{ "terms": { "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/terms/" }, "groups": { "A4_FUNDS_CONSUMER": { "label": "Funds advanced and outstanding balances for new and existing lending by chartered banks - Consumer credit", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_FUNDS_CONSUMER", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "A4_FUNDS_EXTENDED": { "label": "Funds advanced and outstanding balances for new and existing lending by chartered banks - Credit extended to corporate sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_FUNDS_EXTENDED", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "A4_FUNDS_GRAPH": { "label": "Funds advanced and outstanding balances for new and existing lending by chartered banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_FUNDS_GRAPH", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "A4_FUNDS_MONTHLY": { "label": "Funds advanced and outstanding balances for new and existing lending by chartered banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_FUNDS_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "A4_FUNDS_MORTGAGES": { "label": "Funds advanced and outstanding balances for new and existing lending by chartered banks - Mortgages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_FUNDS_MORTGAGES", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "A4_FUNDS_VARIABLE": { "label": "Funds advanced and outstanding balances for new and existing lending by chartered banks - Residential variable rate mortgages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_FUNDS_VARIABLE", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "A4_RATES_CONSUMER": { "label": "Interest rates charged for new and existing lending by chartered banks - Consumer credit", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_RATES_CONSUMER", "description": "Month-end, rates in percentage" }, "A4_RATES_EXTENDED": { "label": "Interest rates charged for new and existing lending by chartered banks - Credit extended to corporate sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_RATES_EXTENDED", "description": "Month-end, rates in percentage" }, "A4_RATES_GRAPH": { "label": "Interest rates charged for new and existing lending by chartered banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_RATES_GRAPH", "description": "Month-end, rates in percentage" }, "A4_RATES_MONTHLY": { "label": "Interest rates charged for new and existing lending by chartered banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_RATES_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, rates in percentage" }, "A4_RATES_MORTGAGES": { "label": "Interest rates charged for new and existing lending by chartered banks - Mortgages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_RATES_MORTGAGES", "description": "Month-end, rates in percentage" }, "A4_RATES_VARIABLE": { "label": "Interest rates charged for new and existing lending by chartered banks - Residential variable rate mortgages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/A4_RATES_VARIABLE", "description": "Month-end, rates in percentage" }, "AR_2023": { "label": "Annual Report 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AR_2023", "description": "Annual Report 2023" }, "AR_2023_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Gross bond issuance by tenor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AR_2023_C1", "description": " " }, "AR_2024": { "label": "Annual Report 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AR_2024", "description": "Annual Report 2024" }, "AR_2024_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Gross bond issuance by tenor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AR_2024_C1", "description": "" }, "ATABLE_INFLATION_CONTROL_TARGET": { "label": "Inflation-control target", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/ATABLE_INFLATION_CONTROL_TARGET", "description": "The target range for the annual rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as set by the Bank of Canada for the purpose of guiding monetary policy decisions." }, "ATABLE_INFLATIOON_INDICATORS": { "label": "Inflation indicators", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/ATABLE_INFLATIOON_INDICATORS", "description": "A group of data series that measure various aspects of inflation in Canada, including price indexes and core inflation measures. These indicators are used to monitor inflation trends and inform monetary policy decisions." }, "ATABLE_MONETARY_AGGREGATES": { "label": "Monetary aggregates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/ATABLE_MONETARY_AGGREGATES", "description": "Selected monthly measures of the amount of money in circulation, covering currency, various types of deposits and other retail instruments. " }, "ATABLE_MONETARY_CONDITIONS": { "label": "Monetary conditions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/ATABLE_MONETARY_CONDITIONS", "description": "A group of statistical series that track indicators related to the overall monetary environment in Canada, including the monthly value of the nominal Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index." }, "ATABLE_POLICY_INSTRUMENT": { "label": "Policy instrument", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/ATABLE_POLICY_INSTRUMENT", "description": "Tools used by the Bank of Canada to implement monetary policy and manage short‑term interest rates." }, "AUC_BOND": { "label": "Nominal Bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND", "description": "Nominal Bonds" }, "AUC_BOND_R": { "label": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_R", "description": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds" }, "AUC_BOND_RESULTS": { "label": "Nominal Bonds - Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_RESULTS", "description": "Nominal Bonds - Results" }, "AUC_BOND_RR": { "label": "Real Return Bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_RR", "description": "Real Return Bonds" }, "AUC_BOND_RR_RESULTS": { "label": "Bonds - Real Return Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_RR_RESULTS", "description": "Bonds - Real Return Results" }, "AUC_BOND_RR_UPCOMING_DETAILS": { "label": "Real Return Bonds - Upcoming", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_RR_UPCOMING_DETAILS", "description": "Real Return Bonds - Upcoming" }, "AUC_BOND_RR_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Real Return Bonds - Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_RR_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW", "description": "Real Return Bonds - Overview" }, "AUC_BOND_R_RESULTS_DETAILS": { "label": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds - Results Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_R_RESULTS_DETAILS", "description": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds - Results Details" }, "AUC_BOND_R_RESULTS_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds - Results Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_R_RESULTS_OVERVIEW", "description": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds - Results Overview" }, "AUC_BOND_R_UPCOMING_DETAILS": { "label": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds - Upcoming Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_R_UPCOMING_DETAILS", "description": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds - Upcoming Details" }, "AUC_BOND_R_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds - Upcoming Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_R_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW", "description": "Cash Management Repurchase Bonds - Upcoming Overview" }, "AUC_BOND_S": { "label": "Bond Switch", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_S", "description": "Bond Switch" }, "AUC_BOND_S_RESULTS_REPLACEMENT": { "label": "Bond Switch - Results Replacement", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_S_RESULTS_REPLACEMENT", "description": "Bond Switch - Results Replacement" }, "AUC_BOND_S_RESULTS_REPURCHASE": { "label": "Bond Switch - Results Repurchase", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_S_RESULTS_REPURCHASE", "description": "Bond Switch - Results Repurchase" }, "AUC_BOND_S_UPCOMING_REPLACEMENT": { "label": "Bond Switch - Upcoming Replacement", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_S_UPCOMING_REPLACEMENT", "description": "Bond Switch - Upcoming Replacement" }, "AUC_BOND_S_UPCOMING_REPURCHASE": { "label": "Bond Switch - Upcoming Repurchase", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_S_UPCOMING_REPURCHASE", "description": "Bond Switch - Upcoming Repurchase" }, "AUC_BOND_U": { "label": "Ultra Long Bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_U", "description": "Ultra Long Bonds" }, "AUC_BOND_UPCOMING_DETAILS": { "label": "Nominal Bonds - Upcoming Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_UPCOMING_DETAILS", "description": "Nominal Bonds - Upcoming Details" }, "AUC_BOND_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Nominal Bonds - Upcoming Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW", "description": "Nominal Bonds - Upcoming Overview" }, "AUC_BOND_U_RESULTS": { "label": "Bonds - Ultra Long - Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_U_RESULTS", "description": "Bonds - Ultra Long - Results" }, "AUC_BOND_U_UPCOMING_DETAILS": { "label": "Ultra Long Bonds - Upcoming Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_U_UPCOMING_DETAILS", "description": "Ultra Long Bonds - Upcoming Details" }, "AUC_BOND_U_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Ultra Long Bonds - Upcoming Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_BOND_U_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW", "description": "Ultra Long Bonds - Upcoming Overview" }, "AUC_RGAM": { "label": "Receiver General Cash Balances Morning Auction", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_RGAM", "description": "Receiver General Cash Balances Morning Auction" }, "AUC_RGAM_RESULTS": { "label": "Receiver General Cash Balances Morning Auction - Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_RGAM_RESULTS", "description": "Receiver General Cash Balances Morning Auction - Results" }, "AUC_RGAM_UPCOMING_DETAILS": { "label": "Receiver General Cash Balances Morning Auction - Upcoming Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_RGAM_UPCOMING_DETAILS", "description": "Receiver General Cash Balances Morning Auction - Upcoming Details" }, "AUC_RGAM_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Receiver General Cash Balances Morning Auction - Upcoming Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_RGAM_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW", "description": "Receiver General Cash Balances Morning Auction - Upcoming Overview" }, "AUC_SCHED": { "label": "Bond Auction Schedule", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_SCHED", "description": "Bond Auction Schedule" }, "AUC_TBILL": { "label": "Treasury Bills", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_TBILL", "description": "Treasury Bills" }, "AUC_TBILL_C": { "label": "Cash Management Bills", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_TBILL_C", "description": "Cash Management Bills" }, "AUC_TBILL_C_RESULTS_DETAILS": { "label": "Cash Management Bills - Result Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_TBILL_C_RESULTS_DETAILS", "description": "Cash Management Bills - Result Details" }, "AUC_TBILL_C_UPCOMING_DETAILS": { "label": "Cash Management Bills - Upcoming Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_TBILL_C_UPCOMING_DETAILS", "description": "Cash Management Bills - Upcoming Details" }, "AUC_TBILL_C_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Cash Management Bills - Upcoming Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_TBILL_C_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW", "description": "Cash Management Bills - Upcoming Overview" }, "AUC_TBILL_RESULTS": { "label": "Treasury Bills - Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_TBILL_RESULTS", "description": "Treasury Bills - Results" }, "AUC_TBILL_UPCOMING_DETAILS": { "label": "Treasury Bills - Upcoming Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_TBILL_UPCOMING_DETAILS", "description": "Treasury Bills - Upcoming Details" }, "AUC_TBILL_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Treasury Bills - Upcoming Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/AUC_TBILL_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW", "description": "Treasury Bills - Upcoming Overview" }, "B1_MONTHLY": { "label": "Bank of Canada assets and liabilities: Month-end", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/B1_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "B2_GRAPH": { "label": "Bank of Canada assets and liabilities: Weekly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/B2_GRAPH", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "B2_TABLE": { "label": "Bank of Canada assets and liabilities: Weekly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/B2_TABLE", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "B2_WEEKLY": { "label": "Bank of Canada assets and liabilities: Weekly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/B2_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "B3_MONTHLY": { "label": "Positions of members of Payments Canada with the Bank of Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/B3_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "B3_WEEKLY": { "label": "Positions of members of Payments Canada with the Bank of Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/B3_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "B4_ANNUAL": { "label": "Statistics pertaining to counterfeit Canadian bank notes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/B4_ANNUAL", "description": "Annual" }, "B4_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Statistics pertaining to counterfeit Canadian bank notes ", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/B4_QUARTERLY", "description": "Quarterly" }, "BANKERS_ACCEPTANCE_PURCHASE_FACILITY": { "label": "Bankers Acceptance Purchase Facility", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BANKERS_ACCEPTANCE_PURCHASE_FACILITY", "description": "Bankers Acceptance Purchase Facility" }, "BANK_NOTE_SURVEY": { "label": "Bank Note Confidence Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BANK_NOTE_SURVEY", "description": "Bank Note Confidence Survey" }, "BAPF_TRANSACTION_DATA": { "label": "Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility, transaction level data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BAPF_TRANSACTION_DATA", "description": "Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility, transaction level data" }, "BCPI_ANNUAL": { "label": "Annual BCPI", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BCPI_ANNUAL", "description": "Annual Bank of Canada commodity price index." }, "BCPI_MONTHLY": { "label": "Monthly BCPI", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BCPI_MONTHLY", "description": "Monthly Bank of Canada commodity price index." }, "BCPI_WEEKLY": { "label": "Weekly BCPI", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BCPI_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Bank of Canada commodity price index." }, "BCPI_WEIGHTS": { "label": "BCPI Weights", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BCPI_WEIGHTS", "description": "BCPI Weights" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022": { "label": "Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022", "description": "Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2022" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The Bank of Canada’s total greenhouse gas emissions, scope 1 and 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C1", "description": "tCO2e\n\ntCO2e is tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Weighted average carbon intensity of the Bank of Canada’s balance sheet", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C2", "description": "tCO2e is tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. The Government of Canada and provincial securities groupings use GDP as the denominator and the corporate bonds grouping uses company sales. Both are presented in Canadian dollars. When necessary, annual exchange rates are used for the conversion. The exchange rate used matches the year of the sales or GDP figure. Because of the lag in national carbon emissions data, this report uses 2020 GHG data for Government of Canada securities and provincial securities. The data lag from MSCI (used for the corporate bond portfolio) varies from one to three years. GDP data (for Government of Canada and provincial securities) and sale data (for corporate bonds) used match the emissions year. The GDP is in 2020 prices. GDP and GHG revisions are common and will impact the calculation of historical metrics that the Bank may include in future reports. Historical WACI figures will likely be restated in future disclosure reports to account for these changes.\n\nOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Bank, Statistics Canada, MSCI and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada’s corporate holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C3", "description": "Moody’s and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada securities portfolio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C4", "description": "This portfolio consists of Government of Canada Bonds, real return bonds and Canada Mortgage Bonds, which are equally weighted as an exposure.\n\nMoody’s and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada’s provincial bond holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C5", "description": "Moody’s and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Weighted average carbon intensity of the Bank of Canada Pension Plan portfolios", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C6", "description": "tCO2e is tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.\n\nOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Bank, Statistics Canada, MSCI and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada Pension Plan’s public equity portfolio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C7", "description": "Moody’s and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada Pension Plan’s corporate bond holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C8", "description": "Moody’s and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada Pension Plan’s provincial bond holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOC_CLIMATERISKS_2022_C9", "description": "Moody’s and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "bond_yields_all": { "label": "Selected bond yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/bond_yields_all", "description": "Average yields for selected Government of Canada marketable bonds." }, "bond_yields_benchmark": { "label": "Selected benchmark bond yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/bond_yields_benchmark", "description": "The daily yields for a set of benchmark government bonds. These yields serve as reference rates for Canadian dollar-denominated fixed income securities and are used to assess market conditions and inform monetary policy decisions." }, "bond_yields_marketable": { "label": "Marketable bond average yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/bond_yields_marketable", "description": "The average yields of marketable bonds. This series provides a measure of the prevailing yields for marketable bonds in the Canadian market." }, "bos": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/bos", "description": "A summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with business leaders from about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product. The survey's purpose is to gather the perspectives of these businesses on topics of interest to the Bank of Canada (such as demand and capacity pressures) and their forward-looking views on economic activity." }, "BOSBG_2022Q1": { "label": "BOS 2022 Q1 -- Backgrounder", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOSBG_2022Q1", "description": "Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey question on firms’ average expected wage increase" }, "BOSBG_2022Q1_C1": { "label": "Average expected wage increase and other measures of wage growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOSBG_2022Q1_C1", "description": "What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year? (year-over-year percentage change)\n\nLFS is Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey." }, "BOSDATAPAGE_20240307": { "label": "BOS data page chart 5", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOSDATAPAGE_20240307", "description": "BOS data page chart 5" }, "BOSDATAPAGE_20240307_C1": { "label": "Chart 13: Objectives of investment spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOSDATAPAGE_20240307_C1", "description": "What is the primary objective of your firm’s investment spending? (Multiple response options, share of firms)\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOSDATAPAGE_20240619": { "label": "BOS data page chart 5", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOSDATAPAGE_20240619", "description": "BOS data page chart 5" }, "BOSDATAPAGE_20240619_C1": { "label": "Chart 13: Objectives of investment spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOSDATAPAGE_20240619_C1", "description": "What is the primary objective of your firm’s investment spending? (Multiple response options, share of firms)\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2018_FALL_CHART1-A": { "label": "Strong demand and capacity constraints are key drivers of firms’ investment plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2018_FALL_CHART1-A", "description": " " }, "BOS_2018_WINTER_CHART1-A": { "label": "Since the summer 2017 survey, reports that labour shortages were more intense than a year ago have been widespread, particularly outside the Prairies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2018_WINTER_CHART1-A", "description": "Intensity of labour shortages (balance of opinion): Compared with 12 months ago, are labour shortages generally more intense, less intense or about the same intensity?" }, "BOS_2019Q1_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Firms' expectations of US growth have moderated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2019Q1_C1A", "description": "Over the next 12 months, what is your underlying assumption for the US economy?" }, "BOS_2019Q2_C1A": { "label": "Expected sales are supported by strong domestic and foreign demand", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2019Q2_C1A", "description": "Balance of opinion (% of firms citing factor is supporting sales minus % citing factor is holding back sales)" }, "BOS_2019Q3": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2019Q3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "BOS_2019Q3_C1A": { "label": "In 2019, business sentiment has been uneven across the regions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2019Q3_C1A", "description": "Standardized units" }, "BOS_2020Q2_C1": { "label": "More than half of firms expect their sales and employment levels to be near pre-pandemic levels within a year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2020Q2_C1", "description": "To what extent do you think your sales/workforce will be back to pre-COVID-19 levels in the next 12 months? Percentage of firms in expanded sample (119 firms)" }, "BOS_2020Q2_C2": { "label": "Most businesses can resume normal production within a month", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2020Q2_C2", "description": "Once restrictions are lifted, how long would it take for production to return to normal?Percentage of firms in expanded sample (119 firms)" }, "BOS_2020Q4": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Winter 2020–21", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2020Q4", "description": "In the winter Business Outlook Survey, firms pointed to a continued recovery supported by strengthening domestic and foreign demand, particularly in goods-producing sectors. Still, firms expect the recovery to be uneven; in particular, businesses that have been hit hard by the pandemic anticipate challenging times ahead." }, "BOS_2020Q4_C1A": { "label": "Investment in machinery and equipment, four-quarter moving average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2020Q4_C1A", "description": "Over the next 12 months, is your firm's investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months? (balance of opinion*)\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment minus the percentage expecting lower investment\nNote: CITU is construction, information, transportation and utilities; FIRE is finance, insurance and real estate; CPBS is commercial, personal and business services." }, "BOS_2020Q4_C5": { "label": "Most firms expect no changes in their prime rate in the near term", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2020Q4_C5", "description": "When do you expect the prime rate on your loans (from domestic lenders) to increase?\n* Percentage of firms reporting their expectations on the prime rate" }, "BOS_2021Q1": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Spring 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q1", "description": "Results from the spring Business Outlook Survey suggest that business sentiment continues to improve. Firms reported less uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic and strengthening demand from weak levels. Still, the recovery remains uneven, with firms tied to high-contact services facing ongoing challenges." }, "BOS_2021Q1_C2": { "label": "Nearly two-thirds of firms report their sales are at or above pre-pandemic levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q1_C2", "description": "Where are your sales relative to pre-pandemic levels? (percentage of firms)" }, "BOS_2021Q1_C6": { "label": "Healthy demand and limits on current capacity are key drivers of firms’ investment plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q1_C6", "description": "Reasons for firms’ planned investment expenditures over the next 12 months (percentage of firms)" }, "BOS_2021Q2": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Summer 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q2", "description": "Results from the summer Business Outlook Survey point to continued improvement in business sentiment. Firms tied to high-contact services still face challenges but are becoming more confident that sales will pick up as vaccination rates rise. This suggests an important broadening in the recovery ahead." }, "BOS_2021Q2_C11": { "label": "More than half of firms expect their borrowing rates to increase within the next two years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q2_C11", "description": "When do you expect the prime rate on your loans (from domestic lenders) to increase? Percentage of firms\nNote: This special-topic question was asked in the winter 2020 and spring 2021 Business Outlook Survey.\n" }, "BOS_2021Q2_C9": { "label": "After the next year, output prices are expected to grow at a pace similar to that before the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q2_C9", "description": "Beyond the next 12 months, do you expect the pace of your price increases to be similar to typical pre-pandemic increases, higher or lower? Percentage of respondents" }, "BOS_2021Q3": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q3", "description": "Firms anticipate stronger demand as pandemic conditions improve, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey in the third quarter of 2021. However, many businesses face supply constraints that will limit their sales and put upward pressure on their costs. Together, these demand pressures and supply challenges are driving widespread plans to invest, hire staff and increase prices." }, "BOS_2021Q3_C11": { "label": "The growth rate of input prices is expected to remain high but not accelerate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q3_C11", "description": "Right axis: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? (balance of opinion) Left axis: Probe on the magnitude of change (percent of sample)" }, "BOS_2021Q3_C12": { "label": "Output price growth is stable and elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q3_C12", "description": "Right axis: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? (balance of opinion) Left axis: Probe on the magnitude of change (percent of sample)" }, "BOS_2021Q3_C3": { "label": "Labour shortages and supply chain disruptions increasingly cited as constraints", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q3_C3", "description": "What would be the most important obstacles or bottlenecks to being able to meet an unexpected increase in demand?\nNote: Mentions of a fully utilized labour force and an inability to find suitable new labour at the current wage are counted as labour shortages. Mentions of raw material constraints, transportation difficulties and logistics bottlenecks are counted as supply chain disruptions. Firms could select more than one response." }, "BOS_2021Q3_C5": { "label": "More firms than last quarter reported limiting their sales in response to capacity pressures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q3_C5", "description": "If firm reports capacity pressures: What are you doing differently because of these difficulties?\n* Not asked in 2021Q2" }, "BOS_2021Q3_C7": { "label": "Many firms reported that lack of capacity and skills will dampen sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q3_C7", "description": "Are there any other factors, good or bad, that are impacting your domestic/export sales over the next 12 months? (share of firms reporting capacity or skills having a positive impact less share of firms reporting a negative impact, percent)\n* Share of exporters" }, "BOS_2021Q4": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q4", "description": "In the fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey, reports of supply chain bottlenecks and labour shortages remain elevated. Firms cited robust growth in demand, although those offering hard-to-distance services still had sales below pre-pandemic levels, even before the Omicron variant began spreading broadly. These factors are resulting in upward pressures on prices over the next year." }, "BOS_2021Q4_C12": { "label": "Capacity pressures have driven the BOS indicator higher in the last three quarters", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q4_C12", "description": "* The BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main survey questions that gauges overall business sentiment." }, "BOS_2021Q4_C2": { "label": "Supply chain and labour bottlenecks continue to increase", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q4_C2", "description": "What would be the most important obstacles or bottlenecks to being able to meet an unexpected increase in demand?*\n* Mentions of a fully utilized labour force and an inability to find suitable new labour at the current wage are counted as labour bottlenecks. Mentions of raw material constraints, transportation difficulties and logistics issues are counted as supply chain bottlenecks. Firms could select more than one response." }, "BOS_2021Q4_C4": { "label": "Lack of capacity and skills have become more prominent constraints on firms' sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q4_C4", "description": "Are there any other factors, good or bad, that are impacting your domestic/export sales over the next 12 months? (Share of firms reporting that capacity or skills are having a positive impact on sales expectations minus the share of firms reporting that a lack of capacity or skills is having a negative impact, percent)\n* Share of exporters" }, "BOS_2021Q4_C9": { "label": "Firms plan to increase wages mainly to attract and retain staff", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2021Q4_C9", "description": "Factors contributing to wage increases\n* Percentage of firms that mentioned positive wage pressure. Firms could select more than one response." }, "BOS_2022Q1": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q1", "description": "In the first-quarter 2022 Business Outlook Survey, reports of labour-related capacity constraints and supply chain challenges remain widespread. Given these pressures and robust demand, businesses anticipate stronger price growth—and they expect the Russian invasion of Ukraine to add more cost pressures. As public health restrictions ease, firms that were hit hard during the pandemic anticipate their sales will pick up." }, "BOS_2022Q1_C1": { "label": "Many businesses anticipate the Russian invasion of Ukraine will increase their input costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q1_C1", "description": "What areas of your business do you expect to be impacted by the conflict in Ukraine? Count of firms (among the 77 of 152 firms that expect to be affected)\n\n“Net” is the number of firms expecting an increase minus the number expecting a decrease. Results are from the Bank of Canada’s Business Leaders’ Pulse survey. The online survey took place from March 4 to March 10, 2022, and included 152 firms.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "BOS_2022Q1_C11": { "label": "Most businesses anticipate inflation will be near 2% in three years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q1_C11", "description": "How long do you expect inflation to remain substantially above 2%? (percentage of those respondents expecting inflation to average above 2% over the next two years)" }, "BOS_2022Q1_C2": { "label": "The BOS indicator continues to be elevated as capacity pressures remain widespread", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q1_C2", "description": "Standardized units\n\nThe BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main survey questions that gauges overall business sentiment" }, "BOS_2022Q1_C7": { "label": "Most businesses see wages rising at a faster rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q1_C7", "description": "Wages (balance of opinion*): Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs (wages per hour) expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? Average expected wage increase (year-over-year percentage change): What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases" }, "BOS_2022Q1_C9": { "label": "Cost pressures continue to affect firms’ expectations of output prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q1_C9", "description": "Sources of pressure on output price growth, net number of firms*\n\n* Number of firms citing upward pressure on output prices minus the number citing downward pressure\n† Average net number of firms for each category, 2014Q2 to 2022Q1" }, "BOS_2022Q2": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2", "description": "Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2022, along with those from the April, May and June 2022 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys, suggest that capacity pressures remain elevated and expectations of significant price increases continue to be widespread. Firms anticipate that sales growth will begin to moderate from exceptionally high rates as signs of greater uncertainty emerge." }, "BOS_2022Q2_C1": { "label": "The BOS indicator remains elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C1", "description": "" }, "BOS_2022Q2_C10": { "label": "Expectations for short-term inflation are still rising, while those for the longer term are stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C10", "description": "BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse survey and BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. The BOS 2‑year estimate is based on firms’ responses to the BOS question, “Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index?” Firms can select from predetermined ranges and provide a point estimate. In cases where a firm selects a range only: if the range is closed, a midpoint is used; if the range is open‑ended, the average expectation of other firms in that range is used. The BLP survey asked businesses, “What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?” BLP estimates use the midpoints of multiple-choice buckets, with values assigned to open-ended buckets (-1% and 9% for the "deflation" and "8% or higher" buckets, respectively)." }, "BOS_2022Q2_C11": { "label": "More firms see inflation remaining above target for at least three years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C11", "description": "How long do you expect inflation to remain substantially above 2%?" }, "BOS_2022Q2_C1A": { "label": "Capital expenditures in the energy sector as a share of cash flow will be modest", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C1A", "description": "Capital expenditures as a percentage of cash flow\n\nSources: Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_2022Q2_C3": { "label": "Reports of labour-related constraints and supply chain bottlenecks remain widespread", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C3", "description": "What would be the most important obstacles or bottlenecks to being able to meet an unexpected increase in demand?*\n\nMentions of a fully utilized labour force and an inability to find suitable new labour at the current wage are counted as labour bottlenecks. Mentions of raw material constraints, transportation difficulties and logistics issues are counted as supply chain bottlenecks. Firms could select more than one response." }, "BOS_2022Q2_C4": { "label": "In response to supply chain issues, firms are reconfiguring their supply chains and carrying more inventory", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C4", "description": "If firm reports capacity pressures due to supply chain issues: What are you doing differently because of these difficulties?" }, "BOS_2022Q2_C7": { "label": "Businesses see wages rising at a faster rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C7", "description": "Wages (balance of opinion*): Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs (wages per hour) expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? Average expected wage increase (year-over-year percentage change): What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\nPercentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases" }, "BOS_2022Q2_C8": { "label": "Inflation-related pressures—particularly the rising cost of living—are viewed as an important source of wage growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C8", "description": "Drivers of wage growth" }, "BOS_2022Q2_C9": { "label": "Many firms expect significant increases in their input and output prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q2_C9", "description": "Input prices (percent of sample): Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services purchased expected to increase significantly/increase slightly/remain the same/decrease slightly/decrease significantly? Output prices (percent of sample): Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services sold expected to increase significantly/increase slightly/remain the same/decrease slightly/decrease significantly?" }, "BOS_2022Q3": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3", "description": "Business confidence has softened, according to results from the third-quarter 2022 Business Outlook Survey and the July through October 2022 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys. Many firms expect slower sales growth as interest rates rise and demand growth shifts closer to pre-pandemic levels. Early signs suggest that pressures on prices and wages have started to ease, but firms’ inflation expectations remain high." }, "BOS_2022Q3_C1": { "label": "Business sentiment is trending down", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment; double-weighted balance of opinion; range of potential outcomes is from -200% to 200%.\nThis question was not asked in September. October results are preliminary and range from October 1 to 12.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2022Q3_C10": { "label": "Firms see rising interest rates and high prices as main triggers of a recession", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C10", "description": "What do you think will most likely trigger a recession?* (share of firms)\n\n* Respondents were asked to select all that apply. Additional options not shown here include Other and I don't think there will be a recession in the next 12 months. Results shown here are for August and September 2022.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2022Q3_C11": { "label": "Businesses with capacity pressures have solid investment plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C11", "description": "Investment intentions (balance of opinion*): Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending" }, "BOS_2022Q3_C2": { "label": "The BOS indicator has declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C2", "description": "* The BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main Business Outlook Survey (BOS) questions that gauges overall business sentiment." }, "BOS_2022Q3_C3": { "label": "Firms’ short-term inflation expectations continue to be high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C3", "description": "Expected inflation at different horizons\n\nNote: BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse survey and BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. The BOS 2‑year estimate is based on firms’ responses to the BOS question, “Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index?” Firms can select from predetermined ranges and provide a point estimate. In cases where a firm selects a range only: if the range is closed, a midpoint is used; if the range is open‑ended, the average expectation of other firms in that range is used. The BLP survey asked businesses, “What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?” BLP estimates use the midpoints of multiple-choice buckets, with values assigned to open-ended buckets (-1% and 9% for the “deflation” and “8% or higher” buckets, respectively). This question was not asked in the BLP in January or March 2022. October results are preliminary and range from October 1 to 12." }, "BOS_2022Q3_C5": { "label": "Labour costs remain a source of upward pressure on firms’ output price expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C5", "description": "Sources of pressure on output price growth, net number of firms*\n\n* Number of firms citing upward pressure on output price growth minus the number citing downward pressure\n† Average net number of firms for each category, 2014Q2 to 2022Q3" }, "BOS_2022Q3_C6": { "label": "Firms’ average expected wage increase has declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C6", "description": "Wages (balance of opinion*): Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs (wages per hour) expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months? Average expected wage increase (year-over-year percentage change): What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases" }, "BOS_2022Q3_C7": { "label": "Labour and supply chain bottlenecks may have peaked", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C7", "description": "What would be the most important obstacles or bottlenecks to being able to meet an unexpected increase in demand?*\n\n* Mentions of a fully utilized labour force and an inability to find suitable new labour at the current wage are counted as labour bottlenecks. Mentions of raw material constraints, transportation difficulties and logistics issues are counted as supply chain bottlenecks. Firms could mention more than one bottleneck; mentions were then pooled and counted only once by type of bottleneck." }, "BOS_2022Q3_C9": { "label": "Most businesses think a recession is likely", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q3_C9", "description": "What do you think is the chance that the Canadian economy will be in recession within the next 12 months? (share of firms)\n\nResults shown here are for August and September 2022.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2022Q4": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4", "description": "Results from the fourth-quarter 2022 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from October 2022 through January 2023 show that business sentiment has continued to weaken. As a result of rising interest rates, firms’ sales expectations and investment plans are softening. Capacity pressures have moderated from elevated levels. In this context, firms expect a slower pace of price increases." }, "BOS_2022Q4_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The BOS indicator moved down again", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C1", "description": "* Capacity indicators are those related to labour shortages, labour shortage intensity and the ability to meet demand.\n† The BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main Business Outlook Survey (BOS) questions. It gauges overall business sentiment." }, "BOS_2022Q4_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Many firms still expect large input and output price increases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C10", "description": "Input prices: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services purchased expected to increase significantly, increase slightly, remain the same, decrease slightly or decrease significantly? (Percent of sample) Output prices: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services sold expected to increase significantly, increase slightly, remain the same, decrease slightly or decrease significantly? (Percent of sample)" }, "BOS_2022Q4_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Firms negatively affected by higher interest rates have weaker outlooks than other businesses", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C1A", "description": "Balance of opinion for four core survey questions" }, "BOS_2022Q4_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Concerns about demand and credit have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C2", "description": "In the current quarter, which items have been the most pressing concerns for your company? Select up to three. (Share of firms, Business Leaders’ Pulse)\n\nThis question was not asked during the July through September 2022 surveys of the Business Leaders' Pulse.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "BOS_2022Q4_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: More businesses than usual expect their sales to decline", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C3", "description": "Future sales declines (share of firms): Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s sales volume expected to decline?" }, "BOS_2022Q4_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Financing costs are holding back firms' investment plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C5", "description": "Reasons for firms' planned investment expenditures over the next 12 months (share of firms)\n\n* Export-oriented firms only" }, "BOS_2022Q4_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Reports of labour and supply chain bottlenecks have moderated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C6", "description": "What would be the most important obstacles or bottlenecks to being able to meet an unexpected increase in demand?* (Share of firms)\n\n* Mentions of a fully utilized labour force and an inability to find suitable new labour at the current wage are counted as labour bottlenecks. Mentions of raw material constraints, transportation difficulties and logistics issues are counted as supply chain bottlenecks. Firms could mention more than one bottleneck; mentions were then pooled and counted only once by type of bottleneck." }, "BOS_2022Q4_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Firms’ short-term inflation expectations remain elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C7", "description": "Expectations for inflation at different horizons\n\nBLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse, and BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. The BOS 2‑year estimate is based on firms’ responses to the BOS question, “Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index?” Firms can select from predetermined ranges and provide a point estimate. In cases where a firm selects a range only: if the range is closed, a midpoint is used; if the range is open‑ended, the average expectation of other firms in that range is used. The BLP survey asked businesses, “What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?” BLP estimates use the midpoints of multiple-choice buckets, with values assigned to open-ended buckets (-1% and 9% for the “deflation” and “8% or higher” buckets, respectively). This question was not asked in the BLP in January or March 2022. January 2023 results are preliminary and range from January 4 to 10, 2023." }, "BOS_2022Q4_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Many firms expect inflation to stay above 2% for three years or more", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2022Q4_C8", "description": "If inflation expectations are greater than 2%: When do you expect inflation to be back close to 2%? (Share of firms)\n\n* Not applicable category includes firms with inflation expectations below or not materially above 2%." }, "BOS_2023Q1": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1", "description": "Results from the first-quarter 2023 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from January through March 2023 show a subdued sales outlook and plans for modest growth in capital expenditures. The labour market remains tight, but pressures have eased from high levels." }, "BOS_2023Q1_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The BOS indicator continues to decrease as price expectations and capacity pressures ease", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C1", "description": "Note: The BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main Business Outlook Survey (BOS) questions. It gauges overall business sentiment. Sales indicators are those related to past sales declines, future sales growth and indicators of future sales. Price indicators are those related to input and output price growth. Capacity indicators are those related to labour shortages, labour shortage intensity and the ability to meet demand. The calculation of the BOS indicator has changed, effective in the first quarter of 2023. A backgrounder outlining the motivation for and implications of the change is forthcoming and will be published on the Bank's website." }, "BOS_2023Q1_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Most firms anticipate inflation will be well above 2% until at least 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C10", "description": "If inflation expectations are greater than 2%: When do you expect inflation to be back close to 2%? (Share of firms)\n\n* Not applicable category includes firms with inflation expectations below or not materially above 2%." }, "BOS_2023Q1_C12": { "label": "Chart 12: Firms expect the size and frequency of their price changes to gradually shift closer to normal", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C12", "description": "Size of price changes (balance of opinion*): Over the past 12 months (next 12 months), on average across the products and services you sell, the size of your price changes, in percent, have been (will be): larger than normal, smaller than normal or roughly the same size as normal? Frequency of price changes (balance of opinion†): Over the past 12 months (next 12 months), on average across the products and services you sell, how often have you changed (will you change) selling prices: more frequently than normal, less frequently than normal or as frequently as normal?\n\n* Percentage of firms experiencing or expecting larger-than-normal price increases minus the percentage experiencing or expecting smaller-than-normal price increases.\n† Percentage of firms experiencing or expecting more-frequent-than-normal price increases minus the percentage experiencing or expecting less-frequent-than-normal price increases. Firms without regular pricing frequency were excluded.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2023Q1_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Cost pressures remain the top concern of firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C2", "description": "In the current quarter, which items have been the most pressing concerns for your company? Select up to three. (Share of firms)\n\nNote: This question is not asked in the Business Leaders’ Pulse every month. It is often asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the third quarter of 2022.\n\nSource: Business Leaders' Pulse" }, "BOS_2023Q1_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Business sentiment is roughly unchanged", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C3", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. This is a double-weighted balance of opinion where the range of potential outcomes is from -200% to 200%.\nNote: This question was not asked in September 2022. March data incorporated into 2023Q1 results are preliminary and range from March 1 to 23, 2023.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2023Q1_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Businesses expect their sales growth to slow", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C4", "description": "Future sales (balance of opinion*): Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s sales volume expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? Indicators of future sales (balance of opinion†): Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting faster growth minus the percentage expecting slower growth\n† Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated" }, "BOS_2023Q1_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Firms’ plans to increase investment have stabilized after trending down recently", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C5", "description": "Investment intentions (balance of opinion*): Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending" }, "BOS_2023Q1_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Reports of labour-related bottlenecks have fallen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C7", "description": "What would be the most important obstacles or bottlenecks to being able to meet an unexpected increase in demand?* (Share of firms)\n\n* Mentions of a fully utilized labour force and an inability to find suitable new labour at the current wage are counted as labour bottlenecks. Mentions of raw material constraints, transportation difficulties and logistics issues are counted as supply chain bottlenecks. Firms could mention more than one bottleneck; mentions were then pooled and counted only once by type of bottleneck." }, "BOS_2023Q1_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Firms’ short-term inflation expectations have edged down but remain high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q1_C9", "description": "Expectations for inflation at different horizons\n\nNote: BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse, and BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. The BOS 2‑year estimate is based on firms’ responses to the BOS question, “Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index?” Firms can select from predetermined ranges and provide a point estimate. In cases where a firm selects a range only: if the range is closed, a midpoint is used; if the range is open‑ended, the average expectation of other firms in that range is used. The BLP survey asked businesses, “What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?” BLP estimates use the midpoints of multiple-choice buckets, with values assigned to open-ended buckets (-1% and 9% for the “deflation” and “8% or higher” buckets, respectively). This question was not asked in the BLP in January or March 2022. March results are preliminary and range from March 1 to 23, 2023." }, "BOS_2023Q2": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q2", "description": "Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2023, along with those from the April, May and June 2023 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys, suggest that capacity pressures remain elevated and expectations of significant price increases continue to be widespread. Firms anticipate that sales growth will begin to moderate from exceptionally high rates as signs of greater uncertainty emerge." }, "BOS_2023Q2_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The BOS indicator is negative again", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q2_C1", "description": "Contributions to BOS indicator (standardized units)\n\nNote: The BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main Business Outlook Survey (BOS) questions. Business activity indicators are those related to past sales declines, future sales growth, indicators of future sales, employment and investment. Price and cost indicators are those related to input and output price growth as well as credit conditions. Capacity indicators are those related to labour shortages, labour shortage intensity and the ability to meet demand. The calculation of the BOS indicator has changed, effective in the first quarter of 2023. A backgrounder outlining the motivation for and implications of the change was published on the Bank’s website on May 8, 2023." }, "BOS_2023Q2_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Firms expect inflation in the short term to remain elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q2_C10", "description": "Expectations for inflation at different horizons\n\nNote: BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse, and BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. The BOS 2-year estimate is based on firms’ responses to the BOS question, “Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index?” Firms can select from predetermined ranges and provide a point estimate. In cases where a firm selects a range only, if the range is closed, a midpoint is used, and if the range is open-ended, the average expectation of other firms in that range is used. The BLP survey asks businesses, “What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?” BLP estimates use the midpoints of multiple-choice buckets, with values assigned to open-ended buckets (-1% for the “deflation” bucket and 9% for the “8% or higher” bucket). This question was not asked in the BLP in January or March 2022. June 2023 results are preliminary and range from June 1 to 22 2023." }, "BOS_2023Q2_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Several businesses expect high inflation to persist until 2028 and beyond", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q2_C11", "description": "If inflation expectations are greater than 2%: When do you expect inflation to be back close to 2%? (Share of firms)\n\n* Not applicable category includes firms with inflation expectations below or not materially above 2%." }, "BOS_2023Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Business sentiment has declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q2_C2", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. This is a double-weighted balance of opinion where the range of potential outcomes is from -200% to 200%.\nNote: This question was not asked in September 2022. June 2023 data incorporated into 2023Q2 Business Leaders ’ Pulse results are preliminary and range from June 1 to 22, 2023.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2023Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Firms are increasingly concerned about slowing demand", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q2_C3", "description": "In the current quarter, which items have been the most pressing concerns for your company? Select up to three. (Share of firms)\n\nNote: This question in the Business Leaders’ Pulse is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the third quarter of 2022." }, "BOS_2023Q2_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Investment intentions are weak for firms not tied to natural resource activity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q2_C5", "description": "Investment intentions (contribution to balance of opinion): Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending" }, "BOS_2023Q2_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Firms’ expected price increases remain larger than normal", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q2_C9", "description": "Size of price changes (balance of opinion*): Over the past 12 months (next 12 months), on average across the products and services you sell, the size of your price changes, in percent, has been (will be): larger than normal, smaller than normal or roughly the same size as normal. Frequency of price changes (balance of opinion†): Over the past 12 months (next 12 months), on average across the products and services you sell, how often have you changed (will you change) selling prices: more frequently than normal, less frequently than normal or as frequently as normal?\n\n* Percentage of firms experiencing or expecting larger-than-normal price increases minus the percentage experiencing or expecting smaller-than-normal price increases\n† Percentage of firms experiencing or expecting more-frequent-than-normal price increases minus the percentage experiencing or expecting less-frequent-than-normal price increases. Firms without regular pricing frequency were excluded.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2023Q3": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3", "description": "Results from the Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter of 2023, along with those from the July, August and September 2023 Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys suggest that on balance, firms are still planning to make larger and more frequent price increases than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, businesses' outlook for demand has continued to weaken as higher interest rates impact the economy." }, "BOS_2023Q3_C1": { "label": "The BOS indicator has declined further", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3_C1", "description": "Contributions to BOS indicator (standardized units)\n\nThe BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main Business Outlook Survey (BOS) questions. Business activity indicators are those related to past sales declines, future sales growth, indicators of future sales, employment and investment. Price and cost indicators are those related to input and output price growth as well as credit conditions. Capacity indicators are those related to labour shortages, labour shortage intensity and the ability to meet demand. The calculation of the BOS indicator has changed, effective in the first quarter of 2023. A backgrounder outlining the motivation for and implications of the change was published on the Bank’s website on May 8, 2023." }, "BOS_2023Q3_C10": { "label": "Firms' short-term inflation expectations eased down further", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3_C10", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nBLP is the Business Leaders' Pulse and BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate.\n In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average expectation of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the \nBLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP." }, "BOS_2023Q3_C2": { "label": "Concerns about slowing demand continue to rise", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3_C2", "description": "In the current quarter, which items have been the most pressing concerns for your company? Select up to three. (Share of firms)\n\nThis question in the Business Leaders' Pulse is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the third quarter of 2022.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2023Q3_C3": { "label": "Firms still plan to raise prices more than normal", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3_C3", "description": "Size of price changes (balance of opinion*): Over the past 12 months (next 12 months), on average across the products and services you sell, the size of your price changes, in percent, has been (will be): larger than normal, smaller than normal or roughly the same size as normal. Frequency of price changes (balance of opinion†): Over the past 12 months (next 12 months), on average across the products and services you sell, how often have you changed (will you change) selling prices: more frequently than normal, less frequently than normal or as frequently as normal?\n\n* Percentage of firms experiencing or expecting larger-than-normal price increases minus the percentage experiencing or expecting smaller-than-normal price increases\n† Percentage of firms experiencing or expecting more-frequent-than-normal price increases minus the percentage experiencing or expecting less-frequent-than-normal price increases. Firms without regular pricing frequency were excluded.\n\nBusiness Leader’s Pulse" }, "BOS_2023Q3_C4": { "label": "Firms' sales outlooks remain weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3_C4", "description": "Indicators of future sales (balance of opinion*): Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?" }, "BOS_2023Q3_C5": { "label": "The negative impacts of higher rates are widespread", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3_C5", "description": "Since March of last year, the Bank has raised the target for the overnight rate to 5.00%. What impacts, if any, do you see from these interest rate increases on your business operations or decisions? (Share of firms negatively impacted by interest rates, grouped by sector)" }, "BOS_2023Q3_C6": { "label": "Firms believe the impacts of tightened monetary policy are just beginning", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3_C6", "description": "Interest rates in Canada have risen since 2021. How would you categorize the impacts these interest rate increases have had so far on your business?\n\nBusiness Leader’s Pulse" }, "BOS_2023Q3_C8": { "label": "Labour market pressures continue to ease", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q3_C8", "description": "Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand? Intensity of labour shortages (balance of opinion*): Compared with 12 months ago, are labour shortages generally more intense, less intense or about the same intensity?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting more-intense labour shortages minus the percentage reporting less-intense shortages" }, "BOS_2023Q4": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4", "description": "Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that with high interest rates and soft demand, firms’ sales growth has slowed over the past 12 months. Firms are less optimistic about current business conditions than they were last quarter, but they expect their sales growth to stabilize in the coming year. With competition returning and demand remaining soft, businesses’ pricing behaviour is slowly returning to normal." }, "BOS_2023Q4_C1": { "label": "Business sentiment fell sharply throughout the fourth quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (3-month moving average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting good or very good business conditions minus the percentage reporting poor or very poor business conditions. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse\nLast observation: December 31, 2023" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C10": { "label": "Wage growth continues to trend downward", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C10", "description": "Average expected wage increase (year-over-year percentage change): What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C11": { "label": "Firms’ short-term inflation expectations have been slowly trending down", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C11", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average expectation of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the \nBLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nLast observation: Business Outlook Survey, 2023Q4; Business Leaders’ Pulse, December 31, 2023" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C2": { "label": "Top concerns have shifted to demand and uncertainty", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C2", "description": "In the current quarter, which items have been the most pressing concerns for your company? Select up to three. (Share of firms)\n\nNote: This question in the Business Leaders’ Pulse is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the third quarter of 2022.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse\nLast observation: October 31, 2023" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C3": { "label": "Mentions of plans for abnormally large price increases have decreased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C3", "description": "Size of price changes: Over the next 12 months, on average across the products and services you sell, the size of your price changes, in percent, will be: larger than normal, smaller than normal or roughly the same size as normal. Frequency of price changes: Over the next 12 months, on average across the products and services you sell, how often will you change selling prices: more frequently than normal, less frequently than normal or as frequently as normal? (Share of firms that are increasing prices)\n\nBusiness Leaders Pulse\nLast observation: December 31, 2023" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C4": { "label": "Demand and competitive pressures are weighing on firms’ price growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C4", "description": "Balance of opinion* on factors contributing to changes in output price growth over the next 12 months\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that these factors are increasing growth in output prices minus the percentage reporting that these factors are decreasing growth\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C5": { "label": "More firms saw outright sales declines over the past 12 months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C5", "description": "Over the past 12 months, did your firm’s sales volumes increase, stay the same or decrease? (Share of firms that said "decreased")\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C7": { "label": "Credit conditions are tightening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C7", "description": "Credit conditions (balance of opinion*): How have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed over the last three months compared with the previous three months? Credit availability (share of firms†): Overall, how would you characterize the availability of credit at the present time?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting credit conditions have tightened minus the percentage of firms reporting they have eased\n† This question was not asked in 2019Q4, 2020Q1 nor between 2020Q3 and 2022Q2.\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C8": { "label": "More firms plan to repair and replace equipment than expand operations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C8", "description": "What is the primary objective of your investment spending? (Multiple response options, share of firms)\n\nNote: Because respondents could select more than one option, shares sum to greater than 100%.\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2023Q4_C9": { "label": "Firms reported lower employment demand and less-intense labour shortages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2023Q4_C9", "description": "Intensity of labour shortages (balance of opinion*): Compared with 12 months ago, are labour shortages generally more intense, less intense or about the same intensity? Employment intentions (share of firms): Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be significantly higher or lower, somewhat higher or lower, or the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting more-intense labour shortages minus the percentage reporting less-intense shortages\nNote: Due to rounding, shares may not sum to 100%.\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q1": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1", "description": "Business sentiment and sales growth expectations have stopped falling, according to firms responding to the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. But demand remains subdued, which is allowing price pressures and the labour market to ease. As a result, fewer firms than in the previous survey are planning unusually large or frequent price increases over the next 12 months." }, "BOS_2024Q1_C1": { "label": "Business sentiment has improved slightly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (3-month moving average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%. March 2024 data are preliminary and range from March 1 to 20, 2024.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C10": { "label": "Expectations for significant increases in costs and selling prices are near normal levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C10", "description": "Input prices: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services purchased expected to increase significantly, increase slightly, remain the same, decrease slightly or decrease significantly? Output prices: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services sold expected to increase significantly, increase slightly, remain the same, decrease slightly or decrease significantly? (Share of firms)\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C11": { "label": "Share of firms planning unusually large or frequent price increases is declining steadily", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C11", "description": "Frequency of price changes: Over the next 12 months, on average across the products and services you sell, how often will you change selling prices: more frequently than normal, less frequently than normal or as frequently as normal? (Share of firms) Size of price changes: Over the next 12 months, on average across the products and services you sell, the size of your price changes, in percent, will be: larger than normal, smaller than normal or roughly the same size as normal. (Share of firms)\n\nA separate question is asked to determine the direction of price changes. Results shown are for firms planning to increase prices, expressed as a share of all firms. For frequency of price increases, firms with irregular pricing frequency and those who responded, “I don’t know” when asked about the frequency of their price changes are excluded from all calculations.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C12": { "label": "Short-term inflation expectations continue to gradually decline", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C12", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nBOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’' Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average expectation of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP. March 2024 BLP data are preliminary and range from March 1 to 20, 2024.\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C2": { "label": "Fewer firms are planning for a recession", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C2", "description": "Is your firm currently budgeting or planning with the assumption that a recession will occur in Canada over the next 12 months? (Share of all firms)\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C3": { "label": "Demand, costs and uncertainty remain firms’ top concerns", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C3", "description": "In the current quarter, which issues have been the most pressing concerns for your company? Select up to three. (Share of firms)\n\nThis question in the Business Leader’s Pulse is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the third quarter of 2022." }, "BOS_2024Q1_C5": { "label": "Firms are facing fewer significant capacity constraints", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C5", "description": "How would you rate your firm's current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales? (Share of firms)\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C6": { "label": "Investment intentions are weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C6", "description": "Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months? (Balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C7": { "label": "Firms no longer report tightening credit conditions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C7", "description": "How have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed over the past three months compared with the previous three months? (Balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting credit conditions have tightened minus the percentage of firms reporting they have eased\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C8": { "label": "Labour markets continue to ease", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C8", "description": "Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand? (Share of firms that responded “yes”) Intensity of labour shortages (balance of opinion*): Compared with 12 months ago, are labour shortages generally more intense, less intense or about the same intensity?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting more-intense labour shortages minus the percentage reporting less-intense labour shortages\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q1_C9": { "label": "Expected wage growth is slowing but remains unusually high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q1_C9", "description": "Wages (balance of opinion*): Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same as over the past 12 months? Average expected wage increase (year-over-year percentage change): What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q2": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2", "description": "Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse continue to signal weak demand, which is weighing on investment and hiring plans. While few firms are planning layoffs, labour markets are widely seen as continuing to soften. Although they remain above average, wage and inflation expectations are easing. Most firms that made abnormally large price increases in the past 12 months do not plan to do so again in the coming year." }, "BOS_2024Q2_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Business sentiment is still low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (3-month moving average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Slowing price growth suggests firms expect inflation to continue to decline", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C10", "description": "Input price growth: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? Selling price growth: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting prices to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting prices to increase at a lesser rate\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: The share of firms planning to make abnormally large price increases remains smaller than the share that made past large increases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C11", "description": "Size of price changes: Over the past 12 months (next 12 months), on average across the products and services you sell, has the size of your price changes been (will the size of your price changes be), in percent, larger than normal, smaller than normal or roughly the same size as normal? Frequency of price changes: Over the past 12 months (next 12 months), on average across the products and services you sell, have you changed (will you change) your selling prices more frequently than normal, less frequently than normal or as frequently as normal?\n\nNote: A separate question is asked to determine the direction of price changes. Results shown are for firms planning to increase prices, expressed as a share of all firms.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C12": { "label": "Chart 12: Inflation expectations have been generally flat quarter over quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C12", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Fewer firms are planning for a recession", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C2", "description": "Is your firm currently budgeting or planning with the assumption that a recession will occur in Canada over the next 12 months? (Share of all firms)\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Firms’ top concerns have shifted toward tax policies and regulations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C3", "description": "In the current quarter, which issues have been the most pressing concerns for your company? Select up to three. (Share of firms)\n\nNote: This question in the Business Leaders’ Pulse is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the third quarter of 2022.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Sales indicators have deteriorated for firms tied to discretionary consumer spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C5", "description": "Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Capacity constraints have returned close to their historical average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C6", "description": "How would you rate your firm's current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales?\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Weak demand is holding back firms’ plans to invest and hire", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C7", "description": "Investment spending: Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months? Number of employees: Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be higher, lower or the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\n† Percentage of firms expecting higher employment levels minus the percentage expecting lower employment levels\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Labour markets continue to ease", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C8", "description": "Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand? Intensity of labour shortages: Compared with 12 months ago, are labour shortages generally more intense, less intense or about the same intensity?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting more-intense labour shortages minus the percentage reporting less-intense labour shortages\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q2_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Wage growth expectations have declined significantly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q2_C9", "description": "Wage growth: Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same as over the past 12 months? Expected wage increase: What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q3": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q3", "description": "Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that inflationary pressures continue to ease. Firms feel appropriately equipped to meet current and anticipated soft demand. Their investment and hiring plans are therefore modest. Expectations for growth in wages, input costs and selling prices have continued to normalize as inflation has come down." }, "BOS_2024Q3_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Widespread softness is keeping the BOS indicator negative", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q3_C1", "description": "Contributions to BOS indicator (standardized units)\n\nNote: The BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main Business Outlook Survey (BOS) questions. Business activity indicators are those related to past sales declines, future sales growth, indicators of future sales, employment and investment. Price and cost indicators are those related to input and output price growth as well as credit conditions. Capacity indicators are those related to labour shortages, labour shortage intensity and the ability to meet demand.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q3_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Business sentiment remains subdued", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q3_C2", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (3-month moving average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q3_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Few firms report labour challenges", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q3_C4", "description": "Does your organization face shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand? (Share of firms that responded yes) What would be the most important obstacles/bottlenecks to being able to meet demand? (Share of firms that selected inability to find labour)\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q3_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Investment and hiring intentions remain weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q3_C5", "description": "Investment spending: Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months? Number of employees: Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be higher, lower or the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\n† Percentage of firms expecting higher employment levels minus the percentage expecting lower employment levels\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q3_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Firms expect wage growth to moderate gradually", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q3_C6", "description": "Wage growth: Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same as over the past 12 months? Expected wage increase: What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders' Pulse. In the BLP, for the expected wage increase, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“There will be a reduction in the average wage”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“The rate of increase will be 8% or higher”).\nThis question in the BLP is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the second quarter of 2022.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q3_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Firms expect inflation to be within the Bank of Canada’s target range at all horizons", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q3_C8", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q4": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4", "description": "Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that overall business conditions remain subdued, but firms are beginning to anticipate improvements in activity. Sales outlooks continue to show signs of improvement after a period of weakness. Yet many businesses still have spare capacity, which is reducing their need to expand. Firms expect cost growth, including wages, to soften further. Expectations for inflation moved slightly higher but remain within the Bank of Canada’s target range." }, "BOS_2024Q4_C1": { "label": "Business sentiment has remained subdued throughout 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (3-month moving average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C10": { "label": "Inflation expectations are slightly higher than last quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C10", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C1A": { "label": "Capital expenditures and production in the oil and gas sector are projected to increase in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C1A", "description": "Planned increases in capital expenditures and production for 2024–25 (percentage change)\n\nNote: Chart shows oil and natural gas producers with preliminary and announced plans for 2025. Firms are categorized based on the product that accounts for the largest share in their production mix.\n\nSources: Guidance announcements and quarterly reports from oil and gas firms and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C2": { "label": "The BOS indicator has improved but remains below average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C2", "description": "Contributions to BOS indicator (standardized units)\n\nNote: The BOS indicator is a summary measure of the main Business Outlook Survey (BOS) questions. Business activity indicators are those related to past sales declines, future sales growth, indicators of future sales, employment and investment. Price and cost indicators are those related to input and output price growth as well as credit conditions. Capacity indicators are those related to labour shortages, labour shortage intensity and the ability to meet demand.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C3": { "label": "Firms see a risk of higher prices and lower activity following the US election", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C3", "description": "Do you expect the outcome of the US election to affect any components of your business? If yes, do you expect the business component to be higher or lower than your outlook before the election?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting the component of their business to be higher minus the percentage expecting it to be lower\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C5": { "label": "Intentions to increase investment have become more prevalent", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C5", "description": "Investment spending: Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C6": { "label": "Most firms are not facing binding capacity constraints", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C6", "description": "Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand? Ability to meet demand: How would you rate your firm’s current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales?\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C7": { "label": "Hiring intentions remain soft", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C7", "description": "Number of employees: Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be significantly higher, somewhat higher, somewhat lower, significantly lower, or the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher employment levels minus the percentage expecting lower employment levels.\nNote: Responses of significantly higher employment levels and significantly lower employment levels are given twice the weight of responses of somewhat higher employment levels and somewhat lower employment levels. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C8": { "label": "Firms continue to expect wage and cost growth to ease", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C8", "description": "Wage growth: Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same as over the past 12 months? Input price growth: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? Expected wage increase: What do you expect your firm’s average wage increase to be next year?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases\n† Percentage of firms expecting input prices to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting input prices to increase at a lesser rate\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2024Q4_C9": { "label": "Firms expect selling price growth to stabilize", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2024Q4_C9", "description": "Selling price growth: Over the next 12 months, are the prices of your firm's products and services expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting selling prices to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting selling prices to increase at a lesser rate\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1", "description": "Business conditions have deteriorated due to the trade conflict with the United States, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Sales outlooks have softened, particularly for exporters. Firms reported having sufficient capacity, and many are delaying investment and hiring decisions amid uncertainty. Firms expect that widespread tariffs would raise costs and lead to higher selling prices. In this context, expectations for inflation are higher than they were last quarter." }, "BOS_2025Q1_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The BOS indicator has declined, mainly due to weaker outlooks for business activity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C1", "description": "Contributions to BOS indicator (standardized units)\n\nThe BOS indicator is a summary measure of results from key questions in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). Business activity indicators are those related to past sales declines, future sales growth, indicators of future sales, employment and investment. Price and cost indicators are those related to input and selling price growth as well as credit conditions. Capacity indicators are those related to labour shortages, labour shortage intensity and the ability to meet demand.\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Firms no longer expect input price increases to slow", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C10", "description": "Selling price growth: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? Input price growth: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting prices to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting prices to increase at a lesser rate\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Most businesses will raise their selling prices if tariffs impact their costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C11", "description": "If Canada and the United States introduce tariffs, will your input prices be affected? How much of this impact from tariffs or other trade-related policies are you planning to pass through to your selling prices in the next 12 months? (Share of firms)\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C12": { "label": "Chart 12: Inflation expectations increased again this quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C12", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nBOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Tariffs would put upward pressure on prices while reducing business activity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C1A", "description": "Areas of business already or expected to be affected by tariffs (share of firms and direction of impact)\n\nRespondents were not specifically asked about the areas of their business that have already been or are expected to be affected by tariffs. Results shown here are based on firms’ responses throughout each survey interview. With the exception of four firms, all respondents that were already being affected in one direction were also expecting a future impact in the same direction.\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: Expectations about the duration of possible tariffs vary widely across firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C1B", "description": "How long do you expect US and Canadian tariffs to be in place? (Share of firms)\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Business sentiment has deteriorated sharply", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C2", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (3-month moving average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Firms have softer sales outlooks as trade tensions stall the recent recovery", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C3", "description": "Sales growth: Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s sales volume expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting sales to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting sales to increase at a lesser rate\n† Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Firms expect growth in export sales to slow markedly as US tariffs loom", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C4", "description": "Past export and domestic sales growth: How have your export and domestic sales changed (in percent) over the past 12 months? Future export and domestic sales growth: How do you expect your export and domestic sales growth to change (in percent) over the next 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of exporting firms expecting export sales growth to increase minus the percentage expecting export sales growth to decrease\n† Percentage of exporting firms expecting domestic sales growth to increase minus the percentage expecting domestic sales growth to decrease\nRespondents were asked to provide four point estimates: past export sales growth, past domestic sales growth, expected future export sales growth and expected future domestic sales growth. Balances of opinion were then calculated based on the point estimates provided.\n\nBusiness Leaders' Pulse" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Most firms have spare capacity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C5", "description": "Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand? Ability to meet demand: How would you rate your firm’s current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales?\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Many firms are holding off on investments", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C6", "description": "Investment spending: Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: High uncertainty and low demand are weighing on investment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C7", "description": "Factors affecting investment spending\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Fewer firms are hiring", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C8", "description": "Number of employees: Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be higher, lower or the same? (Share of firms)\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q1_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Wage growth expectations have eased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q1_C9", "description": "Wage growth: Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same as over the past 12 months? Expected wage increase: What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases\nBOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question in the BLP is typically asked only one month each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the second quarter of 2022.\n\nBusiness Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2025Q2": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Second Quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2", "description": "Tariffs and related uncertainty continue to weigh on firms, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. While overall sales outlooks remain weak, outlooks for exports have recovered somewhat, with worst-case trade scenarios appearing less likely. Firms remain cautious in their hiring and investment plans. Some businesses reported cost pressures from tariffs, but competition and weak demand are constraining price pass-through to customers. In this context, firms’ short-term inflation expectations are lower than they were last quarter." }, "BOS_2025Q2_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Fewer firms than last quarter expect adverse impacts from tariffs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C1", "description": "Areas of business expected to be affected by tariffs (share of firms revising their outlook, and the direction of the revision)\n\nNote: In the 2025Q1 survey, responses were coded as what the firm expected if tariffs were in place. Because the tariffs were hypothetical at the time, firms could envision the degree and scope, which therefore varied across the sample. In 2025Q2, actual tariffs were in place, so responses were simply coded as what each firm expected relative to a scenario without tariffs. Note that respondents were not explicitly asked specific questions about the areas of their business they expect to be affected. Results shown here are based on firms’ responses and comments firms made throughout each survey interview." }, "BOS_2025Q2_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Firms expect stable growth in their selling prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C10", "description": "Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting prices to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting prices to increase at a lesser rate" }, "BOS_2025Q2_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Many firms are absorbing tariff costs through their margins", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C11", "description": "How is your business reacting to cost increases from trade tensions? (Share of firms that said they are facing higher costs)\n\n*Share is calculated using only firms that export.\nNote: Because respondents could select more than one option, shares total more than 100%." }, "BOS_2025Q2_C12": { "label": "Chart 12: Businesses’ short-term inflation expectations have returned to late-2024 levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C12", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP." }, "BOS_2025Q2_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Uncertainty is weighing on financial decisions, consumer spending and business investment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C1A", "description": "a. How consumers are responding to uncertainty Right now, is the difficulty predicting the future of the economy affecting your behaviour in one of the following ways? (Share of respondents)" }, "BOS_2025Q2_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C1B", "description": "b. How businesses are responding to uncertainty What are you doing differently, if anything, because of the current level of uncertainty in your outlook? (Share of firms)" }, "BOS_2025Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Business sentiment has improved from recent lows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C2", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (3-month moving average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "BOS_2025Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Firms’ indicators of future sales are weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C3", "description": "Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated" }, "BOS_2025Q2_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Outlooks for export sales have improved", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C4", "description": "Past export sales growth: How have your export sales changed (in percent) over the past 12 months? Future export sales growth: How do you expect your export sales growth to change (in percent) over the next 12 months? (Balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of exporting firms expecting export sales growth to increase minus the percentage expecting export sales growth to decrease\nNote: Respondents were asked to provide two point estimates: past export sales growth and expected future export sales growth. The balance of opinion was then calculated based on the point estimates provided." }, "BOS_2025Q2_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Most firms have sufficient capacity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C5", "description": "Ability to meet demand: How would you rate your firm’s current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales? Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand?" }, "BOS_2025Q2_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Investment plans are focused on maintaining existing capital", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C6", "description": "What is the primary objective for your investment spending? (2-quarter moving average, share of firms)\n\nNote: Because respondents could select more than one option, shares total more than 100%." }, "BOS_2025Q2_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: The majority of firms plan to keep employment steady", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C7", "description": "Number of employees: Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be higher, lower or the same? (Share of firms)" }, "BOS_2025Q2_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Wage growth expectations continue to trend lower", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C8", "description": "Expected wage increase: What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BLP, for the expected wage increase, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“There will be a reduction in the average wage”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“The rate of increase will be 8% or higher”). This question in the BLP is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the second quarter of 2022." }, "BOS_2025Q2_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Due to tariffs, firms now expect input price growth to accelerate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q2_C9", "description": "Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting prices to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting prices to increase at a lesser rate" }, "BOS_2025Q3": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Third Quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3", "description": "Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse reveal that firms’ outlooks and intentions remain subdued despite a gradual improvement in sentiment. Expectations for growth in domestic and export sales are still soft. Most firms do not plan to increase staffing, and investment intentions are restrained. While businesses continue to expect cost increases from tariffs and trade uncertainty, weak demand limits their ability to pass these costs through to prices. One-year-ahead inflation expectations remain below the peak reached earlier in the trade conflict." }, "BOS_2025Q3_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Business sentiment is gradually recovering from recent lows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (3-month moving average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "BOS_2025Q3_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Firms still expect input price growth to increase and selling price growth to remain stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C10", "description": "Selling price growth: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? Input price growth: Over the next 12 months, are prices of products and services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting prices to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting prices to increase at a lesser rate" }, "BOS_2025Q3_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Slightly fewer firms than last quarter have increased their selling prices because of trade tensions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C11", "description": "What changes have you recently seen in your business operations due to trade tensions? (Share of all firms)" }, "BOS_2025Q3_C12": { "label": "Chart 12: Firms’ short-term inflation expectations are lower than their peak reached in early 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C12", "description": "BOS estimate: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP." }, "BOS_2025Q3_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Ongoing, widespread softness keeps the BOS indicator negative this quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C2", "description": "Contributions to BOS indicator (standardized units)\n\nNote: The BOS indicator is a summary measure of results from key questions in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). Business activity indicators are those related to past sales declines, future sales growth, indicators of future sales, employment and investment. Price and cost indicators are those related to input and selling price growth as well as credit conditions. Capacity indicators are those related to labour shortages, labour shortage intensity and the ability to meet demand." }, "BOS_2025Q3_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Uncertainty remains the most pressing concern for firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C3", "description": "In the current quarter, what are the most pressing concerns for your company? Select up to three. (Share of all firms)\n\nNote: This question in the Business Leaders’ Pulse is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the third quarter of 2022. * The taxes and regulations category was expanded in February 2025 to include duties and tariffs on international trade." }, "BOS_2025Q3_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Subdued sales outlooks continue", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C4", "description": "Sales growth: Over the next 12 months, is your firm's sales volume expected to increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the past 12 months? Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting sales to increase at a greater rate minus the percentage expecting sales to increase at a lesser rate \n† Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated" }, "BOS_2025Q3_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Outlooks for export sales remain soft despite few businesses facing tariffs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C5", "description": "Indicators of future export sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) to customers outside Canada improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n*Percentage of businesses reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated" }, "BOS_2025Q3_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Firms continue to report few capacity constraints and labour shortages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C6", "description": "Ability to meet demand: How would you rate your firm's current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales? Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand?" }, "BOS_2025Q3_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Firms with weak sales outlooks are planning for lower investment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C7", "description": "Investment spending: Over the next 12 months, is your firm's investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months? Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n*Contributing share to the balance of opinion on investment spending\n†Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\nNote: Because non-responses are excluded from the contribution bars but included in the all-firm balance of opinion, the two measures may not align exactly for every quarter." }, "BOS_2025Q3_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Most businesses do not plan to hire new employees", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C8", "description": "Number of employees: Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be higher, lower or the same? (Share of firms)" }, "BOS_2025Q3_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Wage growth expectations continue to trend lower", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q3_C9", "description": "Wage growth: Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same as over the past 12 months? Expected wage increase: What do you expect your average wage increase to be next year?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BLP, for the expected wage increase, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“There will be a reduction in the average wage”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“The rate of increase will be 8% or higher”). This question in the BLP is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the second quarter of 2022." }, "BOS_2025Q4": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4", "description": "Firms’ sentiment remains subdued, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. After a weak year, domestic sales growth is expected to improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels, and they continue to prioritize investment spending on routine maintenance. Firms reported less pressure than last quarter from tariff-related cost increases. Most do not anticipate substantial increases in selling prices. Inflation expectations remain roughly stable between 2.5% and 3%." }, "BOS_2025Q4_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Sentiment is subdued but remains above the 2025 survey low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (Double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of “very good” business conditions and “very poor” business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of “good” business conditions and “poor” business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Fewer firms than last quarter expect significant increases in their input and selling prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C10", "description": "Input prices: Magnitude of change, share of firms expecting input prices to increase significantly Selling prices: Magnitude of change, share of firms expecting selling prices to increase significantly\n\nNote: When asked to compare input and selling prices over the next 12 months with those of the past 12 months (whether they would increase at a lesser rate, the same rate or a greater rate), respondents were also asked to quantify the magnitude of the change.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Firms’ inflation expectations remain above their long-run average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C11", "description": "BOS estimates: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: The energy sector plans to reduce its capital expenditures in 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C1A", "description": "Planned increases in capital expenditures and production for 2025–26 (percentage change)\n\nNote: Chart shows oil and natural gas producers with preliminary and announced plans for 2026. Firms are categorized based on the product that accounts for the largest share in their production mix.\n\nSources: Guidance announcements and quarterly reports on 2025–26 capital expenditures and production from individual energy firms and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Indicators of future sales have improved but remain below average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C2", "description": "Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Firms strongly impacted by US trade policies have weaker past and expected sales growth than other firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C3", "description": "Sales levels: Over the past (next) 12 months, did (will) your firm's sales volumes increase, stay the same, or decrease? Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that sales volumes have increased minus the percentage reporting that sales volumes have decreased\n† Percentage of firms reporting that indicators of future sales have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators of future sales have deteriorated\n‡ Percentage of firms reporting that they expect sales volumes to increase minus the percentage that expect sales volumes to decrease\nNote: The share of firms that reported they are strongly impacted by US trade policies is 33%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: A small but growing share of exporters reported increased sales to non-US markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C4", "description": "What changes have you recently seen in your business operations due to trade tensions? (Share of exporters)\n\nNote: Respondents that answered “I don't know” were excluded from the calculation.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Most firms reported no capacity constraints or labour shortages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C5", "description": "Ability to meet demand: How would you rate your firm's current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales? Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand?\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Firms’ investment intentions are nearing their historical average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C6", "description": "Investment spending: Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: In their investments, firms continue to prioritize routine maintenance over expansion", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C7", "description": "What is the primary objective for your investment spending? (Multiple response options, share of firms)\n\nNote: Because respondents could select more than one option, shares total more than 100%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: More firms than last quarter are planning to reduce the size of their workforce", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C8", "description": "Number of employees: Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be higher, lower or the same? (Share of firms)\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2025Q4_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Wage growth expectations are stabilizing after trending down for three years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2025Q4_C9", "description": "Expected wage increase: What do you expect your firm’s average wage increase to be over the next 12 months?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BLP, for the expected wage increase, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“There will be a reduction in the average wage”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“The rate of increase will be 8% or higher”). This question in the BLP is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the second quarter of 2022.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q1": { "label": "BOS_2026Q1", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1", "description": "BOS_2026Q1" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Business sentiment continues to recover from spring 2025 lows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (Quarterly average, double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of “very good” business conditions and “very poor” business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of “good” business conditions and “poor” business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Firms expect moderate increases in their input and selling prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C10", "description": "Input prices: Magnitude of input price growth Selling prices: Magnitude of selling price growth (Double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting price increases minus the percentage reporting price decreases. Responses of “significant” increase and “significant” decrease are given twice the weight of responses of “slight” increase and “slight” decrease. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Near-term expectations for inflation have edged up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C11", "description": "BOS estimates: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Firms’ inflation expectations have increased since the start of the war in the Middle East", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C1A", "description": "What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: Firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). Data from the last two weeks of the month were combined due to relatively small weekly sample sizes, resulting in a sample size comparable to each of the first two weeks.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Fewer firms report that trade tensions are affecting their sales and input prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C2", "description": "Sales levels: Are your sales currently affected, or do you expect them to be affected over the next 12 months, by tariffs or other trade tensions? Input prices: Are your input prices being affected, or do you expect them to be affected, by tariffs recently introduced—or expected to be introduced—by Canada, the United States or any other country? (Share of firms that reported current or expected impacts)\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Indicators of future sales have improved to their historical average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C3", "description": "Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Evidence that firms are diversifying trade away from the United States remains limited", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C4", "description": "What changes have you recently seen in your business operations due to trade tensions? (Share of exporters)\n\nNote: Respondents that answered “I don’t know” were excluded from the calculation.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Firms’ investment plans have picked up to their strongest level since trade tensions began", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C5", "description": "Investment spending: Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Investment intentions have increased sharply among firms unaffected by trade tensions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C6", "description": "Investment spending: Over the next 12 months, is your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment expected to be higher, lower or the same as over the past 12 months? Are your investment spending plans being impacted by trade tensions?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that investment spending will be higher minus the percentage of firms reporting that investment spending will be lower\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Firms’ employment intentions are normalizing after recent weakness", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C7", "description": "Number of employees: Over the next 12 months, will the number of employees (full-time equivalent) at your organization (in Canada) be higher, lower or the same? (Share of firms)\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Most firms reported no capacity constraints or labour shortages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C8", "description": "Ability to meet demand: How would you rate your firm’s current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales? Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand?\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q1_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Firms expect wage growth to continue to slow", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q1_C9", "description": "Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same as over the past 12 months?\n\n*Percentage of firms expecting higher labour cost increases minus the percentage expecting lower labour cost increases\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2": { "label": "July 2026 Business Outlook Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2", "description": "July 2026 Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Business sentiment has deteriorated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of “very good” business conditions and “very poor” business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of “good” business conditions and “poor” business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Expected wage growth is roughly unchanged", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C10", "description": "What do you expect your firm’s average wage increase to be over the next 12 months?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey and BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BLP, for the expected wage increase, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“There will be a reduction in the average wage”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“The rate of increase will be 8% or higher”). This question in the BLP is typically asked only one month in each quarter. The question was not asked in any month during the second quarter of 2022.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: More firms than last quarter expect their input and selling prices to increase", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C11", "description": "Input prices: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect the prices of products and services that your firm purchases over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same? Selling prices: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect the prices of products and services that your firm sells over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting prices to increase minus the percentage expecting prices to decrease. Responses of “increase significantly” and “decrease significantly” are given twice the weight of responses of “increase slightly” and “decrease slightly.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C12": { "label": "Chart 12: Firms expect tariffs and the war in the Middle East to raise input prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C12", "description": "Are your input prices affected, or do you expect them to be affected, by the ongoing war in the Middle East or tariffs and other trade policies? Share of firms (%)\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C13": { "label": "Chart 13: One-year-ahead inflation expectations eased after increasing sharply", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C13", "description": "BOS estimates: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. In the BOS, firms can select from predetermined ranges and also provide a point estimate. In a subset of cases, firms provide a range only, which can be closed or open. If the range is closed, we use the midpoint of the range. If the range is open, we use the average point estimate of other firms in that range. The value for each quarter is the trimmed mean, excluding the two highest and two lowest responses. In the BLP, firms can select from predetermined ranges, which can be open or closed. We use the midpoints of the closed ranges. We assign a value of -1% to responses in the lowest open-ended range (“deflation”) and 9% to responses in the highest open-ended range (“8% or higher”). This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey and Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Oil producers have revised up capital spending plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C1A", "description": "Planned increases in capital expenditure for 2026\n\nNote: The chart shows oil and natural gas producers with preliminary and announced spending plans for 2026. Firms are categorized based on the product that accounts for the largest share in their production mix.\n\nSources: Guidance announcements and quarterly reports on 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures and production from individual energy firms and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: Oil producers are increasing production in response to higher prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C1B", "description": "Planned increases in production for 2026\n\nNote: The chart shows oil and natural gas producers with preliminary and announced spending plans for 2026. Firms are categorized based on the product that accounts for the largest share in their production mix.\n\nSources: Guidance announcements and quarterly reports on 2025 and 2026 capital expenditures and production from individual energy firms and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Firms’ outlooks for prices have increased, while those for activity have weakened", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C2", "description": "Standardized units\n\nNote: The BOS activity indicator and BOS price indicator are summary measures of results from key questions in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). Results underlying the activity indicator are from questions about sales, investment spending and number of employees. Results underlying the prices indicator are from questions about wages, input prices, selling prices and inflation expectations.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Outlooks for business activity have improved for Prairie firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C3", "description": "Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same? (Balance of opinion*) Investment spending: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or the about same? (Balance of opinion†) Number of employees: Compared with today, do you expect your firm’s number of employees over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same? (Balance of opinion‡)\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated\n† Percentage of firms expecting investment spending to be higher minus the percentage expecting investment spending to be lower\n‡ Percentage of firms expecting number of employees to be higher minus the percentage expecting number of employees to be lower\n\nNote: The share of firms in the Prairies is 21%, and the share for the rest of Canada is 79%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Firms’ indicators of future sales have weakened slightly since last quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C4", "description": "Indicators of future sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: The war in the Middle East is weighing on firms’ sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C5", "description": "Contribution of each category* to the balance of opinion on indicators of future sales†\n\n* Firms were asked what factors are driving their sales expectations. The categories are based on firms that said the war in the Middle East is significantly affecting their expectations, either positively or negatively.\n\n† Firms were asked whether their recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) had improved, deteriorated or remained the same. The balance of opinion is calculated as the percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated.\n\nNote: The share of firms positively affected by the war in the Middle East is 7%, the share negatively affected is 22%, and the share unaffected is 70%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Indicators of future export sales have improved", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C6", "description": "Indicators of future export sales: Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) to customers outside Canada improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Firms’ employment plans have weakened, while investment plans remain strong", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C7", "description": "Investment spending: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or the about same? Number of employees: Compared with today, do you expect your firm’s number of employees over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting investment spending to be higher minus the percentage expecting investment spending to be lower\n† Percentage of firms expecting number of employees to be higher minus the percentage expecting number of employees to be lower\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: A minority of firms report capacity constraints or labour shortages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C8", "description": "Ability to meet demand: How would you rate your firm’s current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales? Labour shortages: Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand?\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q2_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Reports of supply chain issues have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q2_C9", "description": "Are supply chain disruptions or issues currently impacting your ability to source critical inputs?\n\nNote: From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2024, the question asked was, “Are supply chain disruptions currently affecting your business?” The wording was changed when the question was reintroduced in the second quarter of 2025. This question was not asked in the first quarter of 2025.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q3": { "label": "October 2026 Business Outlook Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3", "description": "October 2026 Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: More firms reported favourable business conditions than in the previous quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm?\n\n*Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of “very good” business conditions and “very poor” business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of “good” business conditions and “poor” business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Firms’ outlooks deteriorated after the collapse in trade talks and amid surging oil prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C1A", "description": "Business sentiment: Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? Export growth: Looking ahead, over the next 12 months, what do you expect the approximate percentage growth rate in your export sales to be? One-year-ahead inflation expectations: What do you expect the rate of inflation to be over the next 12 months?\n\n* Double weighted balance of opinion, calculated as the percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of “very good” business conditions and “very poor” business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of “good” business conditions and “poor” business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Leaders’ Pulse" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: Trade tensions are once again weighing on investment plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C1B", "description": "What changes have you recently seen in your capital expenditures due to ongoing trade tensions?" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C1C": { "label": "Chart 1-C: Since the breakdown in trade talks, more firms expect higher costs and selling prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C1C", "description": "What changes have you recently seen in your firm’s input costs and selling prices due to ongoing trade tensions?" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Firms’ indicators of future sales have strengthened", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C2", "description": "Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) improved, deteriorated or remained the same?" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C2A": { "label": "Chart 2-A: Since the onset of trade tensions, many firms have been adapting in response", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C2A", "description": "Is your firm taking or planning to take any of the following actions in response to tariffs or trade tensions? (Share of firms)" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Indicators of future export sales remain above average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C3", "description": "Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators of future sales (order books, advance bookings, sales inquiries, etc.) to customers outside Canada improved, deteriorated or remained the same?" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Firms’ investment plans remain robust, while employment outlooks are soft", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C4", "description": "Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same? Compared with today, do you expect your firm’s number of employees over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same?" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Capacity constraints have increased, but labour shortages remain limited", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C5", "description": "How would you rate your firm’s current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales? Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand?" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Expected wage growth is roughly unchanged and near the survey average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C6", "description": "What do you expect your firm’s average wage increase to be over the next 12 months?" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Expected growth in input and selling prices remains high despite easing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C7", "description": "Input prices: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect the prices of products and services that your firm purchases over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same? Selling prices: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect the prices of products and services that your firm sells over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same?" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Firms that have seen larger-than-normal cost increases plan to pass through more of these costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C8", "description": "To what extent have these larger-than-normal cost increases already been passed through to the prices you charge your customers? In 12 months from now, what share of these larger-than-normal cost increases do you expect to have passed through to the prices you charge your customers, including the amount you have already passed through? (Share of firms with larger-than-normal cost increases)" }, "BOS_2026Q3_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Near-term expectations for inflation have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_2026Q3_C9", "description": "BOS estimates: Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? BLP estimates: What do you expect the rate of annual inflation to be in about one, two and five years from now?" }, "BOS_ACTIVITY_PRICE_DATA": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey, activity and price indicators", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_ACTIVITY_PRICE_DATA", "description": "Standardized units\n\nThe BOS activity and price indicators are equal-weight averages of standardized survey questions. The activity indicator summarizes questions on sales, investment and hiring. The price indicator summarizes questions on input prices, selling prices, wages and inflation." }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER20230424": { "label": "Backgrounder on removing the past sales growth question from the Business Outlook Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER20230424", "description": "In the first quarter of 2023, Bank staff removed the question on past sales growth from the BOS questionnaire. This backgrounder outlines the reasons for the change and discusses its implications." }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER20230424_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Two questions on past sales generate a common signal", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER20230424_C1", "description": "Past sales growth (balance of opinion*): Over the past 12 months, did your firm’s sales volume increase at a greater, lesser or the same rate as over the previous 12 months? Past sales level (double-weighted balance of opinion†): Over the past 12 months, did your firm’s sales volume increase significantly, increase slightly, remain the same, decrease slightly or decrease significantly compared to the previous 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms reporting faster growth minus the percentage reporting slower growth\n† When calculating the balance in a double-weighted balance of opinion, "increase (decrease) significantly" responses are treated as twice the magnitude of "increase (decrease) somewhat" responses when calculating the balance. The range of potential outcomes is from -200% to 200%." }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER20230424_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Removing the past sales question has little impact on the BOS indicator", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER20230424_C2", "description": "Standardized units" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER20230424_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: The old and new BOS indicators show nearly identical results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER20230424_C3", "description": "Standardized units" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_INDICATOR_2026Q2": { "label": "Backgrounder on new summary indicators for the Business Outlook Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_INDICATOR_2026Q2", "description": "The Business Outlook Survey is introducing two new summary indicators—one measuring firms’ outlooks for business activity and another measuring their outlooks for price growth. This backgrounder explains how the indicators are constructed, why they were developed and how they relate to macroeconomic series of interest." }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_INDICATOR_2026Q2_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Separate indicators for activity and prices can provide clearer signals during economic shocks than the BOS indicator", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_INDICATOR_2026Q2_C1", "description": "Note: BOS is Business Outlook Survey. The BOS indicator and the new price and activity indicators were standardized before plotting to make their scales comparable. Specifically, they were rescaled to have a variance of one. As a result, BOS indicator values shown in this backgrounder differ from those published regularly on the Bank of Canada’s website" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_INDICATOR_2026Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The activity indicator tracks GDP more closely than the BOS indicator", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_INDICATOR_2026Q2_C2", "description": "Note: GDP is gross domestic product. BOS is Business Outlook Survey. The BOS indicator and the new price and activity indicators were standardized before plotting to make their scales comparable. Specifically, they were rescaled to have a variance of one. As a result, BOS indicator values shown in this backgrounder differ from those published regularly on[CH3.1] the Bank of Canada’s website." }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_INDICATOR_2026Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: The price indicator tracks CPI inflation more closely than the BOS indicator", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_INDICATOR_2026Q2_C3", "description": "Note: CPI is consumer price index. BOS is Business Outlook Survey. The BOS indicator and the new price and activity indicators were standardized before plotting to make their scales comparable. Specifically, they were rescaled to have a variance of one. As a result, BOS indicator values shown in this backgrounder differ from those published regularly on[CH4.1] the Bank of Canada’s website." }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2": { "label": "Backgrounder on the Business Outlook Survey questions on the magnitude of change in sales, investment, employment and prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2", "description": "In 2016 and 2017, the Bank of Canada added questions to the Business Outlook Survey on firms’ expectations for the magnitude of change in their sales volumes, number of employees, investment spending, input prices and selling prices. This backgrounder describes how the responses are aggregated and examines their relationship with macroeconomic and price measures." }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_A1": { "label": "Chart A-1: Investment spending, change and magnitude of change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_A1", "description": "Investment spending, change over next 12 months: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or the about same? Investment spending, magnitude of change: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or the about same? (Response options: significantly lower, somewhat lower, about the same, somewhat higher, significantly higher)\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting investment spending to be higher minus the percentage expecting investment spending to be lower.\n† Percentage of firms expecting investment spending to be higher minus the percentage expecting investment spending to be lower. Responses of “significantly higher” and “significantly lower” are given twice the weight of responses of “somewhat higher” and “somewhat lower.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_A2": { "label": "Chart A-2: Number of employees, change and magnitude of change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_A2", "description": "Number of employees, change over next 12 months: Compared with today, do you expect your firm’s number of employees over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same? Number of employees, magnitude of change: Compared with today, do you expect your firm’s number of employees over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same? (Response options: significantly lower, somewhat lower, about the same, somewhat higher, significantly higher)\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting number of employees to be higher minus the percentage expecting number of employees to be lower. \n† Percentage of firms expecting number of employees to be higher minus the percentage expecting number of employees to be lower. Responses of “significantly higher” and “significantly lower” are given twice the weight of responses of “somewhat higher” and “somewhat lower.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSource: Business Outlook Survey" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Sales volumes, magnitude of change, and GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C1", "description": "Sales volumes, magnitude of change: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s sales volumes over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting sales volumes to increase minus the percentage expecting sales volumes to decrease. Responses of “increase significantly” and “decrease significantly” are given twice the weight of responses of “increase slightly” and “decrease slightly.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Investment spending, magnitude of change, and growth of investment spending on machinery and equipment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C2", "description": "Investment spending, magnitude of change: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting investment spending to be higher minus the percentage expecting investment spending to be lower. Responses of “significantly higher” and “significantly lower” are given twice the weight of responses of “somewhat higher” and “somewhat lower.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Number of employees, magnitude of change, and SEPH employment growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C3", "description": "Number of employees, magnitude of change: Compared with today, do you expect your firm’s number of employees over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting number of employees to be higher minus the percentage expecting number of employees to be lower. Responses of “significantly higher” and “significantly lower” are given twice the weight of responses of “somewhat higher” and “somewhat lower.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\nNote: SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Input prices, magnitude of change, and IPPI inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C4", "description": "Input prices, magnitude of change: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect the prices of products and services that your firm purchases over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting input prices to increase minus the percentage expecting input prices to decrease. Responses of “increase significantly” and “decrease significantly” are given twice the weight of responses of “increase slightly” and “decrease slightly.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\nNote: IPPI is the Industrial Product Price Index.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Selling prices, magnitude of change, and CPI inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BACKGROUNDER_MAGNITUDE_2026Q2_C5", "description": "Selling prices, magnitude of change: Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect the prices of products and services that your firm sells over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting selling prices to increase minus the percentage expecting selling prices to decrease. Responses of “increase significantly” and “decrease significantly” are given twice the weight of responses of “increase slightly” and “decrease slightly.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\nNote: CPI is the consumer price index.\n\nSources: Business Outlook Survey, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "BOS_BYREGIONS": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGIONS", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_CAPACITY": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Capacity pressures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_CAPACITY", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_EMPLOYMENT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Employment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_EMPLOYMENT", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_FINANCING": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Credit conditions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_FINANCING", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_FUTURE_SALES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Future sales growth and indicators of future sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_FUTURE_SALES", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_INF_AT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in the Atlantic region", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_INF_AT", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_INF_BC": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in British Columbia", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_INF_BC", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_INF_ON": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in Ontario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_INF_ON", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_INF_PR": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in the Prairies region", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_INF_PR", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_INF_QC": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in Quebec", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_INF_QC", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_INPUT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Input prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_INPUT", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_INVEST": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Investment in machinery and equipment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_INVEST", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_LABOUR": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Labour shortages and labour shortage intensity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_LABOUR", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_OUTPUT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Output prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_OUTPUT", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_PAST_SALES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Past sales growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_PAST_SALES", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_PAST_SALES_DECLINES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Past sales declines", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_PAST_SALES_DECLINES", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYREGION_WAGES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by region (four quarter moving averages) - Wages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYREGION_WAGES", "description": "Regions are identified by province or defined as follows: the Atlantic region includes Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick; the Prairies region includes Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories; and the British Columbia region includes the province of British Columbia and the territory of Yukon. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTORS": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTORS", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_CAPACITY": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Capacity pressures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_CAPACITY", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_EMPLOYMENT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Employment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_EMPLOYMENT", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_FINANCING": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Credit conditions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_FINANCING", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_FUTURE_SALES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Future sales growth and indicators of future sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_FUTURE_SALES", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_CITU": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in the CITU sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_CITU", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_CPBS": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in the CPBS sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_CPBS", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_FIRE": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in the FIRE sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_FIRE", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_MANUFACT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in the manufacturing sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_MANUFACT", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_PRIMARY": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in the primary sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_PRIMARY", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_TRADE": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of firms in the trade sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_INF_TRADE", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_INPUT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Input prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_INPUT", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_INVEST": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Investment in machinery and equipment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_INVEST", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_LABOUR": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Labour shortages and labour shortage intensity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_LABOUR", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_OUTPUT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Output prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_OUTPUT", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_PAST_SALES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Past sales growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_PAST_SALES", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_PAST_SALES_DECLINES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Past sales declines", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_PAST_SALES_DECLINES", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSECTOR_WAGES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by sector (four quarter moving averages) - Wages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSECTOR_WAGES", "description": "Sectors are defined by the grouping of North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary sector: 11 and 21; manufacturing: 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four-quarter moving averages)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZES", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_CAPACITY": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Capacity pressures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_CAPACITY", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_EMPLOYMENT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Employment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_EMPLOYMENT", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_FINANCING": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Credit conditions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_FINANCING", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_FUTURE_SALES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four-quarter moving averages) - Future sales growth and indicators of future sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_FUTURE_SALES", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_INF_L": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of large firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_INF_L", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_INF_M": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of medium-sized firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_INF_M", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_INF_S": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Inflation expectations of small firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_INF_S", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_INPUT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Input prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_INPUT", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_INVEST": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Investment in machinery and equipment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_INVEST", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_LABOUR": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Labour shortages and labour shortage intensity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_LABOUR", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_OUTPUT": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Output prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_OUTPUT", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_PAST_SALES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four-quarter moving averages) - Past sales growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_PAST_SALES", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_PAST_SALES_DECLINES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four-quarter moving averages) - Past sales declines", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_PAST_SALES_DECLINES", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_BYSIZE_WAGES": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey—data by firm size (four quarter moving averages) - Wages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_BYSIZE_WAGES", "description": "Firm sizes are defined as follows: small firms have 10 to 99 employees, medium-sized firms have 100 to 499 employees, and large firms have 500 or more employees. Because the responses are presented here as four-quarter moving averages, these charts may not show the same movements as the aggregate BOS data published each quarter." }, "BOS_CHART_1": { "label": "PAST SALES GROWTH", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_1", "description": "Over the past 12 months, the rate of increase in your firm’s sales volume (compared with the previous 12 months) was…" }, "BOS_CHART_10": { "label": "CREDIT CONDITIONS", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_10", "description": "Over the past 3 months, how have the terms and conditions for obtaining financing changed (compared with the previous 3 months)?" }, "BOS_CHART_11": { "label": "BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY INDICATOR", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_11", "description": " " }, "BOS_CHART_2_FUTURE": { "label": "FUTURE SALES GROWTH", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_2_FUTURE", "description": "Over the next 12 months, the rate of increase in your firm’s sales volume (compared with the past 12 months) is expected to be…" }, "BOS_CHART_2_INDICATORS": { "label": "INDICATORS OF FUTURE SALES", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_2_INDICATORS", "description": "Compared with 12 months ago, have your recent indicators (order books, advanced bookings, sales inquiries, etc.)..." }, "BOS_CHART_3": { "label": "INVESTMENT IN MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_3", "description": "Over the next 12 months, your firm’s investment spending on M&E (compared with the past 12 months) is expected to be…" }, "BOS_CHART_4": { "label": "FUTURE EMPLOYMENT LEVEL", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_4", "description": "Over the next 12 months, your firm’s level of employment is expected to be…" }, "BOS_CHART_5": { "label": "ABILITY TO MEET DEMAND", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_5", "description": "How would you rate the current ability of your firm to meet an unexpected increase in demand?" }, "BOS_CHART_6_INTENSITY": { "label": "INTENSITY OF LABOUR SHORTAGES", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_6_INTENSITY", "description": "Compared with 12 months ago, are labour shortages generally …" }, "BOS_CHART_6_SHORTAGE": { "label": "LABOUR SHORTAGES", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_6_SHORTAGE", "description": "Does your firm face any shortages of labour that restrict your ability to meet demand?" }, "BOS_CHART_7": { "label": "INPUT PRICE INFLATION", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_7", "description": "Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services purchased expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year?" }, "BOS_CHART_8": { "label": "OUTPUT PRICE INFLATION", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_8", "description": "Over the next 12 months, are prices of products/services sold expected to increase at a greater, lesser, or the same rate as over the past year?" }, "BOS_CHART_9": { "label": "INFLATION EXPECTATIONS", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_CHART_9", "description": "Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index?" }, "BOS_COSTS": { "label": "Wage Growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_COSTS", "description": "Over the next 12 months, are increases in labour costs expected to be higher, lower or about the same rate as over the past 12 months?" }, "BOS_DATA_PAGE_2026Q2": { "label": "BOS data page updates 2026Q2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_DATA_PAGE_2026Q2", "description": "BOS data page updates 2026Q2" }, "BOS_EMPLOYMENT_MAGNITUDE_DATA": { "label": "Magnitude of change in future employment level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_EMPLOYMENT_MAGNITUDE_DATA", "description": "Compared with today, do you expect your firm’s number of employees over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting number of employees to be higher minus the percentage expecting number of employees to be lower. Responses of “significantly higher” and “significantly lower” are given twice the weight of responses of “somewhat higher” and “somewhat lower.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "BOS_FUTURESALES_MAGNITUDE_DATA": { "label": "Magnitude of change in future sales level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_FUTURESALES_MAGNITUDE_DATA", "description": "Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s sales volumes over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting sales volume to increase minus the percentage expecting sales volume to decrease. Responses of “increase significantly” and “decrease significantly” are given twice the weight of responses of “increase slightly” and “decrease slightly.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "BOS_INPUTPRICE_MAGNITUDE_DATA": { "label": "Magnitude of change in future input price level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_INPUTPRICE_MAGNITUDE_DATA", "description": "Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect the prices of products and services that your firm purchases over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting input prices to increase minus the percentage expecting input prices to decrease. Responses of “increase significantly” and “decrease significantly” are given twice the weight of responses of “increase slightly” and “decrease slightly.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "BOS_INVESTMENT_MAGNITUDE_DATA": { "label": "Magnitude of change in future investment level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_INVESTMENT_MAGNITUDE_DATA", "description": "Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect your firm’s investment spending on machinery and equipment over the next 12 months to be higher, lower or about the same?[\n\nPercentage of firms expecting investment increases minus the percentage expecting investment decreases. Responses of "significantly higher" and "significantly lower" are given twice the weight of responses of "slightly highly" and "slightly lower". The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "BOS_PASTSALES_MAGNITUDE_DATA": { "label": "Magnitude of change in past sales level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_PASTSALES_MAGNITUDE_DATA", "description": "Compared with 12 to 24 months ago, did your firm’s sales volumes over the past 12 months increase, decrease or remain the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms where sales volumes increased minus the percentage where sales volume decreased. Responses of "increased significantly" and "decreased significantly" are given twice the weight of responses of "increased slightly" and "decreased slightly". The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "BOS_PSD": { "label": "Past sales declines", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_PSD", "description": "" }, "BOS_REGIONAL_INDICATOR": { "label": "Regional Business Outlook Survey indicator, contributions by region", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_REGIONAL_INDICATOR", "description": "Regional Business Outlook Survey indicator, contributions by region" }, "BOS_SELLINGPRICE_MAGNITUDE_DATA": { "label": "Magnitude of change in future selling price level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/BOS_SELLINGPRICE_MAGNITUDE_DATA", "description": "Compared with the past 12 months, do you expect the prices of products and services that your firm sells over the next 12 months to increase, decrease or remain the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms expecting selling prices to increase minus the percentage expecting selling prices to decrease. Responses of “increase significantly” and “decrease significantly” are given twice the weight of responses of “increase slightly” and “decrease slightly.” The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "Business_Outlook_Survey": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/Business_Outlook_Survey", "description": "A summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with the senior management of about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product.\nThe survey's purpose is to gather the perspectives of these businesses on topics of interest to the Bank of Canada (such as demand and capacity pressures) and their forward-looking views on economic activity." }, "C10_CLAIMS": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_CENTRALEUR": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - Central Europe and Central Asia claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_CENTRALEUR", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_EASTASIA": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - East Asia and the Pacific claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_EASTASIA", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_FOREIGN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - Foreign currency on Canadian residents claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_FOREIGN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_LATINAMERICA": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - Latin America and Caribbean claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_LATINAMERICA", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_NORTHAFRICA": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - North Africa and Middle East claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_NORTHAFRICA", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_OFFSHORE": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - Offshore banking centers claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_OFFSHORE", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_SUBSAHARAN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - Sub-Saharan Africa claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_SUBSAHARAN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_TOTAL": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - Total booked claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_TOTAL", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_UNALLOCATED": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - Unallocated claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_UNALLOCATED", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_US": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - United States claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_US", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_CLAIMS_WESTERNEUR": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total claims on non-residents - Western Europe claims", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_CLAIMS_WESTERNEUR", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents ", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_CENTRALEUR": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - Central Europe and Central Asia liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_CENTRALEUR", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_EASTASIA": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - East Asia and the Pacific liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_EASTASIA", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_FOREIGN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - Foreign currency on Canadian residents liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_FOREIGN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_LATINAMERICA": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims and liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - Latin America and Caribbean liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_LATINAMERICA", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_NORTHAFRICA": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - North Africa and Middle East liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_NORTHAFRICA", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_OFFSHORE": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - Offshore banking centers liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_OFFSHORE", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_SUBSAHARAN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - Sub-Saharan Africa liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_SUBSAHARAN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_TOTAL": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - Total booked liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_TOTAL", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_UNALLOCATED": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - Unallocated liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_UNALLOCATED", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_US": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - United States liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_US", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_LIABILITIES_WESTERNEUR": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents - Total liabilities to non-residents - Western Europe liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_LIABILITIES_WESTERNEUR", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C10_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total claims and liabilities booked worldwide vis-à-vis non-residents", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C10_QUARTERLY", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C1_MONTHLY": { "label": "Chartered bank selected assets: Month-end", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C1_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C2_MONTHLY": { "label": "Chartered bank selected liabilities: Month-end", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C2_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C3_MONTHLY": { "label": "Historical chartered bank assets: Month-end", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C3_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C4_MONTHLY": { "label": "Historical chartered bank liabilities and shareholders", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C4_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C5_BN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected assets - Bank notes and coin other than gold and silver bullion", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C5_BN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C5_CUSTOMERSLIABILITY": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected assets - Customers' liability under acceptances", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C5_CUSTOMERSLIABILITY", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C5_LBE": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected assets - Land, building and equipment less accumulated depreciation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C5_LBE", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C5_MORTGAGES": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected assets - Mortgages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C5_MORTGAGES", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "C5_NONMORTGAGELOANS": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected assets - Non-mortgage loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C5_NONMORTGAGELOANS", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "C5_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected assets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C5_QUARTERLY", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C5_SECURITIES": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected assets - Securities issued or guaranteed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C5_SECURITIES", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "C6_ACCEPTANCES": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected liabilities - Acceptances", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C6_ACCEPTANCES", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C6_LIABILITIES": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected liabilities - Liabilities of subsidiaries, other than deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C6_LIABILITIES", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C6_NONCONTROLLING": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected liabilities - Non-controlling interests in subsidiaries", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C6_NONCONTROLLING", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C6_NONPERSONAL": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected liabilities - Non-personal deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C6_NONPERSONAL", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C6_PERSONAL": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected liabilities - Personal deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C6_PERSONAL", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars\n" }, "C6_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Chartered banks: Regional distribution of selected liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C6_QUARTERLY", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C7_CANADIAN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Classification of non-mortgage loans - Canadian dollar loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C7_CANADIAN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C7_FOREIGN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Classification of non-mortgage loans - Foreign currency loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C7_FOREIGN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C7_GRAPH": { "label": "Chartered banks: Classification of non-mortgage loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C7_GRAPH", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C7_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Chartered banks: Classification of non-mortgage loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C7_QUARTERLY", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "C8_MONTHLY": { "label": "Historical chartered bank assets and liabilities: Selected seasonally adjusted series", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C8_MONTHLY", "description": "Monthly average, Millions of dollars" }, "C9_MONTHLY": { "label": "Chartered banks: Total foreign currency assets and liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/C9_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "CANADA_MORTGAGE_BOND": { "label": "Canada Mortgage Bond", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CANADA_MORTGAGE_BOND", "description": "Canada Mortgage Bond" }, "CBPP_OPERATION": { "label": "Corporate Bond Purchase Program", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CBPP_OPERATION", "description": "Corporate Bond Purchase Program" }, "CBPP_REPORTING": { "label": "Reporting", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CBPP_REPORTING", "description": "Reporting" }, "CBPP_TRANSACTION_DATA": { "label": "Corporate Bond Purchase Program, transaction level data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CBPP_TRANSACTION_DATA", "description": "Corporate Bond Purchase Program, transaction level data" }, "CEER": { "label": "CEER", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CEER", "description": "The Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index measures the external value of the Canadian dollar against a basket of currencies most important to Canada’s international trade. It is published as an indicator of the overall strength or weakness of the Canadian dollar relative to its major trading partners." }, "CEER_DAILY": { "label": "CEER daily", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CEER_DAILY", "description": "The daily nominal value of the Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index." }, "CEER_EXPORT_WEIGHTS": { "label": "CEER export weights", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CEER_EXPORT_WEIGHTS", "description": "The weights assigned to each country in the calculation of the Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index, based on the value of Canadian exports to those countries. These weights reflect the relative importance of each trading partner in the export component of the index." }, "CEER_IMPORT_WEIGHTS": { "label": "CEER import weights", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CEER_IMPORT_WEIGHTS", "description": "The weights assigned to each country in the calculation of the Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index, based on the value of Canadian imports from those countries. These weights reflect the relative importance of each trading partner in the import component of the index." }, "CEER_MONTHLY_NOMINAL": { "label": "CEER monthly nominal", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CEER_MONTHLY_NOMINAL", "description": "The monthly nominal value of the Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index. This series measures the value of the Canadian dollar against a basket of major currencies, without adjusting for inflation." }, "CEER_MONTHLY_REAL": { "label": "CEER monthly real", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CEER_MONTHLY_REAL", "description": "The monthly real value of the Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index. This series measures the value of the Canadian dollar against a basket of major currencies, adjusted for inflation." }, "CEER_THIRD-MARKET_COMPETITION_WEIGHTS": { "label": "CEER third-market competition weights", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CEER_THIRD-MARKET_COMPETITION_WEIGHTS", "description": "The weights assigned to each country in the calculation of the Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index, based on third-market competition. These weights reflect the relative importance of each currency in third-market competition as determined for the index." }, "CEER_TOTAL_WEIGHTS": { "label": "CEER total weights", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CEER_TOTAL_WEIGHTS", "description": "The weights assigned to each currency in the calculation of the Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index. These weights reflect the relative importance of each currency in the overall index." }, "CES_2020Q2_C1": { "label": "Consumers plan to concentrate on essentials", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2020Q2_C1", "description": "Question: After situation normalizes, relative to your spending before COVID-19 outbreak, do you expect that your spending on the following will be...\n\nSource: Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, Bank of Canada calculations" }, "CES_2020Q2_C2": { "label": "A large share of consumers changed their shopping habits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2020Q2_C2", "description": "Question: Have your shopping habits changed since the outbreak of COVID-19?\n\nSource: Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, Bank of Canada calculations" }, "CES_2020Q3_C1A": { "label": "Households with higher income were more likely to report increased savings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2020Q3_C1A", "description": "Question: Have your overall savings increased more than usual since the COVID-19 outbreak happened?" }, "CES_2020Q3_C1B": { "label": "Households reported that they will keep most of their additional savings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2020Q3_C1B", "description": "Question: What are you planning to do with your extra savings?" }, "CES_2020Q4_C1A": { "label": "Some consumers will spend more on discretionary goods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2020Q4_C1A", "description": "What best describes the alternative way you plan to use the money that you had planned to spend? Share of respondents by income group, percent" }, "CES_2020Q4_C1B": { "label": "Canadians used the Canada Emergency Response Benefit to spend, pay down debt and save", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2020Q4_C1B", "description": "Share of CERB by income group, percent" }, "CES_2021Q1_C1A": { "label": "Caution is expected even after vaccination", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q1_C1A", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you planning to take when the majority of Canadians have received their COVID-19 vaccine? Share of respondents" }, "CES_2021Q1_C1B": { "label": "Spending on high-contact services is expected to increase the most after vaccination", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q1_C1B", "description": "Do you expect that your spending on the following will be higher/ lower/ the same when the majority of Canadians have received their COVID-19 vaccine? Balance of opinion*\n\n* Percentage of respondents reporting higher spending minus the percentage reporting lower spending" }, "CES_2021Q2_C1A": { "label": "Consumers are likely to spend more than one-third of their extra savings on average over the next two years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q2_C1A", "description": "How do you plan to use your extra savings? Average share, percent" }, "CES_2021Q2_C1B": { "label": "High-contact services should see the greatest increase in consumer spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q2_C1B", "description": "When the majority of Canadians have received their COVID-19 vaccine, do you expect that your spending on the following will be higher/same/lower than last year?\nBalance of opinion*\n* Percentage of respondents reporting higher spending minus the percentage reporting lower spending\n" }, "CES_2021Q3_C1A": { "label": "Many job seekers* would like to move to a new industry", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q3_C1A", "description": "Would you like to have a job in the same industry as your current/last job?\n* Job seekers include unemployed people and people looking to switch to a new job or find an additional job." }, "CES_2021Q3_C2": { "label": "Expected spending growth on high-contact services has slowed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q3_C2", "description": "Now that the majority of Canadians have received their COVID-19 vaccines, do you expect that the volumes of your purchases on the following will be higher/same/lower over the next 12 months? Balance of opinion*\n* Percentage of respondents reporting higher spending minus the percentage reporting lower spending." }, "CES_2021Q3_C2A": { "label": "Visible minorities, Indigenous people and people with disabilities report more precarious job situations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q3_C2A", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave/lose your job during the next 12 months?" }, "CES_2021Q4_C10": { "label": "Expected growth of spending on in-person services has eased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q4_C10", "description": "Do you expect that the volumes of your purchases on the following will be higher/same/lower over the next 12 months than now? Balance of opinion*\n* Percentage of respondents reporting higher spending minus the percentage reporting lower spending" }, "CES_2021Q4_C2": { "label": "People are more concerned about inflation than they were before the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q4_C2", "description": "Compared with before the pandemic, how has your view on inflation changed?" }, "CES_2021Q4_C3": { "label": "Canadians think inflation has become more difficult to control", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q4_C3", "description": "Do you think the pandemic has impacted authorities' ability to control inflation in Canada?" }, "CES_2021Q4_C5": { "label": "Most workers' pay is not adjusted for inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q4_C5", "description": "Is your pay adjusted for inflation?" }, "CES_2021Q4_C6": { "label": "New hires expect larger wage gains than long-time employees do", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q4_C6", "description": "Interpolated medians of wage expectations by job tenure" }, "CES_2021Q4_C8": { "label": "Overall, people are working more hours than they want to", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2021Q4_C8", "description": "Thinking about the past week (Monday to Sunday), how many hours did you work at all your jobs/businesses combined? How many hours would you like to have worked last week? Average number of actual hours worked minus average number of desired hours per week" }, "CES_2022Q1_C10": { "label": "It is becoming harder for some people to make their debt payments.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2022Q1_C10", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will NOT be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payments on credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages, or any other debt you may have)? (interpolated median)" }, "CES_2022Q1_C2": { "label": "Supply chain issues is the main factor affecting ability to control inflation.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2022Q1_C2", "description": "Which factor has affected authorities’ ability to control inflation the most in Canada?" }, "CES_2022Q1_C3": { "label": "Most Canadians expect supply chain issues to last at least 1-2 years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2022Q1_C3", "description": "When do you expect that this issue will stop affecting inflation? share of respondents, percent" }, "CES_2022Q1_C5": { "label": "Wages of majority of workers were adjusted at arate below inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2022Q1_C5", "description": "What was your wage adjustment? (share of respondents who experienced a wage adjustment recently)" }, "CES_2022Q1_C6": { "label": "Many workers are not satisfied with their wage gains.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2022Q1_C6", "description": "Considering the current economic situation, how satisfied are you with your recent wage adjustment? (share of respondents)" }, "CES_2022Q1_C7": { "label": "Wage expectations are higher among those with a greater ability to negotiate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2022Q1_C7", "description": "By about what percent have your earnings increased over the past 12 months? By about what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased) in the next 12 months? (interpolated median)" }, "CES_2022Q1_C9": { "label": "Interest rate increases are likely to dampen spending.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_2022Q1_C9", "description": "Over the next 12 months, by what percent do you expect your total household spending to increase (decrease)?" }, "CES_C1": { "label": "Consumers reported a slight easing in their short- and long-term inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C1", "description": "Consumers reported a slight easing in their short- and long-term inflation expectations" }, "CES_C10": { "label": "Planned major purchases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C10", "description": "Next six months: Do you plan to make any major purchases (excluding homes or financial investments) in the next six months?" }, "CES_C10_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Planned major purchases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C10_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Next six months: Do you plan to make any major purchases (excluding homes or financial investments) in the next six months?" }, "CES_C11": { "label": "Moving, selling or buying intentions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C11", "description": "Probability of moving: For example, what do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence (that is, the place where you usually live)? Probability of selling: What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months, you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Buying intentions: Are you planning or thinking of buying a house or a condo now or have you bought one during the last year?" }, "CES_C11_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Moving, selling or buying intentions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C11_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Probability of moving: For example, what do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence (that is, the place where you usually live)? Probability of selling: What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months, you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Buying intentions: Are you planning or thinking of buying a house or a condo now or have you bought one during the last year?" }, "CES_C12": { "label": "Actions in light of inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C12", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking, or planning to take, in light of your expectations of inflation (deflation) over the next two years?" }, "CES_C12_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Actions in light of inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C12_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking, or planning to take, in light of your expectations of inflation (deflation) over the next two years?" }, "CES_C13": { "label": "Actions in light of interest rate expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C13", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking, or planning to take, in light of your expectations for interest rates?" }, "CES_C13_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Actions in light of interest rate expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C13_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking, or planning to take, in light of your expectations for interest rates?" }, "CES_C14": { "label": "Probability of missing debt payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C14", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will NOT be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payments on credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages, or any other debt you may have)?" }, "CES_C14_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Probability of missing debt payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C14_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will NOT be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payments on credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages, or any other debt you may have)?" }, "CES_C15": { "label": "Financial well-being", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C15", "description": "Previous 12 months: Do you think you (and any family living with you) are financially better or worse off these days than you were 12 months ago? Next 12 months: And looking ahead, do you think you (and any family living with you) will be financially better or worse off 12 months from now than you are these days?" }, "CES_C15_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Financial well-being", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C15_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Previous 12 months: Do you think you (and any family living with you) are financially better or worse off these days than you were 12 months ago? Next 12 months: And looking ahead, do you think you (and any family living with you) will be financially better or worse off 12 months from now than you are these days?" }, "CES_C16": { "label": "Access to credit", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C16", "description": "Previous 12 months: Compared to 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier these days for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages)? Next 12 months: And looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now it will generally be harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages) than it is these days?" }, "CES_C16_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Access to credit", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C16_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Previous 12 months: Compared to 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier these days for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages)? Next 12 months: And looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now it will generally be harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, and mortgages) than it is these days?" }, "CES_C1A": { "label": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by age group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C1A", "description": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by age group" }, "CES_C1B": { "label": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by education level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C1B", "description": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by education level" }, "CES_C1C": { "label": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by income level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C1C", "description": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by income level" }, "CES_C1D": { "label": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by numeracy level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C1D", "description": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by numeracy level" }, "CES_C1E": { "label": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by province", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C1E", "description": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by province" }, "CES_C1F": { "label": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by marginalized group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C1F", "description": "Inflation expectations and perceptions by marginalized group" }, "CES_C1_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Inflation expectations and perceptions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C1_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months?" }, "CES_C2": { "label": "Most consumers expect inflation to be within or close to the Bank's inflation-control range", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C2", "description": "Most consumers expect inflation to be within or close to the Bank's inflation-control range" }, "CES_C2_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Inflation expectations: uncertainty", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C2_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "In your view, what would you say is the percent chance that, over the next 12 (24) months, the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...? (For example, there is ___ percent chance that the rate of inflation or deflation will be between 0% and 2%, 2% and 4% ...)" }, "CES_C3": { "label": "Consumers' expections for their wage growth increased slightly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C3", "description": "Consumers' expections for their wage growth increased slightly" }, "CES_C3A": { "label": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by age group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C3A", "description": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by age group" }, "CES_C3B": { "label": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by education level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C3B", "description": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by education level" }, "CES_C3C": { "label": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by income level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C3C", "description": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by income level" }, "CES_C3D": { "label": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by numeracy level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C3D", "description": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by numeracy level" }, "CES_C3E": { "label": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by province", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C3E", "description": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by province" }, "CES_C3F": { "label": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by marginalized group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C3F", "description": "Wage growth expectations and perceptions by marginalized group" }, "CES_C3_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Wage growth expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C3_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months?" }, "CES_C4": { "label": "Expected probabilities of leaving and losing a job are at survey highs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C4", "description": "Expected probabilities of leaving and losing a job are at survey highs" }, "CES_C4A": { "label": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by age group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C4A", "description": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by age group" }, "CES_C4B": { "label": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by education level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C4B", "description": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by education level" }, "CES_C4C": { "label": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by income level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C4C", "description": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by income level" }, "CES_C4D": { "label": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by numeracy level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C4D", "description": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by numeracy level" }, "CES_C4E": { "label": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by province", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C4E", "description": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by province" }, "CES_C4F": { "label": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by marginalized group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C4F", "description": "Expected probabilities of losing, leaving and finding a job by marginalized group" }, "CES_C4_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Labour turnover", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C4_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Probability of losing job: What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? Probability of leaving job voluntarily: What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Probability of finding job: Suppose you were to lose your job. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months you would find a job that you would accept?" }, "CES_C5": { "label": "Consumers expect their spending growth to outpace their income growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C5", "description": "Consumers expect their spending growth to outpace their income growth" }, "CES_C5A": { "label": "Expected income and spending growth by age group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C5A", "description": "Expected income and spending growth by age group" }, "CES_C5B": { "label": "Expected income and spending growth by education level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C5B", "description": "Expected income and spending growth by education level" }, "CES_C5C": { "label": "Expected income and spending growth by income level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C5C", "description": "Expected income and spending growth by income level" }, "CES_C5D": { "label": "Expected income and spending growth by numeracy level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C5D", "description": "Expected income and spending growth by numeracy level" }, "CES_C5E": { "label": "Expected income and spending growth by province", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C5E", "description": "Expected income and spending growth by province" }, "CES_C5F": { "label": "Expected income and spending growth by marginalized group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C5F", "description": "Expected income and spending growth by marginalized group" }, "CES_C5_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Household income and spending expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C5_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Income growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect your total household income* to increase (decrease)? Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of your household to increase (decrease)? Inflation expectations: Over the next 12 months, what do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be?" }, "CES_C6": { "label": "Consumers' expectations of interest rates two years from now declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C6", "description": "Consumers' expectations of interest rates two years from now declined" }, "CES_C6_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Interest rate expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C6_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "At what level do you think interest rates on things such as mortgages, bank loans and savings will be in one year/two years/five years from now?" }, "CES_C7": { "label": "House price growth expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C7", "description": "By about what percent do you expect the average home price in your area to increase (decrease)?" }, "CES_C8": { "label": "Components of inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C8", "description": "Twelve months from now, by how much do you expect prices to have changed for the following items?" }, "CES_C8_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Components of inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C8_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "Twelve months from now, by how much do you expect prices to have changed for the following items?" }, "CES_C9": { "label": "Economic outlook", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C9", "description": "What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CES_C9_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Economic outlook", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_C9_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CES_DEMOGRAPHICS": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Survey Data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CES_DEMOGRAPHICS", "description": "View data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE)—a quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances." }, "CHARTERED_BANK_INTEREST": { "label": "Interest rates posted for selected products by the major chartered banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CHARTERED_BANK_INTEREST", "description": "Weekly Wednesday data showing the interest rates (in percent) posted by the major chartered banks in Canada for selected financial products. Rates presented are the most typical of those offered by the six major chartered banks." }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE": { "label": "Climate transition scenario data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE", "description": "Climate transition scenario data" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C3": { "label": "Global GDP-weighted shadow carbon price", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C3", "description": " " }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C4": { "label": "Global greenhouse gas emissions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C4", "description": " " }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C7A": { "label": "Global emissions by sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C7A", "description": "Baseline (2019 policies)" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C7B": { "label": "Global emissions by sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C7B", "description": "Below 2°C immediate" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C7C": { "label": "Global emissions by sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C7C", "description": "Below 2°C delayed" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C7D": { "label": "Global emissions by sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C7D", "description": "Net-zero 2050 (1.5°C)" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C8A": { "label": "Global primary energy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C8A", "description": "Baseline (2019 policies)" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C8B": { "label": "Global primary energy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C8B", "description": "Below 2°C immediate" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C8C": { "label": "Global primary energy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C8C", "description": "Below 2°C delayed" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C8D": { "label": "Global primary energy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C8D", "description": "Net-zero 2050 (1.5°C)" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C9A": { "label": "Global secondary energy | electricity generation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C9A", "description": "Baseline (2019 policies)" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C9B": { "label": "Global secondary energy | electricity generation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C9B", "description": "Below 2°C immediate" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C9C": { "label": "Global secondary energy | electricity generation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C9C", "description": "Below 2°C delayed" }, "CLIMATE_CHANGE_C9D": { "label": "Global secondary energy | electricity generation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CLIMATE_CHANGE_C9D", "description": "Net-zero 2050 (1.5°C)" }, "CMB_PURCH": { "label": "CMB Completed Purchases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CMB_PURCH", "description": "CMB Completed Purchases" }, "CMB_PURCH_HOLD": { "label": "CMB Purchase Holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CMB_PURCH_HOLD", "description": "CMB Purchase Holdings" }, "CORRA": { "label": "Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA", "description": "Canada’s risk-free rate, measuring the cost of overnight general collateral funding in Canadian dollars using Government of Canada treasury bills and bonds as collateral for repurchase transactions. The Bank of Canada provides CORRA as a public good, at no cost to users and data distributors." }, "CORRA_COMPOUNDED_INDEX": { "label": "CORRA Compounded Index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_COMPOUNDED_INDEX", "description": "A measure of the cumulative impact of CORRA compounding over time. This index is provided for informational purposes only." }, "CORRA_GRAPH": { "label": "Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_GRAPH", "description": "The daily published series showing CORRA and the associated trimmed trading volume." }, "CORRA_METRICS": { "label": "CORRA rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_METRICS", "description": "A set of statistical measures related to the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA)." }, "CORRA_NOTE_20250228": { "label": "The Uses and Limitations of CORRA Transparency Metrics: Beyond Percentiles and Volumes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_NOTE_20250228", "description": "The Uses and Limitations of CORRA Transparency Metrics: Beyond Percentiles and Volumes" }, "CORRA_NOTE_20250228_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: CORRA distribution of transactions on August 7, 2024—mean exceeds CORRA setting by more than 1 basis point", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_NOTE_20250228_C1", "description": "" }, "CORRA_NOTE_20250228_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: CORRA distribution of transactions on August 8, 2024—CORRA increases by 3 basis points", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_NOTE_20250228_C2", "description": "" }, "CORRA_NOTE_20250228_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: CORRA distribution of transactions on August 9, 2024—mode remains unchanged at 4.53%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_NOTE_20250228_C3", "description": "" }, "CORRA_NOTE_20250228_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: CORRA distribution of transactions on August 12, 2024—CORRA decreases back to 4.53%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_NOTE_20250228_C4", "description": "" }, "CORRA_TRANSPARENCY": { "label": "CORRA: summary of errors detected after publication", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_TRANSPARENCY", "description": "Information on the frequency of errors that were detected after the CORRA republication deadline and that had an impact on CORRA of at least 1 basis point, as well as the source of these errors. " }, "CORRA_TRANSPARENCY_METRICS": { "label": "CORRA transparency metrics", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CORRA_TRANSPARENCY_METRICS", "description": "A set of measures that enhance transparency about the shape of the distribution of trades used in the calculation of the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA)." }, "COVID-19_STRINGENCY_INDEX": { "label": "COVID-19 stringency index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/COVID-19_STRINGENCY_INDEX", "description": "" }, "COVID-19_STRINGENCY_INDEX_BY_PROVINCE": { "label": "COVID-19 stringency index by province", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/COVID-19_STRINGENCY_INDEX_BY_PROVINCE", "description": "" }, "COVID-19_STRINGENCY_INDEX_BY_REGION": { "label": "COVID-19 stringency index by region", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/COVID-19_STRINGENCY_INDEX_BY_REGION", "description": "" }, "CPI_MONTHLY": { "label": "Consumer Price Index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CPI_MONTHLY", "description": "The monthly series group that includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its core inflation measures, such as CPI-trim and CPI-median." }, "CPPP_TRANSACTION_DATA": { "label": "Commercial Paper Purchase Program, transaction level data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CPPP_TRANSACTION_DATA", "description": "Commercial Paper Purchase Program, transaction level data" }, "CSCE": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE", "description": "A quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada." }, "CSCEDATAPAGE_20240313": { "label": "CSCE data page charts 8/9", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCEDATAPAGE_20240313", "description": "CSCE data page charts 8/9" }, "CSCEDATAPAGE_20240313_C1": { "label": "Chart 8: Components of inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCEDATAPAGE_20240313_C1", "description": "Twelve months from now, by how much do you expect prices to have changed for the following items?" }, "CSCEDATAPAGE_20240313_C2": { "label": "Chart 9: Economic outlook", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCEDATAPAGE_20240313_C2", "description": "What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCEDATAPAGE_20240619": { "label": "CSCE data page charts 8/9", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCEDATAPAGE_20240619", "description": "CSCE data page charts 8/9" }, "CSCEDATAPAGE_20240619_C1": { "label": "Chart 8: Components of inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCEDATAPAGE_20240619_C1", "description": "Twelve months from now, by how much do you expect prices to have changed for the following items?" }, "CSCEDATAPAGE_20240619_C2": { "label": "Chart 9: Economic outlook", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCEDATAPAGE_20240619_C2", "description": "What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2020Q4": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2020Q4", "description": "A quarterly survey aimed at measuring household views of inflation, the labour market and household finances, as well as topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada." }, "CSCE_2021Q3": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2021Q3", "description": "This survey took place in the third quarter of 2021, after most Canadians had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and as the Delta variant was beginning to spread more broadly in Canada. Results suggest that consumers plan to increase their spending significantly but remain cautious because of the Delta variant. Canadians think inflation will be higher in the near term due to supply disruptions, but they do not expect this situation to last. Although expectations for labour market conditions improved again, visible minorities, Indigenous people and people with disabilities are showing signs of vulnerabilities. Canadians are not expecting significant wage gains despite recent improvements in the labour market and perceptions of higher inflation." }, "CSCE_2021Q4": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2021Q4", "description": "This survey took place in November 2021 before the Omicron variant of COVID-19 began spreading broadly in Canada. In December, the number of COVID-19 cases rose dramatically and governments began to reimpose containment measures. Many Canadians think inflation will be high over the next two years because of supply disruptions caused by the pandemic. They are more concerned about inflation now than they were before the pandemic and believe it has become more difficult to control. However, near-term inflation expectations are not feeding into expectations for wage growth or longer-term inflation. Showing confidence in the labour market, workers are more likely than ever to want to change jobs." }, "CSCE_2022Q1": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q1", "description": "This survey took place in mid-February 2022 before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in March and provide some insight into how consumers perceive the effects of the conflict. Short-term inflation expectations have reached record-high levels because of supply disruptions and the COVID 19 pandemic. Consumers think the Russian invasion of Ukraine will make high inflation worse. Despite greater concerns about inflation today, longer-term expectations have remained stable and are below pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and that survey respondents believe the current rise in inflation will not last. Although workers anticipate significant price increases in the near term, they believe their wages will increase only modestly. This is a source of dissatisfaction for them. Despite expecting higher interest rates, consumers continue to anticipate strong spending growth on a broad range of goods and services." }, "CSCE_2022Q2": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2", "description": "This survey took place between April 28 and May 13, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in June. Consumers’ expectations for inflation have risen, alongside concerns about prices for food, gas and rent. Short-term expectations are at record-high levels. Long-term inflation expectations increased significantly in the second quarter of 2022, returning to the levels they were at before the COVID-19 pandemic. Most people believe the Bank of Canada can achieve its inflation target. However, some think the process of bringing inflation down will be difficult for the Bank of Canada. Expectations for higher inflation and rising interest rates weigh on consumer confidence. People expect that credit conditions will worsen and wage growth will not keep up with inflation. Flexible work arrangements could attract more people into the labour force." }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C1A": { "label": "Lower-income Canadians are more concerned about grocery prices and rent", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C1A", "description": "Which price increases are the most concerning to you? Choose one option. (share of respondents by income group)" }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C1B": { "label": "Lower-income groups are having to adjust more to inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C1B", "description": "What actions are you taking because of higher inflation? (share of respondents by income group)" }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C2": { "label": "Consumers think supply chain issues are the main challenge in controlling inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C2", "description": "Which factor has most affected authorities’ ability to control inflation in Canada? (share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C3": { "label": "Canadians believe the Bank can achieve its inflation target", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C3", "description": "How often do you think that Bank of Canada can achieve its inflation target in the future? (share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C4": { "label": "Many respondents are uncertain about the impact of higher interest rates on inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C4", "description": "You mentioned that the Bank of Canada has raised its policy interest rate. In your view, how will this action affect the inflation rate? (share of respondents who said the Bank has raised the policy interest rate)" }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C6": { "label": "Workers in the private sector expect larger wage gains than those in the public sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C6", "description": "Wage growth expectations: By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months? Wage growth perceptions: By about what percent do you think your earnings have increased (decreased) over the past 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C7": { "label": "Expected growth in spending is not keeping up with expected price increases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C7", "description": "Spending growth: Over the next 12 months, by about what percent do you expect the total spending of all members of household to increase (decrease)?\n\nThis chart presents median values. For an explanation of the computation, see the Overview. The Overview also includes the survey questions. This chart is available by demographic characteristics." }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C8": { "label": "In response to interest rate increases, consumers would cut their spending and pay down debt", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C8", "description": "Suppose that the interest rates increase by 1 percentage point over the next year. Which of the following actions do you expect to take? (share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2022Q2_C9": { "label": "Flexible work arrangements and better wages could increase participation in the labour market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q2_C9", "description": "Under which conditions would you consider looking for work? (share of respondents not in the labour force)" }, "CSCE_2022Q3": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3", "description": "This survey took place between August 2 and August 23, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in September. Expectations for inflation one to two years ahead have continued to rise because consumers anticipate supply chain disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist. In contrast, expectations for inflation five years ahead have eased to near pre-pandemic levels. Still, consumers are more divided this quarter about where inflation will end up in the long term." }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C10": { "label": "Housing market churn remains high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C10", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence? What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Are you planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condo now? Renters: Are you planning to buy a house or condo during the next 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C1A": { "label": "Wage growth expectations for private sector workers increased again", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C1A", "description": "By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months?\n\nThis question was not asked in 2019Q4.\n* Earnings refers to earnings in the same job, for the same hours worked, before taxes and deductions." }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C1B": { "label": "Remote work is softening wage demands", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C1B", "description": "By roughly how much would your wage have to increase if you had to give up flexible work arrangements, including teleworking, and were required to return to office? (asked to those who work remotely all or part of the time)" }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C2": { "label": "Disagreement about long-term inflation expectations is spiking", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C2", "description": "Dispersion* of inflation expectations at different horizons\n\n* Dispersion is measured as the difference between the 75th and the 25th percentiles of the distribution of responses." }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C3": { "label": "The perceived inflation target is high and increasing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C3", "description": "What do you think the annual inflation target is in Canada?" }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C4": { "label": "Many people think rate increases will not reduce inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C4", "description": "In your view, what does the Bank of Canada aim to achieve by increasing rates? In your view, how do you think increasing rates will affect the inflation rate?" }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C5": { "label": "Workers view their recent wage gains as lower than inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C5", "description": "How does your recent wage adjustment compare to actual inflation?\n\n* Net measures the share of respondents with wage adjustments lower than inflation minus the share of respondents with wage adjustments higher than inflation." }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C7": { "label": "Most consumers think a recession is likely", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C7", "description": "What do you think is the chance that the Canadian economy will be in a recession within the next 12 months?\n\nRespondents were given discrete choices" }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C8": { "label": "Consumers see shrinking real wages, high prices and rising interest rates as the main triggers of a recession", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C8", "description": "What do you think will most likely trigger a recession?" }, "CSCE_2022Q3_C9": { "label": "To cope with higher inflation, consumers bought less and searched for sales and best prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q3_C9", "description": "How have you changed your shopping habits because of higher inflation, if at all? (share of respondents who selected each shopping habit)" }, "CSCE_2022Q4": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4", "description": "Results of the fourth-quarter survey show that consumers have reduced their purchases of a broad range of goods and services in response to rising inflation and increases in interest rates. High food prices are a particular source of frustration for households. Most consumers anticipate a mild or moderate recession in the next 12 months. And although labour markets continue to be strong, some early signals suggest consumers think this strength will fade. Meanwhile, short-term inflation expectations remain elevated this quarter, but consumers have varied opinions about where inflation will be in five years. More people than before the pandemic expect deflation." }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Higher interest rates and inflation have caused consumers to reduce their spending on many products", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C1", "description": "Interest rate increases: You reported cutting spending in response to recent interest rate increases. Which of the following items have you cut over the past six months? Higher inflation: You reported cutting spending in response to higher inflation. Which of the following items have you cut over the past six months? Choose all that apply. (Share of respondents who selected each category in either question)" }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Consumers expecting deflation in five years see supply issues as the main reason inflation is currently outside the target range", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C1A", "description": "What is the most important factor that has affected the ability of the Bank of Canada to control inflation? (Share of respondents expecting deflation in five years)" }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: Of those consumers expecting deflation in five years, many believe the issues contributing to current inflation will ease within two years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C1B", "description": "When do you think these factors* will stop affecting inflation? (Share of respondents expecting deflation in five years)" }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Consumers plan to postpone or reduce their purchases because of expected inflation and interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C2", "description": "Interest rate expectations: Which (if any) of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for interest rates? Inflation expectations: Which (if any) of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for inflation or deflation? (Share of respondents who selected each answer in either category)\n\nThis question was not asked between 2021Q1 and 2022Q1." }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Consumers are finding credit increasingly difficult to access", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C3", "description": "Compared with 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier these days for people to obtain credit or loans? Looking ahead, do you think it will be generally harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans 12 months from now? (Balance of opinion*)\n\n* Share of respondents reporting harder credit conditions minus the share reporting easier credit conditions" }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Most workers do not expect their earnings to catch up with recent inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C4", "description": "Do you expect that your earnings will eventually catch up with recent inflation? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: More than two-thirds of consumers expecting a recession think it will not be severe", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C5", "description": "How would you characterize the expected downturn in the economy? (Share of respondents who chose each option)" }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Many consumers feel a recession would affect their work and financial situation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C6", "description": "If a recession were to occur, what would be the most likely and meaningful impact(s) on you or on a member of your household? (Share of respondents who reported they would be affected by a recession)" }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Consumers perceive the labour market is softening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C7", "description": "What do you expect overall employment in your community to do over the next six months? Increase, decrease, stay the same or don’t know (28-day moving average)" }, "CSCE_2022Q4_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Compared with before the pandemic, consumer expectations for inflation five years from now are more varied", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2022Q4_C9", "description": "For each range, what, in your view, is the percent chance that inflation five years from now will fall in that range? (Share of respondents with expectations in each range)" }, "CSCE_2023Q1": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1", "description": "Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase." }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Workers from a broad range of industries expect higher wage growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C10", "description": "By what percent do you expect your earnings* to (increase/decrease)?\n\n* Earnings refers to earnings in the same job, for the same hours worked, before taxes and deductions.\nNote: This question was not asked in 2019Q4." }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Higher wages are likely needed to attract new workers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C11", "description": "Suppose someone offered you a job today in a line of work that you would consider. What is the lowest salary you would accept (before taxes and deductions) for this job? ($/hour)" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Some consumers are paying closer attention to inflation than others", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C1A", "description": "Note: For the first quarter of 2023, the data for actual inflation and professional forecasters are for January and February only.\n\nSources: Consensus Economics, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Consumers think high government spending will affect inflation for longer than supply chain issues will", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C2", "description": "When do you expect the following issues will stop affecting inflation?" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C2A": { "label": "Chart 2-A: Mortgage holders and equity-deserving groups are more likely than other Canadians to be hurt by higher interest rates and inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C2A", "description": "Were you financially impacted by recent increases in interest rates by the Bank of Canada/recent higher inflation? (Share negatively affected, %)" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C2B": { "label": "Chart 2-B: Consumers negatively affected by rising interest rates and high inflation are showing more distress than others", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C2B", "description": "Did you become better or worse off as a result of recent interest rate increases/higher inflation?" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Canadians who know Canada has an inflation target expect lower inflation than others do", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C3", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Did you know that Canada has an inflation target?" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Consumers feel the effects of interest rates and inflation on their financial situation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C4", "description": "Did you become better or worse off as a result of recent interest rate increases/higher inflation?" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Consumers are spending less on services because of rising interest rates and inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C5", "description": "Compared to the past 12 months, over the next 12 months, about how often do you expect to..." }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: High prices are preventing consumers from spending on in-person services", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C6", "description": "Why do you expect to participate less often in these activities? Check all that apply." }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C7A": { "label": "Chart 7: Most Canadians expect a recession but are uncertain about it", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C7A", "description": "What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C7B": { "label": "Chart 7: Most Canadians expect a recession but are uncertain about it", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C7B", "description": "The outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months is:" }, "CSCE_2023Q1_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Uncertainty is weighing on consumers’ spending plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q1_C8", "description": "Is the Canadian economic outlook or unemployment rate easy or hard to predict? By what percent do you expect your total household spending to change in the next 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2023Q2": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2", "description": "Inflation expectations for one to two years ahead have come down again but remain well above their levels from before the COVID-19 pandemic. The higher cost of living is the most pressing concern for consumers, and along with elevated interest rates, continues to constrain most households’ spending. Homeowners who are planning to renew their mortgage over the next two years and who expect significantly higher payments are likely to plan spending cuts. Some households though are starting to think the worst is behind them. Consumer confidence about the future of the economy has improved alongside their lower inflation expectations. Expected lower interest rates and strong immigration, which boosts housing demand, are behind consumers’ view that housing market will increase over the next year. Workers remain confident about jobs." }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C10A": { "label": "Chart 10: Consumers report larger workloads compared with last year Panel a. Change in workload", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C10A", "description": "Compared with this this time last year, would you say your workload has increased, decreased or stayed the same? What factors do you believe contributed to the increase in your workload over the past year?" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C10B": { "label": "Chart 10: Consumers report larger workloads compared with last year Panel b. Reasons for increased workload", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C10B", "description": "Compared with this this time last year, would you say your workload has increased, decreased or stayed the same? What factors do you believe contributed to the increase in your workload over the past year?" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Those working fewer hours also report higher workloads", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C11", "description": "Compared with this time last year, would you say your workload has increased, decreased or stayed the same? (Share of workers by reported change in hours worked compared with last year)" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C12": { "label": "Chart 12: Across sectors, wage growth expectations remain near survey highs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C12", "description": "By about what percent do you expect your earnings* to have increased (decreased) over the next 12 months?\n\n* Earnings refers to earnings in the same job, for the same hours worked, before taxes and deductions.\nNote: This question was not asked in 2019Q4" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C13": { "label": "Chart 13: Holders of variable-rate mortgage are more likely than others to seek additional sources of income", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C13", "description": "Are you planning to increase your income (excluding pushing for higher wages) in light of your expectations of inflation (deflation)? (Share of respondents by type of mortgage)" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Most mortgage holders expect their payments to increase at renewal", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C1A", "description": "When you renew, do you expect your mortgage payments to increase a lot, increase a little, remain the same, decrease a little, decrease a lot or not sure/don’t know? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: Most mortgage holders are planning to cut spending and accelerate principal payments to deal with higher mortgage payments", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C1B", "description": "To mitigate or deal with increases in interest costs, are you doing or planning to do any of the following? Check all that apply. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Fewer consumers see supply chain disruptions as keeping inflation high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C2", "description": "What is the most important factor that affected the ability of the Bank of Canada to control inflation in Canada? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C2A": { "label": "Chart 2-A: A large share of immigrants own a home 10 years after their arrival", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C2A", "description": "Do you own or rent your current primary residence?" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C2B": { "label": "Chart 2-B: Newcomers to Canada are planning to save more over the next year than they save today", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C2B", "description": "In 12 months from now, do you expect your household’s tendency to save will have changed compared with today? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Expectations for growth in rental prices remain high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C3", "description": "Twelve months from now, what do you think will have happened to the price of the following items?" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C4A": { "label": "Chart 4a: Perception of current inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C4A", "description": "" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C4B": { "label": "Chart 4b: One-year-ahead inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C4B", "description": "Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? (Distribution of responses)" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C4C": { "label": "Chart 4c: Two-year-ahead inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C4C", "description": "" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C4D": { "label": "Chart 4d: Five-year-ahead inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C4D", "description": "" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: The cost of living is by far consumers’ biggest concern", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C5", "description": "Thinking about your financial situation, are you concerned by any of these factors? Of the factors listed, which one are you most concerned about? Select only one. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Fewer consumers than last quarter think a recession is likely", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C6", "description": "What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Consumers’ outlook is becoming less pessimistic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C7", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking, or planning to take, in light of your expectations for interest rates/inflation? Right now, is it the right time to make a major purchase like a house or a car? Looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now it will generally be harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans and mortgages) than it is these days?\n\n* Share of respondents\n†Net share of respondents\nNote: Net share is the share of consumers responding positively minus the share responding negatively. Data for “Deciding it's not the right time to make a major purchase” are from the Bank of Canada’s Daily Internet Survey of Confidence, an online survey of Canadian consumers." }, "CSCE_2023Q2_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Housing market churn remains high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q2_C9", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence? What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 12 months, you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Are you planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condo now? Renters: Are you planning to buy a house or condo during the next 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2023Q3": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3", "description": "Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation remain elevated and are diverging from actual inflation. Perceptions of high inflation are also leading to persistently high expectations for inflation over the next 12 months. Consumers’ expectations for interest rates one year from now also remain high, and many consumers believe that the impacts of higher interest rates on their household spending are far from over. Homeowners with a variable-rate mortgage are more likely than other consumers to report being worse off due to high interest rates. Consumers’ plans to purchase services, such as vacations or concerts, are more widespread than plans to make major purchases of goods that are likely to be financed with loans, such as vehicles or appliances. Workers are reporting signs of job market cooling, such as more time spent looking for a new job, but they remain confident about the labour market." }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C1": { "label": "Elevated perceptions of current inflation are leading to persistently high near-term inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C1", "description": "Inflation expectation for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C10": { "label": "The share of people who reported working more hours now than last year has decreased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C10", "description": "You said you have worked __ hours in the previous week. How does this compare with the same time last year?" }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C1A": { "label": "The gap between perceived and actual inflation is particularly high for young consumers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C1A", "description": "Difference between perceived inflation and consumer price index inflation (percentage points)" }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C2": { "label": "Most people understand that the Bank raised interest rates to reduce inflation, but less than half expect it will work", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C2", "description": "For those who think the Bank of Canada recently raised rates: In your view, what does the Bank aim to achieve by increasing rates? In your view, how will this action affect the inflation rate?" }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C3": { "label": "Most people are reducing spending to guard against inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C3", "description": "What actions are you taking to protect yourself against inflation?" }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C4": { "label": "The impacts of higher interest rates have broadened", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C4", "description": "Were you financially impacted by recent increases in interest rates by the Bank of Canada? Did you become better off or worse off as a result?" }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C5": { "label": "Many homeowners’ mortgage payments are close to or beyond the maximum they can afford", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C5", "description": "How much is your regular mortgage payment? Based on your current financial situation, what is the maximum regular mortgage payment you feel you can afford?\n\nThe ratio represents the maximum affordable amount divided by the current mortgage payment. A ratio above 1 implies that the mortgage holder can afford a higher payment, while a ratio below 1 implies that the mortgage payment is above what the mortgage holder believes is affordable." }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C6": { "label": "Housing market expectations eased slightly despite strong demand from newcomers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C6", "description": "What is the likelihood that over the next 12 months you will: move to a different primary residence? Put your primary residence on the market for sale? Are you planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condo now?" }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C7": { "label": "Many consumers expect further impacts from higher interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C7", "description": "Interest rates in Canada have risen since 2021. How would you categorize the impact these interest rate increases have had so far on your household spending?" }, "CSCE_2023Q3_C8": { "label": "Plans for making major purchases are more widespread for services than for goods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q3_C8", "description": "Did you make any major purchases (excluding homes or financial investments) in the past six months? Do you plan to make any major purchases (excluding homes or financial investments) in the next six months?" }, "CSCE_2023Q4": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4", "description": "Consumers believe inflation has fallen, but their expectations for inflation in the near term are showing little progress in returning to pre-pandemic levels. Slow progress may be due to persistently high inflation expectations for services such as rent. In addition, consumers increasingly think domestic factors, such as high government spending, are supporting high inflation, and they believe these factors will take longer to resolve than global factors. Consumers have adjusted their behaviour in response to prolonged high inflation—more people are paying attention to inflation and changing their spending habits. However, actions that may support inflation, such as seeking wage increases to offset it, are dissipating. The negative effects of high interest rates are broadening, and indicators of household financial stress are deteriorating. Consumers remain uncertain about the economic outlook, and this uncertainty is weighing on their spending plans. Workers think the labour market has weakened slightly. However, expectations for wage growth remain high, supported by cost-of-living adjustments in some workers’ wage contracts." }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C1": { "label": "People perceive inflation to be lower, but their expectations for short-term inflation are little changed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C1", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C10": { "label": "Expectations for higher wage gains are driven by public sector workers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C10", "description": "Wage growth expectations: Please think ahead to 12 months from now. By what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased)?\n\nIndustry of main job was not asked in 2019Q4." }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C11": { "label": "Workers with cost-of-living adjustments have higher expectations for wage growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C11", "description": "Wage growth expectations (%): Please think ahead to 12 months from now. By what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased)? Is your pay adjusted to inflation?" }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C1B": { "label": "One in four consumers reported at least one characteristic of financial vulnerability", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C1B", "description": "In your opinion, how long would you be able to cover your current level of expenditures (including debt payments, bill payments and spending on goods and services excluding unusual purchases) using only the money in banking and investment accounts that can be withdrawn quickly and easily? How often do you run out of money to cover your current level of expenditures before the end of the month? Suppose you have an emergency expense that costs $500 (e.g., car repair, broken tooth). Based on your current financial situation, which option would you most likely choose to cover most of the cost? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C2": { "label": "Consumers expect price growth for some goods to slow", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C2", "description": "Twelve months from now, by how much do you expect prices to have changed for the following items?" }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C3": { "label": "Consumers think domestic factors are keeping inflation high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C3", "description": "What is the most important factor affecting the ability of the Bank of Canada to control inflation in Canada? (Share of respondents)\n\nConsumer demand includes the subcategories strength in overall demand and changes in what consumers are buying." }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C4": { "label": "Fewer consumers are pushing for higher wages or looking for more income in response to their inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C4", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for inflation? (Percentage-point deviation from historical average)" }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C5": { "label": "Consumers are increasingly reducing spending because of their inflation and interest rate expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C5", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for interest rates? Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for inflation? (Share of respondents who said they are reducing spending)\n\nThe question on actions in response to interest rate expectations was not asked in 2021Q1. The question on actions in response to high inflation expectations was not asked between 2021Q1 and 2022Q1." }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C6": { "label": "An increasing share of consumers are financially worse off due to rising interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C6", "description": "Were you impacted financially by recent Bank of Canada increases in interest rates or by recent higher inflation? Did you become better off or worse off as a result? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C7": { "label": "Many households think high interest rates are just beginning to affect their spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C7", "description": "Interest rates in Canada have risen since 2021. How would you categorize the impact these interest rate increases have had so far on your household spending? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C8": { "label": "Newcomers continue to boost housing demand", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C8", "description": "Are you planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condo over the next 12 months? (Share of renters by group)" }, "CSCE_2023Q4_C9": { "label": "Uncertainty about the economic outlook is weighing on spending plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2023Q4_C9", "description": "Expected change in real spending, by level of uncertainty\n\nExpected change in real spending is the expected percentage growth in nominal spending minus the expected percentage growth in prices over the next 12 months. For expected nominal spending, respondents were asked, “By what percent do you expect your total household spending to increase (decrease)?” For expected growth in prices, respondents were asked, “What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be over the next 12 months?” For level of uncertainty, respondents replied to the statement, “The outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months is easy (difficult) to predict.”" }, "CSCE_2024Q1": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1", "description": "Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Sticky inflation expectations may be due to elevated uncertainty about near-term inflation and still-high expectations for interest rates and rent costs over the next 12 months. Long-term inflation expectations have increased from low levels. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think domestic factors supporting high inflation, such as high government spending and elevated housing costs, will take longer to resolve. High inflation and high interest rates continue to impact household budgets and spending decisions, but consumers are less pessimistic about the economic outlook. After easing for several quarters, perceptions of the labour market have stabilized, and high inflation expectations continue to support stronger-than-average expectations for wage growth." }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C1": { "label": "Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are falling, but near-term expectations are little changed from last quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C1", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the past 12 months?\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada" }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C10": { "label": "Wage growth expectations of public sector workers are trending upward", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C10", "description": "Please think ahead to 12 months from now. By what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased)?\n\nIndustry of main job was not asked in 2019Q4." }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C2": { "label": "Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are strongly linked to their own experiences", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C2", "description": "In your opinion, how important are the following factors in influencing your thoughts regarding the average inflation or deflation rate over the past 12 months? (Share of respondents citing “very important”)" }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C3": { "label": "Expectations for growth in the price of essentials have eased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C3", "description": "Twelve months from now, by what percent do you expect prices to have changed for the following items?" }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C4": { "label": "Many consumers continue to feel worse off as a result of high inflation and high interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C4", "description": "Were you financially impacted by recent Bank of Canada increases in interest rates or by recent higher inflation? Did you become better off or worse off as a result? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C5": { "label": "Indicators of financial stress have eased but remain elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C5", "description": "Do you think you (and any family living with you) are financially better off or worse off now than you were 12 months ago? And looking ahead, do you think you will be financially better off or worse off in 12 months than you are now? Compared with 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier now for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans and mortgages)? And looking ahead, do you think that in 12 months it will generally be harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans than it is now? What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will NOT be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payment on credit or retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages or any other debt you may have)? (Standardized values)\n\nA positive value indicates a higher-than-average level of financial stress. Values represent standard deviations from the historical mean." }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C6": { "label": "Consumers’ economic outlook improved but remains weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C6", "description": "What do you think is the most likely outlook for the Canadian economy over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C7": { "label": "Most consumers are reducing spending because of their expectations for inflation and interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C7", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for interest rates? Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for inflation? (Share of respondents who said they are reducing spending and saving more, or postponing major purchases)\n\nThe question on actions in response to interest rate expectations was not asked in 2021Q1. The question on actions in response to inflation expectations was not asked between 2021Q1 and 2022Q1." }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C8": { "label": "More people are planning to buy a home", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C8", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence? What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Are you planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condo now? Renters: Are you planning to buy a house or condo during the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q1_C9": { "label": "Consumer perceptions of the labour market remain positive", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q1_C9", "description": "Please think ahead to 12 months from now. By what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased)? What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Suppose you were to lose your job this month. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months, you will find a job that you will accept, considering the pay and type of work? What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? You have answered that you are looking for a job. How long have you been looking for a job? (Standardized values)\n\n* Negative values indicate a higher probability.\n† Negative values indicate a longer period of time.\nNote: Positive values in all categories indicate stronger-than-average confidence in the labour market. Values represent standard deviations from the historical mean." }, "CSCE_2024Q2": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2", "description": "Consumers’ perceptions of inflation are unchanged from a quarter ago, but their expectations for near-term inflation declined significantly. While both measures have improved substantially in recent quarters, they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Most consumers continue to think that domestic factors are contributing to high inflation. Sentiment remains subdued and unchanged from last quarter, as high inflation and elevated interest rates continue to constrain people’s budgets. Perceived financial stress remains high, most consumers continue to report spending cuts, and pessimism about future economic conditions persists. Canadians’ perceptions of the labour market have weakened this quarter, especially among private sector employees. Yet overall wage growth expectations reached a new survey high, driven by public sector employees." }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations have eased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C1", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months?" }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Consumer perceptions of the labour market have eased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C10", "description": "Please think ahead to 12 months from now. By what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased)? What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Suppose you were to lose your job this month. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months, you will find a job that you will accept, considering the pay and type of work? What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? You have answered that you are looking for a job. How long have you been looking for a job? (Standardized values)\n\n* Negative values indicate a higher probability.\n† Negative values indicate a longer period of time.\nNote: Positive values indicate stronger-than-average confidence in the labour market. Values represent standard deviations from the historical mean." }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Public sector workers' wage growth expectations continue to climb", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C11", "description": "Please think ahead to 12 months from now. By what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased)?\n\nNote: Industry of main job was not asked in 2019Q4." }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Consumers continue to believe domestic factors are the most important drivers of inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C2", "description": "Which is the most important factor affecting the ability of the Bank of Canada to control inflation in Canada? Choose one. (Share of respondents)\n\n*This factor was not included before 2024Q2." }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Consumers continue to expect inflation to be higher for services than for goods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C3", "description": "Twelve months from now, by what percent do you expect prices to have changed for the following items?" }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: High inflation and high interest rates are still causing many consumers to feel worse off", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C4", "description": "Were you financially impacted by recent Bank of Canada increases in interest rates or by recent higher inflation? Did you become better off or worse off as a result of it? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Financial stress has worsened, but indicators remain below survey highs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C5", "description": "Do you think you (and any family living with you) are financially better off or worse off these days than you were 12 months ago? And looking ahead, do you think you will be financially better off or worse off 12 months from now than you are these days? Compared with 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier these days for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans and mortgages)? And looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now it will generally be harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans than it is these days? What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will NOT be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payment on credit or retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages or any other debt you may have)? (Standardized values)\n\nNote: A positive value indicates a higher-than-average level of financial stress. Values represent standard deviations from the historical mean." }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Consumers expect to be financially worse off because of a weaker economy ahead", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C6", "description": "What factor(s) make you think that you (and any family living with you) will be financially worse off 12 months from now than you are these days? Select all that apply. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Most consumers are reducing spending because of their expectations for inflation and interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C7", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for interest rates? Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for inflation? (Share of respondents who said they are reducing spending and saving more, or postponing major purchases)\n\nNote: The question on actions in response to interest rate expectations was not asked in 2021Q1.\nThe question on actions in response to inflation expectations was not asked between 2021Q1 and 2022Q1." }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Economic uncertainty relates to government policies, global factors and changing interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C8", "description": "Why is the outlook for the Canadian economy particularly difficult to predict now? Select the main reason. (Share of respondents who think the economic outlook is particularly difficult to predict right now)" }, "CSCE_2024Q2_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: More people are planning to buy a home", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q2_C9", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence? What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Are you planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condo now? Renters: Are you planning to buy a house or condo during the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q3": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3", "description": "Consumers’ perceptions of current inflation and their expectations for inflation over the next year have declined this quarter, although they remain higher than they were before the COVID‑19 pandemic. Perceptions of financial stress have improved. And, given recent interest rate cuts and lower inflation, fewer consumers reported reducing their spending. However, consumers expect interest rates to remain elevated, which is affecting their spending decisions. Perceptions of the labour market have weakened further, with young consumers reporting a more pronounced deterioration than others. Still, overall, job prospects are close to survey averages." }, "CSCE_2024Q3_C2": { "label": "Inflation expectations for key services have eased significantly from last quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3_C2", "description": "Twelve months from now, by what percent do you expect prices to have changed for the following items?" }, "CSCE_2024Q3_C3": { "label": "The share of consumers expecting inflation to be in the target range has continued to increase", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3_C3", "description": "What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q3_C4": { "label": "Consumers’ perceptions about financial stress have improved", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3_C4", "description": "Do you think you (and any family living with you) are financially better or worse off these days than you were 12 months ago? And looking ahead, do you think you will be financially better or worse off 12 months from now than you are these days? Compared with 12 months ago, do you think it is generally harder or easier these days for people to obtain credit or loans (including credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans and mortgages)? And looking ahead, do you think that 12 months from now it will generally be harder or easier for people to obtain credit or loans than it is these days? What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will NOT be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payment on credit or retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages or any other debt you may have)? (Standardized values)\n\nA positive value indicates a higher-than-average level of financial stress. Values represent standard deviations from the historical mean." }, "CSCE_2024Q3_C5": { "label": "High inflation and elevated interest rates continue to constrain people’s budgets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3_C5", "description": "2023Q3 to 2024Q2: Were you financially impacted by recent Bank of Canada increases in interest rates or by recent higher inflation? Did you become better off or worse off as a result? 2024Q3: These days, are you impacted financially, either positively or negatively, by the current level of interest rates or by the current rate of inflation? Compared with 12 months ago, are you better off or worse off as a result? (Share of respondents)\n\nNote: Survey questions were changed in 2024Q3 to better reflect current inflationary and monetary policy environments." }, "CSCE_2024Q3_C6": { "label": "Most consumers plan to continue reducing their spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3_C6", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for interest rates? Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for inflation? (Share of respondents who said they are reducing spending and saving more, or postponing major purchases)\n\nThe question on actions in response to interest rate expectations was not asked in 2021Q1. The question on actions in response to inflation expectations was not asked between 2021Q1 and 2022Q1." }, "CSCE_2024Q3_C7": { "label": "Home-buying intentions are unchanged at historical levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3_C7", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence? What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Are you planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condo now? Renters: Are you planning to buy a house or condo during the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q3_C8": { "label": "Some consumers need much lower interest rates to trigger home-buying plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3_C8", "description": "For respondents not planning to buy a house: If interest rates decline from their current levels, would you plan to purchase a home over the next 12 months? You are not planning to buy a house unless rates decrease. By how much would interest rates have to decline for you to purchase a home over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)\n\nNote: bps means basis points." }, "CSCE_2024Q3_C9": { "label": "Indicators of job prospects are moving closer to survey averages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q3_C9", "description": "Please think ahead to 12 months from now. By what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased)? What do you think is the percent chance that you will leave your job voluntarily during the next 12 months? Suppose you were to lose your job this month. What do you think is the percent chance that within the following 3 months, you will find a job that you will accept, considering the pay and type of work? What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? You have answered that you are looking for a job. How long have you been looking for a job? (Standardized values)" }, "CSCE_2024Q4": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4", "description": "Results from the CSCE show that consumer sentiment improved this quarter, mainly due to recent interest rate cuts and the expectation of further cuts ahead. Consumers reported stronger spending plans. Still, they reported that high prices of many goods and services, economic uncertainty and elevated housing costs continue to weigh on spending decisions. Consumer confidence in the labour market has weakened and is now slightly below the survey average. Consumers’ inflation expectations have largely returned to historical norms." }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Improved consumer sentiment is partly due to lower levels of financial stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C1", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE index of financial health (standardized units)\n\nNote: The CSCE index of financial health is a summary measure of five Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) questions. All contributions are in standardized units showing deviations from the survey average. The first four indicators are measured as a share of respondents, while the last indicator is calculated as an interpolated median. Positive values indicate higher-than-average levels of financial health." }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Inflation expectations for key goods and services are nearing their survey averages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C10", "description": "Twelve months from now, by what percent do you expect prices to have changed for the following items? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: As consumers feel financially better off, fewer plan to continue reducing their spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C2", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for interest rates? Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for inflation? (Share of respondents who said they are reducing spending and saving more, or postponing major purchases)\n\nNote: The question on actions in response to interest rate expectations was not asked in 2021Q1. The question on actions in response to inflation expectations was not asked between 2021Q1 and 2022Q1." }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Consumers expect their spending to increase faster than prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C3", "description": "By about what percent do you expect your total household spending to increase (decrease) over the next 12 months? What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be over the next 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Consumers plan to increase their spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C4", "description": "Over the next 12 months, how do you expect the total spending of all members of your household (including you) to change in these categories? (Double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n*Percentage of respondents expecting their spending to increase minus the percentage expecting their spending to decrease. Responses of decrease significantly and increase significantly are given twice the weight of responses of decrease slightly and increase slightly. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%." }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Home-buying intentions have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C5", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will move to a different primary residence? What do you think is the percent chance that over the next 12 months you will put your primary residence on the market for sale? Are you planning to buy or thinking of buying a house or condominium now? Renters: Are you planning to buy a house or condominium during the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: High prices, uncertainty and housing costs continue to weigh on consumer spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C6", "description": "Consider the total spending of all members of your household (including you) over the next 12 months. Do you expect your spending to be negatively, positively or not really affected by economic factors or personal circumstances? (Share of respondents) If negatively impacted: Which of the following economic factors or personal circumstances do you expect will have the greatest negative impact on your spending over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents, more than one option could be selected)" }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Consumers see the labour market as weaker than last quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C7", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE labour market index (standardized units)\n\n*Negative values indicate a higher-than-average probability. Note: The CSCE labour market index is a summary measure of three Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) questions. All contributions are in standardized units showing deviations from the survey average. The three indicators are measured as interpolated median probabilities. Positive values indicate above-average confidence in the labour market." }, "CSCE_2024Q4_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Consumer expectations for wage growth have not changed significantly since last quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2024Q4_C8", "description": "Please think ahead to 12 months from now. By what percent do you expect your earnings to have increased (decreased)? (Interpolated median)\n\nNote: The industry of their main job was not asked in 2019Q4." }, "CSCE_2025Q1": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1", "description": "Overall, results of the first-quarter 2025 survey show that the escalating trade conflict with the United States is damaging consumer sentiment. Confidence in the labour market has weakened significantly, and consumers have become more pessimistic about their financial health. Although consumption plans had been improving over the past several quarters, consumers now intend to spend more cautiously given the uncertainty around the trade conflict. They expect the trade conflict to lead to a higher cost of living, and this has pushed up their inflation expectations." }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Consumers are more worried than last quarter about losing their job", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C1", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE labour market index\n\nThe CSCE labour market index is a summary measure of responses to three questions in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). All contributions are in standardized units showing deviations from the survey average. The three questions are measured as interpolated median probabilities. Positive values indicate higher-than- average confidence." }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Consumers think tariffs and the Can$/US$ exchange rate are the key impediments to the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C10", "description": "What is the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation in Canada? Choose one. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Job security concerns are more pronounced among those working in sectors that rely on exports to the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C2", "description": "Share of workers citing weaker job security in response to trade tensions\n\nSectors highly sensitive to trade includes agriculture and forestry, mining and oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors. These are sectors where more than 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States. Sectors less sensitive to trade includes all other private sector industries, where 30% or fewer jobs depend on exports to the United States, and the public sector." }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Consumers expect their financial health to worsen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C3", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE financial health index\n\nThe CSCE financial health index is a summary measure of responses to five questions in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE). All contributions are in standardized units showing deviations from the survey average. The first four questions are measured as a share of respondents, while the last question is calculated as an interpolated median. Positive values indicate higher-than-average levels of financial health." }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: After decreasing for several quarters, the share of consumers who plan to reduce spending has increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C4", "description": "Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for interest rates? Which, if any, of the following actions are you taking or planning to take in light of your expectations for inflation? (Share of respondents who said they are reducing spending and saving more, or postponing major purchases)\n\nThe question on actions in response to interest rate expectations was not asked in 2021Q1. The question on actions in response to inflation expectations was not asked between 2021Q1 and 2022Q1." }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: High prices, uncertainty and housing costs continue to weigh on spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C5", "description": "Consider the total spending of all members of your household (including you) over the next 12 months. Do you expect your spending to be negatively, positively or not really affected by economic factors or personal circumstances? If negatively affected: Which of the following economic factors or personal circumstances do you expect will have the greatest negative impact on your spending over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents expecting their spending to be negatively affected by any factor; more than one option could be selected)" }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Job security concerns due to the trade conflict are causing consumers to expect to reduce their discretionary spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C6", "description": "Over the next 12 months, how do you expect the total spending of all members of your household (including you) to change in these categories? (Share of respondents who said they are expecting to reduce spending over the next 12 months)" }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: More than half of consumers plan to buy Canadian rather than US goods because of the trade conflict", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C7", "description": "Right now, are you changing your spending plans in response to the potential state of trade relations between Canada and the United States or because of US tariffs on Canadian goods and Canadian retaliatory tariffs? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Consumers expect their cost of living to increase due to the trade conflict", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C8", "description": "How do you think your cost of living would be affected if trade relations between Canada and the United States were to change relative to before the US election or because of US tariffs on Canadian goods and Canadian retaliatory tariffs? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2025Q1_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations increased markedly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q1_C9", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2025Q2": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Second Quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2", "description": "Overall, results of the second-quarter 2025 survey show that the CSCE indicator—a measure developed to summarize the opinions of Canadian consumers—declined again this quarter as spending intentions continued to weaken due to the persistent threats of tariffs and related uncertainty. Consumers still see the labour market as soft, and their fear of job loss is elevated. The trade conflict is leading consumers to become increasingly cautious about their spending plans and to change their spending behaviour. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations have changed little since increasing markedly in the first quarter of 2025. This quarter, more consumers cited tariffs as the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation." }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C1": { "label": "The CSCE indicator declined further because of weakening spending intentions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C1", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE indicator, average of indexes\n\nPositive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C2": { "label": "Consumers continue to see the labour market as weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C2", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE labour market index\n\nPositive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C3": { "label": "Job security concerns have diminished the most among workers in sectors that rely on trade with the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C3", "description": "Share of workers citing weaker job security in response to trade tensions\n\nSectors highly sensitive to trade includes agriculture and forestry, mining and oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors. These are sectors where more than 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States. Sectors less sensitive to trade includes the public sector as well as all private sector industries in which no more than 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States." }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C4": { "label": "Spending intentions weakened mainly because consumers believe tariffs are inflationary", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C4", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE consumer spending index\n\nPositive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C5": { "label": "Spending intentions are particularly weak for consumers concerned about their job security", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C5", "description": "Over the next 12 months, what do you expect will happen to the total spending of all members of your household (including you)? (Expectations for real spending growth by impact of trade tensions on job security, interpolated median, in percent)" }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C6": { "label": "Consumers are prioritizing Canadian-made goods and choosing to vacation in Canada rather than the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C6", "description": "Right now, are you changing your spending plans in Canada or the United States in response to uncertainty about trade relationships or tariffs between Canada and the United States? (Spending plans by category, share of respondents)\n\nThe questions on goods made in Canada and goods made in the United States have been asked since 2025Q1. The questions on vacationing in Canada and vacationing in the United States were introduced in 2025Q2." }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C7": { "label": "Consumers' expectations for short-term inflation have changed little since increasing notably last quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C7", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C8": { "label": "Inflation expectations for motor vehicles increased significantly this quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C8", "description": "Twelve months from now, by what percent do you expect prices to have changed for the following items? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2025Q2_C9": { "label": "Consumers point to tariffs as the main impediment to the Bank of Canada's ability to control inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q2_C9", "description": "What is the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation in Canada? Choose one. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2025Q3": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3", "description": "Results of the third-quarter 2025 survey show that tariffs and trade tensions continue to affect consumers' perceptions about their financial health and spending plans. The CSCE indicator rose modestly from its most recent low, improved by slight gains in financial health and household spending intentions. But perceptions of labour market conditions deteriorated further, driven in part by a sharp drop in job-finding prospects for public sector workers. Consumers’ short-term inflation expectations remain above their pre-pandemic averages, and expectations for longer-term inflation have picked up again." }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The CSCE indicator improved slightly but remains low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C1", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE indicator, average of indexes\n\nNote: Positive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Many consumers think tariffs are the main obstacle that may interfere with the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C10", "description": "What is the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation in Canada? Choose one. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Consumers perceive a slight improvement in their financial health", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C2", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE financial health index\n\nNote: Positive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Consumers who believe the most serious effects of trade tensions are still to come have weaker perceived financial health", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C3", "description": "Do you think you (and any family living with you) are financially better or worse off these days than you were 12 months ago? Perceived change in financial situation by views on when trade tensions between Canada and the United States had or will have the most serious effects on the economy (double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n*Percentage of respondents perceiving their financial situation is better now than 12 months ago minus the percentage perceiving their financial situation is worse now than 12 months ago. Responses of much better off and much worse off are given twice the weight of responses of somewhat better off and somewhat worse off. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\nNote: Among respondents, 6% think the most serious effect of trade tensions on the economy was avoided, 27% think the most serious effect has already happened, and 67% think the most serious effect is still to come." }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Spending plans have improved for consumers who feel their financial health is better or the same", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C4", "description": "Over the next 12 months, what do you expect will happen to the total spending of all members of your household (including you)? Real spending growth expectations by perceived change in financial situation (median growth)\n\nNote: The share of respondents perceiving their financial situation as better than 12 months ago is about 15% in 2025Q2 and 17% in 2025Q3. The share of respondents perceiving their financial situation as about the same as 12 months ago is about 46% in 2025Q2 and 47% in 2025Q3. The share of respondents perceiving their financial situation as worse than 12 months ago is about 39% in 2025Q2 and 35% in 2025Q3.Individual shares may not add up to 100 due to rounding." }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: High prices, economic uncertainty and housing costs continue to weigh on spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C5", "description": "Consider the total spending of all members of your household (including you) over the next 12 months. Do you expect your spending to be negatively, positively or not affected by economic factors or personal circumstances? If negatively affected: Which of the following economic factors or personal circumstances do you expect will have the greatest negative impact on your spending over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents expecting their spending to be negatively affected by any factor; more than one option could be selected)" }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Consumers are prioritizing Canadian-made goods and vacations in Canada over US goods and vacations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C6", "description": "Right now, are you changing your spending plans in Canada or the United States in response to uncertainty about trade relationships or tariffs between Canada and the United States? (Spending plans by category, share of respondents)\n\nNote: The questions on goods made in Canada and goods made in the United States have been asked since 2025Q1. The questions on vacationing in Canada and vacationing in the United States have been asked since 2025Q2." }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Consumers report a lower likelihood of leaving or finding a job", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C7", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE labour market index\n\nNote: Positive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: The decline in job finding prospects is more pronounced among public sector workers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C8", "description": "Suppose you were to lose your job this month. What do you think is the percentage chance that, within the next 3 months, you will find a job that you will accept, considering the pay and type of work? (Interpolated median)\n\nNote: The industry of their main job was not asked in 2019Q4." }, "CSCE_2025Q3_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Consumers’ expectations for short-term inflation have changed little", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q3_C9", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the last 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2025Q4": { "label": "Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4", "description": "Results of the fourth-quarter 2025 survey show that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict continue to have a negative impact on consumers. As a result, even though labour market conditions improved somewhat, the CSCE indicator declined slightly. Expectations for near-term inflation remain higher than they were before the pandemic, while those for long-term inflation eased below pre-pandemic levels." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The CSCE indicator remains low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C1", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE indicator, average of indexes\n\nNote: The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator is a summary measure of Canadian consumers’ opinions about their spending plans, the labour market and their personal finances. Positive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Fewer consumers than last quarter believe tariffs may interfere with the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C10", "description": "What is the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation in Canada? Choose one. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Consumers aware that some counter-tariffs were removed from US imports have lower inflation expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C11", "description": "Are you aware that Canada removed counter-tariffs on US imports as of September 1, 2025? Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? (Interpolated median)\n\nNote: Among respondents in 2025Q4, about 67% reported being aware that the federal government removed some counter-tariffs on US imports. About 33% indicated they were not aware some counter-tariffs on US imports had been removed. For each time horizon, the weighted average of the inflation expectations of those who are aware and the inflation expectations of those who are not aware may not equal the aggregate inflation expectations for the comparable time horizon shown in Chart 9. For more information, see Bank of Canada, “Central tendencies,” Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Overview." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Consumers perceive a deterioration in their financial health", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C2", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE financial health index\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Consumers' perceived chances of missing a debt payment or losing a job are elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C3", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that, over the next 3 months, you will not be able to make one of your debt payments (that is, the minimum required payments on credit and retail cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages or any other debt you may have)? What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Consumers who believe the most serious effects of trade tensions are still to come have the lowest financial health expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C4", "description": "Looking ahead, do you think you (and any family living with you) will be financially better or worse off 12 months from now than you are these days? Expected change in financial situation, by view on timing of trade tension effects (double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n*Percentage of respondents expecting their financial situation to be better 12 months from now minus the percentage expecting their financial situation to be worse 12 months from now. Responses of much better off and much worse off are given twice the weight of responses of somewhat better off and somewhat worse off. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%. \nNote: Respondents were asked when they think the trade tensions between Canada and the United States had or will have the most serious effect on the economy or inflation. Among respondents in 2025Q4, 7% think the most serious effect of trade tensions on the economy or inflation was avoided, 27% think the most serious effect has already happened, 50% think the most serious effect is still to come, and 16% don't know or prefer not to answer." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Despite a slight improvement in their perceptions of the labour market, consumers are more worried about losing their job", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C5", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE labour market index\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Households continue to be pessimistic about spending plans this quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C6", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE consumer spending index\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Consumers’ spending continues to be negatively affected by their concerns about high prices, economic uncertainty and housing costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C7", "description": "Consider the total spending of all members of your household (including you) over the next 12 months. Do you expect your spending to be negatively, positively or not affected by economic factors or personal circumstances? If negatively affected: Which of the following economic factors or personal circumstances do you expect will have the greatest negative impact on your spending over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents expecting their spending to be negatively affected by any factor; more than one option could be selected)\n\nNote: Results for 2024Q4 are included to compare with results from before the trade conflict began." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Real spending expectations are weak for consumers with no equity holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C8", "description": "Do you (or others in your household) have any investments in the Canadian stock market or stocks in any of your retirement accounts? Over the next 12 months, what do you expect will happen to the total spending of all members of your household (including you)? Expectations for real spending growth (median growth), by household investment status\n\nNote: The question on investments in the Canadian stock market or stocks in retirement accounts was introduced in 2025Q4. Among respondents in 2025Q4, 53% have investments in the Canadian stock market or stocks in retirement accounts, 39% do not have investments in the Canadian stock market or stocks in retirement accounts, and 8% are not sure." }, "CSCE_2025Q4_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Consumers' near-term inflation expectations remain above pre-pandemic levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2025Q4_C9", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the past 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2026Q1": { "label": "April 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1", "description": "April 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations" }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The CSCE indicator slightly improved from low levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C1", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE indicator, average of indexes\n\nThe Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator is a summary measure of Canadian consumers’ opinions about their spending plans, the labour market and their personal finances. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Use of artificial intelligence is widespread among workers and across tasks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C1A", "description": "In what ways are you currently using AI in your workplace? (Share of consumers currently working)\n\nNote: For responses other than AI is not used in my workplace, respondents could select more than one option." }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: Workers expect artificial intelligence to improve their productivity regardless of whether they currently use it at work", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C1B", "description": "Over the next year, what are the chances that AI will...? (Share of respondents assigning more than a 50% probability to each outcome; job and salary outcomes are shown as net impacts)\n\nNote: AI is artificial intelligence. Each bar reports the share of respondents who assigned a probability greater than 50% to a given AI‑related outcome. For hours worked, the underlying question asked about fewer hours; we reversed the sign so the bar reflects more hours worked. For job and salary outcomes, the bars show net impacts: the share expecting their salary to increase or help them find new job opportunities minus the share expecting their salary to decrease or cause them to lose their job. In 2026Q1, among respondents currently working, 35% stated they don't use AI at work, 60% said they use AI at work, and 5% were not sure." }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Households are less pessimistic about their spending plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C2", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE consumer spending index\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C2A": { "label": "Chart 2-A: Households anticipate the war in the Middle East will lead to higher inflation and have a negative impact on the Canadian economy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C2A", "description": "How do you expect the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will impact the Canadian economy? How do you expect inflation will be impacted by the Middle East conflict over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C2B": { "label": "Chart 2-B: Households expect a prolonged war will substantially increase gas and food prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C2B", "description": "Suppose that the conflict in the Middle East is resolved very quickly, for example in the next two weeks. What do you think will have happened to the price of a litre of gasoline/price of food 12 months from now? Suppose that the conflict in the Middle East is not resolved quickly, for example lasting six months or more. What do you think will have happened to the price of a litre of gasoline/price of food 12 months from now? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Workers in sectors more exposed to trade are behind improvements in spending plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C3", "description": "CSCE consumer spending index by sector sensitivity to trade\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average. Sectors highly sensitive to trade includes agriculture and forestry, mining and oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors. These are sectors where more than 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States. Sectors less sensitive to trade includes all other private sector industries, where up to 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States, and the public sector. Respondents were not asked about the industry of their main job prior to 2018Q2 or in 2019Q4. The indexes are presented as a two-quarter moving average." }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Concerns about high prices and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on consumer spending plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C4", "description": "Consider the total spending of all members of your household (including you) over the next 12 months. Do you expect your spending to be negatively, positively or not affected by economic factors or personal circumstances? If negatively affected: Which of the following economic factors or personal circumstances do you expect will have the greatest negative impact on your spending over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents expecting their spending to be negatively affected by any factor)\n\nRespondents could select more than one option. Results for 2024Q4 are included to compare with results from before trade tensions began." }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Consumers expect their preference for Canadian goods to persist", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C5", "description": "Right now, are you changing your spending plans in Canada or the United States in response to uncertainty about trade relationships or tariffs between Canada and the United States? For each type of spending where you indicated a change, do you expect this change to persist over the long term, regardless of what happens to the trade relationship between the United States and Canada? (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Consumers continue to perceive the labour market as being soft", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C6", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE labour market index\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Workers in sectors with more jobs whose tasks AI may replace reported higher job loss concerns", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C7", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months?\n\nNote: Sectors where artificial intelligence (AI) poses a lower risk of task replacement include agriculture and forestry, mining and oil and gas, construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing. Less than 20% of employees in these sectors have high exposure to and low complementarity with AI. Sectors where AI poses a higher risk of task replacement include finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing, utilities, retail and wholesale trade, public sector, and information, culture and recreation. More than 20% of employees in these sectors have high exposure to and low complementarity with AI. High exposure, low complementarity jobs are those that may be highly exposed to AI-related job transformation and whose tasks could be replaceable by AI in the future. Sector classifications are based on T. Mehdi and R. Mor issette, “Experimental Estimates of Potential Artificial Intelligence Occupational Exposure in Canada,” Statistics Canada Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series No. 478 (September 2024). Across the time series, on average, 72% of the sample is in high-risk sectors and 28% in low-risk sectors. Respondents were not asked about the industry of their main job in 2019Q4." }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Consumers’ near-term inflation expectations are largely unchanged and remain above average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C8", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the past 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2026Q1_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Food price inflation remains a key driver of high inflation expectations over the next 12 months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q1_C9", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the past 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2026Q2": { "label": "July 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2", "description": "Results of the second-quarter 2026 survey show that consumers’ near-term inflation expectations remain elevated amid ongoing trade tensions and rising concerns about oil and energy prices linked to the war in the Middle East. The CSCE indicator remains low as consumers still view the economic environment as challenging. High prices and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household spending plans, particularly among households expecting the war to significantly raise inflation. At the same time, perceptions of the labour market improved modestly as fears of job loss eased, particularly in sectors highly sensitive to trade." }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Near-term inflation expectations are still above levels seen before trade tensions began", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C1", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the past 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: About half of households receiving the one-time top-up expect to spend more than 25% of the payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C1A", "description": "Do you expect your household to receive the one-time top-up from the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit, or have you already received it? If so, what share of this payment would you spend?" }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: The one-time Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit top-up is expected to support household spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C1B", "description": "Expectations for growth in real spending by planned share of the top-up to be spent (median growth)\n\nNote: Among all respondents, 19% expect to spend less than 25% or save all of it, 10% expect to spend between 25% to 75%, and 12% expect to spend more than 75%." }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The share of consumers who think inflation will be above 3% one year from now has increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C2", "description": "What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents)\n\nNote: Responses of 1% and 3% are included in the 1%–3% bucket. The 3%–5% bucket includes responses strictly between 3% and 5%. Responses of 5% or higher are included in 5% or above." }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Consumers increasingly see energy prices as a key driver of inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C3", "description": "What is the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada's ability to control inflation in Canada? Choose one. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: The CSCE indicator remains subdued", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C4", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE indicator, average of indexes\n\nNote: The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator is a summary measure of Canadian consumers’ opinions about their spending plans, the labour market and their personal finances. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Real spending expectations are lower for households anticipating the war in the Middle East to significantly raise inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C5", "description": "Over the next 12 months, what do you expect will happen to the total spending of all members of your household (including you)? Real spending growth expectations by expected impact on inflation due to the war in the Middle East (median growth)\n\nNote: Among all respondents, 27% expect the war will make inflation significantly higher and 56% expect inflation will be somewhat higher or unchanged due to the war. The remaining 16% report the war will make inflation lower or don't know what the impact will be. Individual shares may not add up to 100 due to rounding." }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Consumers expecting the war in the Middle East to raise inflation significantly are more likely to adjust spending habits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C6", "description": "Are you making any of the following changes in response to the war in the Middle East? (Share of respondents)\n\nNote: Respondents could select more than one option. Among all respondents, 27% expect the war will make inflation significantly higher and 56% expect inflation will be somewhat higher or unchanged due to the war. The remaining 16% report the war will make inflation lower or don't know what the impact will be. Individual shares may not add up to 100 due to rounding." }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: High prices and economic uncertainty continue to hold back spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C7", "description": "Consider the total spending of all members of your household (including you) over the next 12 months. Do you expect your spending to be negatively, positively or not affected by economic factors or personal circumstances? If negatively affected: Which of the following economic factors or personal circumstances do you expect will have the greatest negative impact on your spending over the next 12 months? (Share of respondents expecting their spending to be negatively affected by any factor)\n\nNote: Respondents could select more than one option. Results for 2024Q4 are included to compare with results from before trade tensions began." }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Consumers still view the labour market as soft even as concerns about job loss ease", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C8", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE labour market index\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2026Q2_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Job-loss concerns fell more for workers in sectors highly sensitive to trade", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q2_C9", "description": "What do you think is the percent chance that you will lose your job during the next 12 months? (Interpolated median)\n\nNote: Sectors highly sensitive to trade includes agriculture and forestry, mining and oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors. These are sectors where more than 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States. Sectors less sensitive to trade includes all other private sector industries, where up to 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States, and the public sector. Among employed respondents, 15% work in sectors highly sensitive to trade and 85% in sectors less sensitive to trade." }, "CSCE_2026Q3": { "label": "October 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3", "description": "October 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations" }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Long-term inflation expectations are in line with elevated short-term expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C1", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? Perceptions about current inflation: What do you think the rate of inflation (deflation) was over the past 12 months? (Interpolated median)" }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Consumers who believe the most serious effects of trade tensions are still to come have weaker intentions to make a major purchase", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C10", "description": "Intentions to make a major purchase, by view on timing of trade tensions effects on the economy or inflation (Share of respondents)\n\nNote: Among respondents, 8% think the most serious effects of trade tensions on the economy or inflation were avoided, 27% think the most serious effects have already happened, and 46% think the most serious effects are still to come." }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Workers who use AI say it saves them hours of work", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C1A", "description": "How often do you usually use AI for your main job in a typical week? On average, how much time did you spend actively using AI at work for your main job? Imagine that in a usual week (Monday to Sunday) you did not have access to AI. How many additional hours of work would you have needed to complete the same amount of work? (Hours per week, interpolated median)\n\nNote: Weekly active time using artificial intelligence (AI) is estimated for each respondent by multiplying the midpoint of their reported time spent actively using AI per day at their main job by how often they typically use AI in a week at that job. For the open-ended category of more than 6 hours, 7.5 hours is used. The chart shows the interpolated median of these weekly estimates." }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: Workers use saved time to increase the quality and quantity of their work", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C1B", "description": "How have you leveraged the extra time AI has helped you save? Please check all that apply. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Consumers continue to see tariffs and energy prices as key drivers of inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C2", "description": "What is the most important factor affecting the Bank of Canada’s ability to control inflation in Canada? Choose one. (Share of respondents)" }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Inflation expectations were higher at all horizons after trade talks broke down", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C3", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? (Interpolated median)\n\nNote: Results are based on responses to the survey for the third quarter of 2026. Most responses, 77%, were collected on or before August 21 when trade talks between Canada and the United States broke down. The remaining 23% of responses were collected after August 21. Differences in sample composition may partly explain the gaps in inflation expectations before and after trade talks collapsed." }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: The CSCE indicator improved slightly with consumers’ view of financial health", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C4", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE indicator, average of indexes\n\nNote: The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) indicator is a summary measure of Canadian consumers’ opinions about their spending plans, the labour market and their personal finances. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: The value of financial assets and confidence in the labour market were key reasons for improved expectations of future financial health", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C5", "description": "What factor(s) make you think that you (and any family living with you) will be financially better off 12 months from now than you are these days? Select all that apply. (Quarter-over-quarter change in the share of respondents thinking they will be financially better off 12 months from now)\n\nNote: Among respondents in 2026Q3, about 25% think they will be financially better off 12 months from now than they are today, and 31% think they will be worse off. Quarter-over-quarter changes are measured as the change in the share of respondents from 2026Q2 to 2026Q3." }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: The labour market index continued to improve but remains below the survey average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C6", "description": "Contributions to the CSCE labour market index\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average." }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Workers in the most trade-exposed sectors reported improved perceptions of the labour market before trade talks broke down", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C7", "description": "CSCE labour market index by sector sensitivity to trade\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average. Sectors highly sensitive to trade includes agriculture and forestry, mining and oil and gas, and manufacturing sectors. These are sectors where more than 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States. Sectors less sensitive to trade includes all other private sector industries, where up to 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States, and the public sector. Among employed respondents, 15% work in sectors highly sensitive to trade and 85% in sectors less sensitive to trade. These results mostly reflect economic conditions that prevailed before the breakdown in trade talks between Canada and the United States. Respondents were not asked about the industry of their main job prior to 2018Q2 or in 2019Q4." }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: AI continues to weigh on workers' perceptions of the labour market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C8", "description": "CSCE labour market index by AI task replacement risk\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. Positive (negative) values indicate that consumers’ opinions are positive (negative) compared with the survey average. Sectors where artificial intelligence (AI) poses a lower risk of task replacement include agriculture and forestry, mining and oil and gas, construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing. Less than 20% of employees in these sectors have high exposure to and low complementarity with AI. Sectors where AI poses a higher risk of task replacement include finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; utilities, retail and wholesale trade; public sector; information, culture and recreation; and professional, scientific and technical services, which was added as an option in 2026Q3. More than 20% of employees in these sectors have high exposure to and low complementarity with AI. High-exposure, low-complementarity jobs are those that may be highly exposed to AI-related job transformation and whose tasks could be replaced by AI in the future. Sector classifications are based on T. Mehdi and R. Morissette, "Experimental Estimates of Potential Artificial Intelligence Occupational Exposure in Canada," Statistics Canada Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series No. 478 (September 2024). Across the time series, on average, 72% of the sample is in high-risk sectors and 28% is in low-risk sectors." }, "CSCE_2026Q3_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Growth in spending plans is weaker for consumers expecting the war in the Middle East to significantly raise inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_2026Q3_C9", "description": "Over the next 12 months, what do you expect will happen to the total spending of all members of your household (including you)? Real spending growth expectations by expected impact of the war in the Middle East on inflation (median growth)\n\nNote: In 2026Q3, 18% of respondents expected the war in the Middle East to make inflation significantly higher over the next 12 months, compared with 27% in 2026Q2." }, "CSCE_C2": { "label": "Inflation expectations: uncertainty", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CSCE_C2", "description": "Inflation expectations: uncertainty" }, "CTRF": { "label": "Contingent Term Repo Facility", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CTRF", "description": "Contingent Term Repo Facility" }, "CTRF_RESULTS": { "label": "Contingent Term Repo Facility - Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CTRF_RESULTS", "description": "Contingent Term Repo Facility - Results" }, "CTRF_UPCOMING": { "label": "Contingent Term Repo Facility - Upcoming", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/CTRF_UPCOMING", "description": "Contingent Term Repo Facility - Upcoming" }, "DEBT_2020": { "label": "BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2020?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/DEBT_2020", "description": "BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2020?" }, "DEBT_2021": { "label": "Sovereign Debt Default Data 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/DEBT_2021", "description": "Comprehensive database of sovereign debt defaults from 1960 to 2020" }, "DEBT_2022": { "label": "Debt data 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/DEBT_2022", "description": "Debt data 2022" }, "DEBT_2023": { "label": "Debt data 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/DEBT_2023", "description": "Debt data 2023" }, "DEBT_2024": { "label": "Debt data 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/DEBT_2024", "description": "Debt data 2024" }, "DEBT_2025": { "label": "Debt data 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/DEBT_2025", "description": "Debt data 2025" }, "DEBT_2026": { "label": "Debt data 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/DEBT_2026", "description": "Debt data 2026" }, "DELETE_ME": { "label": "delete", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/DELETE_ME", "description": "delete" }, "E1_MONTHLY": { "label": "Selected monetary aggregates and their components", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/E1_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "E2_GRAPH": { "label": "Historical selected credit measures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/E2_GRAPH", "description": "Monthly average or average of month-ends, rates in percentage" }, "E2_MONTHLY": { "label": "Historical selected credit measures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/E2_MONTHLY", "description": "Monthly average or average of month ends, Millions of dollars" }, "Enquete_sur_les_perspectives_des_entreprises": { "label": "Business Outlook Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/Enquete_sur_les_perspectives_des_entreprises", "description": "A summary of interviews conducted by the Bank's regional offices with the senior management of about 100 firms, selected in accordance with the composition of Canada's gross domestic product.\nThe survey's purpose is to gather the perspectives of these businesses on topics of interest to the Bank of Canada (such as demand and capacity pressures) and their forward-looking views on economic activity." }, "EPS_20200111_C1": { "label": "Wage premium", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20200111_C1", "description": " " }, "EPS_20200111_C2": { "label": "40s Workers with Degree", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20200111_C2", "description": " " }, "EPS_20200111_C3": { "label": "Percentage of workers with education-intensive job", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20200111_C3", "description": " " }, "EPS_20200111_C4": { "label": "University Wage Premium by Job", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20200111_C4", "description": " " }, "EPS_20200615": { "label": "EPS VIGNETTE", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20200615", "description": "EPS VIGNETTE" }, "EPS_20200615_C2": { "label": "Declines in employment were greatest in sectors most affected by physical distancing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20200615_C2", "description": "Percent change between February 2020 and May 2020 (%)\n\nSource: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: May 2020" }, "EPS_20210727": { "label": "What you pay for at the pump", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20210727", "description": "What you pay for at the pump" }, "EPS_20210727_C1": { "label": "Crude oil & taxes make up a majority of gas prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20210727_C1", "description": " " }, "EPS_20220816": { "label": "Canada’s Regional Economies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20220816", "description": "Canada’s Regional Economies" }, "EPS_20220816_C1": { "label": "Tech services have been the fastest growing source of jobs over the past 45 years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20220816_C1", "description": "Employment growth of selected sectors, 1976 to 2021" }, "EPS_20220816_C2": { "label": "Net migration into Alberta", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20220816_C2", "description": "Annual moving average" }, "EPS_20220816_C3": { "label": "Net migration into Alberta", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_20220816_C3", "description": "Annual moving average" }, "EPS_CPI_INFLATION_CONTROL": { "label": "EPS CPI Inflation Renewal", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EPS_CPI_INFLATION_CONTROL", "description": "EPS CPI Inflation Renewal" }, "EXP_20220303": { "label": "Loss absorption explainer", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/EXP_20220303", "description": "Loss absorption explainer" }, "F11_WEEKLY": { "label": "Historical money market trading by type of security", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F11_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "F12_WEEKLY": { "label": "Historical bond market trading by type of security", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F12_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "F13_WEEKLY": { "label": "Historical Government of Canada treasury bill and bond trading with counterparties", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F13_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "F14_WEEKLY": { "label": "Historical strip bond trading and repos by type of security", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F14_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "F2_MONTHLY": { "label": "Historical corporate and other short-term paper outstanding", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F2_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars" }, "F4F10_ABROAD": { "label": "Government of Canada debt securities: Gross new issues, retirements and net new issues - Abroad", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F4F10_ABROAD", "description": "Monthly, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "F4F10_CANADA": { "label": "Government of Canada debt securities: Gross new issues, retirements and net new issues - Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F4F10_CANADA", "description": "Monthly, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "F4F10_CANADAABROAD": { "label": "Government of Canada debt securities: Gross new issues, retirements and net new issues - Canada and abroad", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F4F10_CANADAABROAD", "description": "Monthly, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "F4F10_MONTHLY": { "label": "Government of Canada debt securities: Gross new issues, retirements and net new issues", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F4F10_MONTHLY", "description": "Monthly, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "F4F10_OTHER": { "label": "Government of Canada debt securities: Gross new issues, retirements and net new issues - Other countries", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F4F10_OTHER", "description": "Monthly, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "F4F10_US": { "label": "Government of Canada debt securities: Gross new issues, retirements and net new issues - United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/F4F10_US", "description": "Monthly, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "FAD_2025M03": { "label": "How Canadian businesses and households are reacting to the trade conflict", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FAD_2025M03", "description": "How Canadian businesses and households are reacting to the trade conflict" }, "FAD_2025M03_BUSINESS_PLAN": { "label": "About half of businesses plan to raise prices if tariffs are in place", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FAD_2025M03_BUSINESS_PLAN", "description": "Share of respondents, Business Leaders’ Pulse\n\nRespondents were asked if they intend to raise prices because of tariffs, and, if so, what percentage of the expected tariff costs they plan to pass along to Canadian customers.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FAD_2025M03_FIRMS_CUT": { "label": "Heightened trade uncertainty has led businesses to reduce their hiring and investment plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FAD_2025M03_FIRMS_CUT", "description": "Share of respondents, Business Leaders’ Pulse\n\nRespondents were asked what changes, if any, they anticipate in their employment and capital expenditures due to uncertainty arising from the threat of US tariffs on Canadian goods and retaliatory tariffs on US goods.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FAD_2025M03_HOUSE_SPEND": { "label": "Households plan to spend more cautiously due to trade tensions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FAD_2025M03_HOUSE_SPEND", "description": "Share of respondents, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations\n\nRespondents were asked how they are changing their current spending or savings plans in response to the deterioration in trade relations between Canada and the United States.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FAD_2025M03_IMPACT": { "label": "Both consumers and businesses expect prices to increase due to uncertainty about trade tensions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FAD_2025M03_IMPACT", "description": "Share of respondents, Business Leaders’ Pulse (BLP) and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE)\n\nBLP respondents were asked what changes they expect in their prices due to uncertainty arising from the threat of US tariffs on Canadian goods and retaliatory tariffs on US goods. CSCE respondents were asked how they think their cost of living would be affected if trade relations between Canada and the United States were to change relative to prior to the US election.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FAD_2025M03_INFL_EXP_A": { "label": "Short-term inflation expectations have risen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FAD_2025M03_INFL_EXP_A", "description": "Businesses, quarterly and monthly data\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nConsensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FAD_2025M03_INFL_EXP_B": { "label": "Short-term inflation expectations have risen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FAD_2025M03_INFL_EXP_B", "description": "Consumers and professional forecasters, quarterly and monthly data\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nConsensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FAD_2025M03_JOB_SECURITY": { "label": "Job security concerns are prevalent among those working in industries that rely on exports to the US", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FAD_2025M03_JOB_SECURITY", "description": "Share of workers citing weaker job security, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations\n\nRespondents were asked how they think their own job security would be affected if trade relations between Canada and the United States were to deteriorate relative to before the US election or if US tariffs on Canadian goods and retaliatory tariffs on US good were imposed. Highly sensitive to trade refers to sectors where more than 30% of jobs depend on exports to the United States. Less sensitive to trade refers to sectors where 30% or fewer jobs depend on exports to the United States.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSHUB_20201105": { "label": "Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105", "description": "Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C1": { "label": "Deferral rates by loan type", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C1", "description": "Deferred accounts as a share of all accounts\n\nLast observation: September 2020\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C2": { "label": "Distribution of borrowers across regions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C2", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C3": { "label": "Self-reported reasons for requesting a deferral", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C3", "description": "Last observation: 2020Q3\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C4A": { "label": "Types of payments that homeowners defer", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C4A", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C4B": { "label": "Types of payments that renters defer", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C4B", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C5A": { "label": "Percent of homeowners in each credit score tier", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C5A", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C5B": { "label": "Percent of renters in each credit score tier", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C5B", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C6A": { "label": "Utilization rates of credit cards—homeowners", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C6A", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C6B": { "label": "Utilization rates of credit cards—renters", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C6B", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C6C": { "label": "Utilization rates of HELOCs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C6C", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C6D": { "label": "Utilization rates of unsecured lines of credit—renters", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C6D", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C7": { "label": "Status of payment deferrals", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C7", "description": "As of September 2020\n\nLast observation: September 2020\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C8A": { "label": "Share of accounts at least 30 days behind in payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C8A", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20201105_C8B": { "label": "Share of expired deferrals at least 30 days behind in payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20201105_C8B", "description": "Last observation: September 2020\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210128": { "label": "Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, December 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210128", "description": "Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, December 2020" }, "FSHUB_20210128_C1": { "label": "Deferral rates by loan-type", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210128_C1", "description": "Number of accounts deferred as a share of all accounts\n\nLast observation: December 2020\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210128_C2": { "label": "Status of payment deferrals", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210128_C2", "description": "As of December 2020\n\nLast observation: December 2020\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210128_C3A": { "label": "Share of accounts at least 30 days behind in payments", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210128_C3A", "description": "HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nLast observation: December 2020\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210128_C3B": { "label": "Share of expired deferrals at least 30 days behind in payments", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210128_C3B", "description": "Last observation: December 2020\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210317": { "label": "Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317", "description": "Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C1": { "label": "Housing resales are at record highs and inventory levels at record lows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C1", "description": "Multiple Listings Service months of inventory and residential sales, monthly data\n\nLast observation: February 2021\n\nSource: Canadian Real Estate Association" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C10": { "label": "The proportion of new mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios is trending up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C10", "description": "Share of new mortgages with a loan-to-income ratio greater than 450 percent, quarterly data\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nNote: Data include purchases and refinancing originated by federally regulated financial institutions. High-ratio mortgages have a loan-to-value ratio greater than 80 percent and must be insured. Low-ratio mortgages have a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent or less.\n\nSources: Department of Finance Canada, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C2": { "label": "House price growth has picked up substantially amid tight market conditions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C2", "description": "National house price growth and ratio of sales to new listings, monthly data\n\nLast observation: February 2021\n\nSources: Canadian Real Estate Association and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C3": { "label": "House prices have risen across Canada during the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C3", "description": "Multiple Listing Service Home Price Index, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nLast observation: February 2021\n\nSources: Canadian Real Estate Association and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C4": { "label": "The pandemic has caused a shift in housing preferences toward single-family homes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C4", "description": "Multiple Listing Service Home Price Index, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nLast observation: February 2021\n\nSources: Canadian Real Estate Association and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C5": { "label": "House prices have grown more rapidly in areas farther away from city centres", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C5", "description": "Year-over-year house price growth in 2020Q4 and distance from city centre\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nNote: Observations represent individual forward sortation areas.\n\nSources: Teranet and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C6": { "label": "House price expectations fell at the onset of the pandemic but have since recovered", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C6", "description": "Median expected growth in house prices over the next 12 months, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, quarterly data\n\nLast observation: 2021Q1\n\nNote: Expectations are measured by the interpolated median of expected growth in national house prices over the next 12 months for residents of Ontario and British Columbia. See M. Khan and T. Webley, "Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales," Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2019-12.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C7": { "label": "Some measures show rising exuberance in the housing market for the Greater Toronto Area", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C7", "description": "Housing market indicators for the Greater Toronto Area, monthly data\n\nLast observation: February 2021\n\nSource: Realosophy Realty Inc." }, "FSHUB_20210317_C8": { "label": "Growing mortgage credit is leading to a rise in total household debt", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C8", "description": "Aggregate balances by type of household credit, index: February 2020 = 100, monthly data\n\nLast observation: January 2021\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210317_C9": { "label": "Credit card payments have notably increased among borrowers with low credit scores", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210317_C9", "description": "Credit card payments by credit score categories, index: February 2020 = 100\n\nLast observation: January 2021\n\nNote: Payments are calculated as the share of outstanding balances paid off each month. “Above prime” consumers have credit scores greater than 780; “Prime” consumers have credit scores between 700 and 780; and “below prime” consumers have credit scores less than 700.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210505": { "label": "Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, March 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210505", "description": "Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, March 2021" }, "FSHUB_20210505_C1": { "label": "Deferral rates by loan type", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210505_C1", "description": "Number of accounts deferred as a share of all accounts\n\nLast observation: March 2021\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210505_C2": { "label": "Status of payment deferrals", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210505_C2", "description": "As of March 2021\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210505_C3A": { "label": "Share of accounts at least 30 days behind in payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210505_C3A", "description": "Last observation: March 2021\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210505_C3B": { "label": "Share of expired deferrals at least 30 days behind in payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210505_C3B", "description": "Last observation: March 2021\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210910": { "label": "Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, July 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210910", "description": "Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, July 2021" }, "FSHUB_20210910_C1": { "label": "Status of payment deferrals", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210910_C1", "description": "As of July 2021\n\nNote: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSource: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210910_C2A": { "label": "Share of accounts at least 30 days behind in payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210910_C2A", "description": "Note: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20210910_C2B": { "label": "Share of expired deferrals at least 30 days behind in payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20210910_C2B", "description": "Note: HELOCs are home equity lines of credit.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSHUB_20221006": { "label": "Five things we learned about Canadian Bitcoin owners in 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20221006", "description": "Five things we learned about Canadian Bitcoin owners in 2021" }, "FSHUB_20221006_C1": { "label": "Ownership of Bitcoin jumped in 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20221006_C1", "description": "" }, "FSHUB_20221006_C2": { "label": "Among Bitcoin owners in 2021, 40% showed a low level of understanding of how Bitcoin works", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20221006_C2", "description": "" }, "FSHUB_20221006_C3": { "label": "Investment is the main motivation for Bitcoin owners", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20221006_C3", "description": "Share of recent and long-term Bitcoin owners according to their stated main reason for owning, 2021" }, "FSHUB_20221006_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: The median value of Bitcoin holdings was Can$500 in 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20221006_C4", "description": "Share of recent and long-term Bitcoin owners according to the value of their Bitcoin holdings in Canadian dollars, 2021" }, "FSHUB_20221006_C5": { "label": "One-quarter of cryptoasset owners reported having experienced a price crash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20221006_C5", "description": "Share of cryptoasset owners (including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies) who reported having experienced any of the indicated incidents" }, "FSHUB_20250219": { "label": "Will asset managers dash for cash? A summary of the implications for central banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20250219", "description": "Will asset managers dash for cash? A summary of the implications for central banks" }, "FSHUB_20250219_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Deterioration of market liquidity was disproportionate to the quantity of assets sold to dealers during the COVID-19 crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSHUB_20250219_C1", "description": "Note: Client-to-dealer flows are measured as the sum of purchases and sales of Government of Canada bonds across all maturities for asset managers and other clients in the secondary market. This measure excludes transactions from banks, provinces and municipalities as well as interdealer transactions. The phases of the COVID-19 shock follow those defined in J.-S. Fontaine, H. Ford and A. Walton, “COVID-19 and bond market liquidity: alert, isolation and recovery,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2020-14 (July 2020): Phase 1 indicates when dealers met rising demand for liquidity; Phase 2 indicates significantly worsened trading conditions; Phase 3 indicates a period of relative calm following several Bank interventions. GBBP is the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program. For more information about Roll’s bid-ask proxy, see S. Gungor and J. Yang, “Has Liquidity in Canadian Bond Markets Deteriorated?” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2017-10 (August 2017).\n\nSources: Market Trade Reporting System (MTRS) 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR-2016-DECEMBER": { "label": "December 2016 FSR", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2016-DECEMBER", "description": "December 2016 FSR" }, "FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-2": { "label": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-2", "description": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 2" }, "FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-2A": { "label": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 2A", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-2A", "description": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 2A" }, "FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-5": { "label": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 5", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-5", "description": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 5" }, "FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-6": { "label": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 6", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-6", "description": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 6" }, "FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-7": { "label": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 7", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-7", "description": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 7" }, "FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-8": { "label": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 8", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2016-DECEMBER-CHART-8", "description": "December 2016 FSR, Chart 8" }, "FSR-2017-JUNE": { "label": "June 2017 FSR", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-JUNE", "description": "June 2017 FSR" }, "FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-2": { "label": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-2", "description": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 2" }, "FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-3": { "label": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 3", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-3", "description": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 3" }, "FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-4": { "label": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 4", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-4", "description": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 4" }, "FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-5": { "label": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 5", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-5", "description": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 5" }, "FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-6": { "label": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 6", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-6", "description": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 6" }, "FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-7": { "label": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 7", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-7", "description": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 7" }, "FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-8": { "label": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 8", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-JUNE-CHART-8", "description": "June 2017 FSR, Chart 8" }, "FSR-2017-NOVEMBER": { "label": "November 2017 FSR", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2017-NOVEMBER", "description": "November 2017 FSR" }, "FSR-2018-JUNE": { "label": "Financial System Review - June 2018", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR-2018-JUNE", "description": "Financial System Review - June 2018" }, "FSR_2018JUNE": { "label": "FSR 2018 JUNE", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2018JUNE", "description": "FSR 2018 JUNE" }, "FSR_2018JUNE_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Government bond yields have increased in most advanced economies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2018JUNE_C1", "description": "Yields to maturity on five-year sovereign bonds\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "FSR_2018JUNE_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Canadian bond premiums remain low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2018JUNE_C2", "description": "Notes: The excess bond premium captures compensation for risk beyond expected default and provides a measure of investor sentiment or risk preference in the corporate bond market. The term premium is the estimated term-structure risk-premium component from yields on 10-year zero-coupon government bonds.\n\nSources: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2018JUNE_C2A": { "label": "Chart 2-A: Financial system vulnerabilities increase downside GDP risks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2018JUNE_C2A", "description": "" }, "FSR_2018JUNE_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: House prices declined the most in Toronto neighbourhoods where investor presence was the largest", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2018JUNE_C9", "description": "Note: The share of investors is calculated as the percentage of freehold homes sold through the Multiple Listing Service that were immediately listed for rent through the same system. House price growth is for quality-adjusted benchmark prices of single detached homes.\n\nSources: Realosophy Realty Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2019": { "label": "Financial System Review - 2019", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019", "description": " " }, "FSR_2019_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Asset prices and spreads have returned to their levels of a year ago", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C1", "description": "" }, "FSR_2019_C1-A": { "label": "Households in British Columbia and Ontario are more indebted, and their net worth is concentrated in housing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C1-A", "description": "2016 Survey of Financial Security\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2019_C10": { "label": "Cyber incidents are rising but take a long time to be visible to the public", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C10", "description": "Colours correspond to the date that an incident enters the database\n\nSources: Advisen and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: March 2019" }, "FSR_2019_C11": { "label": "Survey results point to concerns about third-party service providers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C11", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Financial System Survey question: "For the following sources of cyber incidents that could indirectly affect your firm: Assuming the incident materializes over the next two years, how concerned are you that it would severely disrupt your critical activities, functions or processes?"\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Financial System Survey\n\nLast observation: Spring 2019" }, "FSR_2019_C12": { "label": "Debt at risk is above its historical average due to developments in commodity-related sectors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C12", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada Quarterly Survey of Financial Statements and Bank of Canada calculations \n\nLast observation: 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C13": { "label": "Several sectors have increased their reliance on bond financing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C13", "description": "Bonds outstanding, by currency and sector, annual average\n\nNotes:\n1. The data exclude firms in the financial, insurance and management of companies (holding companies) sectors and government-sponsored enterprises.\n2. Conversion from US to Canadian dollars is at the exchange rate in effect for each year.\n\nSources: Refinitiv DataScope Fixed Income data and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C14": { "label": "Increases in outstanding corporate bonds over the past four years have been driven by firms with lower ratings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C14", "description": "Annual average\n\nNotes:\n1. The data exclude firms in the financial, insurance and real estate sectors and bonds issued in currencies other than US and Canadian dollars.\n2. Given that the bond and credit rating data from Refinitiv and Moody’s do not cover the entire market, the actual increase in amount outstanding is larger than the estimates provided in the chart.\n3. Conversion from US to Canadian dollars is at the exchange rate in effect for each year.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Moody's, Refinitiv DataScope Fixed Income data and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C15": { "label": "Canadian firms are increasingly using US high-yield bonds and leveraged loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C15", "description": "Amount outstanding, quarterly\n\nNotes: \n1. The data exclude firms in the financial, insurance and real estate sectors and bonds issued in currencies other than US and Canadian dollars.\n2. Given that the bond and credit rating data from Refinitiv and Moody’s do not cover the entire market, the actual increase in amount outstanding is larger than the estimates provided in the chart.\n3. Conversion from US to Canadian dollars is at the exchange rate in effect for each year.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Moody's, Refinitiv DataScope Fixed Income data and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C16": { "label": "Financial vulnerabilities and stress magnify growth at risk", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C16", "description": "One-year-ahead forecasts of the 5th percentile of GDP growth\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2019Q1" }, "FSR_2019_C17": { "label": "Regulatory capital buffers help make the banking system resilient", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C17", "description": "Common equity Tier 1 capital as a percentage of risk-weighted assets\n\nNote: Desjardins Group operates under capital requirements set by the Autorité des marchés financiers, which are somewhat different than the requirements shown here.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2019_C18": { "label": "A 100-basis-point increase in interest rates would lead to much larger sales of corporate bonds today than a decade ago…", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C18", "description": "Sources: Morningstar Direct, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018" }, "FSR_2019_C19": { "label": "… resulting in a more pronounced impact on corporate bond price", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C19", "description": "Liquidity risk premium\n\nNote: The liquidity risk premium is the compensation for risk beyond expected default.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Morningstar Direct and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018" }, "FSR_2019_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Five-year government bond yields have declined from recent peaks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C2", "description": "" }, "FSR_2019_C2-A": { "label": "Price expectations played a key role in the rise and fall in resale activity in Ontario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C2-A", "description": "Note: Expectations are measured by the interpolated median of expected growth in national house prices over the next 12 months for residents of Ontario. See M. Khan and T. Webley, “Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2019-12.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada\n\nLast observations: House price expections 2019Q1; deviaion of resales, 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C20": { "label": "A deterioration in the global economic outlook is increasingly cited as an important risk to the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C20", "description": "Percentage of respondents who cited a given risk in their top three\n\nNotes: \n1. Financial System Survey question: "Over the next three years, which risks, if realized, do you believe would have the greatest negative impact on the functioning of the Canadian financial system (i.e., can impair the financial system and harm the economy)?" \n2. As part of the question, respondents are asked to list their top three risks. The responses are grouped into different types of risks. \nSource: Bank of Canada Financial System Survey\n\nLast observation: Spring 2019" }, "FSR_2019_C21": { "label": "Market perceptions of the resilience of large banks are in line with pre-crisis levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C21", "description": "Note: See C. MacDonald and M. R. C. van Oordt, “Using Market-Based Indicators to Assess Banking System Resilience,” Bank of Canada Financial System Review (June 2017): 29–41.\n\nSources: Datastream and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: April 2019" }, "FSR_2019_C3": { "label": "Household credit growth has moderated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C3", "description": "Year-over-year growth \n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observations: credit series, March 2019;\ndisposable income, 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C4": { "label": "The ratio of debt to disposable income is stable, while debt to net worth has increased recently", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C4", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C5": { "label": "The share of mortgages going to highly indebted households has stabilized at a lower level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C5", "description": "Share of new mortgages with a loan-to-income greater than 450 per cent\n\nNotes: Data include purchases and refinances originated by federally regulated financial institutions. High-ratio mortgages have a loan-to-value ratio greater than 80 per cent and must be insured. Low-ratio mortgages have a loan-to-value ratio of 80 per cent or less. B-20 is the mortgage underwriting guideline for federally regulated lenders.\n\nSources: Department of Finance Canada, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C6": { "label": "After being steady, the debt-service ratio has recently risen due to higher rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C6", "description": "Note: The debt-service ratio is the ratio of total obligated debt payments divided by disposable income for all households (including those without debt).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C7": { "label": "The market share for private lenders in the Greater Toronto Area continues to grow", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C7", "description": "Mortgage originations \n\nNotes: Originations inlcude purchases, refinances and second mortgages. Mortgage finance companies are not considered private lenders. Volume is seasonally adjusted. Market share is weighted by dollar value.\n\nSources: Teranet and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2019Q1" }, "FSR_2019_C8": { "label": "The share of debtors falling behind on payments is up slightly in oil-producing regions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C8", "description": "Percentage of debtors behind on any payment by at least 60 days\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2018Q4" }, "FSR_2019_C9": { "label": "Regional trends in housing markets continue to differ", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2019_C9", "description": "Seasonally adjusted benchmark prices (Index: January 2015 = 100)\n\nNote: The lines represent averages of quality-adjusted prices weighted by the population of the corresponding census metropolitan areas as defined by Statistics Canada. \n\nSources: Canadian Real Estate Association, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: March 2019" }, "FSR_2020": { "label": "Financial System Review - 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020", "description": "Financial System Review - 2020" }, "FSR_2020_C10": { "label": "Many borrowers can cover only a few months of mortgage payments with liquid assets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C10", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada’s 2016 Survey of Financial Security and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C11": { "label": "Some industries sensitive to COVID‑19 have limited cash buffers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C11", "description": "Ratio of cash to current liabilities\n\nSources: Statistics Canada’s Quarterly Financial Statistics for Enterprises and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C12": { "label": "Policy measures will help reduce cash shortfalls", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C12", "description": "Cash shortfalls over three months\n\nNote: Expenses are assumed to fall between 20 and 30 percent depending on the proportion of fixed costs in the industry.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada’s Quarterly Financial Statistics for Enterprises and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C13": { "label": "Market concerns about business defaults have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C13", "description": "Distance to default, daily data\n\nNote: Distance to default compares asset values with debt values, normalized by asset value volatility. It uses the market value of equity and a simplified capital structure and should be considered indicative of changes in default risk but not a precise measure of potential defaults.\n\nSources: Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C14": { "label": "The rise in mortgage arrears in the scenario is limited by policy actions and payment deferrals", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C14", "description": "Note: The "With policy" scenario includes payment deferrals.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C15": { "label": "Non-performing business loans are also held down by policy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C15", "description": "Source: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C16": { "label": "Capital buffers are adequate to absorb losses in the scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C16", "description": "Common equity Tier 1 capital as a percentage of risk-weighted assets in the scenario with policy and loan payment deferrals\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C2": { "label": "Policy actions have improved liquidity in Government of Canada debt", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C2", "description": "Price-impact proxy, 10-day moving average\n\nNote: The price-impact proxy measures the temporary impact of a trade on the price of the bond. For more details on the price-impact proxy, see S. Gungor and J. Yang, “Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2017-10 (August 2017).\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C3": { "label": "Policy actions are also supporting liquidity for provincial debt", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C3", "description": "10-day moving average\n\nNote: The proxies include all traded provincial bonds with maturities greater than one year\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C3A": { "label": "BA-OIS spreads returned to normal levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C3A", "description": "Daily data\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C3B": { "label": "Less use of bankers' acceptance facility points to better market functioning", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C3B", "description": "Source: Bank of Canada" }, "FSR_2020_C4": { "label": "The deterioration in corporate bond market liquidity has reversed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C4", "description": "Weekly data\n\nNote: ECML is a proxy for corporate bond market liquidity that uses the price and net asset value of exchange-traded funds. For more details on the ECML measure, see See R. Arora, G. Ouellet Leblanc, J. Sandhu and J. Yang, “Using Exchange-Traded Funds to Measure Liquidity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2019-25 (August 2019).\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C7": { "label": "Three-quarters of non-financial investment-grade corporate bonds are now rated BBB+, BBB or BBB-", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C7", "description": "Monthly data\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Intercontinental Exchange Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C8": { "label": "Energy-related bonds could dominate the stock of high-yield debt", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C8", "description": "Share of high-yield bonds\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Intercontinental Exchange Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2020_C9": { "label": "There has been a sharp loss in household employment income", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2020_C9", "description": "Monthly data\n\nNote: The labour underutilization rate is the sum of the other two categories.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C10": { "label": "The distribution of corporate leverage has improved over the past year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C10", "description": "Distribution of businesses, by leverage ratio\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C11": { "label": "Business insolvencies are 30 percent lower than their pre-pandemic levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C11", "description": "Insolvencies filed by businesses, annualized\n\nLast observation: March 2021\n\nSources: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C12": { "label": "Financial system participants are somewhat concerned about the future of the retail and office segments of commercial real estate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C12", "description": "Concern over commercial real estate subsectors in the short and long term\n\nLast observation: spring 2021\n\nNote: Results are in response to the Financial System Survey questions: "In your view, how likely is a sharp valuation adjustment in the following subsectors of CRE in the shorter term?" and "How concerned are you about the following subsectors over the longer term?" Respective risk index weights: not at all likely/concerned: 0 points; slightly likely/concerned: 1 point; somewhat likely/concerned: 2 points; moderately likely/concerned: 3 points; extremely likely/concerned: 4 points.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Financial System Survey" }, "FSR_2021_C15": { "label": "Among firms in the finance and insurance industry, 95 percent use at least one cyber risk management arrangement—more than in any other industry", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C15", "description": "Share of firms within each industry that use at least one cyber risk management arrangement\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nNote: Cyber risk management arrangements include written policies on cyber security, business continuity plans, employees or managers dedicated to cyber security, regular security updates to the operating system or software, and a cyber security insurance policy.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C16": { "label": "Impairing the bank lending channel would require a large and persistent negative shock to household and business income", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C16", "description": "Level of real GDP, index: 2019Q4 = 100\n\nNote: For illustration, the chart displays only one possible reverse-stress-test scenario that pushes the leverage ratio of an average domestic sytemically important bank down to 3.5 percent.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C17": { "label": "Market participants remain confident in the resilience of the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C17", "description": "Last observation: spring 2021\n\nNote: Confidence index weights: not confident at all: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points; completely confident: 4 points. The Bank did not conduct the Financial System Survey in spring 2020 because of the COVID‑19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Financial System Survey" }, "FSR_2021_C18": { "label": "Strong growth in debt and house prices over 2020‒21 increases downside risks to GDP growth in 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C18", "description": "Contributions to the forecast of the 5th percentile of real GDP growth (year-over-year percentage change), based on the projection scenario in the April 2021 Monetary Policy Report\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C19": { "label": "Elevated housing activity and household debt worsen growth at risk over the medium term", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C19", "description": "Density of year-over-year change in real GDP growth by 2023Q4, percent\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C1A": { "label": "A higher loan-to-value ratio is associated with a greater likelihood of future financial stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C1A", "description": "Average predicted probabilities of financial stress, by loan-to-value ratio\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C20": { "label": "Market participants report that medium-term risk has risen, though by less than it had in autumn 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C20", "description": "Last observation: spring 2021\n\nNote: Results are in response to the Financial System Survey question: "In your view, has the probability that an event with the potential to severely impair the functioning of the Canadian financial system will occur in the short term (0–12 months) and medium term (1–3 years) increased, decreased or remained the same compared with six months ago?" Change-in-risk index weights: decreased materially: -2 points; decreased slightly: -1 point; remained unchanged: 0 points; increased slightly: 1 point; increased materially: 2 points. The Bank did not conduct the Financial System Survey in spring 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Financial System Survey" }, "FSR_2021_C3": { "label": "Increasing mortgage debt is leading to a rise in total household debt", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C3", "description": "Aggregate balances by type of household debt, index: February 2020 = 100\n\nLast observation: March 2021\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C4": { "label": "The share of new mortgages with a high loan-to-income ratio has surpassed its 2016‒17 peak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C4", "description": "Share of new mortgages with a loan-to-income ratio greater than 450 percent\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nNote: Data include purchases and refinancing originated by federally regulated financial institutions. Insured mortgages have a loan-to-value ratio greater than 80 percent. Uninsured mortgages have a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent or less. A small portion of mortgages issued with a loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent or less are insured; however, these do not have a material impact on the plotted series.\n\nSources: Department of Finance Canada, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C4A": { "label": "The frequency of natural disaster events has increased over time", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C4A", "description": "Number of natural disasters registered across Canada, 10-year moving average\n\nLast observation: December 2016\n\nNote: Some of the increase in the number of natural disasters over time likely reflects more systematic reporting and better measurement by authorities.\n\nSources: Canadian Disaster Database and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C4B": { "label": "Households vulnerable to both natural disasters and financial stress hold a large portion of household debt, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C4B", "description": "Household debt with varied exposures to natural disaster and financial vulnerabilities as a share of national and provincial household debt\n\nLast observation: 2020Q3\n\nSources: Canadian Disaster Database, TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2021_C5": { "label": "The buildup of new mortgage debt in 2020 came primarily from households with a high loan-to-income ratio and a high loan-to-value ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C5", "description": "Change in the composition of new mortgage debt between 2019 and 2020\n\nLast observation: 2020\n\nNote: The new mortgages are for house purchases only (excludes refinancing). The shares are weighted by the size of the mortgages. This chart covers only new mortgages issued by federally regulated financial institutions.\n\nSource: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks" }, "FSR_2021_C6": { "label": "Housing resales are near record highs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C6", "description": "National residential resales and ratio of sales to new listings\n\nLast observation: April 2021\n\nNote: Residential resales and new listings are seasonally adjusted at annualized rates.\n\nSource: Canadian Real Estate Association" }, "FSR_2021_C7": { "label": "The rapid growth in house prices is more widespread across cities than it was in 2016‒17", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C7", "description": "Year-over-year growth in quality-adjusted benchmark house prices\n\nLast observation: April 2021\n\n* Other cities include Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec, Moncton and St. John's.\n\nSources: Canadian Real Estate Association and Statistics Canada" }, "FSR_2021_C8": { "label": "Expectations of house price growth have increased and broadened regionally", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C8", "description": "Median expected growth in house prices over the next 12 months\n\nLast observation: 2021Q1\n\nNote: Expectations are measured by the interpolated median of expected growth in local house prices over the next 12 months for residents of Ontario and British Columbia. See M. Khan and T. Webley, “Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2019-12.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations" }, "FSR_2021_C9": { "label": "Increased investor demand has not been a significant contributor to the current housing boom in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2021_C9", "description": "Share of properties purchased by investors\n\nLast observation: February 2021\n\nNote: Investors are defined as borrowers who obtain a mortgage to purchase a property while maintaining a mortgage on another property. Investment properties include those that are rented out or left vacant, excluding vacation properties. The share of purchases associated with investors is computed using a 12-month rolling sum of mortgage originations.\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022": { "label": "FSR 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022", "description": "FSR 2022" }, "FSR_2022_C1": { "label": "Yields on sovereign bonds have risen significantly due to expectations of tighter monetary policy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C1", "description": "Five-year sovereign bond yields\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P." }, "FSR_2022_C10": { "label": "Elevated house prices and household debt increase the probability of a decline in GDP over the medium term", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C10", "description": "Density of year-over-year percentage change in real GDP growth in 2024Q1\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C11": { "label": "The share of publicly listed businesses at risk has declined substantially since the start of the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C11", "description": "Shares of all publicly listed businesses with both interest coverage ratio below 1 and current ratio below 1\n\nFactSet and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C12": { "label": "Publicly listed businesses finance their debt using mostly long-dated fixed-rate bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C12", "description": "Composition of debt financing of publicly listed businesses, by type of product and maturity schedule, 2021Q3\n\nFactSet and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C13": { "label": "Issuance of high-yield bonds by Canadian businesses has slowed in 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C13", "description": "Nominal value of high-yield corporate bonds issued by Canadian firms, by industry\n\nValues for 2022 are based on observed levels of issuance until April 18 and annualized for the remainder of the year.\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C14": { "label": "Respondents to the Financial System Survey remain concerned about the possibility of cyber incidents affecting their organization", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C14", "description": "Share of respondents to the Bank’s Financial System Survey that identified cyber incidents as one of the top three risks for their organizations\n\nThere was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSR_2022_C15": { "label": "Cryptoasset markets have grown rapidly since 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C15", "description": "Global market capitalization of cryptoassets\n\nCoinMarketCap" }, "FSR_2022_C16": { "label": "Faced with a severe and prolonged recession, Canadian banks would likely suffer significant financial losses but maintain capital ratios above the regulatory minimum", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C16", "description": "Common equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital as a share of risk-weighted assets\n\n* The yellow horizontal line reflects the domestic stability buffer level that was effective in 2020Q4.\n† The capital conservation buffer includes an additional 1% surcharge for domestic systematically important banks.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C17": { "label": "The confidence of market participants in the resilience of the Canadian financial system has improved over the past year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C17", "description": "Results are in response to the Financial System Survey question: "How confident are you in the Canadian financial system's ability to withstand a large shock?" Confidence index weights: not at all confident: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points; completely confident: 4 points. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSR_2022_C18": { "label": "According to market participants, risks to the financial system have increased relative to autumn 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C18", "description": "Results are in response to the Financial System Survey question: "What is the likelihood that a large shock with the potential to severely impair the functioning of the Canadian financial system will occur in the short term and medium term." }, "FSR_2022_C1A": { "label": "Mortgage rates have increased considerably so far in 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C1A", "description": "Interest rates, daily data\n\nLender Spotlight and Bank of Canada" }, "FSR_2022_C1B": { "label": "About one-third of households have a mortgage, the majority of which have a fixed rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C1B", "description": "Distribution of households by mortgage characteristics, 2021Q4\n\nThe living and mortgage arrangements of “All households” are based on the primary residence of households in the 2019 Survey of Financial Security from Statistics Canada.\n\nStatistics Canada, regulatory filiings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C2": { "label": "Volatility has increased in many asset classes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C2", "description": "The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) is a weighted index of implied volatility on 1-month Treasury options and reflects near-term bond market sentiment. The VIX volatility index is derived from options on the S&P 500 index and reflects near-term equity market sentiment.\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P." }, "FSR_2022_C2A": { "label": "The share of home purchases by investors increased in 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C2A", "description": "Share of mortgaged home purchases by investors\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C2B": { "label": "Equity extraction among investors has risen since the start of the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C2B", "description": "Share and median amount of equity extracted by mortgaged investors from their properties\n\nThese investors have taken out at least $5,000 in equity in the three months before they purchased an investment property.\n\nTransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C3": { "label": "Household net worth has increased by about $230,000 on average since the pandemic began, largely reflecting higher house prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C3", "description": "Contribution to the change in household net worth since the start of the pandemic, average per household\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C3A": { "label": "Firms issuing high-yield bonds also use equity, bank loans and lines of credit", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C3A", "description": "Financing sources for firms issuing high-yield debt as a share of longer-term funding\n\nFactSet, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C3B": { "label": "Most high-yield bonds issued by Canadian publicly listed businesses will not mature for four years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C3B", "description": "Maturity schedule of high-yield bonds\n\nFactSet, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C4": { "label": "Simulations suggest that households of all levels of indebtedness have increased their liquidity buffers, but highly indebted households have done so the least", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C4", "description": "Median number of months of liquid assets as a share of household expenditures, by debt-to-income group\n\nValues for 2021 were estimated using the new version of the Household Risk Assessment Model. Numbers in parentheses below the labels for each debt-to-income group are the estimated share of indebted households in each group in 2021.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C4A": { "label": "The Bank’s quantitative easing program put upward pressure on the liquidity coverage ratio of major Canadians banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C4A", "description": "Total liquidity coverage ratio across Canada’s Big Six banks\n\nThe liquidity coverage ratio is defined as the ratio of high-quality liquid assets to total net cash outflows over the next 30 calendar days. Canada’s Big Six banks are federally regulated financial institutions that have been designated as systemically important to the Canadian financial system by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Canada’s six major banks are the Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank of Canada.\n\nBig Six banks’ public quarterly financial statements" }, "FSR_2022_C5": { "label": "An increasing share of households are stretching financially to purchase a house", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C5", "description": "Share of low-ratio mortgage originations with specific vulnerability characteristics\n\nData include purchases and refinancing originated by federally regulated financial institutions. Low-ratio mortgages have a loan-to-value ratio of 80% or less.\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C6": { "label": "The share of highly indebted households in 2021 is on track to surpass pre-pandemic highs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C6", "description": "Share of indebted households with a debt-to-income ratio greater than 350%\n\nIndebted households represented 62% of all households in 2019.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2022_C7": { "label": "The resale market has softened in 2022 but remains tight", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C7", "description": "Seasonally adjusted at annualized rates\n\nCanadian Real Estate Association" }, "FSR_2022_C9": { "label": "Strong growth in debt and house prices since 2020 increases downside risk to GDP growth in 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2022_C9", "description": "Contributions to the forecast of the 5th percentile of real GDP growth (year-over-year percentage change)\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2023": { "label": "FSR 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023", "description": "FSR 2023" }, "FSR_2023_C10": { "label": "House prices have fallen in nearly all major cities in Canada since February 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C10", "description": "Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark, percentage change compared with February 2020\n\nCities around Greater Toronto are based on the real estate boards of Guelph, Hamilton–Burlington, Niagara Region and Oakville–Milton.\n\nThe Canadian Real Estate Association and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2023_C11": { "label": "The share of mortgages in arrears increased during most previous recessions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C11", "description": "The spike in the unemployment rate during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic translated into only a marginal increase in mortgage arrears. This is mainly because governments stepped in with income-support measures and banks allowed payment deferrals.\n\nStatistics Canada and Canadian Bankers Association" }, "FSR_2023_C12": { "label": "To date, about one-third of mortgages have had their payments increase, and this share will rise to nearly all mortgages over the next three years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C12", "description": "Cumulative share (by count) of mortgages subject to a payment increase (relative to the payment in February 2022)\n\nThe mortgage rates used to calculate this chart are consistent with market expectations (see Box 1).\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2023_C13": { "label": "The aggregate balance sheet of non-financial businesses remains healthy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C13", "description": "Indicators of leverage and liquidity, quarterly data\n\nDebt excludes corporate claims.\n\nStatistics Canada" }, "FSR_2023_C14": { "label": "Business insolvencies have returned to pre-pandemic levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C14", "description": "Seasonally adjusted at annualized rates, 3-month moving average\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2023_C15": { "label": "The financial sector has the largest share of reported cyber attacks globally", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C15", "description": "Share of cyber attacks reported globally by sector\n\nThe shares are calculated based on all cyber attacks reported globally and collected by Advisen since 1974.\n\nAdvisen and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2023_C16": { "label": "The market capitalization of cryptoassets has declined since early 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C16", "description": "Global market capitalization of cryptoassets\n\nCoinMarketCap" }, "FSR_2023_C1A": { "label": "For households with fixed mortgage payments, the largest increase in payments should happen for those that renew in 2025 and 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C1A", "description": "Average percentage increase in mortgage payment relative to February 2022\n\nFor borrowers with variable-rate mortgages with variable payments, the average increase in payments mostly occurred in 2022 (+42%) with an additional rise of 7 percentage points registered in 2023, putting their cumulative change in mortgage payments to 49% in 2023 compared with what they were paying in February 2022. For borrowers with fixed-rate mortgages, the average increase in payments reported in this chart occurs at the time of renewal only. For borrowers with variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments, the increase in payment is the combination of some borrowers facing higher payments before and at the time of renewal.\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2023_C4": { "label": "Large Canadian banks depend relatively more on wholesale funding and less on deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C4", "description": "Composition of total liabilities and equity of Canadian and foreign banks\n\nSIBs stands for “systemically important banks.” SMSBs stands for “small and medium-sized banks.\n\nFitch Solutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2023_C5": { "label": "Since mid-2022, deposits at Canadian banks have shifted from demand to term deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C5", "description": "Total deposits, change compared with January 2020\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSR_2023_C7": { "label": "Market participants have confidence in the resilience of the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C7", "description": "Results are in response to the Financial System Survey (FSS) question: “How confident are you in the Canadian financial system’s ability to withstand a large shock?” There was no FSS in spring 2020 due to the COVID‑19 pandemic. After the spring 2022 FSS, the Bank reduced the frequency of the FSS from twice per year to once per year, so there was no FSS in autumn 2022.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSR_2023_C8": { "label": "The cost of trading in Government of Canada bond markets rose during recent banking stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C8", "description": "Bid-ask spread for Government of Canada bonds, 21-day moving average\n\nThe bid-ask proxy is the Roll measure, which estimates the effective bid-ask spread using realized trade prices.\n\nCanadian Depository for Securities Limited and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2023_C9": { "label": "Market participants would meet most increases in margin requirements using assets and cash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2023_C9", "description": "Degree to which increases in margin requirements that would be met with each funding source\n\nThe index is a weighted average ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: all: 3 points; most: 2 points; some: 1 point; none: 0 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. We have combined responses for increases in initial margin and variation margin due to similarity among responses. For improved comparability, we have also rescaled the blue bars in units of the yellow bars.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSR_2024": { "label": "FSR 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024", "description": "FSR 2024" }, "FSR_2024_C1": { "label": "The increase in delinquencies on consumer debt products over the past 12 months has been concentrated among borrowers without a mortgage", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C1", "description": "Share of borrowers with credit products in arrears by 60 days or more, by mortgage status, seasonally adjusted\n\nTransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C10": { "label": "The share of mortgages in arrears has risen more for small and medium-sized banks than for large banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C10", "description": "Share of outstanding balance for residential mortgages in arrears by 90 days or more\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C11": { "label": "Asset managers have generally increased their holdings of liquid assets since the start of monetary policy tightening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C11", "description": "Changes to the asset portfolios of investment fund managers, insurers and pension funds since March 2022\n\nResults are in response to the following question from the Bank of Canada’s 2024 Financial System Survey: “Please indicate how your organization has changed its exposure to each of the following asset classes … in response to the higher policy rates and bond yields observed since the start of monetary policy tightening in 2022.” For simplicity, some responses for some asset classes have been aggregated to broader asset class buckets. Respondents who reported that an asset class was not applicable to their organization are excluded in the responses for that asset class.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSR_2024_C1A": { "label": "Business insolvencies have increased steadily since early 2022 and more sharply since the middle of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C1A", "description": "Insolvencies filed by businesses, all industries\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C1B": { "label": "In many industries, the rise in business insolvencies since the end of 2022 is similar in size to the decline seen during the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C1B", "description": "Business insolvencies, cumulative deviations from pre-pandemic average levels, by industry\n\nEach bubble represents 1 of 19 industries in the North American Industry Classification System. For ease of illustration, the construction sector is excluded. The size of each bubble is proportional to the industry's gross domestic product. For each industry, the levels of below- and above-average insolvencies are calculated as the cumulative sum (over the specified period) of the difference between the number of business insolvencies in a given month and the average number of business insolvencies in that industry between 2016 and 2019. The below-average period is from January 2020 to October 2022; the above-average period is from November 2022 to March 2024. These periods are used for all calculations for all 19 industries.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C2": { "label": "Households without a mortgage have increased their reliance on credit card debt over the past 12 months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C2", "description": "Indicators of credit card use by Canadians without a mortgage, seasonally adjusted\n\nConsumers are categorized as carrying an outstanding credit card balance when they do not pay fully their credit card balance—on at least one of their credit cards—for at least two consecutive months.\n\nTransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C2A": { "label": "Market pricing has diverged across commercial real estate subsectors in Canada since the start of the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C2A", "description": "Closing price of Canadian real estate investment trusts within the S&P/TSX Composite Index, index: January 2, 2020 = 100\n\nRefinitiv Eikon and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C3": { "label": "Mortgages renewing over the coming years will see gradually larger payment increases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C3", "description": "Median percentage increase in mortgage payment at renewal compared at origination\n\nThe mortgage rates used to calculate results are based on market expectations as at April 25, 2024. Increases are estimated on the stock of mortgages outstanding in February 2022.\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C3A": { "label": "Volumes in cash-futures basis trading have grown steadily", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C3A", "description": "Cash-futures basis trading, by tenor\n\nAll cash-futures basis trading volumes are assumed to be captured by Montréal Exchange’s exchange-for-physical trade packages.\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C3B": { "label": "The share of trading volumes of Government of Canada bonds in the cash-futures basis trade has increased since 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C3B", "description": "Indicators of the relative importance of cash-futures basis trading\n\nAll cash-futures basis trading volumes are assumed to be captured by Montréal Exchange’s exchange-for-physical trade packages, and executed with Government of Canada bonds financed with repurchase agreements.\n\nMontréal Exchange, Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C4": { "label": "Debt-servicing costs for new mortgages have risen substantially since 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C4", "description": "Indicators of debt-servicing costs on new mortgages\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C5": { "label": "Households still carry larger holdings of liquid assets than before the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C5", "description": "Median equivalent number of months of after-tax income worth of liquid assets, by homeownership status\n\nLiquid assets include chequing and savings deposits, guaranteed investment certificates, stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, mutual funds held in non-registered accounts and tax-free savings accounts.\n\nCanadian Financial Monitor Survey and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C6": { "label": "The aggregate balance sheet of non-financial businesses deteriorated somewhat but remains healthy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C6", "description": "Indicators of leverage and liquidity\n\nDebt excludes corporate claims.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C7": { "label": "Canadian businesses’ debt-servicing costs have been increasing since 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C7", "description": "Interest expenses as a share of earnings, 4-quarter moving average\n\nData are for publicly listed businesses headquartered in Canada. Earnings are before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.\n\nFactSet and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2024_C9": { "label": "The shares of impaired loans at large Canadian banks have increased slightly from pandemic-related low levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2024_C9", "description": "Gross impaired loans at large banks, as a share of total loans, by credit category\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025": { "label": "FSR 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025", "description": "FSR 2025" }, "FSR_2025_C1": { "label": "Signs of financial stress remain concentrated among households without a mortgage and have increased over the past 12 months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C1", "description": "Share of borrowers with credit products in arrears by 60 days or more, by mortgage status, seasonally adjusted\n\nTo protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nTransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C10": { "label": "A severe and long-lasting global trade war could push the rate of mortgage arrears beyond levels reached in the 2008–09 global financial crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C10", "description": "Share of mortgages in arrears by 90 days or more\n\nCanadian Bankers Association and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Estimated credit loss rates in the FSAP risk scenario are highest for credit cards and business credit products", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C1A", "description": "3-year cumulative provision for credit losses as a percentage of initial loan balances, by product line\n\nNote: FSAP is the International Monetary Fund’s Financial Sector Assessment Program.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1-B: In the FSAP risk scenario, capital ratios breach the domestic stability buffer but remain above the regulatory minimum", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C1B", "description": "Note: FSAP is the International Monetary Fund’s Financial Sector Assessment Program. The yellow horizontal line reflects the domestic stability buffer level that was effective in 2024Q4 and the level assumed in the FSAP risk scenario. The capital conservation buffer includes the additional surcharge of 1% for domestic systemically important banks.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C2": { "label": "The average payment increase for mortgages renewing in 2025–26 will be smaller than was anticipated last year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C2", "description": "Average change in mortgage payments at renewal (in percent, compared with December 2023 payments)\n\nThe mortgage interest rates used in calculations for 2025 are based on market expectations for interest rates as at April 28, 2025. The mortgage interest rates used in calculations for 2024 are based on market expectations for interest rates as at April 25, 2024.\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C2A": { "label": "Chart 2-A: Canadian banks’ exposure to asset managers are mainly related to securities financing transactions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C2A", "description": "Large Canadian banks’ exposure at default to asset managers, by type of asset manager and financial instrument (in Can$ billions)" }, "FSR_2025_C2B": { "label": "Chart 2-B: NBFIs have significant capacity through committed but undrawn lines of credit with banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C2B", "description": "Drawn and undrawn amounts associated with NBFI credit facilities, by type of entity\n\nNote: NBFIs are non-bank financial intermediaries.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C3": { "label": "The aggregated balance sheet of non-financial businesses remains healthy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C3", "description": "Indicators of liquidity and leverage\n\nDebt excludes corporate claims.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C3A": { "label": "Chart 3-A: Canadian and US swap spreads are now negative", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C3A", "description": "Swap–bond yield spreads, Canada and United States (in basis points)\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C4": { "label": "Business insolvencies have declined from the peak reached in early 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C4", "description": "Insolvencies filed by businesses, all industries\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C5": { "label": "Bank credit spreads have returned close to pre-pandemic levels in recent months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C5", "description": "Credit spreads and funding costs for large banks (in basis points)\n\nBMO Sapphire, Bloomberg L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C6": { "label": "The shares of impaired loans at large Canadian banks have increased across most credit categories but remain low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C6", "description": "Impaired loans at large banks, by credit category (share of total loan value)\n\nBusiness loans include non-residential mortgages.\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C7": { "label": "Hedge funds are taking an increasing share of Government of Canada bond auctions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C7", "description": "Share of the auction value of Government of Canada bonds allocated to hedge funds, by tenor\n\nDepartment of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C8": { "label": "Banks continue to increase funding in repo markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C8", "description": "Outstanding amount of Canadian-dollar reverse repurchase agreements (repos) reported on the balance sheets of large Canadian banks\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2025_C9": { "label": "Some export-driven manufacturers could face financial risks from tariffs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2025_C9", "description": "Dimensions of business vulnerability to a trade war with the United States, by industry\n\nEach bubble represents industries in the North American Industry Classification System. The size of each bubble is proportional to the industry’s outstanding debt balance in 2024.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026": { "label": "FSR 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026", "description": "Canada’s financial system has functioned well through a challenging year. Households and businesses remain in stable financial condition, and banks have strengthened their capacity to absorb shocks. However, vulnerabilities have increased in some parts of the system, and a more turbulent global environment poses risks to financial stability." }, "FSR_2026_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Risk premiums and spreads are compressed and valuation measures are elevated relative to their historical distribution", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C1", "description": "Percentile of historical distribution\n\nNote: Percentiles reflect the period of June 2008 to May 2026. 1-year forward earnings yield is the inverse price-to-earnings ratio.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., London Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: Impairment rates on business loans have plateaued in recent quarters", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C10", "description": "Gross impaired loans from banks to Canadian and foreign businesses, as a share of total business loans\n\nNote: A lender deems a loan impaired when full repayment according to the original terms is no longer expected (e.g., default, bankruptcy or severe delinquency).\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C11": { "label": "Chart 11: Loan impairments for small businesses continue to edge up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C11", "description": "Gross impaired loans from large banks to Canadian businesses, as a share of loans per category\n\nNote: Small business loans can be up to $1.5 million and are managed by banks as retail exposures. Corporate loans are for large companies that typically have at least $500 million in annual revenue; banks manage these loans as corporate exposures. These groupings represent 6% and 17% of Canadian business loans, respectively, at large Canadian banks.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C12": { "label": "Chart 12: Funding spreads of systemically important banks are at historical lows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C12", "description": "Yield spread between 5-year senior deposit notes and 5-year Government of Canada benchmark bonds\n\nSource: BMO Sapphire and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C13": { "label": "Chart 13: Systemically important banks have increased their allowances for credit losses", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C13", "description": "Allowances for credit losses as a share of total loans\n\nSources: Public financial reports of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C14": { "label": "Chart 14: Gross repo borrowing by asset managers remains elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C14", "description": "Estimates of Canadian-dollar repurchase agreement (repo) positions outstanding\n\nNote: Others includes other clients of dealers, such as foreign central banks and sub-sovereigns.\n\nSources: Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C15": { "label": "Chart 15: In the stress-test scenario, a repricing of risk assets could push household mortgage arrears to multi-decade highs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C15", "description": "Share of mortgages in arrears by 90 days or more\n\nNote: The Bank of Canada constructed a stress-test scenario that takes the illustrative scenario in the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report and adds a severe increase in financial stress.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Canadian Bankers Association, Canadian Real Estate Association and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "FSR_2026_C16": { "label": "Chart 16: In the stress-test scenario, a repricing of risk assets could cause corporate default rates to return to 2008–09 global financial crisis levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C16", "description": "Annual default rate for corporate loans\n\nNote: The Bank of Canada constructed a stress-test scenario that takes the illustrative scenario in the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report and adds a severe increase in financial stress.