July 2026 Monetary Policy Report https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=254445 CEER (left scale) CEER (left scale) CEER, excluding the United States (left scale) CEER, excluding the United States (left scale) Can$/US$ exchange rate (right scale) Can$/US$ exchange rate (right scale) AI-related components AI-related components Other Other Green technology Green technology Total Total Brent Brent January Report January Report April Report April Report July Report July Report Consumption per person Consumption per person Population Population Consumption growth Consumption growth Total CPI Total CPI Total CPI excluding gasoline Total CPI excluding gasoline Average of CPI-trim and CPI-median Average of CPI-trim and CPI-median Target Target Food Food Goods excluding food and energy Goods excluding food and energy Shelter Shelter Services excluding shelter Services excluding shelter Energy Energy Total CPI Total CPI Costs, including energy Costs, including energy Removal of consumer carbon tax and changes to federal fuel excise tax Removal of consumer carbon tax and changes to federal fuel excise tax Output gap Output gap Other Other Total CPI inflation Total CPI inflation Total CPI Total CPI Total CPI excluding energy Total CPI excluding energy Target Target Goods excluding food and energy (28.0) Goods excluding food and energy (28.0) Durable goods (13.0) Durable goods (13.0) Non-durable goods (7.8) Non-durable goods (7.8) Semi-durable goods (7.2) Semi-durable goods (7.2) Food in stores (10.9) Food in stores (10.9) Other (3.2) Other (3.2) Fruits and vegetables (2.4) Fruits and vegetables (2.4) Meat and seafood (2.1) Meat and seafood (2.1) Bakery and cereal products (1.4) Bakery and cereal products (1.4) Dairy products and eggs (1.7) Dairy products and eggs (1.7) Energy (6.7) Energy (6.7) Gasoline (4.0) Gasoline (4.0) Electricity (1.7) Electricity (1.7) Fuel oil and other fuels (0.6) Fuel oil and other fuels (0.6) Natural gas (0.4) Natural gas (0.4) Services excluding shelter services (28.5) Services excluding shelter services (28.5) Regulation-affected services (8.5) Regulation-affected services (8.5) Other services (8.1) Other services (8.1) Food services (6.9) Food services (6.9) Recreation and travel (5.0) Recreation and travel (5.0) Shelter services (26.0) Shelter services (26.0) Rent (7.5) Rent (7.5) Other shelter services (6.9) Other shelter services (6.9) House-price-related services (6.4) House-price-related services (6.4) Mortgage interest costs (5.2) Mortgage interest costs (5.2) Share at or below 1% Share at or below 1% Historical average (1995–2019)—Share at or below 1% Historical average (1995–2019)—Share at or below 1% Share at or above 3% Share at or above 3% Historical average (1995–2019)—Share at or above 3% Historical average (1995–2019)—Share at or above 3% Composite PMI Composite PMI Energy commodities Energy commodities Non-energy commodities Non-energy commodities Non-commodities Non-commodities Export