Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2022 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/?p=230745 Balance of Opinion Investment in Machinery and Equipment - Over the next 12 months, your firm’s investment spending on M&E (compared with the past 12 months) is expected to be… Balance of Opinion Future Employment Level - Over the next 12 months, your firm’s level of employment is expected to be… Increase at a greater rate (%) Input Price Inflation - Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year? Increase at a lesser rate (%) Input Price Inflation - Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year? Balance of Opinion Input Price Inflation - Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year? Increase at a greater rate (%) Output Price Inflation - Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year? Increase at a lesser rate (%) Output Price Inflation - Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year? Balance of Opinion Output Price Inflation - Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year? BOS Indicator The BOS indicator is re-estimated every quarter with the release of the Business Outlook Survey. As such, even though responses to BOS questions are never revised, the entire time series of the indicator is revised after every release. Contributions to BOS indicator from all other indicators Contributions to BOS indicator from capacity indicators* 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q4 Firms reporting an expected sales decline Impediments to investment Drivers of investment Balance Negatively affected by higher interest rates Unaffected or positively affected by higher interest rates Supply chain bottlenecks Labour bottlenecks BLP, 1-year-ahead BLP, 2-year-ahead BLP, 5-year-ahead BOS, 2-year estimate 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 Input prices will increase significantly Output prices will increase significantly Balance of opinion * Wage Growth - Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? Higher Wage Growth - Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? Lower Wage Growth - Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? Average expected wage increase Wage Growth - Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? -3181630-142230-9132513 193536132327181026327 2232225-32922725327 2838241862422226348 11332617929141535394 8364114272622550533 2635282082822637448 1627262062721645483 13312030-102429-5324310 -3172328-52340-17153115 -611939-302530-5112817 -1511245-331541-27-211637 -7262129-82334-1192617 143825178342014162813 2331301217321912193010 15223320132830-292213 234312562526-123318 -3182335-112633-722220 2331734-1726233-0.3961913 11271923-41635-19-0.5192213 7312232-112933-4-0.4324296 23324322202933-40.9429367 17333233-13222101.0619289 22381740-232136-150.7818279 173926251312381.301424105 2132282802326-20.901124138 20504315283423112.65313548 1950341717292632.76344392 35432629-3312652.29283796 273531247272071.602736914 15412531-62331-81.48354169 20402435-112931-21.0025351013 29451930-112932-31.7414311711 2134202002332-91.044211711 7372325-32528-40.546252016 8302632-6282620.226262014 233431627352411-0.21427243.613 24335113384222201.001330174.013 20282439-153035-5-0.70423193.718 -31-81766-483054-23-6.70-4711582.247 -14-12457-342559-35-6.55-526581.541 -12223045-152939-10-4.87-4113531.625 32737271037343-3.23-719262.014 1741422220382810-1.74628222.420 2238461729451728-0.71332292.3148.0015.00 12404814344719280.052235132.598.9117.82 36254323204516290.701527112.71210.8917.82 29414311323815230.841633163.0513.1319.19 24375515394632140.782644183.01510.8926.73 30535015353623132.422943143.2717.8230.69 2238272432434-90.37723163.51015.0025.00 2145282353037-70.592035153.2124.0030.00 2443231673132-11.291427133.168.0025.00 245324213262331.28192782.9811.0032.00 826282353422120.01723162.91212.8729.70 2028242132225-3-0.38321182.983.0021.00 1232262062330-7-1.24-118192.696.9316.83 9352624231238-0.45417132.71110.0025.00 73023158301812-0.011225132.7912.8729.70 1942291019292090.17172472.8109.0023.00 21464710373723141.00923142.91012.8726.73 24281725-826206-0.061122112.7127.0018.00 204422139261880.76111983.11210.1025.25 8312932-32833-5-1.06215132.51310.8924.75 4203334-135305-1.32-617232.3198.0028.00 7261642-262639-13-1.33118172.2169.9026.73 142833267362610-1.48-322252.1156.9321.78 -3122340-172441-17-2.92-417212.32213.0019.00 92638281033330-1.571734172.317.1715.001713.8619.80 9212530-52831-3-2.09-514192.011.889.902313.8614.85 18312830-22636-10-0.981427132.410.005.00127.0019.00 24373714233915240.522131102.414.8512.87134.9518.81 35383020102326-30.371325122.618.009.00-0.640.661210.0018.00 29583622143723142.33222753.010.8911.880.181.8549.9025.74 173424240292900.992031113.012.0010.000.320.25512.0030.00 2940371126242221.682539143.414.008.910.780.87128.9137.62 2445351322292461.382537123.418.8113.730.340.881212.7532.35 17514313303119122.591834163.818.8114.000.991.4476.9341.58 33394014263220122.481834163.216.8313.861.141.09811.8837.62 2541332673525101.852337143.921.2114.141.130.49911.2236.73 2035222022228-6-0.711530153.014.008.08-0.73-0.5273.0023.00 20362430-6302370.13728213.26.008.00-0.19-0.15117.0037.00 28311623-7302550.601328153.010.8911.880.53-0.2797.9242.57 11433320132226-40.761121103.215.845.940.54-0.06108.9141.58 1228241862026-6-0.441026162.811.003.960.08-0.911810.8930.69 -30233539-42848-20-5.91-3513481.510.3110.10-1.90-4.425912.0016.00 2263930930300-2.18-2120412.217.0015.00-0.56-2.072016.8332.67 26434117243519150.75029293.320.2013.270.390.08828.2838.38 4045548465410452.122037162.634.0022.77-0.281.91918.8131.68 2.30 36654221204923263.55434964.027.0022.220.792.22530.0040.00 2.80 466740328352784.36505884.432.3222.771.812.54733.6645.54 3.10 4777433674327165.85728194.838.0030.612.593.32441.0059.00 4.403.262.59 4.443.222.653.84 42634630165025264.89687465.246.5334.652.532.441143.5659.41 4.723.362.84 3.89 37664634125229224.866173125.847.0036.362.402.481542.5762.385.373.642.62 5.143.282.56 5.423.362.524.78 29472059-392347-241.943857194.926.0023.002.23-0.491643.0062.005.583.472.64 5.583.402.64 4.953.132.544.26 20352059-393444-100.303154244.730.0023.001.41-1.332922.7751.494.772.952.45 4.663.072.31 4.683.142.494.18 56.2959.7561.1057.34 64.3452.1047.5244.50 10.8439.2638.9040.37-9.90.0-9.9 18.5322.7218.2831.88 50.0043.9542.8227.75 5.248.8910.4420.87 -5.060.455.4 0.018.818.8 -7.925.717.8 -2.013.911.9 -3.09.96.9 -5.91.0-5.0 -13.97.9-5.9 -14.90.0-14.9 22.286.681.002.48 14.369.4111.006.19 29.7028.4727.5021.29 6.9313.8622.0026.98 6.9315.8421.5039.11 19.8025.7417.003.96 -334 368 3146 -157