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "FSR_2026_C17": { "label": "Chart 17: The volume of repo transactions has climbed steadily over the past five years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C17", "description": "Repurchase agreement (repo) volume, 15-day moving average\n\nSources: Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C18": { "label": "Chart 18: The volume of Government of Canada bonds and treasury bills available to the market has increased since 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C18", "description": "Note: The Government of Canada free float is calculated as the total stock of Government of Canada bonds and treasury bills minus the Bank of Canada’s holdings of Government of Canada bonds and treasury bills.\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Information technology makes up an increasingly large share of the S&P 500", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C2", "description": "Percent of overall S&P 500 valuation\n\nNote: GICS is the Global Industry Classification Standard. IT is information technology.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Sustained fiscal deficits are expected in many jurisdictions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C3", "description": "General government fiscal balances as a percentage of GDP, annual data\n\nNote: General government fiscal balances are the net lending or borrowing of a jurisdiction’s entire government sector (this includes governments at the federal, state/provincial/territorial/regional, and local/municipal levels).\n\nSource: International Monetary Fund via Haver Analytics" }, "FSR_2026_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Term premiums have risen in recent years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C4", "description": "ACM 10-year term premiums, by country, daily data\n\nNote: Term premiums are calculated using the model developed by Adrian, Crump and Moench (ACM) in T. Adrian, R. K. Crump and E. Moench, “Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 340 (August 2008, revised April 2013).\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: High indebtedness remains a vulnerability, somewhat offset by rising net worth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C5", "description": "Household debt ratios, quarterly data\n\nSource: Statistics Canada" }, "FSR_2026_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Financial stress has largely stabilized for both mortgage holders and non-mortgage holders", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C6", "description": "Share of borrowers in arrears by 60 days or more on at least one credit product, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank of Canada. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Mortgage arrears remain low but have increased among borrowers with large balances relative to income", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C7", "description": "Share of mortgage accounts in arrears by 60 days or more\n\nNote: Toronto refers to Statistics Canada’s census metropolitan area. High LTI means a loan-to-income ratio higher than 450%. Percentages shown above each group indicate that group’s share of outstanding mortgage balances in Canada. To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank of Canada. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Holders of fixed-payment mortgages with terms of five years or more will see large payment increases at renewal over the next 12 months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C8", "description": "Average change in mortgage payments at renewal (in percent, compared with December 2025 payments) and share of mortgage accounts, by mortgage term and payment type\n\nNote: The mortgage interest rates used in calculations are based on market expectations for interest rates as at May 19, 2026.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSR_2026_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Business leverage has been stable since the previous Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSR_2026_C9", "description": "Measures of business leverage\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FSS_2018FALL": { "label": "Financial System Survey Highlights", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2018FALL", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "FSS_2018FALL_C1": { "label": "Just under half of respondents see a slight increase in the probability of an adverse high-impact event over the past six months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2018FALL_C1", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2018FALL_C2": { "label": "Around 95 per cent of respondents are at least fairly confident that the financial system would be resilient in the event of a large adverse shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2018FALL_C2", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2018FALL_C3": { "label": "Cyber attacks and a deterioration in the global economic outlook were identified as the most important risks to the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2018FALL_C3", "description": "Percentage of respondents who cited a given risk in their top three\n\nNote: As part of the question, participants are asked to write down their top 3 risks. The responses are then categorized by types of risks as shown in the graph." }, "FSS_2018FALL_C4": { "label": "About a quarter of respondents believe a 150- to 200-basis-point rise in the 5-year GoC bond yield over the next 12 months is enough to trigger a house price correction in Canada or a large increase in household defaults", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2018FALL_C4", "description": "Percentage of respondents who believe a given increase is enough to trigger the noted risk" }, "FSS_2018FALL_C5": { "label": "A majority of respondents believe a house price correction or a large increase in household defaults would be somewhat likely, likely or very likely to impair the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2018FALL_C5", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2018FALL_C6": { "label": "Respondents estimate a 5 per cent chance that the 5-year GoC bond yield will rise more than 150 basis points over the next 12 months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2018FALL_C6", "description": "Per cent chance of observing a given range of increase in 5-year GoC yield over the next 12 months, average of respondents' estimates\n\nNote: For reference, 5-year GoC yield was roughly 215 basis points during the survey period" }, "FSS_2018FALL_C7": { "label": "Machine learning/artificial intelligence and big data are still expected to be the most important financial innovations over the next three years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2018FALL_C7", "description": "Percentage of respondents who cited a given innovation in their top three" }, "FSS_2019FALL": { "label": "Bank of Canada Financial System Survey Highlights, Fall 2019", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "FSS_2019FALL_C1": { "label": "Two out of three respondents say that the probability of a high-impact event occuring has increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL_C1", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2019FALL_C2": { "label": "Respondents remain confident in the resilience of the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL_C2", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2019FALL_C3": { "label": "A deterioration in the global economic outlook, a cyber incident and geopolitical risk were cited as the most important risks to the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL_C3", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2019FALL_C4": { "label": "A deterioration in the global economic outlook and a cyber incident were cited as important risks to organization's activities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL_C4", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2019FALL_C5": { "label": "Respondents see decreases in the value of assets as the main channel for physical risk", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL_C5", "description": "Percentage of respondents who view these channels as important or very important" }, "FSS_2019FALL_C6": { "label": "Respondents see damage to their reputation as the main channel for transition risk", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL_C6", "description": "Percentage of respondents who view these risks as important or very important" }, "FSS_2019FALL_C7": { "label": "Respondents believe metrics and targets and uncertainity are the greatest challenges when assessing the impact of climate change on their organization's activities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL_C7", "description": "Percentage of respondents who view these risks as the most important" }, "FSS_2019FALL_C8": { "label": "Of the respondents, 60 percent provide considerable or partial disclosure on governance and strategy topics related to climate change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019FALL_C8", "description": "Percentage of respondents who provide partial or considerable exposure" }, "FSS_2019SPRING": { "label": "Bank of Canada Financial System Survey Highlights, Spring 2019", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019SPRING", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "FSS_2019SPRING_C1": { "label": "Two out of five respondents say that the probability of a high-impact event occurring has slightly increased, while three out of five say there’s been no change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019SPRING_C1", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2019SPRING_C2": { "label": "Confidence in the resiliency of the Canadian financial system remains high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019SPRING_C2", "description": "Percentage of respondents" }, "FSS_2019SPRING_C3": { "label": "A deterioration in the global economic outlook is increasingly cited as an important risk to the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019SPRING_C3", "description": "Percentage of respondents who cited a given risk in their top 3\n\nNote: As part of the question, respondents are asked to write down their top three risks. The responses are grouped into different types of risks." }, "FSS_2019SPRING_C4": { "label": "A cyber incident continues to be the most cited risks to firm's activities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019SPRING_C4", "description": "Percentage of respondents who cited a given risk in their top 3\n\nNote: As part of the question, respondents are asked to write down their top three risks. The responses are grouped into different types of risks." }, "FSS_2019SPRING_C5": { "label": "Respondents are most concerned about the cyber incidents that could corrupt their data or lead to the public release of confidential information", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019SPRING_C5", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\n*For each type of cyber incident, respondents were asked to select one of five options: very concerned, concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, not at all concerned.\n** Respondents were asked to select the type of cyber incident that they are planning to dedicate the most cybersecurity resources towards over the next two years." }, "FSS_2019SPRING_C6": { "label": "Respondents are also concerned that a cyber incident affecting a third party service provider could severely disrupt their own critical activities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019SPRING_C6", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\n*For each source of cyber incident, respondents were asked to select one of five options: very concerned, concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, not at all concerned.\n** Respondents were asked to select the source of cyber incident that they are planning to dedicate the most cybersecurity resources towards over the next two years." }, "FSS_2019SPRING_C7": { "label": "Machine learning and artificial intelligence are still expected to be the most important financial innovations over the next three years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2019SPRING_C7", "description": "Percentage of respondents who cited a given risk in their top 3\n\nNote: As part of the question, respondents are asked to write down their top three innovations. The responses are then grouped into different types of innovations." }, "FSS_2020FALL": { "label": "Financial System Survey Highlights", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL", "description": "Financial System Survey Highlights" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C1": { "label": "Confidence in the financial system to withstand a severe impact", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C1", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: The confidence index is constructed with the following weights: completely confident: 2 points; very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 0 points; not very confident: -1 point; not at all confident: -2 points.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C10": { "label": "Difficulties conducting transactions in financial markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C10", "description": "Proportion of active respondents in percent\n\nNote: Order of markets based on a weighted index (major difficulties: 2 points; minor difficulties: 1 point).\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C11": { "label": "Impact in funding markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C11", "description": "Portion of active respondents in percent\n\nNote: Order of funding markets based on a weighted index (high impact: 2 points; moderate impact: 1 point). Other short-term unsecured funding includes deposit notes and certificates of deposit. Short-term secured funding includes repurchase agreements, asset-backed commercial paperand securities lending with cash collateral.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C2": { "label": "Ranking of the effectiveness of COVID-19 interventions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C2", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Order of interventions based on a weighted index (1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point).\n* All Bank of Canada purchases except for Government of Canada bonds, provincial bonds and bankers' acceptances\n† OSFI: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C3": { "label": "Short-term risk of a shock that could impair the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C3", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: The risk index is constructed with the following weights: increased materially: 2 points; increased slightly: 1 point; remained unchanged: 0 points; decreased slightly: -1 point; decreased materially: -2 points.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C4": { "label": "Medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C4", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: The risk index is constructed with the following weights: increased materially: 2 points; increased slightly: 1 point; remained unchanged: 0 points; decreased slightly: -1 point; decreased materially: -2 points.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C5": { "label": "Top risks to the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C5", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Respondents are asked to rank their top three risks. The chart aggregates all rankings for each risk type.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C6": { "label": "Top risks to your organization", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C6", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Respondents are asked to rank their top three risks. The chart aggregates all rankings for each risk type.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C7": { "label": "Scenarios that pose the greatest risk to the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C7", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Order of scenarios based on a weighted index (1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point).\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C8": { "label": "Concern about the impact of rising solvency risk on the financial sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C8", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2020FALL_C9": { "label": "Sectors most vulnerable to a rise in solvency risk", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2020FALL_C9", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Order of sectors based on a weighted index (1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point).\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Autumn 2020 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021FALL": { "label": "Financial System Survey highlights—Autumn 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021FALL", "description": "Financial System Survey highlights—Autumn 2021" }, "FSS_2021FALL_C1": { "label": " Short- and medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021FALL_C1", "description": "Note: Risk index weights: not at all likely: 0 points; slightly likely: 1 point; somewhat likely: 2 points; moderately likely: 3 points; extremely likely: 4 points.  \n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2021FALL_C1A": { "label": "Change in short- and medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021FALL_C1A", "description": "Note: Respondents report how much risks have changed over the past six months. The change-in-risk index measures the average reported change, not the level of risk. Change-in-risk index weights: decreased materially: -2 points; decreased slightly: -1 point; remained unchanged: 0 points; increased slightly: 1 point; increased materially: 2 points.There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID‑19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2021FALL_C2": { "label": "Confidence in the financial system’s ability to withstand a large shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021FALL_C2", "description": "Note: Confidence index weights: not at all confident: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points; completely confident: 4 points. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID‑19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2021FALL_C3": { "label": "Top risks to your organization", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021FALL_C3", "description": "Note: Risk index weights: 1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID‑19 pandemic.  \n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2021FALL_C4": { "label": "Top new developments that organizations are monitoring", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021FALL_C4", "description": "Note: "Others" includes credit rating agencies, credit unions, exchanges and clearing houses, finance/trust companies and public institutions. ESG stands for environmental, social and governance.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2021FALL_C5": { "label": "Effect of low interest rates on the ability to meet profit or return goals", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021FALL_C5", "description": "Note: "Others" includes credit rating agencies, credit unions, exchanges and clearing houses, finance/trust companies and public institutions.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2021FALL_C6": { "label": "Scenarios that could trigger a severe repricing of risk assets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021FALL_C6", "description": "Note: "Others" includes credit rating agencies, credit unions, exchanges and clearing houses, finance/trust companies and public institutions.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2021SPRING": { "label": "Financial System Survey highlights—Spring 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING", "description": "Financial System Survey highlights—Spring 2021" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C1": { "label": "Change in short-term risk of a shock that could impair the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C1", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Respondents report how much risks have changed over the past six months. The change-in-risk index measures the average reported change, not the level of risk. Change-in-risk index weights: decreased materially: -2 points; decreased slightly: -1 point; remained unchanged: 0 points; increased slightly: 1 point; increased materially: 2 points. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C10": { "label": "Change in subsector exposure within one year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C10", "description": "Percentage of respondents*\n\nNote: The change-in-exposure index is constructed with the following weights: decrease materially: -2 points; decrease slightly: -1 point; remain unchanged: 0 points; increase slightly: 1 point; increase materially: 2 points.\n* Only includes respondents with exposure to each subsector\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C2": { "label": "Change in medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C2", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Respondents report how much risks have changed over the past six months. The change-in-risk index measures the average reported change, not the level of risk. Change-in-risk index weights: decreased materially: -2 points; decreased slightly: -1 point; remained unchanged: 0 points; increased slightly: 1 point; increased materially: 2 points. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C3": { "label": "Confidence in the financial system's ability to withstand a severe impact", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C3", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Confidence index weights: not confident at all: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points: completely confident: 4 points. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C4": { "label": "Top risks to the financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C4", "description": "Note: Risk index weights: 1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C5": { "label": "Top risks to your organization", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C5", "description": "Note: Risk index weights: 1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C6": { "label": "Likeliness of a sharp valuation adjustment in the short term", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C6", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: The risk index is constructed with the following weights: extremely likely: 4 points; moderately likely: 3 points; somewhat likely: 2 points; slightly likely: 1 point; not at all likely: 0 points.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C7": { "label": "Concern that a sharp valuation adjustment will have knock-on effects", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C7", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: The risk index is constructed with the following weights: extremely concerned: 4 points; moderately concerned: 3 points; somewhat concerned: 2 points; slightly concerned: 1 point; not at all concerned: 0 points.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C8": { "label": "Long-term concern over CRE subsectors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C8", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: The risk index is constructed with the following weights: extremely concerned: 4 points; moderately concerned: 3 points; somewhat concerned: 2 points; slightly concerned: 1 point; not at all concerned: 0 points. CRE stands for commercial real estate.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2021SPRING_C9": { "label": "Greatest long term risks to CRE", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2021SPRING_C9", "description": "Percentage of respondents\n\nNote: Order of factors based on a weighted index (1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point). CRE stands for commercial real estate.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Spring 2021 Financial System Survey" }, "FSS_2022SPRING": { "label": "Financial System Survey highlights—Spring 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2022SPRING", "description": "Financial System Survey highlights—Spring 2022" }, "FSS_2022SPRING_C1": { "label": "Short- and medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2022SPRING_C1", "description": "Note: Risk index weights: not at all likely: 0 points; slightly likely: 1 point; somewhat likely: 2 points; moderately likely: 3 points; extremely likely: 4 points. Risk index shown on right scale. This question was added to the survey in autumn 2021.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2022SPRING_C2": { "label": "Confidence in the Canadian financial system’s ability to withstand a large shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2022SPRING_C2", "description": "Note: Confidence index weights: not at all confident: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points; completely confident: 4 points. Confidence index shown on right scale. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2022SPRING_C3": { "label": "Top risks to your organization", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2022SPRING_C3", "description": "Note: Risk index weights: 1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2022SPRING_C4": { "label": "Monetary policy normalization scenario that would result in the most severe negative impact for your organization", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2022SPRING_C4", "description": "Note: “Others” includes credit rating agencies, credit unions, exchanges and clearing houses, finance/trust companies and public institutions. For the spring 2022 Financial System Survey, “banks” includes “broker-dealers.”\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2022SPRING_C5": { "label": "Expected change in market variables one quarter after unexpected monetary policy normalization scenarios", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2022SPRING_C5", "description": "" }, "FSS_2022SPRING_C5A": { "label": "Expected change in market variables one quarter after unexpected monetary policy normalization scenarios", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2022SPRING_C5A", "description": "" }, "FSS_2022SPRING_C6": { "label": "Expected change in strategy one quarter after an unexpected monetary policy normalization scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2022SPRING_C6", "description": "" }, "FSS_2023SPRING": { "label": "Financial system survey 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2023SPRING", "description": "Financial system survey 2023" }, "FSS_2023SPRING_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Short- and medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2023SPRING_C1", "description": "The risk index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all likely: 0 points; slightly likely: 1 point; somewhat likely: 2 points; moderately likely: 3 points; extremely likely: 4 points. The weights are the frequency of each response.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSS_2023SPRING_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Confidence in the Canadian financial system's ability to withstand a large shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2023SPRING_C2", "description": "The confidence index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all confident: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points; completely confident: 4 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSS_2023SPRING_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Top risks to your organization", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2023SPRING_C3", "description": "The risk index is a weighted average of the ranking of each risk category. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: 1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point. The weights are the frequency of each response.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSS_2023SPRING_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Share of respondents that use non-centrally cleared derivatives, by institution type", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2023SPRING_C4", "description": "“Others” includes credit rating agencies, credit unions, exchanges and clearing houses, finance or trust companies and public institutions. For the 2023 Financial System Survey, “banks” includes “broker-dealers.”\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSS_2023SPRING_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Share of respondents who report that their non-centrally cleared derivatives agreements require initial or variation margin", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2023SPRING_C5", "description": "Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2023SPRING_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Share of non-centrally cleared derivatives agreements for which each collateral type is eligible as margin", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2023SPRING_C6", "description": "The index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: all: 3 points; most: 2 points; some: 1 point; none: 0 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. The bottom axis displays the index levels converted back to the qualitative response options for improved clarity.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSS_2023SPRING_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Increases in margin requirements that would be met with each funding source", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2023SPRING_C7", "description": "The index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: all: 3 points; most: 2 points; some: 1 point; none: 0 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. We have combined responses for increases in initial and variation margin due to similarity among results. For improved comparability, we have also rescaled the blue bars in units of the yellow bars.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSS_2024": { "label": "FSS 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024", "description": "FSS 2024" }, "FSS_2024_C1": { "label": "Respondents that completed the 2024 Financial System Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024_C1", "description": "Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2024_C2": { "label": "Short- and medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024_C2", "description": "Note: The risk index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all likely: 0 points; slightly likely: 1 point; somewhat likely: 2 points; moderately likely: 3 points; extremely likely: 4 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. After the spring 2022 survey, the Bank of Canada reduced the frequency of the survey from twice to once per year.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSS_2024_C3": { "label": "Confidence in the financial system’s ability to withstand a severe shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024_C3", "description": "Note: The confidence index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all confident: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points; completely confident: 4 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After the spring 2022 survey, the Bank of Canada reduced the frequency of the survey from twice to once per year.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "FSS_2024_C4": { "label": "Top risks to organizations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024_C4", "description": "" }, "FSS_2024_C5": { "label": "Changes to asset allocation since monetary policy tightening began in 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024_C5", "description": "" }, "FSS_2024_C6": { "label": "Policy rate scenario that would have the most severe negative impact", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024_C6", "description": "" }, "FSS_2024_C7": { "label": "Expected near-term changes in market variables if broad market expectations shift to the higher-than-expected scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024_C7", "description": "" }, "FSS_2024_C8": { "label": "Intended near-term adjustments if respondents’ expectations shift to the higher-than-expected scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2024_C8", "description": "" }, "FSS_2025": { "label": "FSS 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025", "description": "FSS 2025" }, "FSS_2025_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Respondents that completed the 2025 Financial System Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025_C1", "description": "Note: Others includes exchanges and clearing houses, finance and trust companies and public institutions.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2025_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Short- and medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025_C2", "description": "Note: The risk index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all likely: 0 points; slightly likely: 1 point; somewhat likely: 2 points; moderately likely: 3 points; extremely likely: 4 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. After the spring 2022 survey, the Bank of Canada reduced the frequency of the survey from twice to once per year.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2025_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Confidence in the financial system's ability to withstand a severe shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025_C3", "description": "Note: The confidence index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all confident: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points; completely confident: 4 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After the spring 2022 survey, the Bank of Canada reduced the frequency of the survey from twice to once per year.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2025_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Top risks to organizations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025_C4", "description": "Note: The risk index is a weighted average of the ranking of each risk category. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: 1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point. The weights are the frequency of each response. After the spring 2022 survey, the Bank of Canada reduced the frequency of the survey from twice to once per year.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2025_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Risk scenarios that could result in a repricing in financial markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025_C5", "description": "Note: Others includes exchanges and clearing houses, finance/trust companies and public institutions.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2025_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Extent to which investors are compensated for risk exposures in different asset classes, given the potential for near-term risks to financial markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025_C6", "description": "Note: The index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all compensated: -3 points; slightly compensated: -2 point; somewhat compensated: -1 point; fully compensated: 0 points; overly compensated: 1 point. Respondents who report that an asset class is not applicable to their organization are not included in that asset class bucket or the index calculation.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2025_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Change in exposure to the following asset classes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025_C7", "description": "Note: The index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: decrease significantly: -2 points; decrease slightly: -1 point; no change: 0 points; increase slightly: 1 point; increase significantly: 2 points. Respondents who report that an asset class is not applicable to their organization are not included in that asset class or the index calculation.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2025_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Changes to geographical diversification", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2025_C8", "description": "Note: The index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: decrease significantly: -2 points; decrease slightly: -1 point; no change: 0 points; increase slightly: 1 point; increase significantly: 2 points. Respondents who report that an asset class is not applicable to their organization are not included in that asset class or the index calculation.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026": { "label": "FSS 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026", "description": "This article presents the key results from the 2026 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between February 23 and March 13. The survey included a special section on the use and risks of artificial intelligence (AI)." }, "FSS_2026_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Respondents that completed the 2026 Financial System Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C1", "description": "Note: Investment fund managers includes managers of mutual funds, hedge funds and alternative assets. Others includes exchanges and clearing houses, finance and trust companies, and public institutions.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Short- and medium-term risk of a shock that could impair the Canadian financial system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C2", "description": "Perceived likelihood of a shock, short and medium terms\n\nNote: The risk index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all likely: 0 points; slightly likely: 1 point; somewhat likely: 2 points; moderately likely: 3 points; extremely likely: 4 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. After the spring 2022 survey, the Bank of Canada reduced the frequency of the survey from twice to once per year.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Confidence in the financial system's ability to withstand a severe shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C3", "description": "Note: The confidence index is a weighted average of the ranking of each response. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: not at all confident: 0 points; not very confident: 1 point; fairly confident: 2 points; very confident: 3 points; completely confident: 4 points. The weights are the frequency of each response. There was no Financial System Survey in spring 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After the spring 2022 survey, the Bank of Canada reduced the frequency of the survey from twice to once per year.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Top risks to organizations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C4", "description": "Note: The risk index is a weighted average of the ranking of each risk category. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: 1st choice: 3 points; 2nd choice: 2 points; 3rd choice: 1 point. The weights are the frequency of each response. After the spring 2022 survey, the Bank of Canada reduced the frequency of the survey from twice to once per year.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: How respondents use artificial intelligence in their operations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C5", "description": "Note: The use index is a weighted average of the ranking of each use category. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: 1st choice: 5 points; 2nd choice: 4 points; 3rd choice: 3 points; 4th choice: 2 points; 5th choice: 1 point. The weights are the frequency of each response.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Business lines where organizations plan to start using artificial intelligence or change how it is used", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C6", "description": "Note: Others includes exchanges and clearing houses, finance and trust companies, and public institutions.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Top risks to business operations from using artificial intelligence", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C7", "description": "Note: The risk index is a weighted average of the ranking of each risk category. For the index, we assign different values to each response option: 1st choice: 5 points; 2nd choice: 4 points; 3rd choice: 3 points; 4th choice: 2 points; 5th choice: 1 point. The weights are the frequency of each response. Other was one of the multiple-choice options.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Challenges of managing risk to business operations from artificial intelligence", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C8", "description": "Note: AI is artificial intelligence.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "FSS_2026_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Risk to the Canadian financial system from the use of artificial intelligence over the next one to three years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FSS_2026_C9", "description": "Source: Bank of Canada" }, "FVI_BANKS_AQ": { "label": "Asset quality", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_BANKS_AQ", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_BANKS_CA": { "label": "Capital adequacy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_BANKS_CA", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_BANKS_CASH": { "label": "Liquidity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_BANKS_CASH", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_BANKS_PROFIT": { "label": "Profitability", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_BANKS_PROFIT", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_CHARACTERISTICS_MORTGAGE_ORIGINATIONS": { "label": "Characteristics of mortgage originations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_CHARACTERISTICS_MORTGAGE_ORIGINATIONS", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_CHARACTERISTICS_MORTGAGE_ORIGINATIONS_R2": { "label": "Characteristics of mortgage originations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_CHARACTERISTICS_MORTGAGE_ORIGINATIONS_R2", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_CHARACTERISTICS_MORTGAGE_ORIGINATION_ALL": { "label": "Characteristics of mortgage originations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_CHARACTERISTICS_MORTGAGE_ORIGINATION_ALL", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_CHARACTERISTICS_MORTGAGE_ORIG_WEEKLY": { "label": "Characteristics of mortgage originations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_CHARACTERISTICS_MORTGAGE_ORIG_WEEKLY", "description": "Note: A high-ratio mortgage is a mortgage with a down payment of less than 20% of the property’s purchase price, which results in a loan-to-value ratio above 80%.\nSources: Department of Finance Canada, brokers’ websites and Bank of Canada calculations." }, "FVI_FINANCIAL_MARKETS_MML": { "label": "Measures of market liquidity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_FINANCIAL_MARKETS_MML", "description": "Sources: Market Trade Reporting System, LSEG Datastream and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_FINANCIAL_MARKETS_TA": { "label": "Trading activity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_FINANCIAL_MARKETS_TA", "description": "Sources: Market Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_FINANCIAL_MARKETS_TP_GOC": { "label": "Estimates of the term premium on Government of Canada bonds (%), by tenor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_FINANCIAL_MARKETS_TP_GOC", "description": "Sources: Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_FINANCIAL_MARKETS_YV": { "label": "Yield volatility", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_FINANCIAL_MARKETS_YV", "description": "Sources: LSEG Datastream and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_HOUSEHOLD": { "label": "Reliance on and use of credit cards", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_HOUSEHOLD", "description": "Sources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_HOUSEHOLD_CREDIT_PERFORMANCE": { "label": "Household credit performance", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_HOUSEHOLD_CREDIT_PERFORMANCE", "description": "Sources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_HOUSE_FLIPPING_ACTIVITY": { "label": "House-flipping activity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_HOUSE_FLIPPING_ACTIVITY", "description": "Sources: Teranet, National Bank and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_HOUSE_PRICE_EXPECTATIONS_CSCE": { "label": "House price expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_HOUSE_PRICE_EXPECTATIONS_CSCE", "description": "Sources: Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_LOAN_TO_INCOME_RATIO": { "label": "Loan-to-income ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_LOAN_TO_INCOME_RATIO", "description": "Note: LTI is loan to income.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_LOAN_TO_INCOME_RATIO_ALL": { "label": "Loan-to-income ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_LOAN_TO_INCOME_RATIO_ALL", "description": "Note: LTI is loan to income.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_LOAN_TO_INCOME_RATIO_R2": { "label": "Loan-to-income ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_LOAN_TO_INCOME_RATIO_R2", "description": "Note: LTI is loan to income.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_LOAN_TO_VALUE_RATIO": { "label": "Loan-to-value ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_LOAN_TO_VALUE_RATIO", "description": "Note: LTV is loan to value.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_LOAN_TO_VALUE_RATIO_ALL": { "label": "Loan-to-value ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_LOAN_TO_VALUE_RATIO_ALL", "description": "Note: LTV is loan to value.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_LOAN_TO_VALUE_RATIO_R2": { "label": "Loan-to-value ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_LOAN_TO_VALUE_RATIO_R2", "description": "Note: LTV is loan to value.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO": { "label": "Mortgage debt service ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO", "description": "Note: DSR is debt service ratio.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_ALL": { "label": "Mortgage debt service ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_ALL", "description": "Note: DSR is debt service ratio.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_R2": { "label": "Mortgage debt service ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_MORTGAGE_DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO_R2", "description": "Note: DSR is debt service ratio.\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion, Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_NFB_CASH": { "label": "Liquidity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_NFB_CASH", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_NFB_DEBT": { "label": "Leverage", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_NFB_DEBT", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_NFB_GIL_RATIO": { "label": "Gross impaired loan ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_NFB_GIL_RATIO", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_NFB_ICR": { "label": "Debt serviceability", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_NFB_ICR", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_NFB_INSOLVENCY": { "label": "Number of insolvency filings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_NFB_INSOLVENCY", "description": "Sources: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_NFB_PROFIT": { "label": "Profitability", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_NFB_PROFIT", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_OVERALL_FINANCIAL_SYSTEM": { "label": "Financial stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_OVERALL_FINANCIAL_SYSTEM", "description": "Sources: LSEG Datastream, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_TYPES_OF_MORTGAGED_HOMEBUYERS": { "label": "Types of mortgaged homebuyers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_TYPES_OF_MORTGAGED_HOMEBUYERS", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_TYPES_OF_MORTGAGED_HOMEBUYERS_ALL": { "label": "Types of mortgaged homebuyers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_TYPES_OF_MORTGAGED_HOMEBUYERS_ALL", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FVI_TYPES_OF_MORTGAGED_HOMEBUYERS_R2": { "label": "Types of mortgaged homebuyers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FVI_TYPES_OF_MORTGAGED_HOMEBUYERS_R2", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks, TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "FX_RATES_ANNUAL": { "label": "Annual exchange rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FX_RATES_ANNUAL", "description": "Annual average exchange rates for various foreign currencies currently or historically published by the Bank of Canada, representing the value of one unit of foreign currency expressed in Canadian dollars. These rates are typically published on the last business day of each year by 12:30 (ET). All Bank of Canada exchange rates are indicative rates only, obtained from averages of aggregated price quotes from financial institutions." }, "FX_RATES_DAILY": { "label": "Daily exchange rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FX_RATES_DAILY", "description": "Daily average exchange rates for various foreign currencies currently or historically published by the Bank of Canada, representing the value of one unit of foreign currency expressed in Canadian dollars. These rates are typically published once each business day by 16:30 (ET). All Bank of Canada exchange rates are indicative rates only, obtained from averages of aggregated price quotes from financial institutions." }, "FX_RATES_MONTHLY": { "label": "Monthly exchange rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FX_RATES_MONTHLY", "description": "Monthly average exchange rates for various foreign currencies currently or historically published by the Bank of Canada, representing the value of one unit of foreign currency expressed in Canadian dollars. These rates are typically published on the last business day of each month by 16:30 (ET); if the last business day of the month is a Bank of Canada holiday, the monthly average exchange rates are typically published on the first business day of the following month by 16:30 (ET). All Bank of Canada exchange rates are indicative rates only, obtained from averages of aggregated price quotes from financial institutions." }, "FX_RATES_RECIPROCAL": { "label": "Daily reciprocal exchange rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/FX_RATES_RECIPROCAL", "description": "Daily average reciprocal exchange rates for various foreign currencies currently or historically published by the Bank of Canada, representing the value of one Canadian dollar expressed in units of foreign currency. These rates are typically published once each business day by 16:30 (ET). All Bank of Canada exchange rates are indicative rates only, obtained from averages of aggregated price quotes from financial institutions." }, "G4_MONTHLY": { "label": "Government of Canada direct securities and loans: Distribution of holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/G4_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "G4_WEEKLY": { "label": "Government of Canada direct securities and loans: Distribution of holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/G4_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "G6_MONTHLY": { "label": "Government of Canada direct securities and loans: Classified by remaining term to maturity and type of asset", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/G6_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "G7_MONTHLY": { "label": "Government of Canada direct securities and loans: Holdings of general public classified by remaining term to maturity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/G7_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "GBPP": { "label": "Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/GBPP", "description": "Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program" }, "GBPP_RESULTS": { "label": "Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/GBPP_RESULTS", "description": "Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program" }, "GOCCADDEP_WEEKLY": { "label": "Government of Canada Canadian Dollar Deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/GOCCADDEP_WEEKLY", "description": "Weekly Wednesday, Millions of dollars" }, "GOC_OUTSTANDING": { "label": "Government of Canada Treasury Bills and Domestic Marketable Bonds Outstanding", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/GOC_OUTSTANDING", "description": "Government of Canada Treasury Bills and Domestic Marketable Bonds Outstanding" }, "GOC_OUTSTANDING_2025": { "label": "Government of Canada Treasury Bills and Domestic Marketable Bonds Outstanding 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/GOC_OUTSTANDING_2025", "description": "Government of Canada Treasury Bills and Domestic Marketable Bonds Outstanding 2025" }, "GREEN_BOND": { "label": "Green Bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/GREEN_BOND", "description": "Green Bonds" }, "HR_EDI_2027": { "label": "Our workforce", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027", "description": "Our workforce" }, "HR_EDI_2027_ECOFSS_A": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_ECOFSS_A", "description": "Economist and financial sector specialist representation\n\nRepresentation data includes individual contributors in economist and financial sector specialist roles. Leadership roles are excluded." }, "HR_EDI_2027_ECOFSS_B": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_ECOFSS_B", "description": "Economist and financial sector specialist representation\n\nRepresentation data includes individual contributors in economist and financial sector specialist roles. Leadership roles are excluded." }, "HR_EDI_2027_ECOFSS_C": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_ECOFSS_C", "description": "Economist and financial sector specialist representation\n\nRepresentation data includes individual contributors in economist and financial sector specialist roles. Leadership roles are excluded." }, "HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_A": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_A", "description": "All employees\n\nNo goals have been set for those who identify as francophone or 2SLGBTQ+ due to the absence of reliable labour market data for these groups." }, "HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_B": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_B", "description": "All employees\n\nNo goals have been set for those who identify as francophone or 2SLGBTQ+ due to the absence of reliable labour market data for these groups." }, "HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_C": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_C", "description": "All employees\n\nNo goals have been set for those who identify as francophone or 2SLGBTQ+ due to the absence of reliable labour market data for these groups." }, "HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_D": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_D", "description": "All employees\n\nNo goals have been set for those who identify as francophone or 2SLGBTQ+ due to the absence of reliable labour market data for these groups." }, "HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_E": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_E", "description": "All employees\n\nNo goals have been set for those who identify as francophone or 2SLGBTQ+ due to the absence of reliable labour market data for these groups." }, "HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_F": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_OVERALL_F", "description": "All employees\n\nNo goals have been set for those who identify as francophone or 2SLGBTQ+ due to the absence of reliable labour market data for these groups." }, "HR_EDI_2027_SO_A": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_SO_A", "description": "Senior officer representation" }, "HR_EDI_2027_SO_B": { "label": "Workforce representation at the Bank by equity-seeking group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/HR_EDI_2027_SO_B", "description": "Senior officer representation" }, "illustrative_rate_and_corra": { "label": "Illustrative historical time series and actual CORRA", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/illustrative_rate_and_corra", "description": "The illustrative historical time series for CORRA as calculated using the new methodology, along with the actual CORRA rate as published by Refinitiv Benchmark Services (UK) Limited. Disclaimer: The illustrative series is provided for informational purposes to support research and comparative analysis and does not replace previous CORRA publications; it is based on data reported at that time." }, "INDINF_BOS_Q": { "label": "Two-year Inflation Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_BOS_Q", "description": "Source: Business Outlook Survey, Over the next two years, what do you expect the annual rate of inflation to be, based on the consumer price index? (% of firms)." }, "INDINF_CPI": { "label": "Inflation, year-over-year percentage change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_CPI", "description": "The year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This data measures the rate of inflation based on changes in the consumer price index over a twelve-month period." }, "INDINF_CPI_TABLE_MONTHLY": { "label": "Inflation, year-over-year percentage change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_CPI_TABLE_MONTHLY", "description": "The year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as published monthly." }, "INDINF_CPI_TABLE_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Inflation, year-over-year percentage change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_CPI_TABLE_QUARTERLY", "description": "The year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as published quarterly." }, "INDINF_EXPECTATIONS": { "label": "Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_EXPECTATIONS", "description": "Expectations" }, "INDINF_EXPECTATIONS_TABLE_MONTHLY": { "label": "Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_EXPECTATIONS_TABLE_MONTHLY", "description": "Expectations" }, "INDINF_EXPECTATIONS_TABLE_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_EXPECTATIONS_TABLE_QUARTERLY", "description": "Expectations" }, "INDINF_LABOUR": { "label": "Labour market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_LABOUR", "description": "Labour market" }, "INDINF_LABOUR_TABLE_MONTHLY": { "label": "Labour market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_LABOUR_TABLE_MONTHLY", "description": "Labour market" }, "INDINF_LABOUR_TABLE_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Labour market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_LABOUR_TABLE_QUARTERLY", "description": "Labour market" }, "INDINF_PRODUCT": { "label": "Product market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_PRODUCT", "description": "Product market data" }, "INDINF_PRODUCT_TABLE_MONTHLY": { "label": "Product market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_PRODUCT_TABLE_MONTHLY", "description": "Product market" }, "INDINF_PRODUCT_TABLE_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Product market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_PRODUCT_TABLE_QUARTERLY", "description": "Product market" }, "INDINF_REAL_ESTATE": { "label": "House prices and affordability", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_REAL_ESTATE", "description": "The new housing price index and the housing affordability index" }, "INDINF_REAL_ESTATE_TABLE_MONTHLY": { "label": "House prices and affordability", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_REAL_ESTATE_TABLE_MONTHLY", "description": "House prices and affordability" }, "INDINF_REAL_ESTATE_TABLE_QUARTERLY": { "label": "House prices and affordability", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_REAL_ESTATE_TABLE_QUARTERLY", "description": "House prices and affordability" }, "INDINF_WAGES": { "label": "Wages and Costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_WAGES", "description": " Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data" }, "INDINF_WAGES_MONTHLY": { "label": "Wages and Costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_WAGES_MONTHLY", "description": " Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data" }, "INDINF_WAGES_TABLE_MONTHLY": { "label": "Wages and Costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_WAGES_TABLE_MONTHLY", "description": "Monthly data" }, "INDINF_WAGES_TABLE_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Wages and Costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/INDINF_WAGES_TABLE_QUARTERLY", "description": " Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data" }, "J2_HELOCS_UTILIZATION": { "label": "HELOCs and HELOC components of combined mortgage-HELOC loan plans utilization rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/J2_HELOCS_UTILIZATION", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "J2_HELOC_MORTGAGE_COMBINED": { "label": "Combined mortgage-HELOC loan plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/J2_HELOC_MORTGAGE_COMBINED", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "J2_HELOC_OUTSIDE_OF_COMBINED": { "label": "HELOCs outside of combined loan plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/J2_HELOC_OUTSIDE_OF_COMBINED", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "J2_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Chartered banks: Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/J2_QUARTERLY", "description": "Quarter-end data on chartered bank Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) and related products for residential secured lending whose properties are located in Canada (excluding business loans)." }, "J2_RESIDENTIAL_SECURED_LENDING": { "label": "Residential secured lending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/J2_RESIDENTIAL_SECURED_LENDING", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "K12_CANADIAN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Classification of deposit liabilities - Canadian dollar deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K12_CANADIAN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "K12_FOREIGN": { "label": "Chartered banks: Classification of deposit liabilities - Foreign currency deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K12_FOREIGN", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "K12_GRAPH": { "label": "Chartered banks: Classification of deposit liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K12_GRAPH", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "K12_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Chartered banks: Classification of deposit liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K12_QUARTERLY", "description": "Quarter-end, Millions of dollars" }, "K1_ANNUAL": { "label": "Bank of Canada note liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K1_ANNUAL", "description": "As at 31 December, Thousands of dollars" }, "K8_CANADIAN": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Canadian dollars", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_CANADIAN", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)\n" }, "K8_FC_EURO": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Foreign currencies - Euro", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_FC_EURO", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "K8_FC_JAPAN": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Foreign currencies - Japanese yen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_FC_JAPAN", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "K8_FC_OTHER": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Foreign currencies - Other", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_FC_OTHER", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "K8_FC_POUND": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Foreign currencies - Pound sterling", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_FC_POUND", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "K8_FC_SWISS": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Foreign currencies - Swiss francs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_FC_SWISS", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "K8_FC_USD": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Foreign currencies - United States dollars", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_FC_USD", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "K8_FOREIGN": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Foreign currencies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_FOREIGN", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "K8_MONTHLY": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "K8_TOTAL": { "label": "Government of Canada bonds outstanding by currency of payments - Total currencies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K8_TOTAL", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)\n" }, "K9_MONTHLY": { "label": "Historical net new issues of securities by corporations and federal government enterprises: Industrial classification", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/K9_MONTHLY", "description": "Month-end, Millions of dollars (par value)" }, "LEGACY_ANNUAL_RATES": { "label": "Legacy Annual Average Rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/LEGACY_ANNUAL_RATES", "description": "The legacy exchange rates were last updated 28 April 2017 and will not be updated in future. Exchange rates are expressed as 1 unit of the foreign currency converted into Canadian dollars. All Bank of Canada exchange rates are indicative rates only." }, "LEGACY_ClOSING_RATES": { "label": "Legacy Closing Rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/LEGACY_ClOSING_RATES", "description": "The legacy exchange rates were last updated 28 April 2017 and will not be updated in future. Exchange rates are expressed as 1 unit of the foreign currency converted into Canadian dollars. All Bank of Canada exchange rates are indicative rates only." }, "LEGACY_MONTHLY_RATES": { "label": "Legacy Monthly Average Rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/LEGACY_MONTHLY_RATES", "description": "The legacy exchange rates were last updated 28 April 2017 and will not be updated in future. Exchange rates are expressed as 1 unit of the foreign currency converted into Canadian dollars. All Bank of Canada exchange rates are indicative rates only." }, "LEGACY_NOON_RATES": { "label": "Legacy Noon Rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/LEGACY_NOON_RATES", "description": "The legacy exchange rates were last updated 28 April 2017 and will not be updated in future. Exchange rates are expressed as 1 unit of the foreign currency converted into Canadian dollars. All Bank of Canada exchange rates are indicative rates only." }, "MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY": { "label": "Merchant Acceptance Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY", "description": "Merchant Acceptance Survey" }, "MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_FUTURE_CASHLESS": { "label": "Merchants planning for a future with cash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_FUTURE_CASHLESS", "description": "Merchants planning for a future with cash" }, "MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_INNOVATION": { "label": "Merchant acceptance of payment innovations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_INNOVATION", "description": "Merchant acceptance of payment innovations" }, "MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_METHOD": { "label": "Merchant acceptance of common payment methods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_METHOD", "description": "Merchant acceptance of common payment methods" }, "MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_METHOD_BY_INDUSTRY": { "label": "Merchant acceptance of common payment methods – by industry", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_METHOD_BY_INDUSTRY", "description": "Merchant acceptance of common payment methods – by industry" }, "MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_METHOD_BY_REGION": { "label": "Merchant acceptance of common payment methods – by region", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MERCHANT_ACCEPTANCE_SURVEY_METHOD_BY_REGION", "description": "Merchant acceptance of common payment methods – by region" }, "METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_CONSUMER_PLANS": { "label": "Canadians see a future with cash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_CONSUMER_PLANS", "description": "Canadians see a future with cash" }, "METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_SURVEY": { "label": "Methods-of-Payment Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_SURVEY", "description": "Methods-of-Payment Survey" }, "METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_SURVEY_CONSUMER_FUTURE": { "label": "Consumers see a future with cash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_SURVEY_CONSUMER_FUTURE", "description": "Consumers see a future with cash" }, "METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_SURVEY_VALUE_SHARES": { "label": "Payment shares over time – value shares", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_SURVEY_VALUE_SHARES", "description": "Payment shares over time – value shares" }, "METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_SURVEY_VOLUME_SHARES": { "label": "Payment shares over time – volume shares", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/METHODS_OF_PAYMENT_SURVEY_VOLUME_SHARES", "description": "Payment shares over time – volume shares" }, "MONETARY_POLICY_IMPLEMENTATION": { "label": "Monetary policy implementation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MONETARY_POLICY_IMPLEMENTATION", "description": " " }, "MONEY_MARKET": { "label": "Money market yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MONEY_MARKET", "description": "Data related to the market in which short-term capital is raised, invested, and traded by using financial instruments such as treasury bills." }, "MPR_2024M04_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2024M04 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M04_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2024M04 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2024M04_GEG": { "label": "2024M04 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M04_GEG", "description": "2024M04 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2024M04_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2024M04 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M04_SQP_CAN", "description": "2024M04 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2024M07": { "label": "Monetary Policy Report—July 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07", "description": "Monetary policy is working to reduce price pressures in the Canadian economy. Core inflation is expected to ease gradually, while the path of CPI inflation will be bumpy." }, "MPR_2024M07_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2024M07 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2024M07 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2024M07_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: CPI inflation is forecast to return to target in the second half of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C1", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nNote: Core inflation is the average of CPI-trim and CPI-median.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2024M07_C10": { "label": "Chart 10: CPI inflation is expected to fall below 2.5% over the near term", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C10", "description": "Contribution to CPI inflation, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2024M07_C12A": { "label": "Chart 12: Inflation is still above central bank targets - a. Total inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C12A", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Inflation rate calculations are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area, the personal consumption expenditures price index for the United States and the consumer price index for Canada.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C12B": { "label": "Chart 12: Inflation is still above central bank targets - b. Inflation, excluding food and energy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C12B", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Inflation rate calculations are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area, the personal consumption expenditures price index for the United States and the consumer price index for Canada.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C13": { "label": "Chart 13: Oil prices are roughly unchanged from the April Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C13", "description": "Daily data\n\nSources: Kalibrate Canada Inc., NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2024M07_C14A": { "label": "Chart 14: Since the April Report, global financial conditions have eased, while the Canadian dollar has remained stable - a. Two-year government bond yield", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C14A", "description": "Daily data\n\nNote: CEER is the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate index—a weighted average of bilateral exchange rates for the Canadian dollar against the currencies of Canada’s major trading partners.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C14B": { "label": "Chart 14: Since the April Report, global financial conditions have eased, while the Canadian dollar has remained stable - b. Canadian exchange rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C14B", "description": "daily data\n\nNote: CEER is the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate index—a weighted average of bilateral exchange rates for the Canadian dollar against the currencies of Canada’s major trading partners.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C17": { "label": "Chart 17: Net flows of non-permanent residents have been revised up over the projection", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C17", "description": "January 1 to December 31, annual data\n\nSources: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada; Statistics Canada; and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C18": { "label": "Chart 18: Food price inflation has been falling in line with input costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C18", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Food input costs are estimated as a weighted average of the costs incurred as part of the food supply chain, including imports, production, transportation and labour.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C19": { "label": "Chart 19: Inflation in services excluding shelter is lower in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C19", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Inflation rate calculations are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area and the consumer price index for Canada and the United States.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2024M07_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Real GDP is expected to expand by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C2", "description": "Contribution to real GDP growth, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2024M07_C20": { "label": "Chart 20: Wage growth is correlated with inflation in some services prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C20", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, demeaned and standardized monthly data\n\nNote: LFS is the Labour Force Survey. Series are standardized by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C21": { "label": "Chart 21: Newcomers are boosting Canada’s population growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C21", "description": "Contribution to annual population changes, quarterly data\n\nNote: Non-permanent residents includes temporary foreign workers, international students and asylum seekers. Other includes minor flows such as emigrants and returning emigrants.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C22": { "label": "Chart 22: Newcomers are more likely than others to be unemployed across all working-age groups", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C22", "description": "Unemployment rate, 2024Q2 average, seasonally adjusted quarterly data\n\nNote: Newcomers are non-permanent residents and immigrants who landed within the past five years.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C23": { "label": "Chart 23: Home ownership rates among immigrants by years since arrival", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C23", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nNote: This chart shows the percentage of respondents to the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations reporting they own a home by the number of years since their arrival in Canada. Results include data from the third quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2024. Non-permanent residents are excluded.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2024M07_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Growth of consumption per person continues to be weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C3", "description": "Contribution to real consumption per capita growth (aged 15 and older), quarterly data\n\nNote: Data for the population aged 15 and older are from Statistics Canada's quarterly estimates of population. For more information about what is included in the consumption categories, see T. Chernis and C. Luu, “Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2018-32 (October 2018).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Capacity pressures for businesses have eased since 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C4", "description": "Percentage of respondents, Business Outlook Survey, quarterly data\n\nNote: This chart shows the percentage of respondents to the Business Outlook Survey reporting some or significant difficulty meeting an unexpected increase in demand or sales\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2024M07_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: The job finding rate has slowed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C5", "description": "Seasonally adjusted quarterly data\n\nNote: Job finding rate from unemployment is calculated by dividing the number of workers who transitioned from unemployment to employment by the total number of unemployed workers in the previous month.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Wage growth remains elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C6", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: LFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. The LFS fixed-weight measure is constructed using 2019 employment weights.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Inflation in services prices is still more broad-based than normal", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C7", "description": "Share of CPI components with price growth above 3% over the past 12 months, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Most measures of near-term inflation expectations have continued to come down", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C8", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 13 to 24 months from now.\n\nSources: Consensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M07_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Growth of GDP per capita is expected to strengthen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_C9", "description": "Contribution to real GDP growth, quarterly data\n\nNote: Data for the population aged 15 and older are from Statistics Canada’s quarterly estimates of population.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2024M07_F1": { "label": "Figure 1: CPI inflation has eased, although some components are persistently high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_F1", "description": "" }, "MPR_2024M07_GEG": { "label": "2024M07 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_GEG", "description": "2024M07 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2024M07_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2024M07 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_SQP_CAN", "description": "2024M07 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2024M07_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M07_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2024M10": { "label": "Monetary Policy Report—October 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10", "description": "Monetary policy has worked to reduce price pressures in the Canadian economy. Inflation is now around 2% and is expected to remain near the middle of the Bank of Canada’s control range of 1% to 3% over the projection." }, "MPR_2024M10_2006": { "label": "Unemployment has risen mainly because jobs are hard to find, but layoffs remain low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_2006", "description": "Change in unemployment rate since January 2008, by flows from 2008 to present, monthly data\n\nOther refers to all other instances where people can flow in and out of unemployment. For example, this category includes movements of people not in the labour force into unemployment.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2024M10 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2024M10 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2024M10_CONSUM_PERCAP": { "label": "Consumer spending per person continues to decline", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_CONSUM_PERCAP", "description": "Contribution to growth in real consumption per capita (aged 15 and older), quarterly data\n\nData for the population aged 15 and older are from Statistics Canada’s quarterly population estimates. For more information about what is included in the consumption categories, see T. Chernis and C. Luu, “Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2018-¬32 (October 2018).\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2024M10_CPI_CORE": { "label": "Core inflation is projected to gradually decline to 2%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_CPI_CORE", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nCore inflation is the average of CPI-trim and CPI-median.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2024M10_CPI_YOY": { "label": "Inflation is now close to 2%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_CPI_YOY", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_F1": { "label": "Inflation in many CPI components is running below historical averages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_F1", "description": "The heatmap shows the distance of each CPI component’s year-over-year inflation rate from its historical average. The colour is white when a component’s inflation rate is close to its average and is a varying shade of red (blue) when the rate is above (below) the average. Because the historical range of inflation varies widely across CPI components, each inflation rate plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996–2019, except for Regulation-affected services and Other services, where available data begin in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Note that Regulation-affected services includes prices that are affected by government regulations either directly (e.g., child care services) or indirectly (e.g., telephone services). Values in parentheses are CPI weights (in percent). Due to rounding, weights within categories may not sum to their respective totals.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_FSI": { "label": "Exports have emerged as a source of growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_FSI", "description": "Balance of opinion, Business Outlook Survey, quarterly data\n\nNote: Balance of opinion is the percentage of businesses reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated when asked how their very recent indicators of future sales have changed compared with their indicators 12 months ago.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2024M10_GDP": { "label": "Real GDP growth is estimated to be around 1½% in the third quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_GDP", "description": "Contribution to real GDP growth, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2024M10_GDP_GROWTH": { "label": "Growth of GDP per capita is expected to pick up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_GDP_GROWTH", "description": "Contribution to real GDP growth, quarterly data\n\nNote: Data for the population aged 15 and older are from Statistics Canada’s quarterly population estimates.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2024M10_GEG": { "label": "2024M10 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_GEG", "description": "2024M10 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2024M10_GLOBAL_INFLATION_A": { "label": "Inflation is near target - a. Total inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_GLOBAL_INFLATION_A", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Inflation rate calculations are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area, the personal consumption expenditures price index for the United States and the consumer price index for Canada.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_GLOBAL_INFLATION_B": { "label": "Inflation is near target - b. Inflation, excluding food and energy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_GLOBAL_INFLATION_B", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Inflation rate calculations are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area, the personal consumption expenditures price index for the United States and the consumer price index for Canada.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_INFL_CTG": { "label": "Despite some bumpiness in the near term, CPI inflation is expected to remain close to the 2% target", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_INFL_CTG", "description": "Contribution to CPI inflation, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2024M10_INFL_EXP_A": { "label": "Most measures of near-term inflation expectations have continued to fall - a. Businesses", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_INFL_EXP_A", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 13 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP." }, "MPR_2024M10_INFL_EXP_B": { "label": "Most measures of near-term inflation expectations have continued to fall - b. Consumers and professional forecasters", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_INFL_EXP_B", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 13 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP." }, "MPR_2024M10_INVEST": { "label": "Business investment and sentiment remain weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_INVEST", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nNote: Data on sentiment are from the Business Leaders’ Pulse (BLP). Business sentiment reflects the percentage of businesses reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinions is -200% to 200%. BLP data is presented as a quarterly average and not monthly observations.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2024M10_LF_EMP": { "label": "Labour force growth continues to outpace employment growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_LF_EMP", "description": "3-month moving average annualized growth, monthly data\n\nData on sentiment are from the Business Leaders’ Pulse (BLP). Business sentiment reflects the percentage of businesses reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinions is -200% to 200%. BLP data are presented as a quarterly average and not monthly observations.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_LF_N": { "label": "The share of newcomers in the labour force has risen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_LF_N", "description": "3-month moving average, monthly data\n\nNote: Newcomers are permanent residents and naturalized citizens who have arrived within the last five years as well as non-permanent residents.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_LS": { "label": "Few businesses are reporting labour challenges", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_LS", "description": "Percentage of respondents, Business Outlook Survey (BOS), quarterly data\n\nNote: The percentage of respondents to the BOS reporting that their ability to meet demand is restricted by labour shortages and the percentage reporting that the inability to find suitable labour is the most important obstacle to meet demand.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2024M10_OIL_PRICE": { "label": "Oil prices have declined since the July Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_OIL_PRICE", "description": "Daily data\n\nSources: Kalibrate Canada Inc., NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2024M10_SOV_BOND_YIELDS": { "label": "Most global sovereign bond yields have declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_SOV_BOND_YIELDS", "description": "Change in government bond yields since July 24, 2024\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "MPR_2024M10_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2024M10 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_SQP_CAN", "description": "2024M10 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2024M10_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2024M10_STICKY": { "label": "Inflation for prices that adjust more often is low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_STICKY", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Inflation in prices that adjust more often and inflation in prices that adjust less often do not include shelter services prices.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_US_GROWTH_WEALTH": { "label": "US growth is strong", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_US_GROWTH_WEALTH", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year percentage change in real GDP, seasonally adjusted, quarterly data" }, "MPR_2024M10_US_PCE_DECOMP_A": { "label": "Inflation in services prices remains above pre-pandemic levels - a. US inflation components", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_US_PCE_DECOMP_A", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Data on inflation are based on the personal consumption expenditures price index.\n\nSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_US_PCE_DECOMP_B": { "label": "Inflation in services prices remains above pre-pandemic levels - b. Contribution to US inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_US_PCE_DECOMP_B", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Data on inflation are based on the personal consumption expenditures price index.\n\nSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_WAGES": { "label": "Wage growth remains elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_WAGES", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nLFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. LFS, microdata measures wage growth using LFS microdata to abstract from changes in worker characteristics, extracting a quality-adjusted price for labour. For more details, see F. Bounajm, T. Devakos and G. Galassi,“ Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2024¬-23 (October‾024).\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2024M10_WAGE_GROWTH": { "label": "Businesses expect wage growth to moderate gradually", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_WAGE_GROWTH", "description": "Business Outlook Survey (BOS) and Business Leaders’ Pulse (BLP), quarterly data\n\nAverage expected wage increase is what businesses expect their wage increase to be, on average, 12 months from now. This question was not asked in any month during the second quarter of 2022.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "MPR_2024M10_YOUTH": { "label": "The increase in the unemployment rate is concentrated among newcomers and youth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2024M10_YOUTH", "description": "Unemployment rates, three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNewcomers are permanent residents and naturalized citizens who have arrived within the last five years as well as non-permanent residents.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01": { "label": "Monetary Policy Report—January 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01", "description": "Economic growth has ticked up in Canada, boosted by past cuts in interest rates. In the absence of new tariffs, growth is forecast to strengthen, and inflation remains close to 2%. But the threat of new tariffs is causing major uncertainty." }, "MPR_2025M01_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2025M01 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2025M01 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2025M01_BIN": { "label": "Business investment remains subdued", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_BIN", "description": "Index: 2022Q1 = 100, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_BOND_YIELDS_A": { "label": "US bond yields have risen whereas Canadian bond yields have modestly declined since the October Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_BOND_YIELDS_A", "description": "a. 2-year government bond yield, daily data\n\nUS Treasury via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2025M01_BOND_YIELDS_B": { "label": "US bond yields have risen whereas Canadian bond yields have modestly declined since the October Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_BOND_YIELDS_B", "description": "b. 10-year government bond yields, daily data\n\nUS Treasury via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2025M01_CEER": { "label": "The Canadian dollar has depreciated against the US dollar but has remained more stable relative to other currencies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_CEER", "description": "Canadian exchange rate and indexes: January 1, 2024 = 100, daily data\n\nBank of Canada" }, "MPR_2025M01_CONSUM_PERCAP": { "label": "Growth in consumer spending per person picked up in the second half of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_CONSUM_PERCAP", "description": "Contributions to growth in real consumption per person (aged 15 and older), quarterly data\n\nData for the population aged 15 and older are from Statistics Canada’s quarterly population estimates. For more information about what is included in the consumption categories, see T. Chernis and C. Luu, “Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2018‑32 (October 2018).\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M01_CPI_FORECAST": { "label": "CPI inflation is projected to remain close to 2%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_CPI_FORECAST", "description": "Contributions to CPI inflation, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M01_CPI_YOY": { "label": "Inflation has remained close to 2% since August 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_CPI_YOY", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_DISCS": { "label": "Consumers plan to increase their spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_DISCS", "description": "Balance of opinion, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE), quarterly data\n\nBalance of opinion is the percentage of respondents expecting their spending to increase minus the percentage expecting their spending to decrease. Responses of decrease significantly and increase significantly are given twice the weight of responses of decrease slightly and increase slightly. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "MPR_2025M01_GDP": { "label": "GDP growth is estimated to be around 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_GDP", "description": "Contributions to real GDP growth, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M01_GDP_GROWTH": { "label": "Growth of GDP per person is expected to pick up in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_GDP_GROWTH", "description": "Contributions to growth in real GDP per person (aged 15 and older), quarterly data\n\nData for the population aged 15 and older are from Statistics Canada’s quarterly population estimates.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M01_GEG": { "label": "2025M01 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_GEG", "description": "2025M01 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2025M01_GLOBAL_INFLATION_A": { "label": "Total inflation is near target, but inflation excluding food and energy remains elevated in many major economies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_GLOBAL_INFLATION_A", "description": "a. Total inflation\n\nInflation rate calculations are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area, the personal consumption expenditures price index for the United States and the consumer price index for Canada.\n\nStatistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_GLOBAL_INFLATION_B": { "label": "Total inflation is near target, but inflation excluding food and energy remains elevated in many major economies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_GLOBAL_INFLATION_B", "description": "b. Inflation excluding food and energy\n\nInflation rate calculations are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area, the personal consumption expenditures price index for the United States and the consumer price index for Canada.\n\nStatistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_HEATMAP": { "label": "Inflation in many CPI components continues to run below historical averages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_HEATMAP", "description": "The heatmap shows the distance of each CPI component’s year-over-year inflation rate from its historical average. The colour is white when a component’s inflation rate is close to its average and is a varying shade of red (blue) when the rate is above (below) the average. Because the historical range of inflation varies widely across CPI components, each inflation rate plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996–2019, except for Regulation-affected services and Other services, where available data begin in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Note that Regulation-affected services includes prices that are affected by government regulations either directly (e.g., child care services) or indirectly (e.g., telephone services). Values in parentheses are CPI weights (in percent). Due to rounding, weights within categories may not sum to their respective totals.\nThe components include the temporary GST/HST holiday (December 14, 2024, to February 15, 2025). This tax change impacts a wide range of goods and services, particularly semi-durable goods and food services.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_HOUSE": { "label": "Growth in residential investment is expected to strengthen in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_HOUSE", "description": "Year-over-year growth, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M01_IF_C1": { "label": "Since October, uncertainty has increased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_IF_C1", "description": "Daily data\n\nA higher degree of option-implied volatility suggests greater uncertainty around the future value of the Canadian-US exchange rate.\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P." }, "MPR_2025M01_IF_C2": { "label": "Options and futures markets show increased concerns of future depreciation of the Canadian dollar", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_IF_C2", "description": "Weekly data\n\nA negative (short) position will earn a profit if the value of the Canadian dollar depreciates over the life of the futures contract. A negative skew indicates a higher cost of insuring against a depreciation of the Canadian dollar, relative to the cost of insuring against an appreciation." }, "MPR_2025M01_IF_C3": { "label": "The Canadian dollar depreciated mainly due to an increased foreign exchange rate risk premium", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_IF_C3", "description": "Decomposition of cumulative change in model components since October 2024, daily data\n\nFeunou, Fontaine and Krohn (2022)" }, "MPR_2025M01_IF_C4": { "label": "Depreciation against the US dollar was broad-based", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_IF_C4", "description": "Exchange rate against US dollar" }, "MPR_2025M01_INFL_CTG": { "label": "The GST/HST holiday is adding volatility to near-term inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_INFL_CTG", "description": "Contributions to CPI inflation, monthly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M01_INFL_EXP_A": { "label": "Inflation expectations have largely returned to normal - Quarterly and monthly data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_INFL_EXP_A", "description": "a. Businesses\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 13 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nConsensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_INFL_EXP_B": { "label": "Inflation expectations have largely returned to normal - Quarterly and monthly data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_INFL_EXP_B", "description": "b. Consumers and professional forecasters\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 13 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nConsensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_LF_EMP": { "label": "Employment growth has picked up, and population growth continues to weaken", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_LF_EMP", "description": "3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nEmployment growth needed to keep the employment rate constant is calculated by multiplying the net monthly change in the size of the working-age population in the Labour Force Survey by the previous month’s employment rate.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_OIL_PRICE": { "label": "Oil prices have risen since the October Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_OIL_PRICE", "description": "Daily data\n\nKalibrate Canada Inc., NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2025M01_POLICY_UNCERTAINTY": { "label": "Policy uncertainty is elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_POLICY_UNCERTAINTY", "description": "Index: 2015 = 100, monthly data\n\nThe US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index counts the monthly frequency of articles in major newspapers that discuss trade policy uncertainty. This index was developed in D. Caldara, M. Iacoviello, P. Molligo, A. Pretipino and A. Raffo, “The Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 109 (2020): 38–59. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is a GDP weighted average of the indices from 21 countries. These indexes are available at policyuncertainty.com.\n\npolicyuncertainty.com and International Monetary Fund via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_POT_GROWTH": { "label": "GDP growth is projected to rise above potential output growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_POT_GROWTH", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M01_RES_INV": { "label": "Housing is on track to strengthen in the fourth quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_RES_INV", "description": "Quarterly growth, annualized\n\nContributions to growth are an approximation and may not exactly sum to the total growth rate.