Monetary Policy Report—January 2026 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=250907 Hiring intentions Historical average Trade balance as a share of GDP Consumption per person Population Consumption growth Year-over-year percentage change 6-month annualized rate 3-month annualized rate 1% to 3% target lower 1% to 3% target upper Total CPI Total CPI excluding indirect taxes Target Counter-tariffs Costs Removal of consumer carbon tax Output gap Other Total CPI inflation Goods excluding food and energy (27.8) Durable goods (12.8) Non-durable goods (7.9) Semi-durable goods (7.1) Food in stores (10.9) Other (3.0) Fruits and vegetables (2.6) Meat and seafood (2.2) Bakery and cereal products (1.6) Dairy products and eggs (1.5) Energy (5.8) Gasoline (3.2) Electricity (1.7) Fuel oil and other fuels (0.5) Natural gas (0.5) Services excluding shelter services (28.5) Regulation-affected services (8.3) Other services (8.2) Food services (6.8) Recreation and travel (5.1) Shelter services (27.1) Rent (7.4) Other shelter services (7.0) House-price-related services (6.9) Mortgage interest costs (5.8) Inflation target range lower Inflation target range upper Total CPI Total CPI excluding indirect taxes Target Manufacturing output Services sector business activity Private sectors with limited reliance on exports to the United States (70% of total employment, 2025) Private sectors with high reliance on exports to the United States (8% of total employment, 2025) Public sector (22% of total employment, 2025) S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite MSCI World, excluding the United States Non-commodity exports Total goods, excluding gold GDP per person Population GDP growth Final domestic demand Net exports and inventories GDP growth January 2026 Report October 2025 Report Cumulative shock to the level of GDP January 2026 Report January 2025 Report West Texas Intermediate Brent Share of non–US origin goods re-exported from the United States and imported into Canada* Historical average (2021–24) Lower range of the scenarios in the July Report Upper range of the scenarios in the July Report October Report January Report Consumption AI-related investment Other components of GDP GDP growth Rest of the world United States Total Canada Euro area China Mexico ASEAN Other Share of real global GDP (%) - United States Share of real global GDP (%) - United States Projected growth (%) - United States Projected growth (%) - United States Share of real global GDP (%) - Euro area Share of real global GDP (%) - Euro area Projected growth (%) - Euro area Projected growth (%) - Euro area Share of real global GDP (%) - China Share of real global GDP (%) - China Projected growth (%) - China Projected growth (%) - China Share of real global GDP (%) - World Share of real global GDP (%) - World Projected growth (%) - World Projected growth (%) - World Consumption Consumption Housing Housing Government Government Business fixed investment Business fixed investment Subtotal: final domestic demand Subtotal: final domestic demand Exports Exports Imports Imports Inventories Inventories GDP GDP Memo items (percentage change):Range for potential output Memo items (percentage change):Range for potential output Memo items (percentage change):Range for potential output Memo items (percentage change):Range