growth Export growth Consumption Consumption Housing Housing Business fixed investment Business fixed investment Government Government Exports Exports Imports and inventories Imports and inventories GDP growth GDP growth Exports Exports Imports and inventories Imports and inventories Final domestic demand Final domestic demand GDP growth GDP growth Quarter-over-quarter growth at annualized rates Quarter-over-quarter growth at annualized rates Growth over the past four quarters Growth over the past four quarters BLP, 1-year-ahead BLP, 1-year-ahead BLP, 2-year-ahead BLP, 2-year-ahead BLP, 5-year-ahead BLP, 5-year-ahead BOS, over the next 2 years BOS, over the next 2 years Producer price index—stage 1 intermediate inputs Producer price index—stage 1 intermediate inputs Producer price index—stage 4 intermediate inputs Producer price index—stage 4 intermediate inputs Personal consumption expenditures price index—goods excluding food and energy Personal consumption expenditures price index—goods excluding food and energy Refined energy prices Refined energy prices Canadian regular gasoline (retail) Canadian regular gasoline (retail) Canadian diesel (retail) Canadian diesel (retail) US jet fuel US jet fuel Energy commodity prices Energy commodity prices West Texas Intermediate West Texas Intermediate US natural gas US natural gas Non-energy commodity prices Non-energy commodity prices BCNE BCNE Canadian canola Canadian canola US corn US corn US wheat US wheat North America Fertilizer Price Index North America Fertilizer Price Index US polymer-grade propylene US polymer-grade propylene UK primary aluminum UK primary aluminum Shipping costs Shipping costs Rotterdam to New York Rotterdam to New York Shanghai to Los Angeles Shanghai to Los Angeles Shipping and trade disruption Shipping and trade disruption Halifax port import volume Halifax port import volume Vancouver port import volume Vancouver port import volume Strait of Hormuz volume Strait of Hormuz volume Unemployment rate Unemployment rate Job-vacancies-to-unemployment ratio Job-vacancies-to-unemployment ratio Job separation rate Job separation rate Job finding rate Job finding rate Employment rate Employment rate Average hours worked Average hours worked Oil and gas investment Oil and gas investment Non–oil and gas investment Non–oil and gas investment Business investment growth Business investment growth Consumption Consumption AI investment AI investment Non-AI investment Non-AI investment Other components of GDP Other components of GDP GDP GDP Core goods Core goods Core services Core services Energy inflation Energy inflation Food inflation Food inflation Total inflation Total inflation Share of real global GDP (%) - United States Share of real global GDP (%) - United States Projected growth (%) - United States Projected growth (%) - United States Share of real global GDP (%) - Euro area Share of real global GDP (%) - Euro area Projected growth (%) - Euro area Projected growth (%) - Euro