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_SLIDER": { "label": "The Labour market remains soft", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_SLIDER", "description": "Selected labour market measures compared with their historical strongest/tightest and historical weakest/softest\n\nAll variables are in percent other than the vacancy-unemployment ratio. This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical worst and best values. The range of benchmarks are based on estimates of trend using different methodologies: the modified Hamilton filter; the Hodrick-Prescott filter; values of the indicator corresponding to a period when the labour input gap was closed (adjusted for demographic changes); and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada . Due to limitations from the short sample, the benchmark range for vacancy measures does not include the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; JVWS is the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. For more details, see E. Ens, A. Lam, K. See and G. Galassi, “Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update,” Staff Analytical Note No. 2024-8 (April 2024).\n\nStatistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2025M01 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_SQP_CAN", "description": "2025M01 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2025M01_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2025M01_TRADE_OUTPUT": { "label": "A global trade conflict reduces Canadian GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_TRADE_OUTPUT", "description": "Impact on real GDP growth relative to a no tariff scenario, annual average growth\n\nBank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M01_TRADE_TOTAL_CPI": { "label": "A global trade conflict increases Canadian inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_TRADE_TOTAL_CPI", "description": "Impact on total CPI inflation relative to a no tariff scenario, annual average inflation\n\nBank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M01_US_GDP": { "label": "US growth continues to be strong", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_US_GDP", "description": "Contributions to real GDP growth, seasonally adjusted, quarterly data\n\nOther includes residential investment, net exports and inventories.\n\nUS Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_US_INFLATION_A": { "label": "PCE Inflation in services prices remains above pre-pandemic levels - US PCE inflation, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_US_INFLATION_A", "description": "a. US inflation components\n\nPCE is the personal consumption expenditures price index.\n\nUS Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_US_INFLATION_B": { "label": "PCE Inflation in services prices remains above pre-pandemic levels - US PCE inflation, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_US_INFLATION_B", "description": "b. Contributions to US inflation\n\nPCE refers to the personal consumption expenditure price index.\n\nUS Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M01_WAGES": { "label": "Wage growth shows some signs of moderating", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M01_WAGES", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly and quarterly data\n\nLFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. LFS, microdata measures wage growth using microdata from the LFS to abstract from changes in worker characteristics, extracting a quality-adjusted price for labour. For more details, see F. Bounajm, T. Devakos and G. Galassi, “Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2024¬-23 (October 2024). All wage series are measured as compensation per hour except for SEPH, which is measured in terms of average weekly earnings. Private sector in SEPH excludes wages from public administration, education and health.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04": { "label": "Monetary Policy Report—April 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04", "description": "The Canadian economy ended 2024 in a strong position. However, the trade conflict and tariffs are expected to slow growth and add to price pressures. The outlook is very uncertain because of the unpredictability of US trade policy and the magnitude of its impact on the Canadian economy." }, "MPR_2025M04_CARBON_A": { "label": "The removal of the consumer carbon tax permanently lowers the path of consumer prices and lowers inflation for one year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_CARBON_A", "description": "Illustrative data (see note for details)\n\nNote: This is an illustration of the impact that removing the consumer carbon tax could have on the level of consumer prices and the year-over-year inflation rate, assuming constant underlying inflation of 2% and holding other factors constant.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_CARBON_B": { "label": "Year-over-year CPI inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_CARBON_B", "description": "" }, "MPR_2025M04_CPI_GROW": { "label": "Inflation temporarily falls below 2% in Scenario 1 and inflation temporarily declines before rising above 3% in Scenario 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_CPI_GROW", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nNote: The assumptions and scenarios were finalized on April 11, 2025.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_CPI_SHELTER": { "label": "Inflation excluding shelter services has returned close to its historical norm", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_CPI_SHELTER", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04_CPI_TAX": { "label": "Inflation has risen since late last year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_CPI_TAX", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04_CPI_YOY": { "label": "Core inflation remains elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_CPI_YOY", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04_EQUITY": { "label": "Equity markets have fallen sharply since the January Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_EQUITY", "description": "Returns on equity indexes since April 1, 2024, daily data\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "MPR_2025M04_EX_IM": { "label": "Businesses pulled their trade forward in anticipation of tariffs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_EX_IM", "description": "Quarter-over-quarter percentage change at annual rates, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_GDP": { "label": "GDP growth is estimated to have slowed in the first quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_GDP", "description": "Contributions to real GDP growth, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_GDP_GROW": { "label": "GDP growth stalls in the second quarter of 2025 in Scenario 1 and GDP contracts over the remainder of 2025 in Scenario 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_GDP_GROW", "description": "Quarter-over-quarter percentage change at annual rates, quarterly data\n\nNote: The assumptions and scenarios were finalized on April 11, 2025.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_GLOBAL_GROWTH": { "label": "Global growth falls more sharply in Scenario 2 than in Scenario 1", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_GLOBAL_GROWTH", "description": "Global GDP growth, annualized percentage change, quarterly data\n\nNote: The assumptions and scenarios were finalized on April 11, 2025.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_GLOBAL_POT_GROWTH": { "label": "Global potential output growth slows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_GLOBAL_POT_GROWTH", "description": "Annual data\n\nNote: The assumptions and scenarios were finalized on April 11, 2025.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_HEATMAP": { "label": "Inflation in most goods prices has risen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each CPI component’s year-over-year inflation rate from its historical average. The colour is white when a component’s inflation rate is close to its average and is a varying shade of red (blue) when the rate is above (below) the average. Because the historical range of inflation varies widely across CPI components, each inflation rate plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996–2019, except for Regulation-affected services and Other services, where available data begin in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Note that Regulation-affected services includes prices that are affected by government regulations either directly (e.g., child care services) or indirectly (e.g., telephone services). Values in parentheses are CPI weights (in percent). Due to rounding, weights within categories may not sum to their respective totals. The components include the temporary GST/HST holiday (December 14, 2024, to February 15, 2025). This tax change impacts a wide range of goods and services, particularly semi-durable goods and food services.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04_INFL_EXP_A": { "label": "Short-term inflation expectations have increased, Quarterly and monthly data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_INFL_EXP_A", "description": "Businesses\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSource: Consensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04_INFL_EXP_B": { "label": "Short-term inflation expectations have increased, Quarterly and monthly data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_INFL_EXP_B", "description": "Consumers and professional forecasters" }, "MPR_2025M04_INV": { "label": "Businesses affected by trade tensions have weak investment intentions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_INV", "description": "Investment intentions by exposure to trade tensions, Business Outlook Survey, balance of opinion*\n\n*Percentage of businesses expecting higher investment spending minus the percentage expecting lower investment spending\nNote: Bank of Canada staff reviewed interview responses to assess businesses’ exposure to trade tensions and to determine whether they were strongly impacted by changing US policies.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2025M04_LF_EMP": { "label": "The trade conflict has disrupted the labour market recovery", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_LF_EMP", "description": "3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: Employment growth needed to keep the employment rate constant is calculated by multiplying the net monthly change in the size of the working-age population in the Labour Force Survey by the previous month’s employment rate.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04_OIL_PRICES": { "label": "Oil prices have declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_OIL_PRICES", "description": "Daily data\n\nSources: NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics and Argus Media" }, "MPR_2025M04_POT_GROW": { "label": "Canadian potential output growth slows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_POT_GROW", "description": "Annual data\n\nNote: The assumptions and scenarios were finalized on April 11, 2025.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_SLIDER": { "label": "The labour market is in modest excess supply", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_SLIDER", "description": "Selected labour market measures compared with their historical strongest/tightest and historical weakest/softest\n\nNote: All variables are in percent except the vacancy-unemployment ratio. This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators compared with their historical worst and best values. The benchmark ranges are based on trend estimates using different methodologies: the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, values of the indicator corresponding to a period when the labour input gap was closed (adjusted for demographic changes) and—for selected indicators—trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Due to limitations from the short sample period, the benchmark range for vacancy measures does not include the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. BOS is the Business Outlook Survey, and JVWS is the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. For more details, see E. Ens, A. Lam, K. See and G. Galassi, “Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update,” Staff Analytical Note No. 2024-8 (April 2024).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04_TARIFF_RATE": { "label": "If fully implemented, US tariffs announced on April 2 would be the highest in more than a century", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_TARIFF_RATE", "description": "US tariff rate, weighted average, annual data\n\nSources: US International Trade Commission and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M04_US_GROWTH": { "label": "The US economy has a recession in Scenario 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_US_GROWTH", "description": "US GDP growth, annualized percentage change, quarterly data\n\nNote: The assumptions and scenarios were finalized on April 11, 2025.\n\nSources: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_US_PCE_INFLATION": { "label": "US inflation rises sharply in Scenario 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_US_PCE_INFLATION", "description": "US personal consumption expenditures inflation, year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nNote: The assumptions and scenarios were finalized on April 11, 2025.\n\nSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bank of Canada calculations estimates" }, "MPR_2025M04_WAGES": { "label": "Wage growth shows further signs of moderating", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M04_WAGES", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly and quarterly data\n\nNote: LFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. LFS, microdata measures wage growth using microdata from the LFS to abstract from changes in worker characteristics, extracting a quality-adjusted price for labour. For more details, see F. Bounajm, T. Devakos and G. Galassi, “Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2024-23 (October 2024). All wage series are measured as compensation per hour except for SEPH, which is measured in terms of average weekly earnings. Private sector in SEPH excludes wages from public administration, education and health care and social assistance.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07": { "label": "Monetary Policy Report—July 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07", "description": "Tariffs are significantly higher than they were at the start of 2025, and it is extremely difficult to predict how US trade policy will play out. Canadian economic activity has slowed but is showing signs of resilience. While inflation is close to 2%, underlying inflation has picked up." }, "MPR_2025M07_CHINA_EXPORTS_DIRECTION": { "label": "Chart 24: China’s exports to the United States and the rest of the world have diverged", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CHINA_EXPORTS_DIRECTION", "description": "Nominal exports by destination in US dollars, index: 2021 = 100, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nASEAN refers to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.\n\nChina’s General Administration of Customs via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_CPI_CONTRIBUTIONS": { "label": "Chart 17: CPI inflation averages around 2% over the scenario horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CPI_CONTRIBUTIONS", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year CPI inflation, quarterly data\n\nNo changes to indirect tax rates are assumed over the outlook horizon.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_CPI_DYNAMICS": { "label": "Chart 6: CPI inflation excluding indirect taxes has picked up since the fourth quarter of 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CPI_DYNAMICS", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_CPI_ENERGY": { "label": "Chart 8: Inflation in prices of goods excluding energy has picked up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CPI_ENERGY", "description": "Monthly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_CPI_GROW": { "label": "Chart 28: Inflation eases further below target in the de-escalation scenario Chart 30: Inflation picks up in the escalation scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CPI_GROW", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_CPI_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 7: The composition of CPI inflation is shifting", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CPI_HEATMAP", "description": "The heatmap shows the distance of each CPI component’s year-over-year inflation rate from its historical average. The colour is white when a component’s inflation rate is close to its average and is a varying shade of blue (red) when the rate is below (above) the average. Because the historical range of inflation varies widely across CPI components, each inflation rate plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996–2019, except for Regulation-affected services and Other services, where available data begin in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Note that Regulation-affected services includes prices that are affected by government regulations either directly (e.g., child care services) or indirectly (e.g., telephone services). Values in parentheses are CPI weights (in percent). Due to rounding, weights within categories may not sum to their respective totals. The components include the temporary GST/HST holiday (December 14, 2024, to February 15, 2025). This tax change impacts a wide range of goods and services, particularly semi-durable goods and food services. The components also include the removal of the consumer carbon tax (April 1, 2025).\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_CPI_RANGE": { "label": "Chart 10: Core inflation has risen since late 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CPI_RANGE", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nCore measures included are CPI-trim, CPI-median, CPIX and CPIXFET. CPI-trim excludes CPI components whose rates of change in a given month are located in the tails of the distribution of price changes. CPI-median is a measure of core inflation corresponding to the price change located at the 50th percentile. CPIX excludes eight of the most volatile components of inflation. CPIXFET excludes food and energy inflation. All measures exclude the effect of indirect taxes.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_CPI_SHAREABOVEBELOW": { "label": "Chart 11: The share of CPI components growing above 3% has risen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CPI_SHAREABOVEBELOW", "description": "Share of CPI components with price growth above and below the inflation target band, monthly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_CPI_SHELTER": { "label": "Chart 9: Inflation in shelter services prices is slowing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_CPI_SHELTER", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_EMP_TARIFFS": { "label": "Chart 4: Employment has declined in sectors that rely on exports to the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_EMP_TARIFFS", "description": "Employment, index: 2023 = 100, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nA sector is considered to have significant reliance on exports to the United States if at least 35% of the sector’s jobs depend on US demand. These include several manufacturing and transportation subsectors as well as commodities sectors, including energy and forestry. Together, these subsectors make up about 10% of employment.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_EQUITY_MARKETS": { "label": "Chart 26: Equity markets have recovered and are above their pre-tariff announcement levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_EQUITY_MARKETS", "description": "Change in equity indexes since July 1, 2024, daily data\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P." }, "MPR_2025M07_EX": { "label": "Chart 16: Non-commodity exports remain below their 2024 levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_EX", "description": "Annualized, quarterly data, chained 2017 Canadian dollars\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_EXPORTS": { "label": "Chart 2: Exports to the United States have fallen sharply after the pull-forward of trade activity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_EXPORTS", "description": "Nominal exports, index: June 2015 = 100, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_GDP": { "label": "Chart 1: GDP is estimated to have contracted in the second quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_GDP", "description": "Contributions to real GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_GDP_EX_DD": { "label": "Chart 14: GDP growth slows in 2025 due to the trade conflict but then picks up gradually", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_GDP_EX_DD", "description": "Contributions to real GDP growth, fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter percentage change, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_GDP_GROW_A": { "label": "Chart 27: Economic activity picks up in the de-escalation scenario Chart 29: Economic activity is weak in the escalation scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_GDP_GROW_A", "description": "Quarterly data a. Quarter-over-quarter percentage change of real GDP at annual rates\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_GDP_GROW_B": { "label": "Chart 27: Economic activity picks up in the de-escalation scenario Chart 29: Economic activity is weak in the escalation scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_GDP_GROW_B", "description": "Quarterly data b. Level of real GDP, index: 2025Q1 = 100\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_GDP_TARIFF_A": { "label": "Chart 15: GDP growth strengthens, but the level of activity is permanently lower than projected in the January Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_GDP_TARIFF_A", "description": "Quarterly data a. Quarter-over-quarter percentage change of real GDP at annual rates\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_GDP_TARIFF_B": { "label": "Chart 15: GDP growth strengthens, but the level of activity is permanently lower than projected in the January Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_GDP_TARIFF_B", "description": "Quarterly data b. Level of real GDP, index: 2025Q1 = 100\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M07_INFL_EXP_PANEL_A": { "label": "Chart 12: Businesses’ inflation expectations have fallen, while consumers’ expectations are flat", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_INFL_EXP_PANEL_A", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data a. Businesses\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nConsensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_INFL_EXP_PANEL_B": { "label": "Chart 12: Businesses’ inflation expectations have fallen, while consumers’ expectations are flat", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_INFL_EXP_PANEL_B", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data b. Consumers and professional forecasters\n\nCSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nConsensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_LMI_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 3: Most indicators point to an excess supply of labour", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_LMI_HEATMAP", "description": "The heatmap shows the distance of each labour market indicator from the midpoint of its benchmark range. The colour is white when the indicator is close to the midpoint of its benchmark range, a varying shade of red when the labour market is in excess demand and a varying shade of blue when the labour market is in excess supply. To make the indicators more comparable, each indicator is divided by its standard deviation. The standard deviation is calculated using data from April 2015 to 2019 for the Job-vacancies-to-unemployment ratio and 2003 to 2019 for all other indicators. The benchmark ranges are established using the methodology outlined in E. Ens, K. See and C. Luu, “Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2023-07 (May 2023).\n\nStatistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_PMI_GLOBAL": { "label": "Chart 19: Global economic activity has remained resilient to shifts in US trade policy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_PMI_GLOBAL", "description": "Headline purchasing managers’ indexes, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nPurchasing managers’ indexes greater than 50 indicate growth in the sector.\n\nS&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Survey via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2025M07_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2025M07 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_SQP_CAN", "description": "2025M07 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2025M07_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2025M07_TARIFF_RATES": { "label": "Chart 20: The average US tariff rate is the highest it has been in decades", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_TARIFF_RATES", "description": "US weighted average tariff rate, annual data\n\nUS International Trade Commission and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_UNCERTAINTY_ZSCORE": { "label": "Chart 21: Policy uncertainty remains volatile and above historical levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_UNCERTAINTY_ZSCORE", "description": "US policy uncertainty indexes, index: 2015–19 = 100, 7-day moving average, daily data\n\nThe US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index was developed in D. Caldara, M. Iacoviello, P. Molligo, A. Pretipino and A. Raffo, “The Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 109 (2020): 38–59. The US Economic Policy Uncertain Index was developed in S. R. Baker, N. Bloom and S. J. Davis, “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 131, Issue 4 (2016): 1593–1636. Both indexes are available at PolicyUncertainty.com.\n\nPolicyUncertainty.com, Caldara et al. and Baker et al. via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_US_CPI": { "label": "Chart 23: US inflation picked up in June", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_US_CPI", "description": "US consumer price index, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nUS Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2025M07_US_IMPORTS": { "label": "Chart 22: US imports from China and Canada have declined, but imports from other regions have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_US_IMPORTS", "description": "Nominal imports by origin, index: 2023 = 100, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nASEAN refers to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.\n\nUS Census Bureau via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_US_TARIFF": { "label": "Chart 13: US tariff policy remains difficult to predict", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_US_TARIFF", "description": "Estimated increases to weighted average tariff rates since the start of 2025\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M07_WAGES": { "label": "Chart 5: Wage growth continued to ease", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M07_WAGES", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly and quarterly data\n\nLFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. LFS, microdata, private sector measures wage growth using microdata from the LFS to abstract from changes in worker characteristics, extracting a quality-adjusted price for labour. For more details, see F. Bounajm, T. Devakos and G. Galassi, “Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2024-23 (October 2024). All wage series are measured as compensation per hour except for SEPH, which is measured in terms of average weekly earnings. Private sector in SEPH excludes wages from public administration, education, and health care and social assistance.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10": { "label": "Monetary Policy Report—October 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10", "description": "Canada’s economy is adjusting to tariffs and the sharp drop in demand for exports. The reconfiguration of global trade and domestic production is leading to higher costs. Total inflation has been around 2%, while underlying inflation remains about 2½%." }, "MPR_2025M10_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2025M10 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2025M10 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2025M10_BOND_YIELD_A": { "label": "Chart 16: US and Canadian bond yields have declined since the July Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_BOND_YIELD_A", "description": "Daily data a. 2-year government bond yield\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "MPR_2025M10_BOND_YIELD_B": { "label": "Chart 16: US and Canadian bond yields have declined since the July Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_BOND_YIELD_B", "description": "Daily data b. 10-year government bond yield\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "MPR_2025M10_CHINA_EXPORTS": { "label": "Chart 31: The diversion of trade away from the United States has supported China’s exports", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CHINA_EXPORTS", "description": "Nominal exports of goods by destination, billions of US dollars, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.\n\nSources: China’s General Administration of Customs via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_CHINA_INDICATORS": { "label": "Chart 32: Indicators of domestic demand show broad-based weakness in China", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CHINA_INDICATORS", "description": "Activity indicators, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: National Bureau of Statistics of China via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_CONSUMPTION_GROWTH": { "label": "Chart 22: Consumption growth is expected to be slower over the projection horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CONSUMPTION_GROWTH", "description": "Contribution to consumption growth, quarter-over-quarter at annual rates, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_CONSUMPTION_PC": { "label": "Chart 2: Consumer spending per person continued to increase despite trade headwinds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CONSUMPTION_PC", "description": "Index: 2019 = 100, quarterly data\n\nNote: Data for the population aged 15 and older are from Statistics Canada’s quarterly population estimates. Discretionary goods include alcoholic beverages and tobacco, clothing and footwear, furnishings and household items, recreation and culture goods, and jewellery and other personal effects.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_CORE": { "label": "Chart 12: Core inflation is elevated, but the upward momentum has faded", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CORE", "description": "Monthly data\n\nNote: Core measures included are CPI-trim, CPI-median, CPIX and CPIXFET. CPI-trim excludes CPI components whose rates of change in a given month are located in the tails of the distribution of price changes. CPI-median is a measure of core inflation corresponding to the price change located at the 50th percentile. CPIX excludes eight of the most volatile components of inflation. CPIXFET excludes food and energy inflation. All core inflation measures exclude the effect of indirect taxes.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_CORE_INF": { "label": "Chart 34: Measures of core inflation remain around 2½% to 3¼%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CORE_INF", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Core measures included are CPI-trim, CPI-median, CPIX and CPIXFET. CPI-trim excludes CPI components whose rates of change in a given month are located in the tails of the distribution of price changes. CPI-median is a measure of core inflation corresponding to the price change located at the 50th percentile. CPIX excludes eight of the most volatile components of inflation. CPIXFET excludes food and energy inflation. All core inflation measures exclude the effect of indirect taxes.\n\nSource: Statistics Canada" }, "MPR_2025M10_COST_DRIVERS": { "label": "Chart 37: Shifts in trade are adding new costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_COST_DRIVERS", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year CPI inflation, deviation from target, quarterly data\n\nNote: Examples of included costs are commodity prices, import prices and shipping costs.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_CPI": { "label": "Chart 10: CPI inflation rose in September as the drag from gasoline prices eased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CPI", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M10_CPI_CONTRIBUTIONS": { "label": "Chart 24: CPI inflation averages around 2% over the projection horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CPI_CONTRIBUTIONS", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year CPI inflation, quarterly data\n\nNote: No changes to indirect tax rates are assumed over the projection horizon.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_CPI_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 11: Inflation in shelter services prices has moderated since the start of the year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_CPI_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each CPI component’s year-over-year inflation\nrate from its historical average. The colour is white when a component’s inflation rate is\nclose to its average and is a varying shade of red (blue) when the rate is above (below) the\naverage. Because the historical range of inflation varies widely across CPI components,\neach inflation rate plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and\ndividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996 to 2019, except for Regulation-affected services and Other services, where available data\nbegin in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Note that Regulation-affected services includes\nprices that are affected by government regulations either directly (e.g., child care services)\nor indirectly (e.g., telephone services). Values in parentheses are CPI weights (in percent).\nDue to rounding, weights within categories may not sum to their respective totals. The\ncomponents include the temporary GST/HST tax holiday (December 14, 2024, to February\n15, 2025). This tax change impacts a wide range of goods and services, particularly semidurable goods and food services.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_EMP_IMM": { "label": "Chart 8: Employment growth is weakening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_EMP_IMM", "description": "Seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: Employment growth needed to keep the employment rate constant is calculated by multiplying the net monthly change in the size of the working-age population in the Labour Force Survey by the previous month’s employment rate.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M10_EMP_US": { "label": "Chart 7: Employment remains weak in sectors that rely on exports to the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_EMP_US", "description": "Employment level, index: December 2024 = 100, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: A sector is considered to have significant reliance on exports to the United States if at least 35% of the sector’s jobs depend on US demand. These include several manufacturing and transportation subsectors as well as commodities sectors, including energy and forestry.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_EQUITY_MARKETS": { "label": "Chart 17: Equity markets have continued to rise sharply since the July Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_EQUITY_MARKETS", "description": "Daily data\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "MPR_2025M10_EX": { "label": "Chart 21: Non-commodity exports are expected to remain below their 2024 levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_EX", "description": "Annualized, quarterly data, chained 2017 Canadian dollars\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_EXP_DESTINATION": { "label": "Chart 5: Exports to markets outside the United States have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_EXP_DESTINATION", "description": "Change in Canada’s exports of goods since 2024, by destination, annualized\n\nNote: Exports of goods exclude those originating from the gold and silver ore mining industry because shipments of gold are highly volatile and often reflect inventory management. Shipments of gold do not reflect underlying production levels or demand because gold is frequently re-exported, stored or shipped for financial or custodial reasons. Annual averages are calculated using 2024 and 2025 data from January to August of each year.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_GDP_CTGS": { "label": "Chart 1: The decline in exports pulled GDP down in the second quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_GDP_CTGS", "description": "Contributions to real GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M10_GDP_EX_DD": { "label": "Chart 20: GDP is expected to average 1.4% in 2026 and 2027", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_GDP_EX_DD", "description": "Contributions to real GDP growth, annual change, yearly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_GDP_TARIFF_A": { "label": "Chart 19: GDP growth is expected to strengthen, but the level of activity is lower than projected in the January Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_GDP_TARIFF_A", "description": "Quarterly data a. Quarter-over-quarter percentage change of real GDP at annual rates\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_GDP_TARIFF_B": { "label": "Chart 19: GDP growth is expected to strengthen, but the level of activity is lower than projected in the January Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_GDP_TARIFF_B", "description": "Quarterly data b. Level of real GDP, index: 2024Q4 = 100\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_GEG": { "label": "2025M10 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_GEG", "description": "2025M10 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2025M10_GOODS_EXP": { "label": "Chart 4: Tariffs continue to weigh on exports of goods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_GOODS_EXP", "description": "Percentage change from 2024Q3, monthly data\n\nNote: Exports of goods exclude precious metals products because shipments of gold are highly volatile and often reflect inventory management. Shipments of gold do not reflect underlying production levels or demand because gold is frequently re-exported, stored or shipped for financial or custodial reasons. Sectors directly affected by specific tariffs include motor vehicles, steel and aluminum products, copper, softwood lumber and furniture.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2025M10_HOT_COMMODITIES": { "label": "Chart 15: Gold and cattle prices continue to climb", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_HOT_COMMODITIES", "description": "Commodity prices, index: 2019 = 100, daily data\n\nNote: Gold is measured in US dollars per ounce, cattle is measured in US dollars per 100 pounds, lumber is measured in US dollars per 1,000 board feet, and canola is measured in US dollars per bushel. BCNE is the Bank of Canada non-energy commodity index.\n\nSources: Gold: Handy and Harman, N.Y.; Cattle: Steer feeder, Oklahoma City; Lumber: Chicago Mercantile Exchange; Canola: #1 Canada in store, Vancouver" }, "MPR_2025M10_HSG": { "label": "Chart 3: Housing activity has edged up from recent lows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_HSG", "description": "Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, monthly data\n\nSources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Canadian Real Estate Association and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_IF_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 36: Cost pressures on goods are easing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_IF_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each cost component’s year-over-year growth from its historical average. The colour is white when the component is near its historical average, a varying shade of blue when it is below its historical average, and a varying shade of red when it is above its historical average. The colour is grey when data were not available at the time of writing. Final goods imports and Intermediate goods imports reflect various Canadian import prices. Domestic inputs reflects various Canadian industrial production prices indexes. Business services includes commercial rents and the For-hire Motor Carrier Freight Services Price Index.\n\nSources: Harper Peterson & Co. and Baltic Exchange via Haver Analytics, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_INFL_EXP_PANEL_A": { "label": "Chart 13: Businesses’ inflation expectations have declined, while consumers’ expectations have been flat", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_INFL_EXP_PANEL_A", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data a. Businesses\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Consensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_INFL_EXP_PANEL_B": { "label": "Chart 13: Businesses’ inflation expectations have declined, while consumers’ expectations have been flat", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_INFL_EXP_PANEL_B", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data b. Consumers and professional forecasters\n\nNote: CSCE is the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations; BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Consensus Economics’ forecasts for the next year (based on monthly data) and the next two years (based on a combination of monthly and quarterly data releases) are transformed into fixed-horizon forecasts by the weighted average of fixed-date forecasts. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Consensus Economics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_LMI_HEATMAP_QUARTERLY": { "label": "Chart 6: Slack in the labour market has increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_LMI_HEATMAP_QUARTERLY", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each labour market indicator from the midpoint of its benchmark range. The colour is white when the indicator is close to the midpoint of its benchmark range, a varying shade of red when the labour market is in excess demand and a varying shade of blue when the labour market is in excess supply. To make the indicators more comparable, each indicator is divided by its standard deviation. The standard deviation is calculated using data from April 2015 to December 2019 for the Job-vacancies-to-unemployment ratio and from 2003 to 2019 for all other indicators. The benchmark ranges are established using the methodology outlined in E. Ens, K. See and C. Luu, “Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2023-07 (May 2023).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_OIL": { "label": "Chart 14: Oil prices are close to levels observed in August", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_OIL", "description": "Daily data\n\nSources: NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics and Argus Media" }, "MPR_2025M10_OIL_INV": { "label": "Chart 23: Business investment is anticipated to pick up slowly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_OIL_INV", "description": "Contribution to real business investment growth, quarter-over-quarter at annual rates, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_PASSTHROUGH": { "label": "Chart 38: Fewer businesses than in previous quarters are planning to pass trade-related cost increases on to customers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_PASSTHROUGH", "description": "Percentage of respondents, pass-through expectations over the next 12 months, Business Outlook Survey, quarterly data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2025M10_POLICY_UNCERTAINTY": { "label": "Chart 26: US policy uncertainty indexes remain elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_POLICY_UNCERTAINTY", "description": "US policy uncertainty indexes, index: 2015–19 = 100, 7-day moving average, daily data\n\nNote: The US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index counts the monthly frequency of articles in major US newspapers that discuss trade policy uncertainty. This index was developed in D. Caldara, M. Iacoviello, P. Molligo, A. Pretipino and A. Raffo, “The Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty,” Journal of Monetary Economics 109 (2020): 38–59. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index counts the number of articles in a broad set of US newspapers that discuss economic policy uncertainty. These indexes are available at policyuncertainty.com. Baker et al. refers to S. R. Baker, N. Bloom and S. J. Davis, “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 131, no. 4 (2016): 1593–1636.\n\nSources: PolicyUncertainty.com, Caldara et al. (2020) and Baker et al. (2016) via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_PRICE_INCREASE": { "label": "Chart 39: More businesses than in previous quarters are expecting to hold prices steady", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_PRICE_INCREASE", "description": "Percentage of respondents, price change expectations in the next 12 months, Business Outlook Survey, quarterly data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2025M10_PRICE_PRESSURE": { "label": "Chart 35: Breadth of price pressures suggests inflation of around 2% to 2½%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_PRICE_PRESSURE", "description": "Note: The trend line and fitted value are estimated using a linear regression based on a sample from January 1995 to September 2025.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2025M10 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_SQP_CAN", "description": "2025M10 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2025M10_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2025M10_TARIFF_PLACEMAT": { "label": "Chart 18: The increase in tariff rates is larger than previously assumed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_TARIFF_PLACEMAT", "description": "Estimated increases to average tariff rates on imported goods since the start of 2025\n\nNote: To highlight changes reflecting the dramatic shift in US trade policy, the chart presents the marginal change in tariff rates from the start of the year up to October 22, 2025. Calculating tariff levels from other countries on the United States before 2025 is challenging due to data limitations.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_US_CPI": { "label": "Chart 29: Inflation in US goods prices is rising as tariff costs are passed on to consumer prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_US_CPI", "description": "Contributions to core CPI growth, year-over-year, monthly data\n\nSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_US_EMPLOYMENT": { "label": "Chart 28: US employment growth by sector has weakened since April", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_US_EMPLOYMENT", "description": "Contributions to US non-farm employment growth, 3-month annualized rate, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_US_GDP_PROJ": { "label": "Chart 30: The path of US GDP is lower than projected in the January Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_US_GDP_PROJ", "description": "US GDP, index: 2024Q4 = 100, quarterly data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2025M10_US_IMPORTS": { "label": "Chart 27: US imports of goods from China, Canada and the euro area have declined, but imports from other regions have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_US_IMPORTS", "description": "Nominal imports of goods by origin, index: 2023 = 100, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: ASEAN is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.\n\nSources: US Census Bureau via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_US_TARIFF_RATES": { "label": "Chart 25: The average US tariff rate has eased since April but remains the highest it has been in decades", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_US_TARIFF_RATES", "description": "US tariff rate, weighted average, annual data\n\nSources: US International Trade Commission and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2025M10_WAGES": { "label": "Chart 9: Wage growth is around 3%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2025M10_WAGES", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, private sector, monthly data\n\nNote: LFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. LFS, microdata measures wage growth using microdata from the LFS to abstract from changes in worker characteristics, extracting a quality-adjusted price for labour. For more details, see F. Bounajm, T. Devakos and G. Galassi, “Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using Labour Force Survey microdata,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2024-23 (October 2024). All wage series are measured as compensation per hour except for SEPH, which is measured in terms of average weekly earnings. Private sector in SEPH excludes wages from public administration, education, and health care and social assistance.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01": { "label": "Monetary Policy Report—January 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01", "description": "The Canadian economy continues to adjust to US tariffs and the new global trade landscape. This adjustment will take time and growth is expected to be modest. Inflation is projected to remain near the 2% target." }, "MPR_2026M01_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2026M01 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2026M01 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2026M01_BOS_HIRING": { "label": "Chart 4: Businesses’ hiring intentions remain weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_BOS_HIRING", "description": "Balance of opinion, Business Outlook Survey, quarterly data\n\nNote: Balance of opinion is the percentage of businesses expecting a higher number of employees minus the percentage expecting a lower number of employees in their organization over the next 12 months.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2026M01_CHINA_TRADE_BALANCE": { "label": "Chart 20: China’s trade surplus is growing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_CHINA_TRADE_BALANCE", "description": "Nominal trade balance of goods and services as a share of GDP, quarterly data\n\nSources: China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange and National Bureau of Statistics via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_CONSUMPTION": { "label": "Chart 14: Consumption per person is expected to grow modestly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_CONSUMPTION", "description": "Contribution to consumption growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Population is based on Statistics Canada’s quarterly estimate of residents aged 15 and older. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M01_CORE_BAR": { "label": "Chart 7: Measures of core inflation are showing signs of easing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_CORE_BAR", "description": "Monthly data, December 2025\n\nNote: CPI-median is a measure of core inflation corresponding to the price change located at the 50th percentile. CPI-trim excludes CPI components whose rates of change in a given month are located in the tails of the distribution of price changes. All core inflation measures exclude the effect of indirect taxes.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_CPI": { "label": "Chart 5: CPI inflation has been within the 1% to 3% band for the past two years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_CPI", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_CPI_DEVIATION": { "label": "Chart 16: CPI inflation stays near 2% over the projection horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_CPI_DEVIATION", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year CPI inflation, deviation from target, quarterly data\n\nNote: Costs includes, for example, commodity prices, import prices and shipping costs. Other includes, for example, base-year effects from the previous GST/HST holiday, movements in gasoline refinery margins and inflation not attributed to the identified components. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M01_CPI_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 6: Inflation in some food and services components remains elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_CPI_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each CPI component’s year-over-year inflation rate from its historical average. The colour is white when a component’s inflation rate is close to its average and is a varying shade of blue (red) when the rate is below (above) the average. Because the historical range of inflation varies widely across CPI components, each inflation rate plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996 to 2019, except for Regulation-affected services and Other services, where available data begin in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Regulation-affected services includes prices that are affected by government regulations either directly (e.g., child care services) or indirectly (e.g., telephone services). Values in parentheses are CPI weights (in percent). Due to rounding, weights within categories may not sum to their respective totals.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_CPI_M_FORECAST": { "label": "Chart 15: CPI inflation is expected to ease temporarily below 2% before settling near target", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_CPI_M_FORECAST", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M01_EA_PMI": { "label": "Chart 19: A robust services sector is strengthening overall activity in the euro area", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_EA_PMI", "description": "Purchasing managers’ indexes, monthly data\n\nNote: Purchasing managers’ indexes greater than 50 indicate growth in the sector.\n\nSource: S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Survey via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2026M01_EMP_TRADE": { "label": "Chart 3: Employment in sectors reliant on the United States remains subdued", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_EMP_TRADE", "description": "Employment level, index: December 2024 = 100, monthly data\n\nNote: A sector is considered to have high reliance on exports to the United States if at least 35% of the sector’s jobs depend on US demand. These sectors include several manufacturing and transportation subsectors as well as commodities sectors, including energy and forestry.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_EQUITY_MARKETS_RECOVERY": { "label": "Chart 9: Equity markets have continued to rise since the October Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_EQUITY_MARKETS_RECOVERY", "description": "Change in equity indexes since January 1, 2025, daily data\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_EX": { "label": "Chart 13: Non-commodity exports are projected to grow along a lower path than before US tariffs were imposed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_EX", "description": "Chained 2017 Canadian dollars, annualized, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M01_EXPORT_CTGS": { "label": "Chart 2: Exports of goods excluding gold are weak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_EXPORT_CTGS", "description": "Percentage change from September 2024, monthly data\n\nNote: Exports of goods exclude precious metals products because shipments of gold are highly volatile and often reflect inventory management. Shipments of gold do not reflect underlying production levels or demand because gold is frequently re-exported, stored or shipped for financial or custodial reasons.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M01_GDP_CTGS": { "label": "Chart 1: GDP growth remained volatile, rebounding in the third quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_GDP_CTGS", "description": "Contributions to GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Population is based on Statistics Canada’s quarterly estimate of residents aged 15 and older. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M01_GDP_EX_DD_Q": { "label": "Chart 12: GDP growth is expected to remain modest", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_GDP_EX_DD_Q", "description": "Contributions to GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Net exports and inventories includes Statistics Canada’s statistical discrepancy. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M01_GDP_GROWTH": { "label": "Chart 22: Canada’s economy was stronger than previously thought", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_GDP_GROWTH", "description": "GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_GDP_TARIFF": { "label": "Chart 11: US trade restrictions are expected to have a lasting negative impact on the Canadian economy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_GDP_TARIFF", "description": "Level of GDP, index: 2024Q4 = 100, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M01_GEG": { "label": "2026M01 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_GEG", "description": "2026M01 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2026M01_OIL_PRICES": { "label": "Chart 8: Oil prices have been lower, on average, since October", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_OIL_PRICES", "description": "Daily data\n\nSources: NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics and Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "MPR_2026M01_RE_EXPORTS": { "label": "Chart 24: Canada is relying less on the United States to import goods from other countries", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_RE_EXPORTS", "description": "Share of nominal imports of non–US origin goods that are re-exported through the United States, non-seasonally adjusted monthly data\n\n*As a percentage of Canada’s total non–US origin goods imports\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2026M01 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_SQP_CAN", "description": "2026M01 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2026M01_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2026M01_TARIFF_PLACEMAT": { "label": "Chart 10: US tariffs remain high", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_TARIFF_PLACEMAT", "description": "Estimated increases to weighted average tariff rates on imported goods since the start of 2025\n\nNote: To highlight changes reflecting the dramatic shift in US trade policy, the chart presents the marginal change in tariff rates since the start of 2025 rather than current tariff levels. Calculating tariff levels from other countries on the United States before 2025 is challenging due to data limitations.\n\nSources: United States Census Bureau and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_US_AI_CTG": { "label": "Chart 17: Consumption spending and AI-related investment have boosted US GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_US_AI_CTG", "description": "Contribution to GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: AI is artificial intelligence. AI-related investment includes computer and peripheral equipment, intellectual property products for software and research and development, and data centre structures, unadjusted for imports and inventories. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_US_IMPORTS": { "label": "Chart 23: The decline in Canadian imports from the United States is mostly in sectors affected by tariffs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_US_IMPORTS", "description": "Change in Canada’s nominal imports before and after the onset of US trade restrictions, by country of origin\n\nNote: Chart shows the difference in nominal import levels between two periods (one year apart): April–October 2024 and April–October 2025. Tariffed sectors refers to sectors where Canada has implemented counter-tariffs, including those that were lifted as of September 1, 2025.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M01_US_INT_IMPORTS": { "label": "Chart 18: US imports of goods from China and Canada have declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M01_US_INT_IMPORTS", "description": "Nominal US imports of goods by origin, index: 2023 = 100, monthly data\n\nNote: ASEAN refers to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.\n\nSources: United States Census Bureau via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04": { "label": "April 2026 Monetary Policy Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04", "description": "April 2026 Monetary Policy Report" }, "MPR_2026M04_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2026M04 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2026M04 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2026M04_APPENDIX_GROWTH": { "label": "Chart A-1: Growth in Canadian potential output is expected to slow into 2026 and then pick up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_APPENDIX_GROWTH", "description": "Annual data\n\nNote: Data presented for the April 2025 Report are based on Scenario 1 detailed in that Report.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_APPENDIX_POTENTIAL": { "label": "Chart A-2: Global potential output growth is revised up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_APPENDIX_POTENTIAL", "description": "Annual data\n\nNote: Data presented for the April 2025 Report are based on Scenario 1 detailed in that Report.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_BOND_YIELD_A": { "label": "Chart 13: Canadian and US bond yields and equity indexes have risen since the January Report - a. 2-year government bond yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_BOND_YIELD_A", "description": "Daily data\n\nNote: Equity index returns are calculated as the percentage change in the index value since January 2, 2025.\n\nSources: London Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_BOND_YIELD_B": { "label": "Chart 13: Canadian and US bond yields and equity indexes have risen since the January Report - b. Equity index returns", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_BOND_YIELD_B", "description": "Daily data\n\nNote: Equity index returns are calculated as the percentage change in the index value since January 2, 2025.\n\nSources: London Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_BRENT_SPREAD": { "label": "Chart 10: Oil prices for immediate delivery are far above prices for future delivery", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_BRENT_SPREAD", "description": "Difference between Brent spot prices and front-month futures, daily data\n\nNote: Brent spot refers to Brent Crude Spot Free on Board Sullom Voe North Sea. Brent front-month futures refers to ICE Europe Brent Crude Electronic Energy Future front-month contract. The chart shows the difference between Brent crude prices for immediate delivery and delivery approximately two months ahead.\n\nSources: London Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_CONSUMPTION": { "label": "Chart 17: Consumption growth is expected to average just above 1% over the projection horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_CONSUMPTION", "description": "Contribution to consumption growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Population is based on Statistics Canada’s quarterly estimate of residents aged 15 and older. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_CPI": { "label": "Chart 5: CPI inflation has been close to 2% for more than a year, though higher gasoline prices boosted inflation in March", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_CPI", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_CPI_CONTRIBUTIONS": { "label": "Chart 19: CPI inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter and then begin to decline", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_CPI_CONTRIBUTIONS", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year CPI inflation, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_CPI_DEVIATION": { "label": "Chart 20: Oil prices will create upward cost pressures into 2027", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_CPI_DEVIATION", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year CPI inflation, deviation from target, quarterly data\n\nNote: Costs includes, for example, commodity prices and shipping costs. Other includes, for example, base-year effects from the previous GST/HST holiday, movements in gasoline refinery margins and inflation not attributed to the identified components. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_CPI_FORECAST": { "label": "Chart 18: CPI inflation rose in March and is expected to be above target, driven by higher gasoline prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_CPI_FORECAST", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M04_CPI_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 7: Inflation for many CPI components has slowed since November, although elevated price growth persists for some", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_CPI_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each CPI component’s year-over-year inflation rate from its historical average. The colour is white when a component’s inflation rate is close to its average and is a varying shade of blue (red) when the rate is below (above) the average. Because the historical range of inflation varies widely across CPI components, each inflation rate plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996 to 2019, except for Regulation-affected services and Other services, where available data begin in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Regulation-affected services includes prices that are affected by government regulations either directly (e.g., child care services) or indirectly (e.g., telephone services). Values in parentheses are CPI weights (in percent). Due to rounding, weights within categories may not sum to their respective totals.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_CPI_SHAREABOVEBELOW": { "label": "Chart 6: The share of CPI components growing above 3% has declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_CPI_SHAREABOVEBELOW", "description": "Share of CPI components with year-over-year price growth outside the 1% to 3% band, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_EMPLOYMENT": { "label": "Chart 4: Employment growth has generally been subdued", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_EMPLOYMENT", "description": "Seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: LFS is the Labour Force Survey. SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Employment growth needed to keep the employment rate constant is calculated by multiplying the net monthly change in the size of the working-age population in the LFS by the previous month’s employment rate.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_EX": { "label": "Chart 16: Non-commodity exports are expected to increase over the projection horizon, although on a lower path than before US tariffs were imposed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_EX", "description": "Chained 2017 Canadian dollars, annualized, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_EXPORTS_GOODS": { "label": "Chart 2: US tariffs continue to weigh on exports of goods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_EXPORTS_GOODS", "description": "Percentage change from September 2024, monthly data\n\nNote: In this chart, total goods exports excludes precious metals products because shipments of gold are highly volatile and often reflect inventory management. Shipments of gold do not reflect underlying production levels or demand because gold is frequently re-exported, stored or shipped for financial or custodial reasons.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M04_GDP_BAR": { "label": "Chart 1: A sharp inventory drawdown lowered GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_GDP_BAR", "description": "Contributions to GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Net exports and inventories includes Statistics Canada’s statistical discrepancy. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M04_GDP_FDD": { "label": "Chart 15: GDP growth is projected to outpace potential output growth and gradually absorb excess supply", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_GDP_FDD", "description": "Contributions to GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Net exports and inventories includes Statistics Canada’s statistical discrepancy. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_GEG": { "label": "2026M04 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_GEG", "description": "2026M04 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2026M04_GLOBAL_INFLATION": { "label": "Chart 21: With disruptions in global energy markets, inflation is rising", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_GLOBAL_INFLATION", "description": "Total consumer price inflation, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Calculations of the inflation rate are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area and the consumer price index for Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_HOT_COMMODITIES": { "label": "Chart 12: Some non-energy commodity prices have increased since the beginning of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_HOT_COMMODITIES", "description": "Commodities prices, index: January 1, 2024 = 100, daily data\n\nNote: Gold is measured in US dollars per ounce and lumber is measured in US dollars per 1,000 board feet.\n\nSources: Handy and Harman Ltd., Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Bank of Canada" }, "MPR_2026M04_IE_BUSINESS": { "label": "Chart 8: Businesses’ short-term inflation expectations have increased because of the war in the Middle East", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_IE_BUSINESS", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP. April 2026 BLP data are preliminary, with a last observation date of April 21, 2026.\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_INFOCUS_TARIFF": { "label": "Chart 26: Exports in the steel sector have declined more than exports in other sectors since US tariffs were imposed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_INFOCUS_TARIFF", "description": "Level of exports, index: December 2024 = 100, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_LABOUR_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 3: Labour market indicators suggest some slack", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_LABOUR_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each labour market indicator from the midpoint of its benchmark range. The colour is white when the indicator is close to the midpoint of its benchmark range, a varying shade of red when it is indicative of excess demand and a varying shade of blue when it is indicative of excess supply. To make the indicators more comparable, each indicator is divided by its standard deviation. The standard deviation is calculated using data from April 2015 to December 2019 for the Job-vacancies-to-unemployment ratio and from 2003 to 2019 for all other indicators. Missing historical data for job vacancies before 2026Q1 are proxied using information from Indeed. Data for job vacancies in 2026Q1 reflect the month of January only. Although most indicators point to some labour market slack, the job separation rate remains low, reflecting modest layoffs, with labour market adjustment occurring mainly through reduced hiring rather than increased separations. The benchmark ranges are established using the methodology outlined in E. Ens, K. See and C. Luu, “Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2023-7 (May 2023).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Indeed and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_NGAS_SPREADS": { "label": "Chart 11: Natural gas prices have increased in Europe and Asia but not North America", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_NGAS_SPREADS", "description": "Natural gas benchmark prices, daily data\n\nNote: European natural gas prices are converted from euros per megawatt hour to US dollars per metric million British thermal units (MMBtu). Prices in the United States are based on the Henry Hub benchmark, European prices are based on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility gas benchmark, and Asian prices are based on the Japan Korea Marker for liquefied natural gas.\n\nSources: London Stock Exchange Group, Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_OIL_PRICES": { "label": "Chart 9: Oil prices have surged as a result of the war in the Middle East", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_OIL_PRICES", "description": "Daily and monthly data\n\nSources: NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics and Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada assumptions" }, "MPR_2026M04_SCENARIO_CPI": { "label": "Chart 25: In an illustrative scenario, inflation pressures broaden beyond energy and food", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_SCENARIO_CPI", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nNote: The Bank of Canada developed an illustrative scenario in which oil prices remain at US$100 per barrel beyond the projection horizon.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_SCENARIO_GROWTH": { "label": "Chart 24: In an illustrative scenario, GDP growth is stronger over the medium term, reflecting increased domestic demand and energy exports - a. Quarter-over-quarter percentage change of GDP at annual rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_SCENARIO_GROWTH", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nNote: The Bank of Canada developed an illustrative scenario in which oil prices remain at US$100 per barrel beyond the projection horizon.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_SCENARIO_LEVEL": { "label": "Chart 24: In an illustrative scenario, GDP growth is stronger over the medium term, reflecting increased domestic demand and energy exports - b. Level of GDP, index: 2025Q1 = 100", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_SCENARIO_LEVEL", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nNote: The Bank of Canada developed an illustrative scenario in which oil prices remain at US$100 per barrel beyond the projection horizon.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M04_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2026M04 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_SQP_CAN", "description": "2026M04 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2026M04_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2026M04_TARIFF_PLACEMAT": { "label": "Chart 14: US tariffs have decreased from their peak in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_TARIFF_PLACEMAT", "description": "Estimated increases to weighted average tariff rates on imported goods since the start of 2025\n\nNote: To highlight changes reflecting the dramatic shift in US trade policy, the chart presents the marginal change in tariff rates since the start of 2025 rather than current tariff levels. Calculating tariff levels from other countries on the United States before 2025 is challenging due to data limitations.\n\nSources: United States Census Bureau and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M04_US_EMPLOYMENT": { "label": "Chart 22: US employment growth has slowed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M04_US_EMPLOYMENT", "description": "Labour market indicators, monthly data\n\nNote: Total non-farm employment is the 3-month moving average gains or losses per month in thousands.\n\nSources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M07": { "label": "July 2026 Monetary Policy Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07", "description": "Economic growth has been weak in Canada, but the economy is showing signs of improvement. Growth is expected to pick up, and inflation is projected to ease to around 2%. Uncertainty remains elevated." }, "MPR_2026M07_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2026M07 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2026M07 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2026M07_CAD": { "label": "Chart 9: The Canadian dollar has depreciated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CAD", "description": "Canadian exchange rates, index: January 2, 2025 = 100, daily data\n\nNote: CEER is the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate Index—a weighted average of bilateral exchange rates for the Canadian dollar against the currencies of Canada’s major trading partners.\n\nSources: London Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M07_CHINA_EXPORTS": { "label": "Chart 20: China’s exports have been supported by AI-related components", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CHINA_EXPORTS", "description": "Contribution to year-over-year growth in nominal exports, quarterly data\n\nNote: AI is artificial intelligence. AI-related components is composed of electronic integrated circuits and micro-assemblies. Green technology is composed of solar cells, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles. The quarterly value is an average of monthly customs data. Data for 2026Q2 are for April and May.\n\nSources: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M07_CMD_BRENT_PROFILES": { "label": "Chart 8: Oil prices have fallen but remain above pre-war levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CMD_BRENT_PROFILES", "description": "Daily data\n\nSources: NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada assumptions" }, "MPR_2026M07_CONSUMPTION_GROWTH": { "label": "Chart 13: Consumption growth averages just above 1% over the projection horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CONSUMPTION_GROWTH", "description": "Contribution to consumption growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Population is based on Statistics Canada’s quarterly estimate of residents aged 15 and older. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M07_CPI": { "label": "Chart 4: High gasoline prices lifted inflation above 3% in May", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CPI", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: CPI-trim excludes CPI components whose rates of change in a given month are located in the tails of the distribution of price changes. CPI-median is a measure of core inflation corresponding to the price change located at the 50th percentile. Both core inflation measures exclude the effect of indirect taxes.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M07_CPI_CONTRIBUTIONS": { "label": "Chart 14: CPI inflation is expected to be around 2½% in the second half of 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CPI_CONTRIBUTIONS", "description": "Contribution to year-over-year CPI inflation, quarterly data\n\nNote: Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M07_CPI_DEVIATION": { "label": "Chart 16: Inflation is expected to hover near 2% as external cost pressures and domestic slack generally offset each other", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CPI_DEVIATION", "description": "Contribution to year-over-year CPI inflation, deviation from target, quarterly data\n\nNote: Costs includes, for example, commodity prices (including oil prices), Canadian counter-tariffs and shipping costs. Other includes, for example, base-year effects from the previous GST/HST holiday; movements in gasoline refinery margins; and inflation not attributed to the identified components, including, for example, shelter inflation. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M07_CPI_ENERGY": { "label": "Chart 15: Inflation is expected to converge around 2% in 2027", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CPI_ENERGY", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M07_CPI_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 5: Below-average services inflation is helping to offset elevated non-energy goods inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CPI_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each CPI component’s year-over-year inflation rate from its historical average. The colour is white when a component’s inflation rate is close to its average and is a varying shade of blue (red) when the rate is below (above) the average. Because the historical range of inflation varies widely across CPI components, each inflation rate plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996 to 2019, except for Regulation-affected services and Other services, where available data begin in 2004 and 2008, respectively. Regulation-affected services includes prices that are affected by government regulations either directly (e.g., child care services) or indirectly (e.g., telephone services). Values in parentheses are CPI weights (in percent). Due to rounding, weights within categories may not sum to their respective totals.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M07_CPI_SHARES": { "label": "Chart 6: The share of CPI components growing above 3% has declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_CPI_SHARES", "description": "Share of CPI components with year-over-year price growth outside the 1% to 3% band, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M07_EA_PMI": { "label": "Chart 19: Activity in the euro area weakened in the first half of 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_EA_PMI", "description": "S&P Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), monthly data\n\nNote: A PMI level greater than 50 indicates growth in the sector.\n\nSource: S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Survey via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2026M07_EX": { "label": "Chart 11: Export growth is expected to pick up over the projection horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_EX", "description": "Contribution to export growth, yearly data\n\nNote: Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M07_GDP_CONTRIBUTIONS": { "label": "Chart 2: GDP growth likely rebounded in the second quarter of 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_GDP_CONTRIBUTIONS", "description": "Contribution to GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Imports and inventories includes Statistics Canada’s statistical discrepancy. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M07_GDP_FDD": { "label": "Chart 10: A pickup in exports supports GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_GDP_FDD", "description": "Contribution to GDP growth, yearly data\n\nNote: Imports and inventories includes Statistics Canada’s statistical discrepancy. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M07_GDP_GROWTH": { "label": "Chart 1: The level of GDP in the first quarter of 2026 was unchanged from a year earlier", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_GDP_GROWTH", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M07_GEG": { "label": "2026M07 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_GEG", "description": "2026M07 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2026M07_IE_BUSINESS": { "label": "Chart 7: Businesses’ short-term inflation expectations have come down from recent highs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_IE_BUSINESS", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. 1-year ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M07_IF_US_PPI": { "label": "Chart 22: Price pressures for US producers are rising", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_IF_US_PPI", "description": "Price indexes, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Producer price index—stage 1 refers to raw materials. Producer price index—stage 4 refers to nearly finished goods.\n\nSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2026M07_INPUT_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 23: War-related input costs remain elevated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_INPUT_HEATMAP", "description": "Weekly data\n\nNote: The heatmap shows the distance of each variable’s year-over-year growth rate from its historical average. For Shipping and trade disruption components, the colour is white when the variable is close to the historical average, a varying shade of red when it is below, a varying shade of blue when it is above, and grey when no data are available. For all other indicators, the colour is white when the variable is close to the historical average, a varying shade of red when it is above, a varying shade of blue when it is below, and grey when no data are available. To make the indicators more comparable, each indicator is standardized. Those measured in monetary value are converted to Canadian dollars, while the three Shipping and trade disruption components are measured in metric tons. Each variable plotted in the heatmap is standardized by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation. This standardization is conducted using data from 1996, or the oldest data point, to the most recent data point. BCNE is the Bank of Canada non-energy commodity price index.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Kalibrate Canada, US Energy Information Administration, Intercontinental Exchange, Wall Street Journal, New York Mercantile Exchange, Financial Times, Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited, International Monetary Fund, Henry Hub, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M07_LABOUR_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 3: Labour market indicators suggest conditions remain soft", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_LABOUR_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: The heatmap shows the distance of each labour market indicator from the midpoint of its benchmark range. The colour is white when the indicator is close to the midpoint of its benchmark range, a varying shade of red when it is indicative of excess demand and a varying shade of blue when it is indicative of excess supply. To make the indicators more comparable, each indicator is divided by its standard deviation. The standard deviation is calculated using data from April 2015 to December 2019 for the Job-vacancies-to unemployment ratio and from 2003 to 2019 for all other indicators. Data for the Job-vacancies-to-unemployment ratio in 2026Q2 reflect the month of April only. Although most indicators point to some labour market slack, the job separation rate remains low, reflecting modest layoffs, with labour market adjustment occurring mainly through reduced hiring rather than increased separations. The benchmark ranges are established using the methodology outlined in E. Ens, K. See and C. Luu, “Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2023-7 (May 2023).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M07_OIL_INV": { "label": "Chart 12: Investment growth in 2026 is boosted by oil and gas", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_OIL_INV", "description": "Contribution to business investment growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M07_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2026M07 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_SQP_CAN", "description": "2026M07 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2026M07_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2026M07_US_GDP": { "label": "Chart 17: Growth in the United States is supported by consumption and AI investment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_US_GDP", "description": "Contribution to GDP growth, annual data\n\nNote: AI is artificial intelligence. AI investment is defined as investment in data centre structures as well as computers and peripheral equipment.\n\nSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M07_US_PCE": { "label": "Chart 18: Increases in the price of energy as well as other cost pressures are pushing up US inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M07_US_PCE", "description": "Contribution to year-over-year growth in the US personal consumption expenditures price index, quarterly data\n\nSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10": { "label": "October 2026 Monetary Policy Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10", "description": "October 2026 Monetary Policy Report" }, "MPR_2026M10_AARGG_CAN": { "label": "2026M10 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_AARGG_CAN", "description": "2026M10 Contributions to average annual real GDP growth" }, "MPR_2026M10_ACM_DECOMP": { "label": "Chart 28: Market policy rate expectations and term premiums have affected long-term sovereign bond yields differently in different countries", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_ACM_DECOMP", "description": "Estimated contribution to changes in 10-year sovereign bond yields year to date, basis points, daily data\n\nNote: Term premiums are estimated using the methodology developed in T. Adrian, R. K. Crump and E. Moench, “Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 340 (August 2008), while using a common sample across countries.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M10_AI_CTG_IPP": { "label": "Chart 21: Consumption and AI investment support growth in the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_AI_CTG_IPP", "description": "Contribution to GDP growth, annual data\n\nNote: AI is artificial intelligence. AI business investment is defined as investment in data centre structures as well as computers and peripheral equipment. Non-AI business investment is all other business investment, including intellectual property products.\n\nSources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_BUSINESS_SHARE_OUTLOOK": { "label": "Chart 15: Business investment is expected to strengthen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_BUSINESS_SHARE_OUTLOOK", "description": "Share of nominal GDP, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_CC_PANEL_3_A": { "label": "Chart 9: Businesses expect additional cost pass-through in the next 12 months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_CC_PANEL_3_A", "description": "Cost pass-through among businesses facing larger-than-normal cost increases, monthly data\n\nNote: Already passed through shows the average share of larger-than-normal cost increases that businesses report having already passed through to customers. Expected cumulative pass-through in 12 months shows the average cumulative share businesses expect to have passed through within 12 months, including amounts already passed through. Results are based on Business Leaders’ Pulse survey responses from 35 consumer-facing businesses and from 190 respondents in the “All other businesses ” category.\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_CC_PANEL_3_B": { "label": "Chart 9: Businesses expect additional cost pass-through in the next 12 months", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_CC_PANEL_3_B", "description": "Cost pass-through among businesses facing larger-than-normal cost increases, monthly data\n\nNote: Already passed through shows the average share of larger-than-normal cost increases that businesses report having already passed through to customers. Expected cumulative pass-through in 12 months shows the average cumulative share businesses expect to have passed through within 12 months, including amounts already passed through. Results are based on Business Leaders’ Pulse survey responses from 35 consumer-facing businesses and 190 from all other businesses surveyed.\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_CHINA_ACTIVITY": { "label": "Chart 23: Strong export growth and weak consumer demand growth persist in China", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_CHINA_ACTIVITY", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nNote: Real retail sales is calculated by deflating nominal retail sales by core consumer price inflation. Real exports is calculated by dividing nominal export growth by the export price index. The level of real exports in 2026Q3 uses an estimate for the September value of the deflator in the calculation.\n\nSources: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M10_CONSUMPTION_DECOMP_OUTLOOK": { "label": "Chart 14: Consumption growth is expected to settle near 2%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_CONSUMPTION_DECOMP_OUTLOOK", "description": "Contribution to consumption growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Population is based on Statistics Canada’s quarterly estimate of residents aged 15 and older. The historical average is based on the average growth rate of consumption per person from 2010Q1 to 2019Q4. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_COSTS_CPI": { "label": "Chart 8: The cost of producing non-energy goods has increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_COSTS_CPI", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Growth in the cost of producing non-energy goods (lag of 7 months) is estimated as a weighted average of costs incurred along the supply chain, including imports, production, transportation and labour. The methodology extends the framework developed in O. Bilyk, “Understanding the resurgence of food inflation in 2025,” Sparks at Bank, Bank of Canada (February 2026) to a broader set of consumer goods. Historically, changes in these costs have tended to be reflected in consumer prices with a lag of approximately seven months; the series is therefore shown with a corresponding lag.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_CPI": { "label": "Chart 5: Inflation in CPI excluding gasoline has remained close to 2%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_CPI", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M10_CPI_DECOMP_PRODFUNC_OUTLOOK": { "label": "Chart 17: Energy costs and non-energy import costs keep inflation elevated into 2027", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_CPI_DECOMP_PRODFUNC_OUTLOOK", "description": "Contribution to the gap between year-over-year CPI inflation and the 2% target, percentage points, quarterly data\n\nNote: Contributions are estimated using Prima, which traces how changes in the costs of labour, energy and imported inputs pass through the production network to consumer prices. The estimates draw on data for producer, import and consumer prices and depend on the model’s structure and assumptions. Other includes factors such as changes in shelter inflation and capital costs. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_CPI_FEB": { "label": "Chart 6: Energy prices have driven the rise in inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_CPI_FEB", "description": "Contribution to the change in year-over-year inflation between February and September 2026, percentage points, monthly data\n\nNote: These calculations are based on a 55-component disaggregation of the CPI basket. Components directly affected by energy market developments are gasoline, operation of recreational vehicles, and fuel oil and other fuels. Travel-related components highly affected by energy market developments are travel services and intercity transportation. Examples of Other components whose contribution to CPI inflation has increased include clothing accessories, watches and jewellery, and recreational equipment and services (excluding recreational vehicles). Examples of Components whose contribution to CPI inflation has decreased include food purchased from restaurants, other food products and non-alcoholic beverages, rented accommodation and mortgage interest costs. Values in parentheses indicate the combined weight of the individual CPI components within each category.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_EA_PMI": { "label": "Chart 22: Activity in the euro area has remained resilient", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_EA_PMI", "description": "Purchasing managers’ indexes, monthly data\n\nNote: An index level greater than 50 indicates growth in the sector.\n\nSource: S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Survey via Haver Analytics" }, "MPR_2026M10_EMPLOYMENT_TARIFFS": { "label": "Chart 4: Sectors highly exposed to trade with the United States continue to lag in employment growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_EMPLOYMENT_TARIFFS", "description": "Employment level, index: December 2024 = 100, monthly data\n\nNote: A sector is considered to have high reliance on exports to the United States if at least 35% of the sector’s jobs depend on US demand. These sectors include several manufacturing and transportation subsectors as well as commodities sectors, including energy and forestry.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_ENERGY_COSTS": { "label": "Chart 29: Energy shocks reach CPI components at different speeds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_ENERGY_COSTS", "description": "Contribution of the rise in energy prices to CPI inflation relative to the January Report, percentage points, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_EXPORTS_GOODS_BAR": { "label": "Chart 2: Exports expanded despite weakness in tariff-affected products", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_EXPORTS_GOODS_BAR", "description": "Percentage change from 2024, monthly data\n\nNote: Goods exports excludes precious metals products because shipments of gold are highly volatile and often reflect inventory management. Shipments of gold do not reflect underlying production levels or demand because gold is frequently re-exported, stored or shipped for financial or custodial reasons. Products affected by tariffs does not capture the most recent tariffs announced following the breakdown in trade negotiations between Canada and the United States.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_EXPORT_DECOMP_OUTLOOK": { "label": "Chart 16: Export growth picks up after the second half of 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_EXPORT_DECOMP_OUTLOOK", "description": "Contribution to export growth, quarterly data\n\nNote: The historical average is based on the average contribution of each component of export growth from 2010Q1 to 2019Q4. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_FLAT_OIL_SCENARIO": { "label": "Chart 30: Expected persistence of high energy prices adds to inflation today", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_FLAT_OIL_SCENARIO", "description": "CPI inflation, year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_GDP_DECOMP_FDD": { "label": "Chart 1: GDP grew strongly in the second quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_GDP_DECOMP_FDD", "description": "Contribution to GDP growth, annualized, quarterly data\n\nNote: Imports and inventories includes Statistics Canada’s statistical discrepancy. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "MPR_2026M10_GDP_DECOMP_OUTLOOK": { "label": "Chart 13: GDP growth is projected to rise", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_GDP_DECOMP_OUTLOOK", "description": "Contribution to GDP growth, yearly data\n\nNote: Imports and inventories includes Statistics Canada’s statistical discrepancy. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_GEG": { "label": "2026M10 Projection for global economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_GEG", "description": "2026M10 Projection for global economic growth" }, "MPR_2026M10_GLOBAL_INFLATION": { "label": "Chart 19: Inflation is rising because of disruptions to global energy supply", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_GLOBAL_INFLATION", "description": "Total inflation, year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nNote: Calculations of the inflation rate are based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for the euro area and the consumer price indexes for Canada and the United States.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Eurostat via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_IE_BUSINESS": { "label": "Chart 10: Businesses anticipate higher inflation in the near term", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_IE_BUSINESS", "description": "Quarterly and monthly data\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; BLP is the Business Leaders’ Pulse. 1-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the next 12 months. 2-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 12 to 24 months from now. 5-year-ahead refers to inflation expectations for the period 48 to 60 months from now. This question was not asked in the January or March 2022 BLP.\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_INCOME_GROUPS": { "label": "Chart 20: Spending disparities have been increasing across US households", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_INCOME_GROUPS", "description": "Index: 2023Q1 = 100, seasonally adjusted, quarterly data\n\nSources: Numerator and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_INFLATION_DECOMP_OUTLOOK": { "label": "Chart 18: High energy prices and pass-through keep inflation elevated in 2027", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_INFLATION_DECOMP_OUTLOOK", "description": "Contribution to year-over-year CPI inflation, quarterly data\n\nNote: The historical reference is based on the average contribution of each component to CPI inflation from August 1999 to December 2019, when CPI inflation averaged close to 2%. Numbers may not sum to their respective totals due to rounding.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "MPR_2026M10_LABOUR_HEATMAP": { "label": "Chart 3: Labour market indicators suggest continued slack", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_LABOUR_HEATMAP", "description": "Note: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. The heatmap shows the distance of each labour market indicator from the midpoint of its benchmark range. The colour is white when the indicator is close to the midpoint of its benchmark range, a varying shade of red when it is indicative of excess demand and a varying shade of blue when it is indicative of excess supply. To make the indicators more comparable, each indicator is divided by its standard deviation. The standard deviation is calculated using data from April 2015 to December 2019 for the Job-vacancies-to unemployment ratio and from 2003 to 2019 for all other indicators. Data for the Job-vacancies-to-unemployment ratio in 2026Q3 reflect the month of July only. Although most indicators point to some labour market slack, the job separation rate remains low, reflecting modest layoffs, with labour market adjustment occurring mainly through reduced hiring rather than increased separations. The benchmark ranges are established using the methodology outlined in E. Ens, K. See and C. Luu, “Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2023-7 (May 2023).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_MULTIPLE_YIELDS": { "label": "Chart 27: Yields on 10-year sovereign bonds are at or near their highest levels in more than a decade", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_MULTIPLE_YIELDS", "description": "Daily data\n\nSource: London Stock Exchange Group" }, "MPR_2026M10_OIL_PROFILE": { "label": "Chart 11: The oil price futures curve has shifted up substantially", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_OIL_PROFILE", "description": "Monthly and daily data\n\nSources: NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada assumptions" }, "MPR_2026M10_SCATTERPLOT": { "label": "Chart 25: Recent prices for refined products are significantly higher than what elevated crude oil prices alone would suggest", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_SCATTERPLOT", "description": "Note: The refined products composite is the weighted average of wholesale prices of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.