4390.4010.0140.04049.4391.4271.2720.896 49.9200.4550.0160.05149.9201.4451.3160.928 50.4010.5140.0180.06450.4011.4641.3600.962 50.8820.5780.0210.08150.8821.4841.4040.997 51.3630.6460.0240.10051.3631.5031.4471.033 51.8440.7200.0280.12451.8441.5231.4901.072 52.3250.7980.0310.15252.3251.5431.5321.112 52.8060.8800.0350.18452.8061.5631.5741.153 53.2870.9680.0400.22253.2871.5831.6151.195 53.7681.0590.0450.26553.7681.6041.6541.238 54.2481.1540.0500.31554.2481.6251.6931.283 54.7291.2520.0560.37254.7291.6461.7301.328 55.2101.3540.0630.43655.2101.6681.7661.374 55.6911.4590.0700.50755.6911.6891.8001.420 56.1721.5650.0780.58756.1721.7111.8331.467 56.6531.6740.0860.67456.6531.7321.8641.513 57.1341.7830.0950.77057.1341.7541.8941.560 57.6151.8940.1040.87557.6151.7751.9221.606 58.0962.0040.1150.98758.0961.7961.9471.653 58.5772.1140.1261.10858.5771.8161.9711.698 59.0582.2230.1371.23759.0581.8361.9931.743 59.5392.3300.1501.37359.5391.8562.0131.786 60.0202.4350.1631.51660.0201.8752.0311.829 60.5012.5360.1771.66560.5011.8932.0461.870 60.9822.6350.1921.81960.9821.9102.0601.910 61.4632.7300.2071.97961.4631.9262.0721.948 61.9442.8200.2242.14161.9441.9412.0811.985 62.4252.9050.2412.30662.4251.9552.0892.020 62.9062.9850.2592.47362.9061.9682.0942.052 63.3873.0590.2782.63963.3871.9792.0972.083 63.8683.1280.2982.80463.8681.9892.0992.111 64.3493.1900.3182.96764.3491.9982.0982.137 64.8303.2450.3403.12664.8302.0052.0952.160 65.3113.2940.3623.28065.3112.0102.0912.181 65.7923.3350.3853.42865.7922.0142.0842.200 66.2733.3700.4093.56966.2732.0162.0762.215 66.7543.3980.4333.70166.7542.0162.0662.229 67.2343.4180.4583.82467.2342.0152.0552.239 67.7153.4320.4843.93667.7152.0122.0422.247 68.1963.4380.5104.03768.1962.0072.0272.253 68.6773.4380.5384.12668.6772.0002.0112.256 69.1583.4310.5654.20369.1581.9921.9942.256 69.6393.4180.5944.26769.6391.9821.9752.253 70.1203.3980.6224.31870.1201.9701.9552.249 70.6013.3730.6524.35670.6011.9571.9342.241 71.0823.3420.6814.38071.0821.9421.9112.232 71.5633.3050.7114.39171.5631.9251.8882.220 72.0443.2640.7424.38972.0441.9071.8642.206 72.5253.2180.7724.37572.5251.8871.8392.189 73.0063.1670.8034.34873.0061.8661.8132.171 73.4873.1130.8344.31073.4871.8441.7862.150 73.9683.0550.8664.26073.9681.8211.7592.128 74.4492.9940.8974.20074.4491.7961.7312.104 74.9302.9300.9284.13174.9301.7701.7032.078 75.4112.8630.9604.05275.4111.7431.6742.051 75.8922.7940.9913.96575.8921.7161.6452.022 76.3732.7231.0223.87176.3731.6871.6161.992 76.8542.6511.0533.77176.8541.6581.5861.961 77.3352.5781.0833.66477.3351.6281.5561.929 77.8162.5041.1143.55377.8161.5971.5261.895 78.2972.4291.1443.43878.2971.5661.4961.861 78.7782.3541.1733.32078.7781.5341.4651.826 79.2592.2791.2033.20079.2591.5021.4351.790 79.7392.2041.2313.07779.7391.4701.4051.753 80.2202.1291.2592.95480.2201.4371.3751.716 80.7012.0551.2872.83180.7011.4051.3451.678 81.1821.9821.3142.70781.1821.3721.3151.641 81.6631.9101.3402.58581.6631.3391.2861.603 82.1441.8391.3662.46382.1441.3071.2561.564 82.6251.7691.3902.34482.6251.2741.2271.526 83.1061.7011.4142.22783.1061.2421.1991.488 83.5871.6341.4382.11283.5871.2091.1701.449 84.0681.5691.4602.00084.0681.1771.1421.411 84.5491.5061.4811.89184.5491.1461.1151.373 85.0301.4441.5021.78685.0301.1141.0871.335 85.5111.3841.5211.68485.5111.0841.0611.298 85.9921.3261.5401.58685.9921.0531.0341.261 86.4731.2701.5581.49286.4731.0231.0081.224 86.9541.2161.5751.40186.9540.9940.9831.188 87.4351.1631.5901.31487.4350.9650.9581.153 87.9161.1131.6051.23187.9160.9360.9331.118 88.3971.0641.6191.15288.3970.9080.9091.083 88.8781.0171.6311.07788.8780.8810.8851.049 89.3590.9721.6431.00689.3590.8540.8621.016 