area Share of real global GDP (%) - China Share of real global GDP (%) - China Projected growth (%) - China Projected growth (%) - China Share of real global GDP (%) - World Share of real global GDP (%) - World Projected growth (%) - World Projected growth (%) - World Consumption Consumption Housing Housing Government Government Business fixed investment Business fixed investment Subtotal: final domestic demand Subtotal: final domestic demand Exports Exports Imports Imports Inventories Inventories GDP GDP Memo items (percentage change):Range for potential output Memo items (percentage change):Range for potential output Memo items (percentage change):Range for potential output Memo items (percentage change):Range for potential output Memo items (percentage change):CPI inflation Memo items (percentage change):CPI inflation CPI inflation (year-over-year percentage change) CPI inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Core inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Core inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Real GDP (year-over-year percentage change) Real GDP (year-over-year percentage change) Real GDP (quarter-over-quarter percentage change at annual rates) Real GDP (quarter-over-quarter percentage change at annual rates) 40.641.230.630.9 36.941.228.830.9 36.941.229.430.9 44.441.229.430.9 33.141.233.830.9 40.041.232.530.9 38.141.232.530.9 36.941.233.830.9 35.641.235.630.9 35.041.239.430.9 36.941.234.430.9 38.341.230.930.9 -4.0-0.4-0.837.741.230.930.9 -5.5-0.7-0.539.541.227.830.9 -8.3-0.8-0.639.541.227.830.9 -13.7-1.7-1.340.141.230.230.9 -12.3-1.2-1.540.141.232.730.9 -8.4-1.2-1.739.541.229.030.9 -6.6-1.0-1.043.841.226.530.9 -4.1-0.5-0.444.441.222.230.9 -0.50.1-0.446.341.222.230.9 0.10.3-0.542.041.227.830.9 2.10.4-0.243.241.226.530.9 6.41.00.145.741.228.430.9 9.12.60.42.350.041.224.130.9 15.04.20.145.141.228.430.9 22.56.00.640.741.232.730.9 35.79.32.42.840.141.232.130.9 44.111.33.737.741.238.330.9 42.712.34.335.841.242.030.9 43.713.34.03.035.841.243.830.9 43.314.73.935.841.249.430.9 40.114.84.230.941.247.530.9 42.716.15.23.729.041.248.830.9 43.717.55.64.43.32.626.541.251.930.9 36.817.36.24.43.22.624.741.256.830.9 1.11.711.013.832.817.36.93.818.541.262.330.9 28.816.57.74.73.42.816.741.264.830.9 27.016.17.516.741.266.030.9 0.51.29.311.025.215.56.45.43.62.64.817.941.268.530.9 21.814.75.75.13.32.616.041.273.530.9 21.513.95.75.53.42.514.841.274.130.9 -0.32.37.08.914.211.85.55.63.52.64.211.741.275.330.9 10.410.35.65.63.42.610.541.277.830.9 9.39.55.75.03.12.510.541.278.430.9 -0.72.7-10.3-8.34.97.94.74.83.02.54.013.041.277.830.9 0.86.43.94.73.12.314.241.277.830.9 -0.75.43.24.73.12.513.641.274.130.9 -0.62.9-3.7-1.3-1.04.02.74.32.92.43.9-2.1-2.4-1.3-0.2-2.1-0.615.441.276.530.9 -1.33.52.34.63.22.716.741.274.730.9 -4.82.12.54.12.92.619.841.273.530.9 -0.72.6-6.2-4.3-7.60.62.53.82.72.73.5-1.8-1.7-1.0-0.2-1.8-0.521.641.270.430.9 -11.4-1.22.53.92.92.622.441.267.730.9 -13.1-1.61.73.82.82.423.041.267.730.9 -0.30.8-10.3-9.9-11.1-1.41.23.52.82.73.3-1.3-1.0-1.00.3-1.4-0.123.641.262.730.9 -9.0-1.60.63.82.82.523.641.265.830.9 -8.4-1.70.23.42.72.526.141.259.030.9 0.00.4-1.6-1.3-7.1-1.70.43.72.62.43.2-0.8-0.7-1.11.5-1.00.328.041.255.930.9 -7.4-1.80.23.52.82.632.341.249.730.9 -6.3-1.60.03.42.72.528.041.252.830.9 0.8-0.11.42.1-1.53.41.93.62.93.220.30.31.70.50.02.847.90.60.7-0.40.9-6.5-1.5-0.53.22.72.43.01.02.13.1-0.5-0.6-0.70.5-0.50.12.00.10.30.42.82.10.3-0.42.032.941.245.330.9 3.32.82.9249.2-5.8-1.6-0.43.02.62.637.941.241.630.9 3.32.92.8250.3-6.4-1.7-0.53.12.52.442.241.238.530.9 1.00.14.65.7-1.93.41.53.02.72.520.20.01.70.60.22.751.7-5.3-1.4-0.53.32.62.53.02.89.512.30.0-0.1-1.11.4-0.10.342.241.235.430.9 3.22.92.8252.2-4.3-0.9-1.03.32.72.644.141.237.330.9 3.12.72.8250.9-3.6-0.8-0.82.92.52.546.641.232.930.9 0.80.24.96.01.92.74.62.82.52.520.3-0.11.60.7-0.32.150.23.32.4-2.3-0.4-0.42.92.52.52.5-1.0-8.7-9.70.30.2-1.21.50.50.248.441.228.630.9 2.62.02.2251.0-3.5-0.4-0.52.82.62.647.241.228.030.9 2.61.62.2249.6-3.80.1-0.32.62.42.547.841.228.030.9 0.50.09.510.01.01.62.62.82.02.220.240.000.04-0.38-0.10.3-0.11.30.5-0.11.950.02.83.1-3.60.3-0.42.42.32.42.5-2.210.17.90.60.5-0.42.20.70.41.92.1244.741.228.630.9 2.71.92.0248.3-2.21.0-0.22.72.52.747.841.224.830.9 2.51.81.8249.6-1.91.3-0.22.82.62.752.241.223.630.9 0.695100.00100.000.60.44.15.074.64-0.41.51.22.71.91.720.730.000.01-0.450.30.30.11.10.60.22.350.20.0-1.1-0.4-1.42.93.1-0.81.20.22.82.42.52.6-0.30.1-0.20.50.7-1.72.30.60.51.80.30.2-0.22.10.042.45-0.050.122.562.1-0.50.11.92.32.222.11.55.03.51.30.00.80.02.1-0.50.10.01.92.32.32.150.941.231.730.9 0.69499.92100.0375.93 0.69299.7599.8676.51 0.698100.1099.9476.30 0.696100.18100.0377.05 0.696100.05100.1076.16 0.695100.03100.0976.92 0.693100.06100.3179.76 0.695100.22100.5581.01 0.697100.28100.4179.92 0.697100.40100.4182.03 0.695100.15100.2781.29 0.69199.8399.9880.79 0.699100.20100.0180.15 0.69899.8999.6579.29 0.69699.7599.4279.00 0.69599.7199.3578.29 0.69799.6398.9978.50 0.69699.4898.9877.08 0.69499.5299.1277.49 0.69399.2398.8476.58 0.69099.2898.8176.87 0.68898.9898.6776.76 2.82.62.6250.2-0.51.60.33.32.92.742.941.236.630.9 0.69398.3498.1875.96 0.69899.8499.4476.20 0.699100.1499.6974.61 0.699100.0199.6074.29 0.700100.2499.9074.66 0.699100.1899.9475.87 0.700100.2499.9477.00 0.699100.30100.0075.18 0.705100.52100.0775.02 0.705100.6999.9374.74 0.705100.6999.9375.22 0.704100.5899.8875.84 0.702100.4899.8876.04 0.705100.4899.6676.48 0.703100.3699.5574.43 0.701100.2599.4574.78 0.69999.8299.0373.02 0.69799.4898.7372.53 0.69399.1798.6374.04 0.69199.1998.7973.18 2.82.32.5250.91.72.10.03.62.82.538.541.242.230.9 0.69099.1098.5571.62 0.69598.6298.0171.04 0.69798.8897.7969.30 0.69999.1297.8869.46 0.69598.6297.3170.36 0.69398.2997.0669.28 0.69398.0096.6569.56 0.69698.4397.0870.95 0.69298.3397.0069.88 0.69698.3296.8770.58 0.70098.8097.2471.07 0.69998.8397.2970.56 0.69898.7497.2870.78 0.69898.7697.4272.00 0.69798.8297.5472.16 0.69899.0597.8173.00 0.70099.1297.8173.02 0.70199.4798.2673.79 