Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2024 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=237806 Balance of opinion (%) Yes—severe recession Yes—mild recession 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2024Q1 Significant difficulty, currently operating beyond capacity Some difficulty, currently operating at or near capacity Balance of Opinion Investment in Machinery and Equipment - Over the next 12 months, your firm’s investment spending on M&E (compared with the past 12 months) is expected to be… Historical average Balance of Opinion Credit Conditions - Over the past 3 months, how have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed (compared with the previous 3 months)? Historical average Yes (% of firms) Labour Shortages - Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand? Historical average: labour shortages Balance of Opinion Intensity of Labour Shortages - Compared with 12 months ago, are labour shortages generally… Historical average: intensity of labour shortages Balance of opinion * Wage Growth - Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? Historical average: wages (left scale) Average expected wage increase Wage Growth - Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? Historical average: average expected wage increase (right scale) Input prices expected to increase significantly Pre-pandemic average share of firms expecting input prices to increase significantly Output prices expected to increase significantly Pre-pandemic average share of firms expecting output prices to increase significantly Firms planning to make more-frequent-than-normal price increases Firms planning to make larger-than-normal price increases BLP, 1-year-ahead BLP, 2-year-ahead BLP, 5-year-ahead BOS, over the next 2 years -33113 196826 23625 284426 114335 86650 2656-1537 1659-2045 1351-932 -348-3915 -6356-2011 -1535-2529-21 -731-22319 143921116 2338-2919 15401159 236-91923 -331-3112 23415-116 11304-109 7368-1724 233716-429 174437-319 223625-2018 173322-1914 213633-1811 205041-2231 194948-834 354457-528 273466-527 153755-1935 203530-1025 294138-1914 213327-154 74129256 84122246 230182443.6 24401614134.0 203653243.7 -3120-4758-472.2 -1413-5736-521.5 -1217-6512-411.6 316-48-4-72.0 177-49-1262.4 2212-22-132.3 1212-18-10222.5 3620-10-16152.7 2916-6-14163.0 241413-6263.0 302520-24293.2 222512-1373.5 2129205203.2 242721-20143.1 2429187192.9 83317-1072.9 202518-732.9 1222-46-12.6 9200-142.7 73180122.7 192663172.8 21236-892.9 24221-27112.7 201819-11113.1 822-2-322.5 421-14-11-62.3 719-16-1012.2 1417-147-32.1 -318-24-2-42.3 920-2815172.3 919-19-8-52.0 1824-9-5142.4 2428-4-1212.4 35191-2132.61814.5910.810.029.016-1319.2153.1 292531-1223.01114.51210.87.937.616-1319.2153.1 1725383203.01214.51010.89.038.016-1319.2153.1 293035-4253.41414.5910.811.943.616-1319.2153.1 2426359253.41914.51410.811.835.316-1319.2153.1 173436-5183.81914.51410.816.839.616-1319.2153.1 333750-1183.21714.51410.87.947.516-1319.2153.1 25374311233.92114.51410.817.339.816-1319.2153.1 201916-7153.01414.5810.810.021.016-1319.2153.1 202613-673.2614.5810.88.034.016-1319.2153.1 283422-5133.01114.51210.812.937.616-1319.2153.1 113125-3113.21614.5610.89.942.616-1319.2153.1 122818-8102.81114.5410.87.937.616-1319.2153.1 -3013-4119-351.51014.51010.82.025.016-1319.2153.1 225-19-13-212.21714.51510.89.933.716-1319.2153.1 2633-4-1303.32014.51310.814.143.416-1319.2153.1 4022-1-16202.63414.52310.813.931.716-1319.2153.1 2.3 362330-13434.02714.52210.820.041.016-1319.2153.1 2.8 463664-12504.43214.52310.825.738.616-1319.2153.1 3.0 4741742724.83814.53110.828.050.016-1319.2153.1 4.43.32.6 4.43.22.63.8 4240626685.24714.53510.829.751.516-1319.2153.1 4.73.42.8 3.8 37426616615.84714.53610.85.43.62.621.058.016-1319.2153.1 5.13.32.6 5.53.42.54.860 29464412384.92614.52310.85.63.52.65428.048.016-1319.2153.1 5.63.42.652 5.03.12.54.254 20382527314.73014.52310.84.83.02.53917.851.516-1319.2153.1 4.73.12.334 4.73.12.54.036 1931-3010224.72614.52510.84.32.92.4381.043.98.051.016-1319.2153.1 4.63.22.733 4.12.92.63.934 1430-2330-194.51914.51310.83.82.72.7325.128.610.836.316-1319.2153.1 3.92.92.629 3.82.82.43.527 732-4626-504.31814.51610.83.52.82.7263.030.77.039.016-1319.2153.1 3.82.82.525 3.42.72.53.322 2227-4429-224.11414.51210.83.72.62.4186.331.315.230.316-1319.2153.1 3.52.82.611 3.42.72.53.29 022-394-184.11814.51310.83.22.72.4133.024.26.147.516-1319.2153.1 3.02.62.619 3.12.52.43.019 113939404139405256 566061575953454952 192318322933414449 5910211918242628 131412121417211827 645248444337353327 504443282520181311 2030 2230 1928 1823 1317