for potential output Memo items (percentage change):CPI inflation Memo items (percentage change):CPI inflation CPI inflation (year-over-year percentage change) CPI inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Core inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Core inflation (year-over-year percentage change) Real GDP (year-over-year percentage change) Real GDP (year-over-year percentage change) Real GDP (quarter-over-quarter percentage change at annual rates) Real GDP (quarter-over-quarter percentage change at annual rates) 3134 1734 1134 134 2634 3834 3134 2234 3434 1834 3334 2734 3134 3234 3334 3834 3934 3234 5034 5034 4334 3534 4134 4034 4534 3434 3734 3034 3334 3334 2834 -834 -134 2234 2734 4134 3834 4034 2534 4134 3734 5334 3834 4534 4334 5334 2634 2834 3234 3534 3034 4234 4634 2834 4434 3134 20343.7 26342.8 28343.2 12343.2 26343.0 21342.4 31342.4 37341.1 38341.8 58341.9 34341.5 40341.7 45340.3 51340.7 39340.3 41341.1 35341.1 36340.8 31341.0 43340.7 2834-0.1 23343.4 26342.8 43343.1 45342.927.5726.28 27.8126.28 27.9326.28 65342.027.3226.28 25.4526.28 26.3126.28 67342.325.5626.28 24.9326.28 25.5226.28 77343.127.2126.28 26.2726.28 27.4226.28 63343.24.213.460.1828.1126.28 27.4626.28 26.3926.28 66343.44.633.800.3825.3626.28 24.3826.28 25.3526.28 47343.43.272.440.5924.0126.28 24.6526.28 25.4126.28 35342.50.25-0.570.7925.7026.28 26.0926.28 28.2226.28 45342.3-1.03.12.15.95.925.95.924.283.920.8826.6126.28103.3103.2104.298.4104.099.71313 5.25.325.25.3226.6626.2896.997.498.697.397.4101.91313 4.34.324.34.3229.1726.2898.899.8101.2101.596.888.61313 34342.6-2.83.10.24.44.324.44.320.640.830.8327.8526.2898.696.5104.096.499.097.01313 3.43.323.43.3225.2426.28101.598.0104.6101.096.3101.31313 2.82.722.82.7227.0026.2897.5101.398.1101.598.1100.51313 27341.8-2.63.50.93.33.123.33.120.20-0.551.0227.5226.2894.1101.897.199.198.298.01313 4.03.924.03.9225.5426.28103.1104.495.2102.0103.8101.41313 3.83.723.83.7225.6226.28100.396.299.898.798.7102.61313 21341.7-1.03.92.93.13.023.13.020.210.700.9025.1126.28104.3103.1103.7102.0102.6104.41313 3.13.023.13.0226.7126.28104.797.898.1102.1103.2105.91313 3.43.323.43.3226.5826.2897.0100.595.5100.0101.998.81313 32341.9-1.53.41.92.92.722.92.7246.648.4447.02.70.32.92.952.151.0997.798.871.6577.0427.2226.2898.4101.896.2102.0101.4101.6-0.53.42.913132.80.85.03.31.20.01.0-0.12.20.3-0.2-0.22.03.23.22.4 70.3875.89 72.7078.25 72.1977.59 73.8178.76 70.7776.12 72.2477.59 71.3776.80 72.0277.41 72.6878.29 72.6878.15 72.4078.29 72.5677.88 74.0879.10 73.4178.56 75.1980.06 74.3779.55 75.0980.04 77.3682.43 78.0183.55 76.7882.40 77.8282.87 75.8581.71 2.82.722.82.7246.650.273.8278.7027.4826.28100.3101.2101.4109.1108.7100.11313 72.2877.33 72.7877.99 73.3178.59 73.8679.21 76.2281.63 76.8482.19 76.9282.00 77.8782.77 76.6481.60 78.0382.86 79.1983.47 79.1983.56 78.1882.34 77.9183.03 78.6183.67 76.4981.62 77.5882.53 78.8783.65 78.5483.68 78.2683.62 2.92.722.92.7247.151.579.9783.5527.3026.2892.599.197.398.5102.990.01313 78.7482.80 78.1582.04 79.1382.96 78.9382.96 78.0182.08 77.9382.21 77.5681.92 79.7284.03 81.2685.42 81.0485.34 82.7286.89 83.4787.38 81.6885.95 81.0785.78 80.6385.43 81.9586.75 81.6286.25 81.3586.09 83.1787.48 83.1787.48 26342.4-1.93.41.52.72.522.72.5247.353.3450.93.00.33.33.302.551.2898.599.383.7187.4226.2226.2899.8115.0100.1109.8108.9105.1-0.13.43.31313 