0.69999.2398.0774.03 0.69899.2498.0873.63 0.69598.7897.6574.74 0.69998.9897.841.41.33.56.174.493.40.94.33.11.72.620.30-0.61-0.020.03-0.30.40.41.00.8-0.81.750.4-1.02.01.92.60.23.72.92.42.70.8-1.5-0.60.81.2-1.32.20.90.40.132.29-0.120.142.441.72.7242.241.240.430.9 0.70399.1097.9074.95 0.709100.2198.4470.14 0.70399.6898.3665.58 0.70299.9898.9664.21 0.701100.2799.3262.82 0.710100.4899.4465.48 0.715100.9099.3863.33 0.721101.3599.4164.76 0.721101.2899.2464.88 0.717100.9398.9364.67 0.721101.0698.8865.85 0.723101.1998.9367.96 0.722101.1998.9367.96 0.722101.1198.5566.26 0.724101.1598.6667.44 0.720100.9798.6066.12 0.722100.9198.5166.55 0.722101.0398.6866.87 0.723101.0398.5965.86 0.723100.9998.4964.25 0.725101.2998.8363.12 0.722101.3199.0162.133.01.72.5250.22.12.50.63.32.92.837.941.237.930.9 0.724101.3898.9161.29 0.723101.2098.6760.23 0.726101.2998.6362.15 0.723101.2598.6561.12 0.718100.6698.2562.84 0.718100.4698.0263.91 0.716100.3198.1864.96 0.718100.3298.0266.63 0.715100.2097.7766.09 0.716100.1097.7264.53 0.716100.2397.9265.41 0.717100.2397.9265.54 0.719100.2797.7365.38 0.721100.6797.9164.91 0.722100.6397.9864.44 0.728101.2098.3164.78 0.728101.3198.3564.74 0.724101.1498.3264.09 0.723100.9098.2164.90 0.724100.9098.0864.15 0.728101.3698.6163.90 3.01.92.5250.62.02.61.02.92.72.636.641.239.130.9 0.729101.5098.5464.63 0.729101.4798.5965.63 0.731101.6698.6564.86 0.731101.6998.6065.34 0.730101.6098.6366.47 0.730101.5398.4767.04 0.732101.5698.5166.87 0.731101.5798.4269.77 0.735101.7198.3269.36 0.736101.9798.7174.23 0.737102.1498.7673.23 0.731102.0098.8076.45 0.730101.5398.4076.70 0.730101.2998.2678.85 0.728101.1998.1177.01 0.728101.0798.0771.48 0.728101.0297.7167.14 0.729100.8497.5467.68 0.733101.3197.7767.73 0.731101.0997.6067.77 0.735101.1897.5767.61 0.733101.1897.571.81.63.16.567.11-1.10.3-0.73.11.72.520.57-0.61-0.060.100.00.40.50.80.8-0.52.050.91.91.72.53.01.12.82.62.52.5-2.6-2.2-4.80.91.6-0.92.31.10.50.242.300.010.162.712.02.6240.441.237.330.9 0.736101.2897.6169.11 0.736101.6697.9968.80 0.735101.3697.6568.30 0.731101.2097.6869.58 0.732101.0797.5770.15 0.731100.9297.4170.19 0.732101.0697.5968.64 0.730101.0997.6670.36 0.729101.1097.7469.21 0.729101.1597.9268.71 0.731101.1297.9068.52 0.727100.9297.7869.52 0.729101.0297.7769.28 0.731101.0797.6869.21 0.735101.4197.9468.59 0.736101.4897.9068.51 0.733101.2797.6569.18 0.730100.8897.4168.44 0.728101.0397.7970.04 0.726100.8297.7372.51 0.723100.7497.8073.24 0.722100.6497.8472.53 0.725100.7997.8169.673.01.92.4251.03.23.41.13.32.92.738.541.239.130.9 0.726100.7997.8168.76 0.726100.6997.5767.64 0.728100.7797.4766.89 0.728100.7297.4166.43 0.727100.6797.3266.59 0.726100.5697.3366.63 0.726100.4897.1266.12 0.727100.2996.7165.63 0.724100.2296.8366.84 0.724100.1196.6265.85 0.724100.2096.8266.60 0.72199.9396.5965.79 0.72199.8096.4466.84 0.71999.6896.4167.67 0.72399.7196.1967.73 0.72199.8696.3568.80 0.72399.9096.4567.22 0.725100.1196.7168.05 0.727100.3496.7468.62 0.728100.4796.8868.12 0.727100.4796.8868.153.12.42.6251.24.43.81.22.92.72.638.541.237.930.9 