Elevated house prices and household debt increase the probability of a decline in GDP over the medium term https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=226998 x Projection for 2024Q1 Probability of negative growth: about 15% Counterfactual projection for 2024Q1 assuming no growth in debt and house prices over the period from 2020Q1 to 2022Q1 Probability of negative growth: about 10% Growth at risk in the projection Growth at risk in the counterfactual projection Expected growth in the projection Expected growth in the counterfactual projection -10.00.00157580000.00157580000.00001111600.0000111160 -9.90.00174950000.00174950000.00001292100.0000129210 -9.80.00194230000.00194230000.00001502200.0000150220 -9.70.00215620000.00215620000.00001746900.0000174690 -9.60.00239350000.00239350000.00002031900.0000203190 -9.50.00265680000.00265680000.00002363900.0000236390 -9.40.00294880000.00294880000.00002750600.0000275060 -9.30.00327260000.00327260000.00003201300.0000320130 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