89.8400.9291.6540.93889.8400.8280.8400.983 90.3210.8881.6630.87490.3210.8030.8180.951 90.8020.8481.6720.81490.8020.7780.7960.920 91.2830.8101.6790.75791.2830.7530.7750.890 91.7640.7741.6860.70391.7640.7300.7540.860 92.2440.7391.6910.65392.2440.7070.7340.831 92.7250.7061.6960.60592.7250.6840.7150.802 93.2060.6741.6990.56193.2060.6620.6960.775 93.6870.6441.7020.51993.6870.6410.6770.748 94.1680.6151.7030.48094.1680.6210.6590.722 94.6490.5881.7040.44494.6490.6010.6410.696 95.1300.5621.7030.41095.1300.5810.6240.672 95.6110.5371.7020.37895.6110.5630.6070.648 96.0920.5131.7000.34996.0920.5450.5910.625 96.5730.4911.6970.32196.5730.5270.5750.602 97.0540.4691.6930.29697.0540.5100.5600.580 97.5350.4491.6880.27297.5350.4940.5450.559 98.0160.4291.6820.25098.0160.4780.5310.539 98.4970.4101.6760.23098.4970.4620.5170.519 98.9780.3931.6690.21198.9780.4470.5030.500 99.4590.3761.6610.19399.4590.4330.4900.482 99.9400.3601.6530.17799.9400.4190.4770.464 100.4210.3451.6430.162100.4210.4060.4650.447 100.9020.3301.6330.149100.9020.3930.4530.431 101.3830.3161.6230.136101.3830.3800.4410.415 101.8640.3031.6120.124101.8640.3680.4300.400 102.3450.2901.6000.114102.3450.3560.4190.385 102.8260.2781.5880.104102.8260.3450.4080.371 103.3070.2671.5750.095103.3070.3340.3980.357 103.7880.2561.5620.086103.7880.3240.3880.344 104.2690.2461.5480.079104.2690.3140.3790.332 104.7490.2361.5340.072104.7490.3040.3690.320 105.2300.2261.5190.065105.2300.2950.3600.308 105.7110.2171.5050.060105.7110.2860.3510.297 106.1920.2081.4890.054106.1920.2770.3430.286 106.6730.2001.4740.049106.6730.2680.3350.276 107.1540.1921.4580.045107.1540.2600.3270.266 107.6350.1841.4410.041107.6350.2520.3190.257 108.1160.1771.4250.037108.1160.2450.3120.248 108.5970.1701.4080.033108.5970.2370.3050.239 109.0780.1631.3910.030109.0780.2300.2980.231 109.5590.1571.3740.027109.5590.2240.2910.223 110.0400.1511.3570.025110.0400.2170.2840.215 110.5210.1451.3400.022110.5210.2110.2780.208 111.0020.1391.3220.020111.0020.2040.2720.201 111.4830.1331.3050.018111.4830.1990.2660.194 111.9640.1281.2870.017111.9640.1930.2600.188 112.4450.1231.2690.015112.4450.1870.2550.181 112.9260.1181.2510.013112.9260.1820.2490.175 113.4070.1141.2330.012113.4070.1770.2440.170 113.8880.1091.2160.011113.8880.1720.2390.164 114.3690.1051.1980.010114.3690.1670.2340.159 114.8500.1011.1800.009114.8500.1620.2300.154 115.3310.0971.1620.008115.3310.1580.2250.149 115.8120.0931.1440.007115.8120.1530.2210.145 116.2930.0891.1270.006116.2930.1490.2160.140 116.7740.0851.1090.006116.7740.1450.2120.136 117.2550.0821.0920.005117.2550.1410.2080.132 117.7350.0791.0740.005117.7350.1370.2040.128 118.2160.0761.0570.004118.2160.1340.2000.125 118.6970.0721.0400.004118.6970.1300.1970.121 119.1780.0701.0230.003119.1780.1270.1930.118 119.6590.0671.0060.003119.6590.1230.1890.114 120.1400.0640.9890.003120.1400.1200.1860.111 120.6210.0610.9720.002120.6210.1170.1830.108 121.1020.0590.9560.002121.1020.1140.1800.105 121.5830.0560.9400.002121.5830.1110.1760.102 122.0640.0540.9240.002122.0640.1080.1730.100 122.5450.0520.9080.002122.5450.1050.1710.097 123.0260.0500.8920.001123.0260.1020.1680.095 123.5070.0470.8760.001123.5070.1000.1650.092 123.9880.0450.8610.001123.9880.0970.1620.090 124.4690.0430.8460.001124.4690.0940.1600.088 124.9500.0420.8310.001124.9500.0920.1570.086 125.4310.0400.8160.001125.4310.0900.1540.084 125.9120.0380.8020.001125.9120.0870.1520.082 126.3930.0360.7880.001126.3930.0850.1500.080 126.8740.0350.7730.001126.8740.0830.1470.078 127.3550.0330.7600.000127.3550.0810.1450.076 127.8360.0320.7460.000127.8360.0790.1430.075 