\n\nSources: US Energy Information Administration, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_SHARE_1_3": { "label": "Chart 7: The share of CPI components growing at or above 3% has returned close to its historical average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_SHARE_1_3", "description": "Share of CPI components with year-over-year price growth outside the 1% to 3% band, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_SPREAD_BRENT": { "label": "Chart 26: Product and crude oil futures prices point to elevated margins through 2027", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_SPREAD_BRENT", "description": "Difference between fuel and Brent futures prices, monthly data\n\nSources: London Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "MPR_2026M10_SQP_CAN": { "label": "2026M10 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_SQP_CAN", "description": "2026M10 Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2026M10_SQP_CAN_CHART": { "label": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_SQP_CAN_CHART", "description": "Summary of the quarterly projection for Canada" }, "MPR_2026M10_USCAD_YIELDS": { "label": "Chart 12: Yields on 10-year government bonds in Canada have risen but less than those in the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/MPR_2026M10_USCAD_YIELDS", "description": "Daily data\n\nSource: London Stock Exchange Group" }, "OFFICIAL_INT_RES": { "label": "Official International Reserves", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/OFFICIAL_INT_RES", "description": "Millions in U.S. dollars" }, "OR": { "label": "Overnight Repo (OR)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/OR", "description": "Overnight Repo (OR)" }, "ORR": { "label": "Overnight Reverse Repo (ORR)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/ORR", "description": "Overnight Reverse Repo (ORR)" }, "OR_RESULTS": { "label": "Overnight Repo (OR) - Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/OR_RESULTS", "description": "Overnight Repo (OR)" }, "OR_UPCOMING": { "label": "Overnight Repo (OR) - Upcoming", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/OR_UPCOMING", "description": "Overnight Repo (OR) - Upcoming" }, "PBPP_OPERATION": { "label": "Provincial Bond Purchase Program", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PBPP_OPERATION", "description": "Provincial Bond Purchase Program" }, "PBPP_REPORTING": { "label": "Reporting", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PBPP_REPORTING", "description": "Reporting" }, "PBPP_TRANSACTION_DATA": { "label": "Provincial Bond Purchase Program, transaction level data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PBPP_TRANSACTION_DATA", "description": "Provincial Bond Purchase Program, transaction level data" }, "PMMP_TRANSACTION_DATA": { "label": "Provincial Money Market Purchase Program, transaction level data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PMMP_TRANSACTION_DATA", "description": "Provincial Money Market Purchase Program, transaction level data" }, "PUBLICSURVEY_AWARENESS": { "label": "Awareness", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PUBLICSURVEY_AWARENESS", "description": "Respondents who correctly identified the Bank’s responsibilities" }, "PUBLICSURVEY_SAFETY": { "label": "Safety and stability", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PUBLICSURVEY_SAFETY", "description": "Respondents who agreed with these statements" }, "PUBLICSURVEY_TRUST_ECONOMY": { "label": "Trust – Successful management of the economy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PUBLICSURVEY_TRUST_ECONOMY", "description": "Levels of trust in the Bank to contribute to successful management of the economy" }, "PUBLICSURVEY_TRUST_FINANCIALSYSTEM": { "label": "Trust – Ensure financial system works well", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PUBLICSURVEY_TRUST_FINANCIALSYSTEM", "description": "Levels of trust in the Bank to ensure financial system works well" }, "PUBLICSURVEY_TRUST_INFLATION": { "label": "Trust – Maintain low and stable inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PUBLICSURVEY_TRUST_INFLATION", "description": "Levels of trust in the Bank to maintain low and stable inflation" }, "PUBLICSURVEY_TRUST_OVERALL": { "label": "Trust – Overall", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PUBLICSURVEY_TRUST_OVERALL", "description": "Levels of trust in the Bank as an institution" }, "PUBLICSURVEY_UNDERSTANDING": { "label": "Understanding", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/PUBLICSURVEY_UNDERSTANDING", "description": "Understanding" }, "QFR": { "label": "Quarterly Financial Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/QFR", "description": "Quarterly Financial Report" }, "QFR_2021": { "label": "Quarterly Financial Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/QFR_2021", "description": "Quarterly Financial Report" }, "QFR_2021_C1": { "label": "Asset profile", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/QFR_2021_C1", "description": "Asset profile" }, "QFR_2021_C2": { "label": "Liability profile", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/QFR_2021_C2", "description": "Liability profile" }, "QFR_ANNUALLY": { "label": "Annual Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/QFR_ANNUALLY", "description": "Annual Report" }, "QFR_ANNUALLY_C1": { "label": "Outstanding domestic marketable debt rose sharply starting in March 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/QFR_ANNUALLY_C1", "description": "Bank of Canada, Department of Finance Canada and Statistics Canada" }, "QFR_ASSETS": { "label": "Total Assets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/QFR_ASSETS", "description": "Total Assets" }, "QFR_LIABILITIES": { "label": "Total Liabilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/QFR_LIABILITIES", "description": "Total Liabilities" }, "RRB_INDEX_RATIO": { "label": "Real Return Bonds - Index ratios", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/RRB_INDEX_RATIO", "description": "Real Return Bonds - Index ratios" }, "SABA_BILY20260128": { "label": "Understanding the resurgence of food inflation in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BILY20260128", "description": "Inflation in grocery prices picked up in 2025, largely due to rising cost pressures that emerged in late 2024 and worked their way through supply chains. Compared with the cost pressures experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, these have been more limited, narrower in scope and more commonly tied to imported items." }, "SABA_BILY20260128_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Domestic costs account for nearly two-thirds of grocery prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BILY20260128_C1", "description": "Share of food prices (excluding fruits and vegetables), by cost category\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_BILY20260128_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Food inflation tracks previous  increases in costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BILY20260128_C2", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nPrices and costs for fruits and vegetables are excluded from both measures because of their volatile nature.\n\nStatistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_BILY20260128_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Pressures from import costs contributed the most to food inflation in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BILY20260128_C3", "description": "Average contribution to annual changes in food costs, excluding fruits and vegetables, percentage points\n\nThe contributions of the various cost components are moved  ahead by two quarters.\n\nStatistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_BILY20260224": { "label": "Assessing the Buy Canadian movement one year later", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BILY20260224", "description": "Canada and the United States have both benefited from decades of free trade. But US tariffs significantly changed this relationship, and Canadians reacted. In our research, we explore the Buy Canadian sentiment one year after it emerged and measure how much it has shifted travel patterns and spending in grocery stores." }, "SABA_BILY20260224_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The number of Canadians travelling to the United States declined sharply in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BILY20260224_C1", "description": "Number of Canadians (millions) returning from international destinations, seasonally adjusted\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_BILY20260224_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Since March 2025, Canadians have been spending proportionally more on Canadian food", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BILY20260224_C2", "description": "Share of monthly food spending, seasonally adjusted\n\nSources: NielsenIQ, GS1 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_BILY20260224_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Consumer preferences continue to shift toward buying Canadian goods and services", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BILY20260224_C3", "description": "Share of respondents, by spending plans\n\nNote: Respondents in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations were asked, "Right now, are you changing your spending plans in Canada or the United States in response to uncertainty about trade relationships or tariffs between Canada and the United States?" The questions about vacationing in Canada or the United States have been asked only since 2025Q2.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "SABA_BROU20260810": { "label": "Sparks at Bank - Early signs of AI-driven adjustments in Canada’s labour market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BROU20260810", "description": "AI has the potential to reshape the labour market by automating some tasks for many workers. Even though evidence of a significant impact on the labour market remains limited, AI appears to be making it harder for some Canadians to find work in occupations that are most exposed to it." }, "SABA_BROU20260810_C1": { "label": "Young workers are more often in jobs with high exposure to artificial intelligence than their older counterparts", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_BROU20260810_C1", "description": "Subtitle\tShare of workers in occupations with varied exposure to artificial intelligence, by age\n\nThe chart shows the average share of workers in 2025 in occupations with low, medium and high exposure to artificial intelligence (AI). Workers in the bottom 25th percentile of occupations are considered to have low exposure (exposure scores up to 0.17). Workers in the 75th and above percentile of occupations are considered to have high exposure (exposure scores of 0.34 and higher).\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CAVA20260507": { "label": "How Canada’s counter-tariffs impacted consumer prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CAVA20260507", "description": "For six months in 2025, Canada imposed counter tariffs on a wide range of goods from the United States. This short and well defined episode offers a unique opportunity to examine how Canadian retailers adjust prices in response to tariffs—and how retailers’ expectations and transparency with consumers affect pricing decisions." }, "SABA_CAVA20260507_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Retail prices for affected goods rose and fell with the introduction and lifting of counter-tariffs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CAVA20260507_C1", "description": "Estimated relative change in prices for goods subject to Canadian counter-tariffs\n\nNote: The estimated relative change in prices is measured relative to price changes in the control group and compared with prices on March 3, 2025. The control group consists of goods produced domestically and in non-tariffed categories. Canada imposed counter-tariffs on March 4, 2025; the United States announced global tariffs on April 2, 2025. Most Canadian counter-tariffs were lifted on September 1, 2025.\n\nSources: PriceStats and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CAVA20260507_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Prices at an appliance retailer jumped after signals that the trade conflict would last longer", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CAVA20260507_C2", "description": "Estimated relative change in prices for goods subject to Canadian counter-tariffs at an appliance retailer\n\nNote: The estimated relative change in prices is measured relative to price changes in the control group and compared with prices on March 3, 2025. The control group consists of goods produced domestically and in non-tariffed categories. Canada imposed counter-tariffs on March 4, 2025; the United States announced global tariffs on April 2, 2025. Most Canadian counter-tariffs were lifted on September 1, 2025.\n\nSources: PriceStats and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CAVA20260507_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Retailers used tariff banners to help explain their price increases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CAVA20260507_C3", "description": "Estimated relative change in prices for goods subject to Canadian counter-tariffs\n\nNote: The estimated relative change in prices is measured relative to price changes in the control group and compared with prices on March 3, 2025. The control group consists of goods produced domestically and in non-tariffed categories. Canada imposed counter-tariffs on March 4, 2025; the United States announced global tariffs on April 2, 2025. Most Canadian counter-tariffs were lifted on September 1, 2025.\n\nSources: PriceStats and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CHAN20260810": { "label": "Sparks at Bank - Private credit in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CHAN20260810", "description": "Private credit—business loans made by non-bank lenders—has expanded rapidly worldwide, but for Canadian businesses, it remains a stable and relatively limited source of funding. Canadian asset managers, however, are actively participating in private credit globally, creating exposures that could matter for financial stability in Canada." }, "SABA_CHAN20260810_C1": { "label": "Private credit plays a limited role in funding Canadian businesses", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CHAN20260810_C1", "description": "Subtitle\tComposition of total credit liabilities of private non-financial corporations, by source of funding\n\nLoans from non-banks includes private credit; debt securities includes some private credit instruments, such as life insurers' private placements.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CHAN20260810_C2": { "label": "Canadian investment funds have increased their participation in private credit", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CHAN20260810_C2", "description": "Private credit holdings of Canadian investment funds\n\nOntario Securities Commission Investment Fund Survey and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CHAN20260810_C3": { "label": "The exposure of large Canadian banks to private credit managers has grown over time but remains small", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CHAN20260810_C3", "description": "Loans of large Canadian banks to large alternative asset managers that specialize in private credit\n\nValues are as of the end of the first fiscal quarter (January 31) of each year. Private credit managers include Blackstone Inc., KKR & Co. Inc., Apollo Global Management Inc., Ares Management Corp., Carlyle Group Inc., Oaktree Capital Management LP and Blue Owl Capital Inc.\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CHAW20260819": { "label": "Sparks at Bank - Canadian businesses’ use of AI: What the evidence shows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CHAW20260819", "description": "As businesses worldwide are adopting artificial intelligence to boost productivity, little has been known about how businesses in Canada are using it. Survey results from the Bank of Canada show that AI adoption remains at an early stage for many Canadian businesses. As well, businesses expect AI to affect capital spending and employment, but only gradually." }, "SABA_CHAW20260819_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Use of artificial intelligence by Canadian businesses remains limited", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CHAW20260819_C1", "description": "Use of artificial intelligence (AI) in core business operations (share of firms)\n\nResponses are to the question in the Business Leaders’ Pulse that asked, “To what extent does your firm use artificial intelligence (AI) in producing goods or delivering services?” Low use corresponds to the survey response of “Very infrequent use, in use experimentally or in pilot projects.”\n\nBank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CHAW20260819_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Firms anticipate artificial intelligence will have a positive impact on capital spending over the medium term", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CHAW20260819_C2", "description": "Expected impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on capital spending (share of firms that provided a response)\n\nResponses are to the question in the Business Leaders’ Pulse that asked, “How do you expect this [usage of AI] to affect the capital expenditure of your firm over the next 12 months and the next 3 years?” A large positive impact corresponds to an increase of 10% or more; a small positive impact corresponds to an increase of less than 10%; a small negative impact corresponds to a decrease of less than 10%; and a large negative impact corresponds to a decrease of 10% or more. Shares may not sum to 100 due to rounding.\n\nBank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_CHAW20260819_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Most firms expect artificial intelligence to have limited impact on employment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_CHAW20260819_C3", "description": "Expected impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment (share of firms that provided a response)sc\n\nResponses are to the question in the Business Leaders’ Pulse that asked, “How do you expect this to affect the number of employees of your firm over the next 12 months and the next 3 years?” A large positive impact corresponds to an increase of 5% or more; a small positive impact corresponds to an increase of less than 5%; a small negative impact corresponds to a decrease of less than 5%; and a large negative impact corresponds to a decrease of 5% or more. Shares may not sum to 100 due to rounding.\n\nBank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_DAST20260202": { "label": "The trade conflict hasn’t derailed supply chains. Here’s why.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_DAST20260202", "description": "Global supply chains have been working well despite abrupt shifts in US trade policy and rising global tensions in 2025. A big reason for this is that companies have improved how goods are shipped and warehoused to keep products flowing around the world. But these supply chains could be tested even more if the trade conflict worsens." }, "SABA_DAST20260202_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Shipping costs for containers are near their historical averages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_DAST20260202_C1", "description": "Costs per 40-foot container, by trade route" }, "SABA_DAST20260202_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The number of ultra-large container ships in use has been rising for a decade", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_DAST20260202_C2", "description": "Shares of the global fleet of container ships, by size of container ships" }, "SABA_DAST20260202_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Since early 2024, container ships have been rerouted from the Suez Canal to the longer Cape of Good Hope trade route", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_DAST20260202_C3", "description": "Trade volume by trade route, 30-day moving average" }, "SABA_DUNB20260430": { "label": "Canada’s shifting position in global maritime trade", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_DUNB20260430", "description": "Canada’s economic prosperity depends on trade. But global maritime shipping networks have been reshaped in ways that have reduced Canada’s relative connectivity and carrying capacity. This less-central role for the country could mean greater exposure to supply chain disruptions that could increase the cost of doing business." }, "SABA_DUNB20260430_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1: Canadian and US ports have become considerably less central in global shipping networks than other ports", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_DUNB20260430_C1A", "description": "a. Top 10 most-connected ports in the world, 2016" }, "SABA_DUNB20260430_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1: Canadian and US ports have become considerably less central in global shipping networks than other ports", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_DUNB20260430_C1B", "description": "Normalized degree centrality, 2016 and 2023, by major port\n\nexactEarth Ltd. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_DUNB20260430_M1": { "label": "Figure 1: The overall potential capacity of ships moving through Canadian and US ports has declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_DUNB20260430_M1", "description": "Change in total annual capacity of ships moving through ports, 2016 and 2023\n\nChange in total annual capacity is calculated for each country coloured on the map. The change between 2016 and 2023 is reported as either an increase or decrease in each country’s overall deadweight tonnage of trade with any of the 20 countries with the highest overall deadweight tonnage for those same years.\n\nLondon Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_ELLW20261013": { "label": "Sparks at Bank - Forecasting oil prices: What works best and when", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_ELLW20261013", "description": "Oil price forecasts help central banks assess risks to inflation and economic activity. Forecasters often rely on the latest price of oil, on futures markets or on economic models. The best approach depends on how far ahead forecasters are looking and whether they need only a forecast or also an explanation of what’s behind it." }, "SABA_ELLW20261013_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Compared with latest-price forecasts, futures-price forecasts become more accurate at longer horizons", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_ELLW20261013_C1", "description": "Measures of how well futures oil prices predict monthly WTI prices, 1992–2021\n\nWTI is West Texas Intermediate. Forecast accuracy measures the improvement in percentage points in mean squared prediction error of nominal oil price futures relative to a forecast based on the latest price. Positive values indicate an improvement. The success ratio measures the share of forecasts that correctly predict the direction of price changes. Values above 50% indicate forecasts predict price movements more accurately than a random guess.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "SABA_ELLW20261013_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Longer-dated oil futures have become more informative as trading has expanded", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_ELLW20261013_C2", "description": "Size of oil futures market and forecast accuracy for a 24-month-ahead contract\n\nForecast accuracy measures the improvement in percentage points in mean squared prediction error of nominal oil price futures relative to a forecast based on the latest price. Forecast performance is calculated using an expanding sample. Positive values or values increasing over time indicate an improvement. Outstanding contracts measures the total number of oil futures contracts―both on Brent and West Texas Intermediate―that remain open, providing an indication of the size of the futures market.\n\nBloomberg L.P. and Bank of Canada" }, "SABA_ELLW20261013_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Different economic models have different forecasting strengths", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_ELLW20261013_C3", "description": "Measures of how well models predict monthly WTI prices, 1992–2021\n\nWTI is West Texas Intermediate. VAR is vector autoregressive model. Forecast accuracy measures the improvement in percentage points in mean squared prediction error of the most accurate VAR relative to a forecast based on the latest price. Positive values indicate an improvement. The success ratio measures the share of forecasts that correctly predict the direction of price changes. Values above 50% indicate forecasts predict price movements more accurately than a random guess.\n\nBank of Canada" }, "SABA_FUDU20260618": { "label": "How Indigenous-owned firms finance their operations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_FUDU20260618", "description": "Businesses that can’t easily access credit experience slower growth. Indigenous-owned firms are less likely than other firms in Canada to use conventional lending products—like loans or lines of credit from banks. We look at why Indigenous-owned businesses may face barriers to accessing credit." }, "SABA_FUDU20260618_C1": { "label": "Indigenous-owned firms rely much less on conventional lenders than non-Indigenous-owned firms of a similar size do", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_FUDU20260618_C1", "description": "Main source(s) of financing, by firm type (share of firms)\n\nResults for Indigenous-owned firms are from the 2021 Survey of Indigenous-Owned Firms, which the Bank of Canada delivered with the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business and Global Affairs Canada. Respondents in this survey could select more than one option. Results for All Canadian small firms are from the Bank of Canada's 2018–19 experimental electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nBank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_FUDU20260618_C2": { "label": "Reliance on conventional bank lending is particularly uncommon for Inuit-owned firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_FUDU20260618_C2", "description": "Share of Indigenous-owned firms reporting loans or lines of credit from conventional financial institutions or equity as their main source of financing, by ownership type\n\nResults are from the 2021 Survey of Indigenous-Owned Firms, which the Bank of Canada delivered with the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business and Global Affairs Canada.\n\nBank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_FUDU20260618_C3": { "label": "Access to credit is a more common barrier to growth for Indigenous-owned exporting firms than for other small exporters", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_FUDU20260618_C3", "description": "Share of exporting firms citing a lack of financing or cash flow as a major barrier to exporting, by firm type\n\nResults for Indigenous-owned exporting firms are from the 2021 Survey of Indigenous-Owned Firms, which the Bank of Canada delivered with the Canadian Council for Indigenous Business and Global Affairs Canada. Results for All Canadian small and medium-sized exporting firms are from Statistics Canada's 2020 Survey on Financing and Growth of Small and Medium Enterprises. Exporters represent 7.2% of firms in the Survey of Indigenous-Owned Firms compared with 12.1% of all Canadian small and medium-sized firms.\n\nStatistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_GALA20260303": { "label": "Women in economics: What data from top universities reveal about gender equity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_GALA20260303", "description": "In the field of economics, on average, women tend to produce fewer research articles and be cited less often than men. But this appears to be changing. A newly compiled dataset about scholars at top universities around the world helps us identify where individual gender gaps exist." }, "SABA_GALA20260303_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The average woman economist produces fewer articles and is cited less often than the average male economist", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_GALA20260303_C1", "description": "Average publication statistics, per person\n\nNote: Articles are Google Scholar–indexed research outputs, including journal articles, working papers and technical reports. Both number of articles and citations per article include only those outputs with at least 10 citations.\n\nSources: Google Scholar and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_GALA20260303_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The gender gap in the number of articles produced per person is widest among senior faculty members", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_GALA20260303_C2", "description": "Average number of articles produced, per person\n\nNote: The values in this chart represent the predicted research output for men and women at each academic rank, controlling for various characteristics such as special titles (e.g., distinguished professor) and country-specific factors. Only articles with at least 10 citations are included.\n\nSources: Google Scholar and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_GALA20260303_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Articles produced by economic scholars of each gender are cited at similar rates across career stages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_GALA20260303_C3", "description": "Average number of citations received per article produced\n\nNote: The values in this chart represent the predicted number of citations per article produced for men and women at each academic rank, controlling for various characteristics such as special titles (e.g., distinguished professor) and country-specific factors. Only articles with at least 10 citations are included.\n\nSources: Google Scholar and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_KAUR20260702": { "label": "Sparks at Bank - Assessing risks to oil prices through options markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_KAUR20260702", "description": "After the war in the Middle East began, futures markets hinted at how long oil prices could stay above their pre-war levels. Options on those futures further reveal how investors see the range and balance of risks around future oil prices—which helps central banks assess risks to inflation." }, "SABA_KAUR20260702_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Short-term expectations about future oil prices changed significantly after the start of the war in the Middle East", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_KAUR20260702_C1", "description": "Options-implied density distribution for 1-month-ahead Brent futures prices, in US dollars\n\nLondon Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_KAUR20260702_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The distribution of longer-term oil price futures changed marginally after the start of the war in the Middle East", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_KAUR20260702_C2", "description": "Options-implied density distribution for 1-year-ahead Brent futures prices, in US dollars\n\nLondon Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_KAUR20260702_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Government bond yields have risen alongside perceived risks to oil prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_KAUR20260702_C3", "description": "Cumulative change since February 27, 2026\n\nVariance is calculated as the 90th percentile minus the 10th percentile of the density distribution.\n\nLondon Stock Exchange Group and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_KRYV20260908": { "label": "Sparks at Bank - When supply shocks make inflation harder to control", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_KRYV20260908", "description": "Supply disruptions were a key driver of inflation during the pandemic. If such disruptions occur more often in the future, they could lead to more frequent and persistent periods of high inflation. Central banks could then find it harder to bring inflation back to target while supporting economic activity." }, "SABA_KRYV20260908_C1": { "label": "Demand forces acting on inflation tend to decline significantly during recessions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_KRYV20260908_C1", "description": "Contributions of supply and demand forces to year-over-year total PCE inflation\n\nPCE is personal consumption expenditure. Recession dates are determined by the C.D. Howe Institute Business Cycle Council.\n\nStatistics Canada, C.D. Howe Institute and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_KRYV20260908_C2": { "label": "Supply forces accounted for the largest share of the rise in inflation during the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_KRYV20260908_C2", "description": "Contributions of supply and demand forces to year-over-year total PCE inflation\n\nPCE is personal consumption expenditure.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_LI20260409": { "label": "When parents co-sign a mortgage to help their adult children buy their first home", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_LI20260409", "description": "Rising housing costs are leading to an increasing share of first-time homebuyers seeking financial support from their parents. Specifically, Canada has experienced a noticeable rise in instances of parents co-signing mortgages with their adult children. This practice allows buyers to purchase more expensive homes—but it can also make both parties vulnerable to financial disruptions." }, "SABA_LI20260409_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Parental co-signing of mortgages has become much more common over the past two decades", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_LI20260409_C1", "description": "Share of mortgages for first-time homebuyers that are co-signed by a parent\n\nCities listed in this chart represent census metropolitan areas. To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank of Canada. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nTransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_LI20260409_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Mortgage co-signing by parents significantly increases purchasing power for first-time homebuyers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_LI20260409_C2", "description": "House prices for first-time homebuyers with a mortgage co-signed by their parents (2022Q4 average)\n\nThis chart focuses on first‑time homebuyers who would not have qualified for their current mortgage without parental co-signing. To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank of Canada. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses." }, "SABA_LI20260409_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Credit delinquency rates rise with reliance on extra purchasing power from co-signing mortgages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_LI20260409_C3", "description": "Average increase in borrower delinquency rates after obtaining a mortgage, by utilization rate, 2015–22" }, "SABA_STRA20260128": { "label": "What’s behind the slowdown in Toronto’s condo market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_STRA20260128", "description": "Strong population growth, low interest rates and robust investor demand drove an expansion in Toronto’s condo market over the past decade. But times have changed. Toronto’s condos are no longer providing substantial returns for short-term investors because population growth has eased and interest rates have risen. This is challenging the business models of condo builders." }, "SABA_STRA20260128_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Condo starts in Toronto declined sharply in 2024 and 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_STRA20260128_C1", "description": "Number of condo housing starts in Toronto, 12-month moving average, annualized, monthly data\n\nCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_STRA20260128_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Condos bought before their construction are no longer turning a profit", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_STRA20260128_C2", "description": "Average Toronto condo price per square foot before and after building completion, by date of completion\n\nThe presale purchase price and resale price are measured three years before and two quarters after building completion, respectively.\n\nUrbanation and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_STRA20260128_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Condo presales in Toronto have come to a near halt", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_STRA20260128_C3", "description": "Number of condo presales in Toronto, 4-quarter moving average, annualized, quarterly data\n\nUrbanation and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_STRA20260927": { "label": "Why asking rents have surged in Canada since 2021", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_STRA20260927", "description": "Renting has become significantly more expensive in Canada in recent years. Asking rents—those advertised for vacant units—rose sharply as demand grew faster than supply. As tenants move and sign new leases, changes in asking rents gradually spread to the average rents captured in the consumer price index." }, "SABA_STRA20260927_C1": { "label": "Strong population growth helped push up asking rents", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_STRA20260927_C1", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year growth in asking rents for one-bedroom apartments, weighted average of nine Canadian cities\n\nContributions are estimated using a panel regression of year-over-year growth in asking rents in nine census metropolitan areas: Calgary, Edmonton, Halifax, Montréal, Ottawa, Québec, Toronto, Vancouver and Winnipeg. The bars show the estimated contribution of each factor to growth in Canadian asking rents.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_STRA20260927_C2": { "label": "The surge in asking rents differed significantly across Canadian cities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_STRA20260927_C2", "description": "Growth in average asking rents for one-bedroom apartments\n\nContributions are estimated using a panel regression of year-over-year growth in asking rents in nine census metropolitan areas: Calgary, Edmonton, Halifax, Montréal, Ottawa, Québec, Toronto, Vancouver and Winnipeg. The bars show the estimated contribution of each factor to growth in Canadian asking rents.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_STRA20260927_C3": { "label": "Movements in asking rents are only gradually and partially reflected in CPI-rent inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_STRA20260927_C3", "description": "Year-over-year growth, Canada\n\nAsking rents is the average of asking rents across all census metropolitan areas. CPI-rent is the rent component of the consumer price index.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_TERA20260921": { "label": "Sparks at Bank - The budget pressures faced by different households since 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_TERA20260921", "description": "Although inflation has come down from pandemic highs, many households are still feeling the effects of higher prices. Between 2020 and 2025, younger and lower‑income households generally saw spending outpace income gains while older and higher-income households fared better. Together, these differing experiences meant income gains for the average household kept up with higher spending." }, "SABA_TERA20260921_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Since 2020, consumer prices have risen above their pre-pandemic trends", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_TERA20260921_C1", "description": "Consumer prices, index: 2019 = 100\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_TERA20260921_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Disposable income caught up with additional spending in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_TERA20260921_C2", "description": "Household disposable income and spending relative to pre-pandemic trends for the average Canadian household\n\nThe income-spending gap is calculated by subtracting additional spending from additional income, both of which are measured relative to their pre-pandemic trends. Negative (positive) values of the gap indicate households are worse (better) off on average because additional income does not offset (more than offsets) additional spending.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_TROS20260323": { "label": "The rise in the Canadian term premium in a global context", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_TROS20260323", "description": "In Canada and abroad, yields on long-term government bonds have stayed high even as policy interest rates have fallen. This is due to rising term premiums―the extra compensation investors demand for holding these bonds. A key factor driving higher term premiums is global concerns about the ability of markets to absorb substantial amounts of government debt." }, "SABA_TROS20260323_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Interest rates for long-term government bonds remained above policy interest rates in 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_TROS20260323_C1", "description": "Average nominal interest rates across advanced economies\n\nNote: Interest rates are aggregated across advanced economies using gross domestic product weights at purchasing power parity. Most long-term interest rates are for 10-year government bonds. Advanced economies include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\n\nSources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas via Haver Analytics" }, "SABA_TROS20260323_C2A": { "label": "Chart 2: The term premium in Canada has risen to levels not seen in over a decade - a. Adrian, Crump and Moench model", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_TROS20260323_C2A", "description": "Estimated contributions to long-term bond yields\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_TROS20260323_C2B": { "label": "Chart 2: The term premium in Canada has risen to levels not seen in over a decade - b. Shadow Rate model", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_TROS20260323_C2B", "description": "Estimated contributions to long-term bond yields\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_TROS20260323_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: The Canadian term premium has moved in tandem with those of other advanced economies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_TROS20260323_C3", "description": "Estimated term premium for yields on 10-year government bonds\n\nNote: In this chart, advanced economies include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States. The term premium for this grouping is the average of all these economies. All term premiums are estimated using the Adrian, Crump and Moench model with data from January 1995 to March 2026.\n\nSources: LSEG Workspace and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_UTHE20260129": { "label": "Hedge funds and their trading strategies in the Government of Canada bond market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_UTHE20260129", "description": "Hedge funds are active in Canadian government bond markets and help improve market efficiency. But their trading strategies are not well understood. We offer insights into the range of strategies hedge funds use beyond the more commonly known cash-futures basis trade. We also explore the concentration of trading activity among a few large funds." }, "SABA_UTHE20260129_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Hedge funds’ trading strategies are relatively diverse", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_UTHE20260129_C1", "description": "Share of hedge fund trading volume, by strategy\n\nEach share is the 2020–25 average by strategy type in the Government of Canada bond market. Trading strategies that involve longer-duration bonds receive a higher weight.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_UTHE20260129_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: A handful of firms account for most trading activity of hedge funds in the market for Government of Canada bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_UTHE20260129_C2", "description": "Contribution to trading volume, by strategy type\n\nFirms managing hedge funds are grouped by size of trade volume. Firms that trade longer-duration bonds receive a higher weight. Each firm’s contribution is its 2020–25 average share of trading volume of Government of Canada bonds used in each strategy.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_WANG20260330": { "label": "Measuring how financial sector economists respond to the tone of Bank of Canada communications", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_WANG20260330", "description": "The words central banks use to explain policy decisions matter. They can, in some cases, affect financial markets just like changes in policy interest rates do. For this reason, we built a tool to track the tone of the Bank of Canada’s policy communications and assess how tone affects market perceptions." }, "SABA_WANG20260330_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The tone score for Bank of Canada press releases mirrors changes in the policy interest rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_WANG20260330_C1", "description": "Policy tone score and change in policy interest rate\n\nBank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_WANG20260330_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Dealers adjust the tone of their commentaries after Bank of Canada policy announcements", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_WANG20260330_C2", "description": "Difference in tone score, Bank press releases and dealer commentaries\n\nEach dot represents a policy announcement between September 2020 and December 2025. Dealer tone is averaged across dealers before and after each announcement. The more positive the value, the more hawkish the tone; the more negative the value, the more dovish the tone. Quadrant 1 shows a hawkish shift in dealers’ tone when the Bank’s tone is more hawkish than dealers’ pre-announcement tone. Quadrant 2 shows a hawkish shift in dealers’ tone when the Bank’s tone is more dovish than dealers’ pre-announcement tone. Quadrant 3 shows a dovish shift when the Bank’s tone is more dovish than dealers’ pre-announcement tone. Quadrant 4 shows a dovish shift when the Bank’s tone is more hawkish than dealers’ pre-announcement tone.\n\nBank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_ZHAO20260206": { "label": "What typically happens before households fall behind on mortgage payments?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_ZHAO20260206", "description": "Canadians usually pay their mortgages on time. But some fall behind on payments. Before they do, homeowners often increase their use of credit cards and lines of credit—and then can’t keep up on those payments." }, "SABA_ZHAO20260206_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Households increasingly rely on credit about two years before missing a mortgage payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_ZHAO20260206_C1", "description": "Rates of credit use, by type of consumer credit product\n\nNote: The credit usage rate is calculated by dividing the balance owing by the authorized credit limit. To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank of Canada. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SABA_ZHAO20260206_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Households increasingly become late on credit payments about one to two years before missing a mortgage payment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SABA_ZHAO20260206_C2", "description": "Share of consumer credit products with payments that are late by at least 30 days\n\nNote: To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank of Canada. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN-2017-2": { "label": "Staff Analytical Note 2017-2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN-2017-2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch\nNote from the author(s):\nThe model is re-estimated every time new data is available and the data provided is the resulting in-sample fit. As such, all data series provided are revised when new data is available.\nContact person:\nMaxime Leboeuf (mleboeuf@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "SAN-2017-21": { "label": "Staff Analytical Note - Evaluating real GDP growth forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN-2017-21", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the authors. The Bank is not responsible for errors in this file. The Bank and the authors do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nResearch Paper:\nEvaluating real GDP growth forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report\nContact person:\nAndre Binette (abinette@bank-banque-canada.ca)\nDmitri Tchebotarev (dtchebotarev@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "SAN_20210415": { "label": "Can regulating bank capital help prevent and mitigate financial downturns?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_20210415", "description": " " }, "SAN_20210415_C1": { "label": "Net social benefits from additional bank capital buffer", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_20210415_C1", "description": "Note: The regulatory capital requirements in this chart are defined as a minimum capital requirement of 4.5 percent, a capital conservation buffer of 2.5 percent and a 1.0 percent surcharge for domestic systemically important banks. All these percentages are expressed as a share of risk-weighted assets. OSFI stands for the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. The 2.5% bar shows the top end of OSFI’s Domestic Stability Buffer range; the 4% bar shows the Observed bank CET1 capital buffer in2019; and the 6% bar shows the capital buffer providing maximum financial stability gains.\n\nSource: Authors’ calculations" }, "SAN_ABRA20250512": { "label": "Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ABRA20250512", "description": "Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment" }, "SAN_ABRA20250512_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Potential output growth is revised down over 2025–27, largely due to trade impacts and population", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ABRA20250512_C1", "description": "Total revisions to annual growth relative to April 2024\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates and projections" }, "SAN_ABRA20250512_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1-A: Impact on trend total factor productivity peaks in two years, followed by a partial recovery", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ABRA20250512_C1A", "description": "Sources: Baqaee and Farhi (2024) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ABRA20250512_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Potential output growth decreases over the scenario horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ABRA20250512_C2", "description": "Annual contributions to potential output growth\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates and projections" }, "SAN_ABRA20250512_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Population growth is driving trend labour input growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ABRA20250512_C3", "description": "Annual contributions to trend labour input growth\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada estimates and projections" }, "SAN_ABRA20250512_C3A": { "label": "Chart 3-A: Impact of generative artificial intelligence varies across sectors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ABRA20250512_C3A", "description": "10-year horizon, percent\n\nSources: World Economic Forum, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ADAM20230718": { "label": "It takes a panel to predict the future", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ADAM20230718", "description": "It takes a panel to predict the future" }, "SAN_ADAM20230718_C1": { "label": "Forecasts place outsized weight on the valuation of interest-rate sensitive industries", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ADAM20230718_C1", "description": "Weights placed on price-to-earnings ratios in the factor, demeaned and standarized, by industry, monthly data\n\nDatastream, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ADAM20230718_C2": { "label": "Canadian equity markets correctly identified sectors most important to the 2008-09 global financial crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ADAM20230718_C2", "description": "Year-over-year real growth of gross domestic product (GDP), monthly data\n\nDatastream, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ADAM20230718_C3": { "label": "Valuation of interest-rate-sensitive equities forecasts a slowdown in real GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ADAM20230718_C3", "description": "Projected change, year-over-year real growth of domestic product (GDP), monthly data\n\nDatastream, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ADJA20240411": { "label": "Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ADJA20240411", "description": "Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update" }, "SAN_ADJA20240411_C1": { "label": "Evolution of the range of the US neutral rates since 2019", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ADJA20240411_C1", "description": "Range of US neutral rate estimates, annual data\n\nNote: The blue band shows the 100-basis-points range for the estimate of the neutral rate.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ADJA20240411_C2": { "label": "Evolution of the range of the Canadian neutral rates since 2019", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ADJA20240411_C2", "description": "Range of Canadian neutral rate estimates, annual data\n\nNote: The blue band shows the 100-basis-points range for the estimate of the neutral rate.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213": { "label": "Liquidity risk at Canadian life insurance companies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213", "description": "Liquidity risk at Canadian life insurance companies" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C1": { "label": "Life insurance companies are among the largest institutional investors in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C1", "description": "Financial assets by type of institutional investor\n\nFinancial assets for life insurance companies includes only assets held \nin their general fund\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C2A": { "label": "Life insurers’ assets are concentrated in fixed-income securities, most of which are corporate bonds - Total assets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C2A", "description": "Composition of total assets and fixed-income assets as at the end of the first quarter of 2023\n\nFigures include the market value of life insurers’ Canadian-domiciled branches but not life insurers’ mutual funds.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C2B": { "label": "Life insurers’ assets are concentrated in fixed-income securities, most of which are corporate bonds - Fixed-income assets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C2B", "description": "Composition of total assets and fixed-income assets as at the end of the first quarter of 2023\n\nFigures include the market value of life insurers’ Canadian-domiciled branches but not life insurers’ mutual funds.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C3A": { "label": "Life insurers use derivatives to hedge against interest rate and foreign exchange risks - Total notional amount", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C3A", "description": "Figures include the derivative securities of life insurers’ Canadian-domiciled branches but not life insurers’ mutual funds.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C3B": { "label": "Life insurers use derivatives to hedge against interest rate and foreign exchange risks - Average term-to-maturity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C3B", "description": "Figures include the derivative securities of life insurers’ Canadian-domiciled branches but not life insurers’ mutual funds.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C4": { "label": "Liquid assets of the largest life insurers have been relatively stable over time", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C4", "description": "Book value, quarterly\n\nFigures include the book value of life insurers’ Canadian-domiciled branches but not life insurers’ mutual funds.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C5": { "label": "Market values of interest rate and foreign exchange derivatives offset during the COVID-19 crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C5", "description": "Market value, quarterly\n\nFigures include the market value of life insurers’ Canadian-domiciled branches but not life insurers’ mutual funds.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C6A": { "label": "Life insurers continued purchasing bonds during peak of COVID-19 crisis - Net purchases by asset class", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C6A", "description": "30-year refers to any bond with a term greater than 10 years. Data presented include all Canadian life insurance companies and Canadian securities only.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C6B": { "label": "Life insurers continued purchasing bonds during peak of COVID-19 crisis - Net purchases by term-to-maturity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C6B", "description": "30-year refers to any bond with a term greater than 10 years. Data presented include all Canadian life insurance companies and Canadian securities only.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALDR20240213_C7": { "label": "Life insurers’ bond purchases remained stable during the period of rising interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALDR20240213_C7", "description": "Purchases on secondary markets and changes in market value of derivative positions, quarterly\n\nFigures include the market value of life insurers’ Canadian-domiciled branches but not life insurers’ mutual funds.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Market Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ALIS20220204": { "label": "Resilience of bank liquidity metrics in the presence of CBDC", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALIS20220204", "description": "Resilience of bank liquidity metrics in the presence of CBDC" }, "SAN_ALIS20220204_C1": { "label": "While mid-size banks are more reliant on deposit funding than large banks, they tend to have relatively fewer deposits that would compete directly with CBDC", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALIS20220204_C1", "description": "Retail deposits as a share of liabilities & equity, using LCR buckets" }, "SAN_ALIS20220204_C2A": { "label": "Canadian banks maintain large liquidity buffers over their minimum liquidity requirements", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALIS20220204_C2A", "description": "Weighted average LCR and share of net cash outflows from chequing and savings deposits of the Big Six and mid-size banks without CBDC (January 2020)" }, "SAN_ALIS20220204_C2B": { "label": "Canadian banks maintain large liquidity buffers over their minimum liquidity requirements", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALIS20220204_C2B", "description": "Weighted average NSFR and share of ASF from chequing and savings deposits of the Big Six without CBDC (January 2020)" }, "SAN_ALIS20220204_C3": { "label": "Big Six banks could still withstand a short-term stress event after the introduction of CBDC", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALIS20220204_C3", "description": "LCR distance above 100% threshold for Big Six banks¬ on average (in percentage points)" }, "SAN_ALIS20220204_C4": { "label": "Most mid-size banks could withstand the shock of CBDC from an LCR perspective", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALIS20220204_C4", "description": "LCR distance above 100% threshold for mid-size banks (in percentage points)" }, "SAN_ALIS20220204_C5": { "label": "Big Six banks maintain healthy funding profiles following the issuance of CBDC", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ALIS20220204_C5", "description": "NSFR distance above 100% threshold for Big Six banks (in percentage points)" }, "SAN_ANGE20200723": { "label": "What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ANGE20200723", "description": "What do high-frequency expenditure network data reveal about spending and inflation during COVID‑19?" }, "SAN_ANGE20200723_C1": { "label": "HFEN weights for some CPI components have increased in weight", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ANGE20200723_C1", "description": "Weights in percentage\n\nLast observation: July 26, 2020\n\nNote: CPI is consumer price index; HFEN is high-frequency expenditure network.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada (Table 18-10-0007-01) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ANGE20200723_C2": { "label": "HFEN weights for other CPI components have declined in weight", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ANGE20200723_C2", "description": "Weights in percentage\n\nLast observation: July 26, 2020\n\nNote: CPI is consumer price index; HFEN is high-frequency expenditure network.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada (Table 18-10-0007-01) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ANGE20200723_C3": { "label": "The adjusted CPI measure suggests a slightly higher inflation rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ANGE20200723_C3", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly data\n\nLast observation: May 2020\n\nNote: CPI is consumer price index.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_AROO180322": { "label": "Staff Analytical Note 2018-7", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROO180322", "description": "Did Canadian Corporate Bond Funds Increase their Exposures to Risks?" }, "SAN_AROO180322_CHART2": { "label": "SAN Chart 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROO180322_CHART2", "description": "The number of CCBFs holding a large proportion of Canadian corporate debt has increased since 2007" }, "SAN_AROO20180622": { "label": "Redemption Runs in Canadian Corporate Bond Funds?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROO20180622", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_AROO20180622_C2": { "label": "The flow-performance asymmetry increases during higher market volatility", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROO20180622_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nNote: AUM = assets under management\nSources: Morningstar and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_AROO20180622_C3": { "label": "A higher liquidity ratio lowers the flow-performance asymmetry in Canadian funds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROO20180622_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nNote: AUM = assets under management. In our sample, 5 per cent is the median cash ratio, and 10 per cent is the 75th percentile cash ratio. See the Technical Appendix for details. Sources: Morningstar and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_AROO20190815": { "label": "Using Exchange-Traded Funds to Measure Liquidity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROO20190815", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_AROO20190815_C1": { "label": "Liquidity of Canadian corporate bonds has improved since 2010", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROO20190815_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: Bank of Canada calculations\nLast observation: December 31, 2017" }, "SAN_AROR20190415": { "label": "Could Canadian Bond Funds Add Stress to the Financial System?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROR20190415", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_AROR20190415_C1": { "label": "Impact of interest rate increases on corporate bond sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROR20190415_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: Morningstar Direct, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_AROR20190415_C2": { "label": "Impact of bond fund asset sales on market prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROR20190415_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nBaseline assumptions: Vertical slicing and participation of long-term investors and broker-dealers\n\n* Mixed liquidity-management strategy for bond fund managers\n** Long-term investors (LTI) do not buy corporate bonds\n\nThe impact on market prices reflects a changes in liquidiyt risk premium, i.e., a compensation for risk beyond expected default.\n\nBps means basis points\n\nSources: Bloomberg, Morningstar Direct and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_AROR20190415_C3": { "label": "Impact of mixed liquidity-management strategy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_AROR20190415_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_ARTH_20200923": { "label": "Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ARTH_20200923", "description": "Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada" }, "SAN_ARTH_20200923_C1A": { "label": "Small firms materially change their investment rate following monetary policy shocks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ARTH_20200923_C1A", "description": "Percentage point change in investment rate following a 0.25 percent monetary\n\nNote: Shaded area shows a 68% confidence band. For each quarter, a cross-section of firms is divided into small and large firms based on the size of their total assets. Firms whose total assets are greater than the 80th percentile are labelled large, and those whose total assets are less than the 60th percentile are labelled small." }, "SAN_ARTH_20200923_C1B": { "label": "Investment response by large firms is muted", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ARTH_20200923_C1B", "description": "Percentage point change in investment rate following a 0.25 percent monetary\n\nNote: Shaded area shows a 68% confidence band. For each quarter, a cross-section of firms is divided into small and large firms based on the size of their total assets. Firms whose total assets are greater than the 80th percentile are labelled large, and those whose total assets are less than the 60th percentile are labelled small." }, "SAN_BEDP20180709": { "label": "Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Provincial Bond Market Deteriorated?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C1": { "label": "The amount of provincial bonds outstanding has surpassed that of Government of Canada and corporate bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nCanadian-dollar denominated bonds, outstanding amount by category.\nNote: Money market instruments are excluded. Not represented: municipal bonds, Canada Mortgage bonds, other federally or provincially-guaranteed bonds.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C2": { "label": "Aggregate liquidity in the provincial bond market remains stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n21-day moving average, daily data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C3": { "label": "Number of trades and trade size have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C4": { "label": "Turnover and zero-trade days remain stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C4", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities, Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C5A": { "label": "Newly issued bonds with large outstanding size are traded more frequently", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C5A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\na. Number of trades\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C5B": { "label": "Newly issued bonds with large outstanding size are traded more frequently", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C5B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nb. Turnover ratio\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C6A": { "label": "Trading activity for Albertan bonds increased following the fall in oil prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C6A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\na. Number of trades\n\nNote: "Other" includes British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island.\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C6B": { "label": "Trading activity for Albertan bonds increased following the fall in oil prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C6B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nb. Trade size\n\nNote: "Other" includes British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island.\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C6C": { "label": "Trading activity for Albertan bonds increased following the fall in oil prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C6C", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nc. Turnover ratio\n\nNote: "Other" includes British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island.\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEDP20180709_C6D": { "label": "Trading activity for Albertan bonds increased following the fall in oil prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEDP20180709_C6D", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nd. Zero-trade days\n\nNote: "Other" includes British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island.\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BEER20230725": { "label": "BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2023?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEER20230725", "description": "BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2023?" }, "SAN_BEER20230725_C1": { "label": "Total share of debt in default by creditor, 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEER20230725_C1", "description": "LC is local currency, and FC is foreign currency. IADB is Inter-American Development Bank. See footnote 1 for more information on the Paris Club group of lenders. Other official creditors are bilateral and multilateral creditors not identified separately. Other private creditors are mainly suppliers.\n\nBoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database 2023" }, "SAN_BEER20240725": { "label": "BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2024?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEER20240725", "description": "BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2024?" }, "SAN_BEER20240725_C1": { "label": "Total share of debt in default by creditor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEER20240725_C1", "description": "LC is local currency, and FC is foreign currency. IADB is Inter-American Development Bank. See footnote 2 for more information on the Paris Club group of lenders. Other official creditors are bilateral and multilateral creditors not identified separately. Other private creditors are mainly suppliers.\n\nBoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database 2023" }, "SAN_BEER20250923": { "label": "BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2025?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEER20250923", "description": "BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2025?" }, "SAN_BEER20250923_C1": { "label": "Total share of debt in default by creditor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEER20250923_C1", "description": "LC is local currency, and FC is foreign currency. IADB is Inter-American Development Bank. See footnote 2 for more information on the Paris Club group of lenders. Other official creditors are bilateral and multilateral creditors not identified separately. Other private creditors are mainly suppliers.\n\nBoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database 2025" }, "SAN_BEER20250923_M1": { "label": "Global debt in default 1990–2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BEER20250923_M1", "description": "US$ millions" }, "SAN_BENM20240412": { "label": "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412", "description": "Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2024" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C1": { "label": "Global potential output growth has recovered", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C1", "description": "Annual data\n\nMPR is the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report; pps is percentage points.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C1A": { "label": "Net immigration is expected to stay elevated in 2023 and 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C1A", "description": "Annual data\n\nCongressional Budget Office" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C1B": { "label": "The labour force participation rate is higher for foreign-born individuals than for US-born people, and the gap is widening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C1B", "description": "Annual data\n\nUS Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C2": { "label": "Improvements in capital deepening are contributing to an increase in global potential output growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C2", "description": "Annual data\n\nMPR is the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report; pps is percentage points.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C2A": { "label": "The outlook for trend TFP growth in China is subject to upside and downside risks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C2A", "description": "Annual data\n\nTFP is total factor productivity.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C2B": { "label": "The outlook for potential growth in China partly depends on TFP growth prospects", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C2B", "description": "Annual data\n\nTFP is total factor productivity.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C3": { "label": "US potential output growth is projected to peak in 2024 due to stronger trend labour input", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C3", "description": "Annual data\n\nMPR is the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report; pps is percentage points.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C4": { "label": "Potential output growth in the euro area is expected to moderate as trend labour input growth declines", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C4", "description": "Annual data\n\nMPR is the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report; pps is percentage points.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C5": { "label": "China’s potential output growth is projected to moderate further due to the declining contribution from capital deepening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C5", "description": "Annual data\n\nMPR is the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report; pps is percentage points.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BENM20240412_C6": { "label": "Potential output growth of emerging-market economies is expected to recover gradually", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BENM20240412_C6", "description": "Annual data\n\nMPR is the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report; pps is percentage points.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BILO20181003": { "label": "The impact of recent policy changes on the Canadian mortgage market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILO20181003", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "SAN_BILO20181003_C1": { "label": "The quality of lending has improved, with fewer mortgages going to highly indebted borrowers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILO20181003_C1", "description": "Share of new mortgages with a loan-to-income ratio over 450 per cent; 5-year mortgage rate\n\nNote: Data include mortgages for residential purchases and refinances originated by federally regulated financial institutions. The 5-year mortgage rate is the median contractual interest rate for a fixed-rate mortgage issued by a federally regulated lender.\n\nSources: Department of Finance Canada, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations\nLast observation: 2018Q2" }, "SAN_BILO20181003_C3": { "label": "New mortgage activity has weakened", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILO20181003_C3", "description": "Year-over-year change in the number of new uninsured borrowers, by loan-to-income ratio\n\nNote: Data are for uninsured low-ratio mortgages for residential purchases originated by federally regulated financial institutions. \n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations\nLast observation: 2018Q2" }, "SAN_BILO20181003_C4": { "label": "Highly indebted borrowers across all major cities have been affected, with the strongest impact in Toronto and surrounding areas", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILO20181003_C4", "description": "Share of new mortgages with loan-to-income ratio over 450 per cent\n\nNote: Data are for uninsured low-ratio mortgages for residential purchases originated by federally regulated financial institutions. \n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations\nLast observation: 2018Q2" }, "SAN_BILO20181003_C5": { "label": "The largest declines in lending occurred in cities with relatively high house prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILO20181003_C5", "description": "Year-over-year change in the number of borrowers, 2018Q2\n\nNote: Data on volumes are for uninsured low-ratio mortgages for residential purchases originated by federally regulated financial institutions.\n\nSources: regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations\nLast observation: 2018Q2" }, "SAN_BILO20181003_C6": { "label": "Mortgage originations in Toronto have decreased for all lender types, with a small shift in market share away from banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILO20181003_C6", "description": "Year-over-year change in volume and market share of various lender types in the Greater Toronto Area\n\nNote: Originations include purchases, refinances and second mortgages in the Greater Toronto Area. Volume and market share are weighted by dollar value. \n\nSources: Teranet and Bank of Canada calculations\nLast observation: 2018Q2" }, "SAN_BILY20210907": { "label": "Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20210907", "description": "Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline" }, "SAN_BILY20210907_C1": { "label": "The percentage of debtors in arrears in energy-intensive regions remains elevated after the oil price shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20210907_C1", "description": "Percentage of debtors behind on any payment by at least 60 days\n\nSource: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BILY20210907_C2": { "label": "A higher loan-to-value ratio is associated with a greater likelihood of future financial stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20210907_C2", "description": "Average predicted probabilities of financial stress\n\nNote: Financial stress refers to borrowers being behind on payments for at least 60 days in any credit category at any point within the first three years of obtaining a mortgage.\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BILY20240318": { "label": "Pricing behaviour and inflation during the pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318", "description": "Pricing behaviour and inflation during the pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_C1": { "label": "Frequency of price changes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_C1", "description": "Percentage of prices that change each month" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_C2A": { "label": "Average size of monthly price changes - Increases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_C2A", "description": "Average non-zero monthly price change (in percent)" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_C2B": { "label": "Average size of monthly price changes - Decreases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_C2B", "description": "Average non-zero monthly price change (in percent)" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_C3": { "label": "Counterfactual exercise", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_C3", "description": "" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_C4": { "label": "Relative frequency of price increases and decreases versus actual inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_C4", "description": "" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_C5": { "label": "Relative frequency of price increases and decreases for CPI and select components", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_C5", "description": "" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_CA1": { "label": "Frequency of price changes for food purchased from stores", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_CA1", "description": "Percentage of prices that change each month, monthly data, unadjusted" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_CA2": { "label": "Frequency of price changes for goods excluding food and energy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_CA2", "description": "Percentage of prices that change each month, monthly data, unadjusted" }, "SAN_BILY20240318_CA3": { "label": "Frequency of price changes for services", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BILY20240318_CA3", "description": "Percentage of prices that change each month, monthly data, unadjusted" }, "SAN_BOLD20220805": { "label": "How does the Bank’s balance sheet impact the banking system?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOLD20220805", "description": "How does the Bank’s balance sheet impact the banking system?" }, "SAN_BOLD20220805_C1": { "label": "Quantitative tightening will reverse the increase in the holdings of government bonds by the Bank of Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOLD20220805_C1", "description": "Holdings of Government of Canada bonds by the Bank of Canada\n\nBank of Canada" }, "SAN_BOLD20220805_C2": { "label": "Quantitative easing has increased the Bank’s ownership share of the Goverment of Canada bond market at the expense of non-bank investors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOLD20220805_C2", "description": "Ownership share of Government of Canada bonds (%)\n\nBanks are domestic banks, while Non-banks include all other investors (i.e., households, pension funds, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, foreign investors, etc.).\n\nStatistics Canada" }, "SAN_BOLD20220805_C3": { "label": "The Bank’s quantitative easing program put upward pressure on the liquidity coverage ratio of major Canadians banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOLD20220805_C3", "description": "Total liquidity coverage ratio across Canada’s Big Six banks\n\nThe liquidity coverage ratio is defined as the ratio of high-quality liquid assets to total net cash outflows over the next 30 calendar days. Canada’s Big Six banks are federally regulated financial institutions that have been designated as systemically important to the Canadian financial system by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Canada’s six major banks are the Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank of Canada.\n\nBig Six banks’ public quarterly financial statements" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514": { "label": "Assessing global potential output growth: April 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514", "description": "Assessing global potential output growth: April 2025" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: A more severe trade war reduces global potential output growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514_C1", "description": "Contributions to global potential output growth, annual data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada staff calculations and estimates" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: A more severe trade war reduces global potential output growth by hindering labour productivity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514_C2", "description": "Contributions to global potential GDP growth, annual data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada staff calculations and estimates" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Negative effects of a more severe trade war are felt across all regions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514_C3", "description": "Decomposition of changes to average annual potential growth in 2025–27 relative to April 2024, percent change\n\nNote: “Rest of the world” is a grouping of other economies not included in the first five regions. It is composed of oil-exporting EMEs (such as Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia) and other advanced economies (such as Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia)\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: US potential output growth will slow between 2025 and 2028 in both scenarios", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514_C4", "description": "Contributions to US potential GDP growth, annual data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada staff calculations and estimates" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Tariffs and trade-related impact weigh on potential output growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514_C5", "description": "Contributions to average 2025–27 US potential output growth, percentage points, annual data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Potential output growth in the euro area remains around 1%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514_C6", "description": "Contributions to Europe’s potential output growth, annual data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada staff calculations and estimates" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: China’s potential output growth will moderate at a steadier pace due to labour market reforms and stronger capital deepening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514_C7", "description": "Contributions to China’s potential output growth\n\nSource: Bank of Canada staff calculations and estimates" }, "SAN_BOUL20250514_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Potential output growth stabilizes at 4% across emerging-market economies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUL20250514_C8", "description": "Contributions to global potential output growth, annual data\n\nSource: Bank of Canada staff calculations and estimates" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501": { "label": "Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501", "description": "Sources of pandemic-era inflation in Canada: an application of the Bernanke and Blanchard model" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C1": { "label": "Wage growth measures for Canada show similar trends", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C1", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, quarterly data\n\nLFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. The LFS fixed-weight measure is constructed using 2019 employment weights. Wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C2": { "label": "The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio suggests more labour market tightness than the unemployment rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C2", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nUnemployment rate includes both sexes, age 15 years and over, and is seasonally adjusted." }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C3": { "label": "All three versions of the model explain quarter-over-quarter changes in inflation well", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C3", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nCPI is consumer price index; LFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements." }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C4A": { "label": "a. One-time permanent increase in the relative price of energy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C4A", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours; WAGSET is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements.\n\nUS Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C4B": { "label": "b. One-time permanent increase in the relative price of food", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C4B", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours; WAGSET is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements.\n\nUS Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C4C": { "label": "c. One-time permanent increase in the shortage index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C4C", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours; WAGSET is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements.\n\nUS Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C4D": { "label": "d. One-time permanent increase in vacancy-to-unemployment ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C4D", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours; WAGSET is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements.\n\nUS Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C5A": { "label": "a. US specification, ECI", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C5A", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; and SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Major wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements. Initial conditions refers to the contribution of pre-pandemic data.\n\nBernanke and Blanchard (2023), Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C5B": { "label": "b. Canada specification, LFS", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C5B", "description": "" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C5C": { "label": "c. Canada specification, major wage settlements data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C5C", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; and SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Major wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements. Initial conditions refers to the contribution of pre-pandemic data.\n\nBernanke and Blanchard (2023), Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C5D": { "label": "d. Canada specification, SEPH", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C5D", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; and SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Major wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements. Initial conditions refers to the contribution of pre-pandemic data.\n\nBernanke and Blanchard (2023), Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C6A": { "label": "a. US specification, ECI", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C6A", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; and SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Major wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements. Initial conditions refers to the contribution of pre-pandemic data.\n\nBernanke and Blanchard (2023), Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C6B": { "label": "b. Canada specification, LFS", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C6B", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; and SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Major wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements. Initial conditions refers to the contribution of pre-pandemic data.\n\nBernanke and Blanchard (2023), Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C6C": { "label": "c. Canada specification, major wage settlements data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C6C", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; and SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Major wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements. Initial conditions refers to the contribution of pre-pandemic data.\n\nBernanke and Blanchard (2023), Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C6D": { "label": "d. Canada specification, SEPH", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C6D", "description": "ECI is the US Employment Cost Index. LFS is the Labour Force Survey; and SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. Major wage settlements is the average negotiated wage adjustment in collective bargaining agreements. Initial conditions refers to the contribution of pre-pandemic data.\n\nBernanke and Blanchard (2023), Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240501_C7": { "label": "Further labour market easing may be required to bring inflation back to target", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240501_C7", "description": "V/U is the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio." }, "SAN_BOUN20240916": { "label": "Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using LFS microdata", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240916", "description": "Beyond the averages: Measuring underlying wage growth using LFS microdata" }, "SAN_BOUN20240916_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Composition effects heavily influence growth in average wages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240916_C1", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, seasonally adjusted\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240916_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: LFS-Micro removes volatility caused by compositional changes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240916_C2", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, seasonally adjusted\n\nNote: LFS is Labour Force Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240916_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: The effects of compositional changes in the workforce have been driving up wage growth since summer 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240916_C3", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, seasonally adjusted\n\nNote: See footnote 5 for a list of Other characteristics.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240916_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Underlying wage growth in the private sector usually outpaces growth in the public sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240916_C4", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, seasonally adjusted\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240916_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Taking advantage of detail in Labour Force Survey master files does not materially affect results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240916_C5", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, seasonally adjusted\n\nNote: LFS is Labour Force Survey. PUMF is public use microdata file.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BOUN20240916_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Wages earned by non-permanent residents have moderated wage growth since early 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BOUN20240916_C6", "description": "Contributions to year-over-year percentage change\n\nNote: Immigration status separates Canadian-born workers from landed and non-landed immigrants. See footnote 5 for Other characteristics.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BRJO20180418": { "label": "Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BRJO20180418", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n" }, "SAN_BROU20240417": { "label": "Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417", "description": "Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C1": { "label": "Growth in total factor productivity is projected to slow in the 2020s", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C1", "description": "Contribution to business sector TFP growth, annual data\n\nTFP is total factor productivity.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C2": { "label": "Digitalization and demographic shifts will support total factor productivity growth in the 2020s", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C2", "description": "Contribution to business sector TFP growth, annual data\n\nTFP is total factor productivity.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C3A": { "label": "Productivity growth in Canada has been declining - a. Labour productivity growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C3A", "description": "Average annual growth\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C3B": { "label": "Productivity growth in Canada has been declining - b. Total factor productivity growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C3B", "description": "Average annual growth\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C4A": { "label": "Base-case profiles of total factor productivity differ by sector - a. Sectors that grew above historical aggregate average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C4A", "description": "Level of total factor productivity, 1961–2030, index: 1961 = 100\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C4B": { "label": "Base-case profiles of total factor productivity differ by sector - b. Sectors that grew below historical aggregate average", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C4B", "description": "Level of total factor productivity, 1961–2030, index: 1961 = 100\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C5": { "label": "Digital intensity increased faster during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in services", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C5", "description": "Average change in digital intensity index\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C6": { "label": "Digitalization has had a positive impact on total factor productivity growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C6", "description": "Contribution to business sector total factor productivity growth, annual data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C7A": { "label": "The shares of young and older workers are expected to decline - a. Overall (1980–2019)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C7A", "description": "Share of workers by age group, annual data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C7B": { "label": "The shares of young and older workers are expected to decline - b. Projected change in share of workers by sector, 2019–30", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C7B", "description": "Share of workers by age group, annual data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C8": { "label": "The impacts of population aging on total factor productivity growth are expected to become less significant", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C8", "description": "Contribution to business sector total factor productivity growth, annual data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C9A": { "label": "Climate policies are expected to lower the nominal shares of carbon-intensive sectors - a. Change in sectoral share by 2030 compared with a scenario with no climate change policy, percentage change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C9A", "description": "A sectoral share is calculated as sectoral nominal gross output divided by business sector nominal GDP. The sum of all sectoral shares in panel b is greater than 1.0 because intermediate inputs are included in gross nominal output.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_BROU20240417_C9B": { "label": "Climate policies are expected to lower the nominal shares of carbon-intensive sectors - b. Shares in 2030 in a scenario with climate change policy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_BROU20240417_C9B", "description": "A sectoral share is calculated as sectoral nominal gross output divided by business sector nominal GDP. The sum of all sectoral shares in panel b is greater than 1.0 because intermediate inputs are included in gross nominal output.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_CHAN20230905": { "label": "Three things we learned about the Lynx payment system", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20230905", "description": "Three things we learned about the Lynx payment system" }, "SAN_CHAN20230905_C1A": { "label": "Value", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20230905_C1A", "description": "System-level daily average values and volumes of payments settled in LVTS and Lynx, weekly average" }, "SAN_CHAN20230905_C1B": { "label": "Volume", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20230905_C1B", "description": "" }, "SAN_CHAN20230905_C2": { "label": "Payments arrived earlier in Lynx than in the LVTS", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20230905_C2", "description": "" }, "SAN_CHAN20230905_C3": { "label": "Lynx provided more liquidity efficiency than the LVTS", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20230905_C3", "description": "" }, "SAN_CHAN20250224": { "label": "Stress testing central counterparties for resolution planning", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20250224", "description": "Stress testing central counterparties for resolution planning" }, "SAN_CHAN20250224_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1: Counterfactual credit loss estimates in various resolution scenarios - a. 2 defaults under 1/50-year shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20250224_C1A", "description": "Stress-test loss after applying defaulters’ margin and their clearing fund, quarterly maximum\n\nNote: The amount of simulated losses and the identity of the clearing members are omitted intentionally to maintain confidentiality.\n\nSources: Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHAN20250224_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1: Counterfactual credit loss estimates in various resolution scenarios - b. 3 defaults under 1/50-year shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20250224_C1B", "description": "Stress-test loss after applying defaulters’ margin and their clearing fund, quarterly maximum\n\nNote: The amount of simulated losses and the identity of the clearing members are omitted intentionally to maintain confidentiality.\n\nSources: Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHAN20250224_C1C": { "label": "Chart 1: Counterfactual credit loss estimates in various resolution scenarios - c. 2 defaults under 1/100-year shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20250224_C1C", "description": "Stress-test loss after applying defaulters’ margin and their clearing fund, quarterly maximum\n\nNote: The amount of simulated losses and the identity of the clearing members are omitted intentionally to maintain confidentiality.\n\nSources: Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHAN20250224_C1D": { "label": "Chart 1: Counterfactual credit loss estimates in various resolution scenarios - d. 3 defaults under 1/100-year shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20250224_C1D", "description": "Stress-test loss after applying defaulters’ margin and their clearing fund, quarterly maximum\n\nNote: The amount of simulated losses and the identity of the clearing members are omitted intentionally to maintain confidentiality.\n\nSources: Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHAN20250224_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The residual loss after exhausting all pre-funded resources including surviving members’ clearing fund", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHAN20250224_C2", "description": "Stress-test loss after applying defaulters’ margin and their clearing fund, quarterly maximum\n\nNote: To maintain confidentiality, we use hypothetical numbers for the survivors’ clearing fund instead of actual data. The simulated stress-test losses and the identity of the clearing members are also omitted intentionally to maintain confidentiality.