85.1588.92 85.4389.35 86.5990.65 86.9191.17 86.4390.38 85.2389.42 86.2190.48 85.0289.74 85.6690.45 85.4190.10 85.3690.02 82.6987.29 82.7387.11 83.1487.29 82.8587.00 83.3688.42 82.8188.02 83.5789.01 83.8589.50 82.6388.40 81.9387.86 2.92.722.92.7249.353.279.0083.4425.4826.2899.0101.9102.0106.8109.7108.51313 78.9583.67 78.1182.96 78.4883.33 78.3883.16 78.9983.58 79.2683.88 78.2682.79 79.1283.36 78.0282.38 78.6382.75 79.2383.27 80.0683.98 79.8083.71 79.2682.88 77.5781.90 76.8781.36 77.7282.12 77.7283.10 79.8384.22 79.2383.60 77.9181.86 76.9981.62 2.72.522.72.5246.152.825.9326.2896.9100.699.2104.9110.3107.61313 74.2278.36 73.2577.52 74.0778.41 75.5579.87 75.5379.62 77.7481.63 77.9081.92 78.5082.60 78.6282.75 78.4582.62 80.3384.25 81.5785.33 81.5785.07 82.1785.71 80.7385.24 81.6386.01 80.8385.01 80.9085.25 81.7486.39 81.5486.41 28343.31.92.74.62.52.42-0.9-0.8-0.4-0.5-0.10.40.2-0.2-0.80.0-0.3-0.2-0.8-0.2-0.6-0.2-0.61.41.9-2.14.115.31.5-1.45.42.52.4245.651.9447.13.10.23.33.322.411.5099.399.683.3886.6023.8626.28101.5109.3109.9106.8116.2114.30.62.73.31313 82.8186.24 83.8887.34 83.8887.43 83.1686.54 82.3385.75 81.4184.66 82.1085.08 82.6285.40 82.2185.03 81.9184.85 80.7683.73 82.8585.08 82.8285.11 80.1382.63 79.7882.40 76.9681.01 77.5981.71 78.2882.37 77.1681.13 75.8179.78 74.7378.63 77.9180.72 2.01.82-1.1-0.8-0.6-1.40.10.60.2-0.2-0.70.7-1.0-0.7-1.0-0.8-0.7-0.4-1.11.51.1-2.43.916.01.3-1.44.82.01.8245.852.976.3179.5224.3926.2894.5107.5102.6107.8111.2111.81313 73.5276.81 72.9476.30 73.2076.48 75.2378.33 76.1979.16 76.8479.66 80.0682.30 78.3580.69 76.9879.76 78.1681.04 76.6579.68 74.3777.66 74.0477.20 71.9376.05 73.0177.22 74.8379.02 77.4281.43 75.5379.55 74.5278.65 75.9179.94 73.5578.80 1.61.52-0.9-0.5-0.5-1.50.10.80.1-0.2-0.80.6-1.4-1.1-0.7-1.4-0.6-0.4-0.41.41.3-2.93.514.60.8-1.34.31.61.5244.951.40.024.6926.2899.0112.1106.5111.3122.1108.41313 73.5577.52 70.3473.75 69.2072.70 69.1572.69 67.6771.06 68.7171.84 65.7569.19 67.3170.61 68.9771.97 68.6571.61 70.0972.75 71.1973.70 70.9173.65 71.9574.88 71.9274.49 70.3773.90 71.5675.17 69.6973.46 67.6771.60 68.1871.98 68.1771.77 33343.91.01.62.62.01.820.00.20.00.0-0.3-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.50.20.70.3-0.1-0.50.9-0.8-0.6-0.1-1.1-0.7-1.1-0.81.31.1-3.83.212.81.2-1.23.82.01.8245.851.6453.0-0.64.2-1.42.82.842.061.69100.0100.069.8373.5625.4826.282.60.0-0.71.999.1105.1102.8108.7119.0113.61.21.62.813131.92.63.1 70.1073.90 73.7177.62 74.3878.05 77.1480.93 73.5777.18 73.2476.58 75.8579.40 75.5679.04 73.8377.46 70.5874.25 70.3974.22 70.6774.45 69.2273.06 70.5674.29 72.0976.04 70.7774.96 70.1974.38 71.7876.05 67.3871.42 67.2171.12 68.6172.55 69.2673.16 1.91.72-0.9-0.6-0.5-1.60.21.1-0.1-0.1-0.40.7-0.6-0.3-0.3-0.9-0.6-1.3-1.01.01.0-3.63.113.41.1-1.33.41.91.7245.149.5-1.269.4973.1027.1526.2897.1112.2105.3109.3123.0114.11313 71.4775.08 71.9975.53 71.6974.92 72.3675.63 70.3873.87 68.0471.83 68.1271.89 68.4372.28 68.7072.56 67.0271.04 69.1673.30 69.3973.31 68.8772.81 70.1074.23 71.2475.17 68.9473.01 68.7772.81 68.7272.83 68.7273.28 68.0072.94 1.82.22-1.5-0.6-0.8-2.7-0.20.0-0.10.0-0.80.7-0.30.0-0.3-0.7-0.6-0.8-0.40.8-6.00.52.912.31.0-1.13.01.82.2244.351.6100.00100.00100.001.226.0626.28104.3102.3105.4108.3127.1128.91313 68.1071.83 69.9473.62 68.5472.31 68.3072.09 67.2071.12 68.3772.14 68.5972.19 70.2973.52 70.0273.41 71.2974.49 70.7173.91 