0.725100.3296.9169.14 0.725100.2096.7367.60 0.724100.0496.6566.99 0.72399.7696.1465.50 0.72499.8196.1466.02 0.72299.6896.0266.39 0.72199.5295.8467.49 0.72399.5195.7766.37 0.72299.4795.7366.99 0.72699.6395.7467.44 0.72899.8495.7768.47 0.72699.7195.6167.95 0.72599.6295.6867.44 0.72699.8596.0566.68 0.72499.5995.7466.57 0.72399.4195.5367.63 0.71999.2195.5369.31 0.71799.1595.6269.42 0.71798.9895.4070.13 0.71998.9795.2467.97 0.71898.9795.2467.02 0.71898.7695.002.12.5-0.93.765.353.7-0.92.83.02.22.620.44-0.61-0.110.470.20.50.50.71.0-0.42.252.5-1.00.74.53.91.12.92.72.62.64.3-0.63.80.51.8-1.21.50.61.00.322.220.110.162.802.22.822.22.80.7-1.039.141.234.230.9 0.71698.7195.0464.11 0.71798.7295.0064.53 0.71798.8195.1665.47 0.71798.9495.3965.45 0.71799.0595.5966.25 0.71398.8395.4765.22 0.71498.9195.6462.73 0.71298.9195.6463.32 0.71298.6495.4262.39 0.71298.4795.0961.91 0.71198.3194.8361.06 0.71398.4194.9361.29 0.71298.3794.8761.01 0.71398.5795.1561.32 0.71598.8195.4362.59 0.71598.8495.4765.99 0.71498.6795.2865.94 0.71598.7495.2965.62 0.71798.9495.4564.40 0.71799.2695.7764.92 0.71599.0395.7765.00 0.71498.8995.7065.07 2.92.22.621.21.7-0.20.41.23.30.11.7-0.3-0.9-1.0-0.90.3-0.4-1.20.61.62.51.2-2.70.67.11.5-1.60.552.84.13.71.23.22.82.836.041.242.230.9 0.71198.5995.3964.89 0.70998.5495.4964.44 0.70998.3195.2763.52 0.70898.2395.0863.38 0.71298.5395.3163.63 0.71398.7695.4964.06 0.71398.7695.4965.16 0.71498.8095.4662.71 0.71298.5895.1463.01 0.71398.5695.1664.39 0.71198.6295.3164.20 0.71598.9195.6164.89 0.71298.7395.5563.51 0.70998.5195.3863.38 0.70998.5095.4962.56 0.70998.4095.3463.37 0.70998.2495.0462.48 0.71298.4895.2063.13 0.71398.6295.3063.34 0.71698.9795.6163.20 0.71498.9095.4763.172.72.43.021.31.30.30.91.43.50.01.80.0-0.4-1.5-1.30.2-0.7-1.22.01.80.88.5-1.60.57.61.1-1.80.351.55.33.82.03.02.92.831.141.245.330.9 0.71698.8995.5162.45 0.71798.9895.4662.67 0.71698.9895.4663.26 0.72499.6796.1463.75 0.72299.8996.4362.49 0.72299.8696.4061.94 0.72599.8896.3862.21 0.726100.0596.3361.28 0.726100.1196.4061.12 0.726100.0396.2560.56 0.727100.1696.3458.92 0.725100.0296.3059.68 0.726100.0796.3659.82 0.725100.0896.4260.47 0.727100.2396.4962.07 0.731100.4396.5862.38 0.731100.5396.5662.24 0.731100.5396.5662.24 0.731100.5396.5660.64 0.730100.5196.6061.94 0.730100.4396.5061.92 0.729100.3996.5060.85 0.728100.3996.505.83.38.317.460.852.0-0.61.42.52.33.020.50-0.61-0.170.480.20.50.50.51.1-0.42.21.41.30.50.91.34.2-0.52.0-0.30.0-1.7-1.60.4-1.1-1.22.70.50.513.9-1.20.16.40.8-1.80.251.31.6-0.40.41.60.8-0.60.0-0.7-0.20.5-0.1-0.1-0.16.34.11.92.92.82.82.6-4.85.00.20.21.8-1.31.70.90.91.30.50.30.22.40.502.280.170.153.101.40.5-1.20.72.22.722.40.44.72.80.9-0.20.50.21.40.5-1.0-0.20.70.81.62.52.22.4-0.1-0.128.041.244.730.9 0.728100.1196.1960.75 0.72699.8995.9861.760.0-1.3-1.0-0.90.0-1.0-0.30.00.60.2-0.3-0.50.2-1.20.90.0-1.1-1.00.00.10.5-0.2 0.72499.7495.8460.70 0.72199.5395.6759.96 0.72199.2995.5161.99 0.71999.1295.3863.34 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