128.3170.0300.7330.000128.3170.0770.1410.073 128.7980.0290.7190.000128.7980.0750.1390.071 129.2790.0280.7060.000129.2790.0730.1370.070 129.7600.0270.6930.000129.7600.0710.1350.068 130.2400.0250.6810.000130.2400.0690.1330.067 130.7210.0240.6690.000130.7210.0680.1310.066 131.2020.0230.6560.000131.2020.0660.1290.064 131.6830.0220.6440.000131.6830.0640.1270.063 132.1640.0210.6330.000132.1640.0630.1250.062 132.6450.0200.6210.000132.6450.0610.1240.060 133.1260.0190.6100.000133.1260.0600.1220.059 133.6070.0180.5990.000133.6070.0580.1200.058 134.0880.0170.5880.000134.0880.0570.1190.057 134.5690.0170.5770.000134.5690.0550.1170.056 135.0500.0160.5670.000135.0500.0540.1150.055 135.5310.0150.5570.000135.5310.0530.1140.054 136.0120.0140.5460.000136.0120.0510.1120.053 136.4930.0140.5370.000136.4930.0500.1110.052 136.9740.0130.5270.000136.9740.0490.1090.051 137.4550.0120.5170.000137.4550.0480.1080.050 137.9360.0120.5080.000137.9360.0470.1070.049 138.4170.0110.4990.000138.4170.0450.1050.048 138.8980.0110.4900.000138.8980.0440.1040.047 139.3790.0100.4810.000139.3790.0430.1030.047 139.8600.0100.4730.000139.8600.0420.1010.046 140.3410.0090.4640.000140.3410.0410.1000.045 140.8220.0090.4560.000140.8220.0400.0990.044 141.3030.0080.4480.000141.3030.0390.0980.044 141.7840.0080.4400.000141.7840.0380.0960.043 142.2650.0080.4320.000142.2650.0370.0950.042 142.7450.0070.4240.000142.7450.0360.0940.041 143.2260.0070.4170.000143.2260.0350.0930.041 143.7070.0060.4100.000143.7070.0350.0920.040 144.1880.0060.4030.000144.1880.0340.0910.039 144.6690.0060.3950.000144.6690.0330.0890.039 145.1500.0060.3890.000145.1500.0320.0880.038 145.6310.0050.3820.000145.6310.0310.0870.038 146.1120.0050.3750.000146.1120.0310.0860.037 146.5930.0050.3690.000146.5930.0300.0850.036 147.0740.0040.3620.000147.0740.0290.0840.036 147.5550.0040.3560.000147.5550.0280.0830.035 148.0360.0040.3500.000148.0360.0280.0820.035 148.5170.0040.3440.000148.5170.0270.0810.034 148.9980.0040.3380.000148.9980.0260.0800.034 149.4790.0030.3330.000149.4790.0260.0790.033 149.9600.0030.3270.000149.9600.0250.0780.033 150.4410.0030.3220.000150.4410.0250.0780.032 150.9220.0030.3160.000150.9220.0240.0770.032 151.4030.0030.3110.000151.4030.0230.0760.031 151.8840.0030.3060.000151.8840.0230.0750.031 152.3650.0020.3010.000152.3650.0220.0740.030 152.8460.0020.2960.000152.8460.0220.0730.030 153.3270.0020.2910.000153.3270.0210.0720.029 153.8080.0020.2860.000153.8080.0210.0710.029 154.2890.0020.2810.000154.2890.0200.0710.028 154.7700.0020.2770.000154.7700.0200.0700.028 155.2510.0020.2720.000155.2510.0190.0690.028 155.7310.0020.2680.000155.7310.0190.0680.027 156.2120.0020.2630.000156.2120.0180.0680.027 156.6930.0020.2590.000156.6930.0180.0670.026 157.1740.0010.2550.000157.1740.0170.0660.026 157.6550.0010.2510.000157.6550.0170.0650.026 158.1360.0010.2470.000158.1360.0170.0650.025 158.6170.0010.2430.000158.6170.0160.0640.025 159.0980.0010.2390.000159.0980.0160.0630.025 159.5790.0010.2350.000159.5790.0150.0620.024 160.0600.0010.2320.000160.0600.0150.0620.024 160.5410.0010.2280.000160.5410.0150.0610.024 161.0220.0010.2240.000161.0220.0140.0600.023 161.5030.0010.2210.000161.5030.0140.0600.023 161.9840.0010.2170.000161.9840.0140.0590.023 162.4650.0010.2140.000162.4650.0130.0580.022 162.9460.0010.2100.000162.9460.0130.0580.022 163.4270.0010.2070.000163.4270.0130.0570.022 163.9080.0010.2040.000163.9080.0120.0560.021 164.3890.0010.2010.000164.3890.0120.0560.021 164.8700.0010.1980.000164.8700.0120.0550.021 165.3510.0010.1950.000165.3510.0120.0550.020 165.8320.0010.1920.000165.8320.0110.0540.020 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