70.0873.19 70.5873.39 69.9172.88 69.4672.94 69.2472.63 70.1073.58 70.1073.58 69.6273.26 70.6074.17 70.9974.39 71.7274.64 19344.2-0.71.50.91.92.620.00.80.00.0-0.40.3-0.80.0-1.4-0.8-0.2-0.20.1-0.2-0.50.60.30.3-0.6-0.10.1-2.3-0.21.1-11.0-0.82.610.51.2-1.02.61.92.6247.151.3100.6599.5399.810.00.0464.34.7-0.62.82.22.182.031.73100.5100.571.7274.6426.6026.280.40.8-1.9-0.6112.4120.2111.0111.9130.9144.00.71.52.213130.02.21.55.03.51.20.10.60.01.9-0.90.20.51.71.92.72.1 -0.20.773.1375.930.0 1.01.473.9676.51-0.2 1.01.4-0.2 1.01.4-0.2 1.61.173.5676.300.8 0.50.874.2577.051.1 0.61.373.3276.160.5 0.61.473.9276.920.5 -0.90.276.5779.76-0.7 -0.90.2-0.7 -0.90.2-0.7 -0.8-0.878.8281.01-1.5 -0.7-0.677.5079.92-1.1 1.20.280.0482.030.1 0.90.578.6881.290.9 2.01.477.8880.791.2 2.01.41.2 2.01.41.2 2.01.877.8880.152.3 2.82.275.8979.292.6 3.52.475.4479.003.1 4.02.974.6278.293.4 3.73.074.6678.504.2 3.73.04.2 3.73.04.2 2.22.373.1777.084.2 3.22.873.7777.493.8 2.73.072.6276.584.3 3.24.472.7376.875.2 2.73.372.5376.764.9 2.62.920.00.6-1.10.40.30.30.20.0-0.11.10.00.1-0.6-0.3-0.10.21.21.5-5.50.82.39.41.1-0.92.32.62.9248.950.6100.6898.1599.972.73.3-0.527.5026.28105.1124.9100.3112.2128.9138.713134.9 2.73.34.9 1.92.173.1675.963.0 2.72.272.7076.204.0 3.13.471.0374.615.2 3.43.370.6174.295.7 2.52.971.0074.665.2 2.52.95.2 2.52.95.2 3.13.872.3275.875.4 3.23.773.3277.005.6 2.93.471.3775.185.7 4.03.971.2975.027.4 4.03.170.7474.747.8 4.03.17.8 4.03.17.8 4.03.170.7475.228.1 4.23.771.8575.848.3 4.53.672.2576.047.4 4.03.272.5776.487.5 2.21.770.4074.437.4 2.21.77.4 2.21.77.4 1.71.770.7074.787.5 1.31.968.9373.027.6 1.32.468.6272.538.2 -0.31.670.3574.047.2 1.22.769.7673.186.6 2.32.120.40.8-0.40.20.51.00.30.3-0.71.1-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.50.2-0.50.51.61.0-3.52.07.90.8-0.92.02.32.1250.551.0100.5698.2699.961.22.70.627.0026.2897.3168.795.3113.8139.1132.813136.6 1.22.76.6 -0.51.168.3771.628.1 -1.8-0.668.2671.046.8 -0.70.666.3169.309.1 -2.4-0.666.3669.469.7 -1.90.167.0470.369.2 -1.90.19.2 -1.90.19.2 -4.5-1.466.0369.287.8 -5.3-1.966.2569.566.8 -4.8-1.267.6870.957.4 -6.1-2.166.5569.886.8 -4.1-0.767.1870.587.9 -4.1-0.77.9 -4.1-0.77.9 -3.50.267.5871.079.3 -4.5-0.166.9070.569.8 -3.51.467.1670.789.8 -3.71.368.2672.009.5 -3.61.068.2872.168.9 -3.61.08.9 -3.61.08.9 -1.92.369.1173.008.6 -1.82.569.0073.029.3 -2.91.869.6573.798.7 -3.21.869.9274.038.4 -5.10.169.3673.637.5 -5.10.17.5 -5.10.17.5 -4.60.871.4874.745.5 23343.73.10.94.11.72.320.10.2-0.6-0.10.1-0.30.41.1-0.6-0.40.81.70.50.7-0.70.4-1.9-1.7-0.3-1.2-1.10.60.02.71.6-1.31.98.31.1-0.91.71.72.3251.550.1100.7197.18100.29-4.21.2428.4-8.33.4-5.3-1.8-1.85-1.581.66100.1101.071.2074.4926.8626.281.71.21.03.885.4114.680.6107.2139.3118.3-2.80.9-1.813136.61.73.11.6-1.8 -3.62.371.7174.956.6 -8.2-1.666.9570.146.0 -13.7-6.261.9965.580.2 -13.7-6.20.2 -13.7-6.20.2 -13.9-7.660.7064.21-5.4 -15.3-9.059.5862.82-2.8 -7.2-4.062.3565.48-4.1 -10.4-6.960.0763.330.7 -8.8-4.661.5064.761.3 -8.8-4.61.3 -8.8-4.61.3 -8.1-3.561.5364.883.6 -8.2-2.761.3364.674.9 -10.3-2.562.4765.855.0 -10.2-2.264.6867.965.2 -10.2-2.264.6867.965.4 -10.2-2.25.4 -10.2-2.25.4 -12.3-2.963.0866.266.1 -10.1-1.764.3167.446.4 -8.6-1.062.2766.127.2 -6.70.062.7966.557.9 -6.1-0.163.0266.878.2 -6.1-0.18.2 -6.1-0.18.2 -6.00.362.0565.869.1 -5.50.660.4264.259.4 -5.30.558.2163.129.9 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