\n\nSources: Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHEN20220509": { "label": "Potential netting benefits from expanded central clearing in Canada’s fixed-income market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHEN20220509", "description": "Potential netting benefits from expanded central clearing in Canada’s fixed-income market" }, "SAN_CHEN20220509_C1": { "label": "Dealers may experience material balance sheet netting benefits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHEN20220509_C1", "description": "Bank of Canada, MTRS" }, "SAN_CHEN20220509_C2": { "label": "Balance sheet netting benefits are substantially lower for public pension funds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHEN20220509_C2", "description": "Bank of Canada, MTRS" }, "SAN_CHIU20230823": { "label": "Decentralized finance: Innovations and challenges", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHIU20230823", "description": "Decentralized finance: Innovations and challenges" }, "SAN_CHIU20230823_C1": { "label": "Total value locked in decentralized finance on Ethereum", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHIU20230823_C1", "description": "Source: DefiLlama" }, "SAN_CHIU20230823_C2": { "label": "Composition of Ethereum’s decentralized finance services", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHIU20230823_C2", "description": "Liquid staking is a DeFi investment service that allows users to pledge their funds to earn staking rewards, but the investment remains liquid in the sense that users can still access a tokenized version of their funds.\n\nSource: DeFiLlama" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422": { "label": "Small and smaller: How the economic outlook of small firms relates to size", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422", "description": "Small and smaller: How the economic outlook of small firms relates to size" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C1A": { "label": "Firm age and concentration of sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C1A", "description": "Age of Firm" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C1B": { "label": "Firm age and concentration of sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C1B", "description": "Number of customers accounting for half of firm sales" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C2A": { "label": "Sector and customer type", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C2A", "description": "Sector\n\nNote: Sector aggregates are defined by North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary: 11 and 21; manufacturing (MFTG): 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81." }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C2B": { "label": "Sector and customer type", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C2B", "description": "Type of customer\n\nNote: Sector aggregates are defined by North American Industry Classification System codes as follows: primary: 11 and 21; manufacturing (MFTG): 311–339; construction, information, transportation and utilities (CITU): 22, 23, 48, 49 and 51; trade: 41, 44 and 45; finance, insurance and real estate (FIRE): 52–53; and commercial, personal and business services (CPBS): 54, 55, 56, 71, 72 and 81." }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C3A": { "label": "Sources and uses of financing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C3A", "description": "Primary funding source" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C3B": { "label": "Sources and uses of financing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C3B", "description": "Uses of credit" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C4": { "label": "Responses to labour shortages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C4", "description": "" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C5A": { "label": "Factors influencing input and output prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C5A", "description": "Drivers of input prices" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C5B": { "label": "Factors influencing input and output prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C5B", "description": "Drivers of output prices" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C6": { "label": "Past sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C6", "description": "Balance of opinion:* Over the past 12 months, did your firm’s total sales volumes decrease significantly, decrease slightly, remain the same, increase slightly or increase significantly compared with the previous 12 months?\n\n* Balances of opinion are constructed by assigning scores (e.g., 1, 0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1) to the responses, totalling all scores and dividing by the number of responses.\n\nNote: Responses are plotted one quarter ahead; BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_C7": { "label": "Future sales", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_C7", "description": "Balance of opinion:* Over the next 12 months, do you expect your firm’s total sales volumes to decrease significantly, decrease slightly, remain the same, increase slightly or increase significantly compared with the past 12 months?\n\n* Balances of opinion are constructed by assigning scores (e.g., 1, 0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1) to the responses, totalling all scores and dividing by the number of responses.\n\nNote: Responses are plotted two quarters ahead; BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_CA1": { "label": "Future sales indicators", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_CA1", "description": "Balance of opinion:* Compared with 12 months ago, have your order books, advanced bookings, sales inquiries or other indicators of future sales improved, deteriorated or remained the same?\n\n* Percentage of firms of firms reporting that indicators have improved minus the percentage reporting that indicators have deteriorated\n\nNote: Responses are plotted one quarter ahead; BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_CA2": { "label": "Investment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_CA2", "description": "Balance of opinion:* Over the next 12 months, do you expect your capital spending on machinery and equipment to decrease significantly, decrease slightly, remain the same, increase slightly or increase significantly compared with the past 12 months?\n\n* Balances of opinion are constructed by assigning scores (e.g., 1, 0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1) to the responses, totalling all scores and dividing by the number of responses.\n\nNote: Responses are plotted one quarter ahead; BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_CA3": { "label": "Employment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_CA3", "description": "Balance of opinion:* Over the next 12 months, do you expect your Canadian employment levels to decrease significantly, decrease slightly, remain the same, increase slightly or increase significantly compared with the past 12 months?\n\n* Balances of opinion are constructed by assigning scores (e.g., 1, 0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1) to the responses, totalling all scores and dividing by the number of responses.\n\nNote: Responses are plotted one quarter ahead; BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey; SEPH is Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_CA4": { "label": "Wage growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_CA4", "description": "Balance of opinion:* Is your expected average wage change higher, lower or about the same as the past 12 months?\n\n* Percentage of firms of firms reporting the expected average change in wages to be higher minus the percentage reporting it to be lower\n\nNote: Responses are plotted two quarters ahead; BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey; SEPH is Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_CA5": { "label": "Ability to meet demand", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_CA5", "description": "Share of firms:* How would you rate your firm's current ability to meet an unexpected increase in demand or sales (no difficulties, some difficulties or significant difficulties)?\n\n* Share of firms reporting some or significant difficulties\n\nNote: BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_CA6": { "label": "Labour shortages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_CA6", "description": "Share of firms:* Does your organization face shortages of labour that restrict your firm’s ability to meet demand?\n\n* Share of firms reporting shortages of labour\n\nNote: BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_CA7": { "label": "Changes in input prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_CA7", "description": "Balance of opinion:* Over the next 12 months, are the prices of the products or services that you purchase as inputs expected to decrease significantly, decrease slightly, remain the same, increase slightly or increase significantly compared with the past 12 months?\n\n* Balances of opinion are constructed by assigning scores (e.g., 1, 0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1) to the responses, totalling all scores and dividing by the number of responses.\n\nNote: Responses are plotted one quarter ahead; BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_CHRI20210422_CA8": { "label": "Changes in output prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_CHRI20210422_CA8", "description": "Balance of opinion:* Over the next 12 months, are the prices of the products or services that you sell are expected to decrease significantly, decrease slightly, remain the same, increase slightly or increase significantly compared with the past 12 months?\n\n* Balances of opinion are constructed by assigning scores (e.g., 1, 0.5, 0, -0.5 and -1) to the responses, totalling all scores and dividing by the number of responses.\n\nNote: Responses are plotted one quarter ahead; BOS is Business Outlook Survey; e-BOS is electronic Business Outlook Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DANI20200720": { "label": "The Canadian Corporate Investment Gap", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DANI20200720", "description": "The Canadian Corporate Investment Gap" }, "SAN_DANI20200720_C1": { "label": "Corporate investment gap opened up in the early 2000s", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DANI20200720_C1", "description": "Actual vs. model-predicted aggregate investment, 2012 dollars" }, "SAN_DANI20200720_C2": { "label": "Most of the gap is related to a reduction in equity issuance", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DANI20200720_C2", "description": "Decomposition of the cumulative investment gap by sources and use of funds, 2012 dollars" }, "SAN_DESR20180627": { "label": "Readability and the Bank of Canada: Preliminary Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C1": { "label": "Average GFI for sampled text", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C10": { "label": "Speeches by Sabine Lautenschläger, gunning Fog Index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C10", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C2": { "label": "Average GFI for similar organizations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C3": { "label": "Speech Readability - Gunning Fog Index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C4": { "label": "FSR Readability - GFI", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C4", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C5": { "label": "Readability by topic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C5", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C6": { "label": "Adult literacy in Canada as measured by OECD", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C6", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C7": { "label": "GFI for content on the same topic and for the same audience", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C7", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C8": { "label": "GFI for FADs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C8", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DESR20180627_C9": { "label": "MPR readability - Gunning Fog Index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DESR20180627_C9", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_DEVA20240415": { "label": "Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20240415", "description": "Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment" }, "SAN_DEVA20240415_C1": { "label": "Potential output growth is revised up in 2024 and down in 2025–26, largely due to expected changes in population growth dynamics", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20240415_C1", "description": "Total revisions to annual growth relative to April 2023\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_DEVA20240415_C1A": { "label": "Total factor productivity growth is expected to decline", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20240415_C1A", "description": "Annual contribution to total factor productivity growth, by sector\n\nThe yellow bars mostly capture the persistence of TFP (through lagged TFP). Other factors such as sector and time fixed effects, intangible assets (e.g., research and development, advertising, organizational capital), investment and education are also included but play a small role.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_DEVA20240415_C1B": { "label": "Structural factors have a substantial impact on total factor productivity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20240415_C1B", "description": "Annual contribution to total factor productivity growth from structural factors\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_DEVA20240415_C2": { "label": "Potential output growth decreases over the projection horizon", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20240415_C2", "description": "Annual contribution to potential output growth\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_DEVA20240415_C2A": { "label": "Non-permanent residents have driven Canada’s population growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20240415_C2A", "description": "Contribution to annual population changes\n\nOther includes minor flows such as emigrants and returning emigrants.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20240415_C2B": { "label": "Sectoral reallocation of immigrant labour has been important", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20240415_C2B", "description": "Share of employees who are non-permanent residents, by sector\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_DEVA20240415_C3": { "label": "Population changes are driving growth in trend labour input", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20240415_C3", "description": "Annual contribution to trend labour input growth\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526": { "label": "Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2025 update", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526", "description": "Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2025 update" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The labour market is in modest excess slack", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C1", "description": "Average of labour market indicator gaps relative to their benchmark ranges, standardized\n\nNote: Higher values in this chart signal a tighter labour market. Gaps are calculated based on the Hodrick-Prescott and Hamilton filters only." }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Measures of overall labour market conditions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C2", "description": "Note: This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical worst and historical best. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Due to limitations from the short sample, the benchmark range for vacancy measures does not include the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; JVWS is the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Real wages in the public sector have not returned to pre-pandemic levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C3", "description": "LFS-Micro data, deflated by total consumer price index, seasonally adjusted; index: December 2019 = 100\n\nNote: LFS-Micro measures wage growth using Labour Force Survey (LFS) microdata to remove any biases caused by changes in worker characteristics, extracting a quality-adjusted price for labour.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Wage growth generally lags wage expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C4", "description": "Year-over-year growth, quarterly data, seasonally adjusted\n\nNote: BOS is the Business Outlook Survey. LFS-Micro measures wage growth using Labour Force Survey (LFS) microdata to remove any biases caused by changes in worker characteristics.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Youth make up a larger share of the rise in unemployment compared with earlier downturns", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C5", "description": "Share of overall increase in unemployment for those aged 15–24, 18 months after start of downturn period\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Benchmark ranges for overall labour market conditions have been updated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C6", "description": "Note: This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical worst and historical best. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; JVWS is the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Benchmark ranges for job characteristics have been updated", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C7", "description": "Note: This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical worst and historical best. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours; LFS-Micro is a measure derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) microdata with the effects of workforce composition removed.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C8A": { "label": "Chart 8-A: Benchmark ranges for labour market inclusiveness have been updated - a. Unemployment rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C8A", "description": "Note: This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical worst and historical best. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Employment levels by wage are not seasonally adjusted.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C8B": { "label": "Chart 8-B: Benchmark ranges for labour market inclusiveness have been updated - b. Labour force participation rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C8B", "description": "Note: This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical worst and historical best. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Employment levels by wage are not seasonally adjusted.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DEVA20250526_C8C": { "label": "Chart 8-C: Benchmark ranges for labour market inclusiveness have been updated - c. Employment rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DEVA20250526_C8C", "description": "Note: This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical worst and historical best. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Employment levels by wage are not seasonally adjusted.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_DONG20250509": { "label": "Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DONG20250509", "description": "Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update" }, "SAN_DONG20250509_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Evolution of the range of the Canadian neutral rate since 2019", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_DONG20250509_C1", "description": "Range of Canadian neutral rate estimates, annual data\n\nNote: The blue band shows the 100-basis-point range for the estimates of the neutral rate in Canada.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENGE20241113": { "label": "The impact of a central bank digital currency on payments at the point of sale", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENGE20241113", "description": "The impact of a central bank digital currency on payments at the point of sale" }, "SAN_ENGE20241113_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Consumer adoption of a debit-like CBDC", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENGE20241113_C1", "description": "Note: CBDC is central bank digital currency. A simulated debit-like CBDC incorporates features of debit transactions regarding ease of use, security of use and affordability.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENGE20241113_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Consumer adoption of a best-of-both CBDC", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENGE20241113_C2", "description": "Note: CBDC is central bank digital currency. A simulated best-of-both CBDC incorporates the features of either cash or debit that are most preferred by consumers regarding ease of use (including offline capability), security of use (including anonymity) and perceived cost of use.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417": { "label": "Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417", "description": "Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C1": { "label": "Benchmark ranges have been updated to reflect new data and re-evaluations of vacancy measures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C1", "description": "This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical weakest and historical strongest. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Due to limitations from the short sample, the benchmark range for vacancy measures does not include the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; JVWS is the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey.\n\nStatistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C10": { "label": "The contribution of the labour market to above-target inflation was moderate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C10", "description": "Estimated contribution of labour indicators to inflationary pressures\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C2": { "label": "Structural decline in self-employment has been driven by marginal self-employed workers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C2", "description": "Self-employed workers, as a percentage of employed workers\n\nMarginal self-employed refers to unincorporated, self-employed workers.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C3A": { "label": "The decline in marginal self-employment is broad-based - a. Managers versus others", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C3A", "description": "Self-employed workers, as a percentage of employed workers\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C3B": { "label": "The decline in marginal self-employment is broad-based - b. Five lowest-wage occupations versus others", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C3B", "description": "Self-employed workers, as a percentage of employed workers\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C4": { "label": "Employment in low-wage occupations is still below pre-pandemic levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C4", "description": "Change in number of employees since 2019\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C5": { "label": "The share of vacancies in low-wage occupations has declined slightly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C5", "description": "Vacancies in low-wage occupations as a share of total vacancies, not seasonally adjusted\n\nStatistics Canada did not collect data in 2020Q2 and 2020Q3.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C6": { "label": "Unemployment rates in both occupation groups have evolved in a similar fashion", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C6", "description": "Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C7": { "label": "Labour demand indicators have eased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C7", "description": "This chart presents the current value of selected labour market indicators when compared with their historical weakest and historical strongest. Benchmarks comprise the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. The vacancy rate from Indeed.com is computed as the ratio of total Indeed.com job postings to the sum of private employment, public employment and Indeed.com job postings. Due to data limitations, this indicator is benchmarked against its 2019 average only. Due to limitations of the short sample, the benchmark range for the vacancy rate does not include the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. BOS is the Business Outlook Survey; JVWS is the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey.\n\nStatistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C8": { "label": "Measures of wages have been showing signs of moderation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C8", "description": "This chart presents the current value of selected labour market indicators when compared with their historical weakest and historical strongest. Benchmarks comprise the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_C9": { "label": "Labour market conditions have eased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_C9", "description": "Average of labour market indicator gaps relative to benchmarks\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_CA1": { "label": "Measures of job characteristics", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_CA1", "description": "This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical weakest and historical strongest. Benchmarks comprise the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Data for all series are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) unless otherwise noted. SEPH is the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. *Average hours worked are expressed in hours and not percent.\n\nStatistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_CA2A": { "label": "Measures of labour market inclusiveness - a. Unemployment rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_CA2A", "description": "This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical weakest and historical strongest. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Employment levels by wage are not seasonally adjusted.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_CA2B": { "label": "Measures of labour market inclusiveness - b. Labour force participation rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_CA2B", "description": "This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical weakest and historical strongest. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Employment levels by wage are not seasonally adjusted.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_CA2C": { "label": "Measures of labour market inclusiveness - c. Employment rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_CA2C", "description": "This chart presents the current value of labour market indicators when compared with their historical weakest and historical strongest. Benchmarks are composed of the modified Hamilton filter, the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the corresponding value of the indicator during a period when the labour input gap was closed and, for selected indicators, trend estimates produced by the Bank of Canada. Employment levels by wage are not seasonally adjusted.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ENSE20240417_CA3": { "label": "Employment rate has been roughly stable in the last two decades", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ENSE20240417_CA3", "description": "Employment as a percentage of population (15 years and older), seasonally adjusted\n\nStatistics Canada" }, "SAN_EPPA20250610": { "label": "The increasing role of hedge funds in Government of Canada bond auctions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_EPPA20250610", "description": "The increasing role of hedge funds in Government of Canada bond auctions" }, "SAN_EPPA20250610_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Hedge fund bidding as a share of total bidding at Government of Canada bond auctions has grown", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_EPPA20250610_C1", "description": "Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_EPPA20250610_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: As debt stock rises, participation of hedge funds in bond auctions also increases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_EPPA20250610_C2", "description": "Department of Finance Canada, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_EPPA20250610_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Auction allocation to hedge funds has increased from 0% to over 40% in the past 15 years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_EPPA20250610_C3", "description": "Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20171101": { "label": "The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20171101", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nRaisa Leiderman" }, "SAN_FEUN20171101_C1": { "label": "The slope component and the tone are positively related", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20171101_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nRaisa Leiderman\nDistribution of slope component values for each tone grouping. A more hawkish- (or dovish-) than-expected tone tends to have a positive (or negative) slope component.\nSources: Montréal Exchangeand Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20171101_C2A": { "label": "Change in Canadian dollar and level component", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20171101_C2A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nRaisa Leiderman\nLevel component and changes in the Canadian dollar for discrete intervals after each Fixed Announcement Date.\nLeft axis is USD (cents).\nRight axis is %.\nNote: Each data point represents discrete 30 minute intervals after each Fixed Announcement Date.\nSources: Montréal Exchange, Thomson Reuters, and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20171101_C2B": { "label": "Change in Canadian dollar and slope component", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20171101_C2B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nRaisa Leiderman\nSlope component and changes in the Canadian dollar for discrete intervals after each Fixed Announcement Date.\nLeft axis is USD (cents).\nRight axis is %.\nNote: Each data point represents discrete 30 minute intervals after each Fixed Announcement Date.\nSources: Montréal Exchange, Thomson Reuters, and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20171101_C3A": { "label": "Change in implied 10-year Government of Canada yield and level component", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20171101_C3A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nRaisa Leiderman\nLevel component and changes in the 10-year Government of Canada yield for discrete intervals after each Fixed Announcement Date.\nLeft axis is %.\nRight axis is %.\nNote: Each data point represents discrete 30 minute intervals after each Fixed Announcement Date.\nSources: Montréal Exchange and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20171101_C3B": { "label": "Change in implied 10-year Government of Canada yield and slope component", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20171101_C3B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nRaisa Leiderman\nSlope component and changes in the 10-year Government of Canada yield for discrete intervals after each Fixed Announcement Date.\nLeft axis is %.\nRight axis is %.\nNote: Each data point represents discrete 30 minute intervals after each Fixed Announcement Date.\nSources: Montréal Exchange and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20180820": { "label": "Markets Look Beyond the Headline", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20180820", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_FEUN20180820_C1A": { "label": "Non-headline news explains a significant portion of asset price changes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20180820_C1A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: Montréal Exchange, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20180820_C1B": { "label": "Non-headline news has a bigger impact on asset prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20180820_C1B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: Montréal Exchange, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20180820_C2A": { "label": "Headline news alone explains a small portion of asset price changes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20180820_C2A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: Montréal Exchange, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20180820_C2B": { "label": "Non-headline news sometimes explains most asset price changes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20180820_C2B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: Montréal Exchange, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20181109": { "label": "The Secular Decline of Forecasted Interest Rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20181109", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nA contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n\nAuthors: \n - Bruno Feunou\n - Jean-Sébastien Fontaine\n\nThis version: October 2018\n\nSources:" }, "SAN_FEUN20181109_C1": { "label": "Nominal yields have trended down in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20181109_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nYield to maturity of bonds issued by the Government of Canada with a constant maturity of 10 years\n\nSources: Statistics Canada Table 34-10-0145-01 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation: 5-year conventional mortgage lending rate) and\nBank of Canada calculations (Bauer, Diez de los Rios and Melin, Government of Canada yield curve from 1938 to the present: 10-year yield)." }, "SAN_FEUN20181109_C2": { "label": "Survey forecasts of the nominal yields have also declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20181109_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: Department of Finance Canada and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_FEUN20181109_C3": { "label": "The estimated interest rate endpoint in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20181109_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nEstimates of the terminal nominal rate, estimated both as varying with time and as constant across time\n\nSources: Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20181109_C4": { "label": "Interest rate endpoint speed of adjustment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20181109_C4", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nEstimates of the volatility of the terminal nominal rate, estimated both as varying with time and as constant across time\n\nSources: Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20181109_C5": { "label": "Estimates of the 10-year term premium", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20181109_C5", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nEstimates of the Government of Canada 10-year zero-coupon yield term permium \nin both cases of the terminal nominal rate (varying with time and constant across time)\n\nSources: Haver Analytics (C.D. Howe Institute) Recession Indicator, Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FEUN20231227": { "label": "Finding the balance—measuring risks to inflation and to GDP growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20231227", "description": "Finding the balance—measuring risks to inflation and to GDP growth" }, "SAN_FEUN20231227_C1A": { "label": "Inflation greater than 3%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20231227_C1A", "description": "" }, "SAN_FEUN20231227_C1B": { "label": "Inflation between 1% and 3%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20231227_C1B", "description": "" }, "SAN_FEUN20231227_C2A": { "label": "Probability of growth in gross domestic product (GDP)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20231227_C2A", "description": "a. GDP growth less than 0%" }, "SAN_FEUN20231227_C2B": { "label": "Probability of growth in gross domestic product (GDP)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20231227_C2B", "description": "b. GDP growth less than -1%" }, "SAN_FEUN20231227_C3": { "label": "Probabilities of various economic outcomes in 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FEUN20231227_C3", "description": "" }, "SAN_FISH20240514": { "label": "Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2023 global monitoring report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FISH20240514", "description": "Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2023 global monitoring report" }, "SAN_FISH20240514_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Total assets in the Canadian financial system fell in 2022 for the first time in more than 20 years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FISH20240514_C1", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nThe non-bank financial intermediation sector includes insurance corporations, pension funds, financial auxiliaries and other financial intermediaries.\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, Ontario Securities Commission, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FISH20240514_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Assets held by other financial intermediaries fell in 2022, largely driven by other investment funds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FISH20240514_C2", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nOther financial intermediaries are all entities in the non-bank financial intermediation sector excluding pension funds, insurance corporations and financial auxiliaries. Other investment funds consists primarily of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds and excludes hedge funds, money market funds, real estate investment trusts and real estate funds.\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, Ontario Securities Commission, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FISH20240514_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Assets held by entities in the narrow measure of non-bank financial intermediaries declined in 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FISH20240514_C3", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nCanadian Investment Regulatory Organization, Morningstar Direct, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Ontario Securities Commission, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FISH20240514_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Fixed-income and mixed mutual funds were responsible for a large share of investment fund losses in 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FISH20240514_C4", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nMorningstar Direct, Ontario Securities Commission, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FISH20240514_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Finance companies recorded asset growth of 6.3% in 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FISH20240514_C5", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nThe value of assets held by mortgage finance companies is missing in 2014 for confidentiality purposes, so the value shown is interpolated.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20180328": { "label": "The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part III", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20180328", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBank of International Settlements, International Monetary Fund, and Bank of Canada calculations." }, "SAN_FONJ20180328_CHART1": { "label": "The sensitivity of commodity exporters' cross-border lending activities to global cross-border lending activity. Adjusted R2, 10-year rolling regressions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20180328_CHART1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBank of International Settlements, International Monetary Fund, and Bank of Canada calculations." }, "SAN_FONJ20190802": { "label": "Relative Value of Government of Canada Bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20190802", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_FONJ20190802_C1": { "label": "Distribution of relative value", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20190802_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: FTSE TMX and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20190802_C2": { "label": "Factors related to relative value", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20190802_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nNote: Each factor has been standardized\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities, Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20190802_C3": { "label": "Usefulness for relative value of expensive bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20190802_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: FTSE TMX, Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20190802_C4": { "label": "Relative value of expensive bonds at different levels of rental income and trading volume", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20190802_C4", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: FTSE TMX, Canadian Depository for Securities, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20190802_C5": { "label": "Usefulness for relative value of cheap bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20190802_C5", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: FTSE TMX, Canadian Depository for Securities, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20200506": { "label": "COVID-19 and bond market liquidity: alert, isolation and recovery", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20200506", "description": "COVID-19 and bond market liquidity: alert, isolation and recovery" }, "SAN_FONJ20200506_C1": { "label": "Spot market trading volume reaches a historical peak during phase 1", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20200506_C1", "description": "Weekly average of daily data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20200506_C2": { "label": "Government of Canada and US Treasury bonds weekly trading volume", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20200506_C2", "description": "Weekly data, local currency\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve Bank of New York" }, "SAN_FONJ20200506_C3": { "label": "Liquidity peaked during Phase 1 and Phase 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20200506_C3", "description": "Roll liquidity metric; weekly average of daily data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20200506_C4": { "label": "The complexity of transaction networks peaks in phase 1", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20200506_C4", "description": "Weekly average of daily data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20200506_C5": { "label": "Settlement fails", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20200506_C5", "description": "Weekly average of daily data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONJ20200506_C6": { "label": "Trading volumes of large Canadian bond markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONJ20200506_C6", "description": "Weekly average of daily data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONT20250113": { "label": "Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113", "description": "Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar" }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The difference between US and Canadian interest rates is widening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C1", "description": "Policy rates differential implied by the overnight index swap, daily data\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: More investors are protecting themselves against the risk of further depreciation of the Canadian dollar", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C2", "description": "Weekly data\n\nNote: A negative (short) position will earn a profit if the value of the Canadian dollar depreciates over the life of the futures contract. A negative 3-month risk reversal indicates higher cost of protection against the downside risk compared with the upside risk in the Canadian dollar. CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Dealer economists expect the Canadian dollar to appreciate slightly by the end of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C3", "description": "Forecast levels of key economic variables at the end of 2025 (as of December 2024)\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and dealer forecasts" }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Over the past five tightening cycles, the US policy interest rate exceeded Canada’s", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C4", "description": "Note: Green shaded areas represent the divergence between the policy rates in the United States and Canada.\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: The increase in the foreign exchange risk premium was the main factor behind the depreciation of the Canadian dollar", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C5", "description": "Decomposition of cumulative change in model components since August 2024\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: The Canadian dollar tends to follow its peers and the relative strength of the US dollar", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C6", "description": "Decomposition of cumulative change in model components since August 2024\n\nSources: Refinitiv Eikon and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C7A": { "label": "Chart 7A: The effect of further policy divergence is modest if the exchange rate risk premium is kept constant", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C7A", "description": "a. Simulated divergence in the policy rates" }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C7B": { "label": "Chart 7B: The effect of further policy divergence is modest if the exchange rate risk premium is kept constant", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C7B", "description": "b. The effect on the Canadian dollar given the divergence in rates" }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Historically, periods of negative two-year yields spread have not led to a sharp depreciation of the Canadian dollar", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C8", "description": "Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_FONT20250113_C9": { "label": "Chart 9: Persistent change in the foreign exchange rate requires a fundamental shift in the economy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_FONT20250113_C9", "description": "Annual crude capital expenditures as a share of private gross fixed capital\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Rystad Ucube, Statistics Canada and Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis" }, "SAN_GACH20190516": { "label": "Assessing the Resilience of the Canadian Banking System", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GACH20190516", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_GACH20190516_C1": { "label": "Evolution of aggregate CET1 ratio in adverse scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GACH20190516_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nAggregate CET1 ratio before impact of 2nd-round effects\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_GACH20190516_C2": { "label": "Decomposition of peak-to-trough decline in aggregate CET1 ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GACH20190516_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n2018Q3–2020Q4\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_GACH20190516_C3": { "label": "Estimated credit losses for the 2019 FSAP scenario exceed those of recent historical stress episodes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GACH20190516_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nThree-year cumulative provisions for credit losses as a percentage of initial loans balances, excluding reverse repos\n\nNote: Historical credit loss experience excludes Desjardins.\n\nSources: Banks' regulatory filings and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_GACH20190516_C4": { "label": "The highest loss rates are incurred by Canadian business and consumer loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GACH20190516_C4", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nThree-year cumulative losses as a percentage of initial balances\n\nNote: home equity line of credit (HELOC)\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_GACH20190516_C5": { "label": "Pre-provision net revenue declines sharply in the first year of the scenario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GACH20190516_C5", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n$ billions" }, "SAN_GARO20180319": { "label": "Customer Liquidity Provision in Canadian Bond Markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GARO20180319", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "SAN_GARO20180319_CHART1": { "label": "Customer liquidity provision is rare across major Canadian bond classes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GARO20180319_CHART1", "description": "Customer liquidity provision is rare across major Canadian bond classes\nShare of customer liquidity provision as a share of total trading volumes\nThis file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: MTRS 2.0, Triton, estimate for US corporates is from Choi and Huh (2017)" }, "SAN_GARO20180319_CHART2": { "label": "Trades that draw on customer liquidity have higher average spreads", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GARO20180319_CHART2", "description": "Trades that draw on customer liquidity have higher average spreads\nVolume-weighted average spreads by liquidity source\nThis file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: MTRS 2.0, Triton" }, "SAN_GARO20180319_CHART3": { "label": "Using customer liquidity reduces dealer revenues", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GARO20180319_CHART3", "description": "Using customer liquidity reduces dealer revenues\nVolume-weighted per trade revenue by liquidity source\nThis file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: MTRS 2.0, Triton" }, "SAN_GARO20180319_CHART4": { "label": "Customer liquidity is more prevalent when liquidity is expensive", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GARO20180319_CHART4", "description": "Customer liquidity is more prevalent when liquidity is expensive\nVolume-weighted spreads for dealer-liquidity-supplied trades by day\nThis file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: MTRS 2.0, Triton" }, "SAN_GARO20180319_CHART5": { "label": "Customer liquidity is more prevalent when trading volumes are higher", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GARO20180319_CHART5", "description": "Customer liquidity is more prevalent when trading volumes are higher\nTrading volumes by day and type of liquidity in Billions of dollars\nThis file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: MTRS 2.0" }, "SAN_GIGN20221214": { "label": "Introducing the Bank of Canada Market Participants' Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GIGN20221214", "description": "Introducing the Bank of Canada Market Participants' Survey" }, "SAN_GIGN20221214_C1": { "label": "The survey panel is well diversified across different types of market participants.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GIGN20221214_C1", "description": "Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_GIGN20221214_C2": { "label": "Average probability of CPI inflation being in various ranges at the end of 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GIGN20221214_C2", "description": "What is the probability of annual total CPI inflation in Canada being in each of the following ranges at the end of 2023 and 2024\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GIGN20221214_C3": { "label": "Median probability of the economy being in a recession in different time frames", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GIGN20221214_C3", "description": "What is the probability of the Canadian and US economies being in a recession in each of the following time frames? A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GIGN20221214_C4": { "label": "Expected path for the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GIGN20221214_C4", "description": "What is your forecast for the Bank of Canada’s policy interest rate?\n\nResults are from the September 2022 Market Participants Survey. Overnight Index Swap data are from September 29, 2022.\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GIGN20221214_C4B": { "label": "C4B", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GIGN20221214_C4B", "description": "" }, "SAN_GOSS20190731": { "label": "The Formation of House Price Expectations in Canada: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GOSS20190731", "description": "" }, "SAN_GOSS20190731_C1A": { "label": "", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GOSS20190731_C1A", "description": "" }, "SAN_GOSS20190731_C1B": { "label": "", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GOSS20190731_C1B", "description": "" }, "SAN_GOSS20190731_C2A": { "label": "Treatment group (T1)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GOSS20190731_C2A", "description": "Relationship between 1-year revisions and 1-year perceptions gaps" }, "SAN_GOSS20190731_C2B": { "label": "Control Group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GOSS20190731_C2B", "description": "Relationship between 1-year revisions and 1-year perceptions gaps" }, "SAN_GOSS20190731_C3A": { "label": "Treatment group (T5)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GOSS20190731_C3A", "description": "Relationship between 5-year revisions and 5-year perceptions gapsAnnualized" }, "SAN_GOSS20190731_C3B": { "label": "Control Group", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GOSS20190731_C3B", "description": "Relationship between 5-year revisions and 5-year perceptions gapsAnnualized" }, "SAN_GOSS20190731_C4": { "label": "Comparison of updating behavior with historical persistence of house price growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GOSS20190731_C4", "description": "" }, "SAN_GRIE20230302": { "label": "What we can learn by linking firms’ reported emissions with their financial data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GRIE20230302", "description": "What we can learn by linking firms’ reported emissions with their financial data" }, "SAN_GRIE20230302_C1": { "label": "Relatively few firms generate the bulk of emissions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GRIE20230302_C1", "description": "Cumulative share of total reported scope 1 emissions\n\nMorgan Stanley Capital International, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GRIE20230302_C2": { "label": "Reported emissions are concentrated in two industries", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GRIE20230302_C2", "description": "Share of aggregate reported scope 1 emissions in 2019, by industry\n\nNote: Most emissions in the electric, gas and sanitary services industry are from firms that generate, transmit or distribute energy for sale (Standard Industrial Classification code 4911).\n\nFactSet, Morgan Stanley Capital International, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GRIE20230302_C3": { "label": "Equity is often the main funding source for firms that report emissions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GRIE20230302_C3", "description": "Proportion of equity, bonds and loans used as funding sources in 2019, by industry\n\nFactSet, Morgan Stanley Capital International, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GRIE20230302_C4": { "label": "Equity investors are increasingly taking emissions into account", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GRIE20230302_C4", "description": "Percentage change in the price-to-book ratio for a 1% change in emissions per year, by level of emissions\n\nThis chart plots β_1+2β_2 〖log⁡〖(emissions)〗〗_(i,t-1)+β_3×δ_t from the equation in the Appendix.\n\nFactSet, Morgan Stanley Capital International, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL20200624": { "label": "What COVID-19 revealed about the resilience of bond funds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20200624", "description": "What COVID-19 revealed about the resilience of bond funds" }, "SAN_GUIL20200624_C1": { "label": "The bulk of net redemptions occured before the announcement of the Bank's facilities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20200624_C1", "description": "Cumulative daily flows\n\nLast observation: July 7, 2020\n\nNotes: Vertical lines are the dates the programs/facilities were announced. For more details on the different programs, see the Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP), Contingent Term Repo Facility (CTRF) and Corporate Bond Purchase Program (CBPP). \nThe chart is based on the subsample of bond funds that report daily flows (approximately 70 percent of our sample by assets under management [AUM]). Full sample and subsample monthly outflows are similar.\n\nSources: Morningstar Direct and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL20200624_C2": { "label": "In March, 60 percent of bond funds experienced a decline of their cash holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20200624_C2", "description": "Last observation: March 2020\n\nSource: Morningstar Direct and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL20200624_C3": { "label": "The average liquidity ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2007", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20200624_C3", "description": "Annual data\n\nLast observation: June 2020\n\nNote: The liquidity ratio is cash and cash equivalents as a percentage of total assets. \nAll dates are year-end except 2020, which is data for March 2020.\n\nSource: Morningstar Direct and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL20210923": { "label": "The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20210923", "description": "The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program" }, "SAN_GUIL20210923_C1": { "label": "The announcement of the GBPP had a strong and immediate impact of GoC bond yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20210923_C1", "description": "Last observation: March 27, 2020\n\nNote: The blue triangles, yellow diamonds and green squares are calculated as the average yields over 15-minute intervals, while the red triangles are calculated as the average spreads over 5-minute intervals. GBPP is the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, GoC is the Government of Canada and OIS is the overnight index swap.\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities Ltd. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL20210923_C2": { "label": "Overnight index swap rates were close to 25 basis points before the announcement", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20210923_C2", "description": "Last observation: April 10, 2020\n\nNote: GBPP is the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program and OIS is the overnight index swap.\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_GUIL20210923_C3": { "label": "At announcement, yields of Government of Canada bonds with less than 10 years of remaining maturity fell by about 15 basis points", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20210923_C3", "description": "Last observation: August 31, 2021\n\nNote: The bars above the horizontal axis show the cumulative amount of each Government of Canada (GoC) security purchased (expressed as a percentage of that bond outstanding) under the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) between April 1, 2020 and August 31, 2021. The GoC bonds are indexed by their remaining maturity at the time of the announcement depicted on the horizontal axis. The bars below the horizontal axis show the change in intraday GoC yields on March 27, 2020 from market open to 10 a.m. ISIN stands for International Securities Identification Number.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL20210923_C4": { "label": "QE operations caused a drop in Government of Canada bond yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20210923_C4", "description": "Last observation: August 31, 2021\n\nNote : All results are economically and statistically significant at 5 percent except for purchases of 30-year bonds.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL20210923_C5": { "label": "The flow effect almost reversed four days following quantitative easing operations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL20210923_C5", "description": "Last observation: August 31, 2021\n\nNote: The chart shows the evolution of the flow effect over time. It plots the coefficients of direct purchases (i.e., of equation 2 in the appendix) of a specific Government of Canada bond, as a percentage of its amount outstanding, where the dependent variables are cumulative percentage price changes for that security from four days before the operation to four days after the operation. GBPP is the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20200921": { "label": "Canadian stock market sinceCOVID-19: Why a V-shaped price recovery?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20200921", "description": "Canadian stock market sinceCOVID-19: Why a V-shaped price recovery?" }, "SAN_GUIL_20200921_C1": { "label": "The TSX 300 has made up most of its losses since the February peak", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20200921_C1", "description": "Index = 100 (February 19, 2020)\n\nLast observation: 10 September 2020\n\nSource: Bloomberg" }, "SAN_GUIL_20200921_C2": { "label": "The discount rate has returned to pre-COVID level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20200921_C2", "description": "Last observation: August 10, 2020\n\nSources: Blomberg, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20200921_C3": { "label": "Tail risk probabilities mirror the discount rate swing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20200921_C3", "description": "Left and right tail probabilities, 10% price move, 90-day horizon, 21-day moving average\n\nLast observation: September 10, 2020\n\nSources: Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20200921_C4": { "label": "Short-term earnings per share dowward revisions were pronounced...", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20200921_C4", "description": "Average of TSX firms\n\nLast observation: 10 September 2020\n\nSources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculation" }, "SAN_GUIL_20200921_C5": { "label": "... and more severe than during the GFC", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20200921_C5", "description": "Average of TSX firms" }, "SAN_GUIL_20200921_C6A": { "label": "Earning Forecasts Guide Stock Valuations(All industries)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20200921_C6A", "description": " " }, "SAN_GUIL_20200921_C7": { "label": "The decline of interest rates helped offset the rise in risk premium", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20200921_C7", "description": "Daily data\n\nLast observation: August 10, 2020\n\nSources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20210318": { "label": "What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210318", "description": "What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19?" }, "SAN_GUIL_20210318_C1": { "label": "TSX appreciation since September is largely due to positive earnings revisions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210318_C1", "description": "Last observation: March 12, 2021\n\nSources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20210318_C2": { "label": "Positive revisions to earnings forecasts peaked in November", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210318_C2", "description": "Last observation: March 1, 2021\n\nNote: Using forecasts for one year ahead, we calculate the earnings revision ratio as follows: the number of positive revisions minus the number of negative revisions divided by the total number of revisions.\n\nSources: Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20210923": { "label": "The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210923", "description": "The impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchase Program" }, "SAN_GUIL_20210923_C1": { "label": "The announcement of the GBPP had a strong and immediate impact of GoC bond yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210923_C1", "description": "Last observation: March 27, 2020\n\nNote: The blue triangles, yellow diamonds and green squares are calculated as the average yields over 15-minute intervals, while the red triangles are calculated as the average spreads over 5-minute intervals. GBPP is the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, GoC is the Government of Canada and OIS is the overnight index swap.\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities Ltd. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20210923_C2": { "label": "Overnight index swap rates were close to 25 basis points before the announcement", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210923_C2", "description": "Last observation: April 10, 2020\n\nNote: GBPP is the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program and OIS is the overnight index swap.\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_GUIL_20210923_C3": { "label": "At announcement, yields of short- to medium-term Government of Canada bonds (1 to 5 years) fell more than those of long-term bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210923_C3", "description": "Last observation: August 31, 2021\n\nNote: The bars above the horizontal axis show the cumulative amount of each Government of Canada (GoC) security purchased (expressed as a percentage of that bond outstanding) under the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program (GBPP) between April 1, 2020 and August 31, 2021. The GoC bonds are indexed by their remaining maturity at the time of the announcement depicted on the horizontal axis. The bars below the horizontal axis show the change in intraday GoC yields on March 27, 2020 from market open to 10 a.m. ISIN stands for International Securities Identification Number.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20210923_C4": { "label": "QE operations caused a drop in Government of Canada bond yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210923_C4", "description": "Last observation: August 31, 2021\n\nNote : All results are economically and statistically significant at 5 percent except for purchases of 30-year bonds.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUIL_20210923_C5": { "label": "The flow effect almost reversed four days following quantitative easing operations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUIL_20210923_C5", "description": "Last observation: August 31, 2021\n\nNote: The chart shows the evolution of the flow effect over time. It plots the coefficients of direct purchases (i.e., of equation 2 in the appendix) of a specific Government of Canada bond, as a percentage of its amount outstanding, where the dependent variables are cumulative percentage price changes for that security from four days before the operation to four days after the operation. GBPP is the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_GUNG20171001": { "label": "Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUNG20171001", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSOURCES: CanDeal, Canadian Depository for Securities (CDS), Bank of Canada calculations.\nThe CanDeal data cover the period from January 2007 to December 2016 and capture intraday quotes of bid and ask prices as well as transaction information (such as price, quantity and trade direction) for trades conducted between institutional investors and dealers.\nThe transactions data from CDS include trade price and traded quantity over the period from October 2009 to January 2017." }, "SAN_GUNG20171001_CHART1": { "label": "Bid-ask spreads for benchmark and non-benchmark bonds in basis points.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUNG20171001_CHART1", "description": "Sources: CanDeal and Bank of Canada calculations.\n21-day moving average, daily data.\nThe reported values for benchmark and non-benchmark bonds are the average of all bonds in each category with 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y maturities." }, "SAN_GUNG20171001_CHART2": { "label": "Average price impact (Kyle’s lambda) of trades of $1 million in basis points.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUNG20171001_CHART2", "description": "Sources: CanDeal and Bank of Canada calculations.\n21-day moving average, daily data." }, "SAN_GUNG20171001_CHART3": { "label": "Price-impact (Amihud’s measure) and bid-ask (Roll’s measure) in cents.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUNG20171001_CHART3", "description": "Sources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations." }, "SAN_GUNG20171001_CHART4": { "label": "Average trading volume and trade size.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_GUNG20171001_CHART4", "description": "Sources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations.\n21-day moving average, daily data." }, "SAN_HOSO20190918": { "label": "Home Equity Extraction and Household Spending in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HOSO20190918", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_HOSO20190918_C1": { "label": "Annual growth in household spending and house prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HOSO20190918_C1", "description": "4-week moving average, weekly data" }, "SAN_HOSO20190918_C2": { "label": "Total equity extraction in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HOSO20190918_C2", "description": "" }, "SAN_HOSO20190918_C3A": { "label": "Extensive and intensive margins of equity extraction, Mortgage refinancing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HOSO20190918_C3A", "description": "" }, "SAN_HOSO20190918_C3B": { "label": "Extensive and intensive margins of equity extraction, HELOCs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HOSO20190918_C3B", "description": "" }, "SAN_HOSO20190918_C4": { "label": "Number of refinancing equity extractors (2013 = 100)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HOSO20190918_C4", "description": "" }, "SAN_HOSO20190918_C5": { "label": "Contribution of increased equity extraction to household spending", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HOSO20190918_C5", "description": "% difference between observed and counterfactual levels of spending" }, "SAN_HUGH20221117": { "label": "Potential benefits and key risks of fiat-referenced cryptoassets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HUGH20221117", "description": "Potential benefits and key risks of fiat-referenced cryptoassets" }, "SAN_HUGH20221117_C1": { "label": "Prices of cryptoassets are much more volatile than fiat currencies and traditional assets such as equities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HUGH20221117_C1", "description": "Average volatility from January 2020 to November 2022 (%)\n\nVIX is included because it is a measure of stock market volatility, based on options of the S&P 500 index.\n\nFederal Reserve Economic Data, CoinMarketCap, and Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_HUGH20221117_C2": { "label": "In May 2022, the algorithmic fiat-referenced cryptoasset TerraUSD deviated strongly from its peg after investors lost confidence in their ability to redeem their funds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HUGH20221117_C2", "description": "TerraUSD price against US dollar\n\nThe chart tracks TerraUSD hourly over seven days from May 7th to May 13th, 2022.\n\nCoinMarketCap" }, "SAN_HUGH20221117_C3": { "label": "Global market capitalization for fiat-referenced cryptoassets is equal to over one-quarter of Canadian demand deposits", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HUGH20221117_C3", "description": "SPTSX60 (also known as the S&P/TSX 60 Index) is a stock market index of the 60 largest and most liquid stocks listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.\n\nFederal Reserve Economic Data, CoinMarketCap, Bloomberg Finance L.P., and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_HUGH20221117_C4": { "label": "Roughly half of the trading done in cryptoasset markets involves fiat-referenced cryptoassets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HUGH20221117_C4", "description": "Share of trading volume by cryptoasset type\n\nGlassnode" }, "SAN_HUGH20221117_C5": { "label": "The top 1% of investors hold around 90% of the largest fiat-referenced cryptoassets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_HUGH20221117_C5", "description": "Percentage share held by top 1% of investors\n\nGlassnode" }, "SAN_JABS20181014": { "label": "The Impact of Surprising Monetary Policy Announcements on Exchange Rate Volatility", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JABS20181014", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_JABS20181014_C1": { "label": "Excess CAD/USD volatility in the hours after surprising FAD releases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JABS20181014_C1", "description": "Note: CAD/USD is the Canadian/US dollar exchange rate; FAD is fixed announcement date.\n\nSources: Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_JABS20181014_C2": { "label": "Excess CAD/USD bid-ask spread in the hours after surprising FAD releases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JABS20181014_C2", "description": "Note: CAD/USD is the Canadian/US dollar exchange rate; FAD is fixed announcement date.\n\nSources: Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_JABS20181014_C3": { "label": "Excess CAD/USD volatility in the hours after surprising FOMC, CPI and GDP releases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JABS20181014_C3", "description": "Note: CAD/USD is the Canadian/US dollar exchange rate; FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee; CPI is consumer price index, GDP is gross domestic product.\n\nSources: Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_JABS20181014_C4": { "label": "Excess CAD/USD bid-ask spread in the hours after surprising FOMC, CPI and GDP releases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JABS20181014_C4", "description": "Note: CAD/USD is the Canadian/US dollar exchange rate; FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee; CPI is consumer price index, GDP is gross domestic product.\n\nSources: Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_JAME20200703": { "label": "Is the stock market pricing in a V-shaped recovery?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JAME20200703", "description": "Is the stock market pricing in a V-shaped recovery?" }, "SAN_JAME20200703_C1": { "label": "Value stocks have sharply underperformed growth stocks in the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JAME20200703_C1", "description": "Sources: Kenneth French data library and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_JAME20200703_C2": { "label": "Performance of 25 portfolios by size and the ratio of book to market equity(BE/ME)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JAME20200703_C2", "description": "Sources: Kenneth French data library and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726": { "label": "Reaching for yield or resiliency? Explaining the shift in Canadian pension plan portfolios", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726", "description": "Reaching for yield or resiliency? Explaining the shift in Canadian pension plan portfolios" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_C1": { "label": "Pension plan solvency surpluses turned into deficits as interest rates declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_C1", "description": "Last observation: 2018\n\nNote: The solvency and going concern ratios (left axis) and the solvency discount rate (right axis) are the median ratios of all 128 plans.\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_C2": { "label": "Pension plans shifted their portfolio allocations between 2004 and 2018", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_C2", "description": "Last observation: 2018\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_C3": { "label": "Plans that shifted since 2004 now hold a majority of bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_C3", "description": "Last observation: 2018\n\nNote: “Real estate” and “Other” were combined as “Alternatives” to depict a trend in non-traditional asset classes. Asset allocations are plotted as the median allocations for each group.\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_C4": { "label": "Large Shifter plans are more resilient to solvency risk", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_C4", "description": "Last observation: 2018\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_C5": { "label": "Large shifter plans forgo expected return but remain in a going-concern surplus", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_C5", "description": "Last observation: 2018\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_C6": { "label": "Plans that shift are more mature and manage more of their assets in-house", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_C6", "description": "Last observation: 2018\n\nNote: “Retired members” is the median proportion of retired plan members between 2016 and 2018. “In-house management” is the median proportion of assets managed internally, proxied as the proportion of stock and bond investments held directly.\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_CA1": { "label": "Large shifter plans pay lower special cash contributions but restore solvency", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_CA1", "description": "Five-year cumulative special contributions, in percent of solvency liabilities\n\nLast observation: 2018\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_CA2": { "label": "Mature pension plans that shifted portfolios do not have more volatile solvency surplus", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_CA2", "description": "Last observation: 2018\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JEAN20210726_CA3": { "label": "The median solvency rate is similar for non-, moderate and large shifter plans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JEAN20210726_CA3", "description": "Last observation: 2018\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions pension fund data" }, "SAN_JLAC20180528": { "label": "Applying the Wage-Common to Canadian Provinces", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JLAC20180528", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_JLEE20190930": { "label": "Borrowing Costs for Government of Canada Treasury Bills", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JLEE20190930", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "SAN_JLEE20190930_C1": { "label": "Average daily repo volume at different ranges of borrowing costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JLEE20190930_C1", "description": " " }, "SAN_JLEE20190930_C2": { "label": "Factors contributing to borrowing costs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JLEE20190930_C2", "description": "The relative importance of all factors sums to 100% for each security type\n\nNote: Security characteristics and trading conditions include security identifiers, time to maturity, amount outstanding, settlement fails, and measures of liquidity and relative value. The impact of who is trading with whom is measured using fixed effects for each pair of parties involved in a repo. General market conditions include the volatility index, bank funding costs and the timing of policy interest rate announcements. See the Appendix for details." }, "SAN_JLEE20190930_C3A": { "label": "Statistics of repo relationships based on their usage of t-bills", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JLEE20190930_C3A", "description": "Share of relationships\n\nUsage of t-bills (as % of total repo volume for GoC securities with maturities of 1 year or less)" }, "SAN_JLEE20190930_C3B": { "label": "Statistics of repo relationships based on their usage of t-bills", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JLEE20190930_C3B", "description": "Share of total repo volume\n\nUsage of t-bills (as % of total repo volume for GoC securities with maturities of 1 year or less)" }, "SAN_JLEE20190930_C3C": { "label": "Statistics of repo relationships based on their usage of t-bills", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_JLEE20190930_C3C", "description": "Average borrowing cost (basis points)\n\nUsage of t-bills (as % of total repo volume for GoC securities with maturities of 1 year or less)" }, "SAN_KHAM20200512": { "label": "Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID-19", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KHAM20200512", "description": "Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID-19" }, "SAN_KHAM20200512_C1": { "label": "Change in the number of employment insurance beneficiaries in Fort McMurray", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KHAM20200512_C1", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_KHAM20200512_C2": { "label": "Mortgage arrears rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KHAM20200512_C2", "description": "Sources: TransUnion Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: December 2017" }, "SAN_KHAM20200512_C3": { "label": "Months of mortgage payments using liquid assets, by occupation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KHAM20200512_C3", "description": "Source: Statistics Canada, special tabulation based on the 2016 Survey of Financial Security" }, "SAN_KHAM20200512_C4": { "label": "Distribution of authorized HELOC amounts by utilization rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KHAM20200512_C4", "description": "Sources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks (J2 return) and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2019Q4" }, "SAN_KHAM20200512_C5": { "label": "Simulated mortgage arrears rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KHAM20200512_C5", "description": "Source: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_KOST20190306": { "label": "The State of Labour Market Churn in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\n\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n\nThe Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observations: September 2018\n\n\nCHART 1\nThe likelihood of changing jobs in Canada has risen following the oil price shock\n\nJob changers, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 2\nJob-to-job transitions have risen for prime-age and older workers but remain weak for youth\n\nJob-to-job transitions, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 3\nJob-finding rates recovered strongly between 2016–17 in Canada, but have recently moderated slightly\n\nUnemployment to employment transitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 4\nMovements from not in the labour force to employment have trended down since the early 2000s in Canada\n\nNot in the labour force to employment transitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 5\nJob separations have trended down in Canada\n\nTransitions, percent of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 6\nTransitions from employment into unemployment by reason in Canada\n\nTransitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 7\nTransitions from employment to not in the labour force by reason in Canada\n\nTransitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 8\nWage growth for job changers tends to be higher than for job stayers in Canada\n\nAverage hourly earnings, year-over-year wage growth (aggregate and stayers); average hourly earnings following job change, year-over-year growth, 12-month moving average (red line); monthly data\n\n\nCHART 9\nWage growth for job changers tends to be weak around periods of negative real GDP growth in Canada\n\n12-month weighted average of monthly wage gains following a job change, monthly data, per cent\n\nNote: weights are based on the share of changers in a given month relative to the total changers in a 12-month period.\n\n\nCHART 1-A\nThe likelihood of changing jobs and earning higher wages in Canada has recovered after the oil price shock\n\nJob changers, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, employees only, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\n\nNote:\nDotted lines represent pre-crisis 10-year average. One is considered to have higher wages if one's hourly wage was 4.36 per cent higher following a job change, which represents one standard deviation of the average month-over-month wage growth for job changers.\n\n\nCHART 2-A\nJob changers as a percentage of continuously employed, by province\n\nJob changers, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, 12-month moving average, unadjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 2-B\nJob changers as a percentage of continuously employed, by province\n\nJob changers, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, 12-month moving average, unadjusted, monthly data\n\n\nCHART 2-C\nA higher pace of job-to-job churn is associated with higher provincial wage growth\n\nJob changers as a percentage of those continuously employed between two months by province, average 2018 in deviation from 10-year pre-crisis average, seasonally adjusted; wage-common, year-over-year, average 2018 \n\ny-axis: Wage common by province, average 2018, year-over-year, %\n\nx-axis: Deviation of job-to-job transitions as a share of continuously employed from 10-year pre-crisis average, %\n\nNote: For more details on the construction of wage-common by province see Lachine (2018).\n\n\nCHART A-1\nThe likelihood of becoming involuntarily part-time remains elevated in Canada\n\nTransitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C1": { "label": "The likelihood of changing jobs in Canada has risen following the oil price shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nJob changers, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C1-A": { "label": "The likelihood of changing jobs and earning higher wages in Canada has recovered after the oil price shock", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C1-A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nJob changers, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, employees only, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018\n\nNote:\nDotted lines represent pre-crisis 10-year average. One is considered to have higher wages if one's hourly wage was 4.36 per cent higher following a job change, which represents one standard deviation of the average month-over-month wage growth for job changers." }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C2": { "label": "Job-to-job transitions have risen for prime-age and older workers but remain weak for youth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nJob-to-job transitions, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C2-A": { "label": "Job changers as a percentage of continuously employed, by province", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C2-A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nJob changers, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, 12-month moving average, unadjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C2-B": { "label": "Job changers as a percentage of continuously employed, by province", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C2-B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nJob changers, percentage of those continuously employed between two months, 12-month moving average, unadjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C2-C": { "label": "A higher pace of job-to-job churn is associated with higher provincial wage growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C2-C", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nJob changers as a percentage of those continuously employed between two months by province, average 2018 in deviation from 10-year pre-crisis average, seasonally adjusted; wage-common, year-over-year, average 2018 \n\ny-axis: Wage common by province, average 2018, year-over-year, %\n\nx-axis: Deviation of job-to-job transitions as a share of continuously employed from 10-year pre-crisis average, %\n\nNote: For more details on the construction of wage-common by province see Lachine (2018).\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C3": { "label": "Job-finding rates recovered strongly between 2016–17 in Canada, but have recently moderated slightly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nUnemployment to employment transitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C4": { "label": "Movements from not in the labour force to employment have trended down since the early 2000s in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C4", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nNot in the labour force to employment transitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C5": { "label": "Job separations have trended down in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C5", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nTransitions, percent of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C6": { "label": "Transitions from employment into unemployment by reason in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C6", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nTransitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C7": { "label": "Transitions from employment to not in the labour force by reason in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C7", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nTransitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C8": { "label": "Wage growth for job changers tends to be higher than for job stayers in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C8", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nAverage hourly earnings, year-over-year wage growth (aggregate and stayers); average hourly earnings following job change, year-over-year growth, 12-month moving average (red line); monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_C9": { "label": "Wage growth for job changers tends to be weak around periods of negative real GDP growth in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_C9", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n12-month weighted average of monthly wage gains following a job change, monthly data, per cent\n\nNote: weights are based on the share of changers in a given month relative to the total changers in a 12-month period.\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KOST20190306_CA-1": { "label": "The likelihood of becoming involuntarily part-time remains elevated in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KOST20190306_CA-1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nTransitions, percentage of initial state, six-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources:\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: September 2018" }, "SAN_KROH20240301": { "label": "Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums and Global Currency Factors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KROH20240301", "description": "Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums and Global Currency Factors" }, "SAN_KROH20240301_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Time-varying explanatory power of global currency factors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KROH20240301_C1", "description": "Adjusted R2 based on rolling regression (window length = 252 days)\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_KROH20240301_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Time-varying exposure to global currency factors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KROH20240301_C2", "description": "Exposure based on rolling regression (window length = 252 days)\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_KROH20240301_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Average marginal contribution of global currency factors and fixed announcement dates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_KROH20240301_C3", "description": "Average adjusted R2 obtained by extending window regressions using data up to each fixed announcement\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_LAMA20250603": { "label": "Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603", "description": "Assessing tariff pass-through to consumer prices in Canada: Lessons from 2018" }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C1A": { "label": "Chart 1: Illustrative examples of the impact of the 2018 tariffs on consumer prices, by representative product - a. Temporary impact", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C1A", "description": "Actual and synthetic (counterfactual) prices; index: July 2017–June 2018 average = 1; vertical lines denote tariff period" }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C1B": { "label": "Chart 1: Illustrative examples of the impact of the 2018 tariffs on consumer prices, by representative product - b. Persistent impact", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C1B", "description": "Actual and synthetic (counterfactual) prices; index: July 2017–June 2018 average = 1; vertical lines denote tariff period" }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C1C": { "label": "Chart 1: Illustrative examples of the impact of the 2018 tariffs on consumer prices, by representative product - c. No impact", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C1C", "description": "Actual and synthetic (counterfactual) prices; index: July 2017–June 2018 average = 1; vertical lines denote tariff period" }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Impact of tariffs on representative product prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C2", "description": "Price increases by item (in percent)\n\nNote: Items with no positive or significant impact (p < 0.05) include automatic washer, bedsheets, dryer, electric lawn mower, electric range, pickles, orange juice, refrigerator - top mount freezer, refrigerator - bottom mount freezer, roasted coffee, and shaving cream." }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C3A": { "label": "Chart 3: Tariff pass-through by major category - a. Total", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C3A", "description": "Range and midpoint estimates per quarter\n\nNote: Shaded areas represent the range of estimates; solid lines represent the estimated midpoints." }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C3B": { "label": "Chart 3: Tariff pass-through by major category - b. Food", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C3B", "description": "Range and midpoint estimates per quarter\n\nNote: Shaded areas represent the range of estimates; solid lines represent the estimated midpoints." }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C3C": { "label": "Chart 3: Tariff pass-through by major category - c. Durable goods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C3C", "description": "Range and midpoint estimates per quarter\n\nNote: Shaded areas represent the range of estimates; solid lines represent the estimated midpoints." }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C3D": { "label": "Chart 3: Tariff pass-through by major category - d.\tSemi- and non-durable goods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C3D", "description": "Range and midpoint estimates per quarter\n\nNote: Shaded areas represent the range of estimates; solid lines represent the estimated midpoints." }, "SAN_LAMA20250603_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Average tariff pass-through to consumer prices, conditional on positive price impacts only", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LAMA20250603_C4", "description": "" }, "SAN_LEBM180118": { "label": "Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBM180118", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Haver Analytics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Canada calculations.\nNote from the author(s):\nDates for Chart 2 are arbitrary and not associated with any particular time period. It displays a hypothetical shock in 2018 and its associated responses over 3 subsequent years." }, "SAN_LEBM180118_CHART1": { "label": "Canadian excess bond premium is highly informative about the outlook for Canadian GDP", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBM180118_CHART1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Haver Analytics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Canada calculations." }, "SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2A": { "label": "Real GDP", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Haver Analytics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Canada calculations.\nNote from the author(s):\nDates for Chart 2 are arbitrary and not associated with any particular time period. It displays a hypothetical shock in 2018 and its associated responses over 3 subsequent years." }, "SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2B": { "label": "Headline consumer price index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Haver Analytics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Canada calculations.\nNote from the author(s):\nDates for Chart 2 are arbitrary and not associated with any particular time period. It displays a hypothetical shock in 2018 and its associated responses over 3 subsequent years." }, "SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2C": { "label": "Canadian excess bond premium", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2C", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Haver Analytics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Canada calculations.\nNote from the author(s):\nDates for Chart 2 are arbitrary and not associated with any particular time period. It displays a hypothetical shock in 2018 and its associated responses over 3 subsequent years." }, "SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2D": { "label": "S&P/TSX composite index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2D", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Haver Analytics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Canada calculations.\nNote from the author(s):\nDates for Chart 2 are arbitrary and not associated with any particular time period. It displays a hypothetical shock in 2018 and its associated responses over 3 subsequent years." }, "SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2E": { "label": "10-year Government of Canada yield", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2E", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Haver Analytics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Canada calculations.\nNote from the author(s):\nDates for Chart 2 are arbitrary and not associated with any particular time period. It displays a hypothetical shock in 2018 and its associated responses over 3 subsequent years." }, "SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2F": { "label": "Overnight rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBM180118_CHART2F", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources:\nBloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg Finance L.P./Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Haver Analytics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Bank of Canada calculations.\nNote from the author(s):\nDates for Chart 2 are arbitrary and not associated with any particular time period. It displays a hypothetical shock in 2018 and its associated responses over 3 subsequent years." }, "SAN_LEBO20180425": { "label": "How do Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds Meet Investor Redemptions?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20180425", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSOURCES: Bloomberg, Morningstar, Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations." }, "SAN_LEBO20180425_C1": { "label": "Fund's holdings change in basis point in response to a one standard deviation increase in redemptions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20180425_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSOURCES: Bloomberg, Morningstar, Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations.\nLiquid assets tend to be the primary liquidity tool for CCBFs to manage redemptions." }, "SAN_LEBO20180425_C2": { "label": "Fund's holdings change in basis point in response to a one standard deviation increase in redemptions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20180425_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSOURCES: Bloomberg, Morningstar, Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations.\nHowever, CCBFs also sell less-liquid assets during periods of high volatility" }, "SAN_LEBO20180425_F1A": { "label": "Horizontal slicing strategy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20180425_F1A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSOURCES: Bloomberg, Morningstar, Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations.\nFund managers can adopt different strategies to meet investor redemptions -- Horizontal Slicing Strategy. We assume a fund facing 15 per cent of redemptions at time t." }, "SAN_LEBO20180425_F1B": { "label": "Vertical slicing strategy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20180425_F1B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSOURCES: Bloomberg, Morningstar, Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations.\nFund managers can adopt different strategies to meet investor redemptions -- Vertical Slicing Strategy" }, "SAN_LEBO20190110": { "label": "Liquidity Management of Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds: A Machine Learning Approach", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20190110", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "SAN_LEBO20190110_C1": { "label": "Drivers of liquidity-management decisions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20190110_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nThe importance score of all variables sums to 1.\n\nLast observation: 2016Q1\n\nSources: Morningstar and Haver" }, "SAN_LEBO20190831": { "label": "Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20190831", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_LEBO20190831_C1": { "label": "Market-based risk measures are highly correlated but diverge at times", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20190831_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nStandardized values\nSources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics and Bank of canada calculations\nLast observation: December 2018" }, "SAN_LEBO20190831_C2": { "label": "MBI is highly informative about the outlook for business loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20190831_C2", "description": "Adjusted R-squared of regressions with different market-based risk measures\n \nSources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics and Bank of canada calculations\nLast observation: December 2018" }, "SAN_LEBO20190831_C3A": { "label": "Business loans", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20190831_C3A", "description": "Responses over 3 years\n\nNotes: The charts depict the response of a one-standard-deviation orthogonalized shock to the MBI.\n\nResponses of GDP and business loans have been cumulated. The 95% confidence interval is shown with dashed lines. \n\nSources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_LEBO20190831_C3B": { "label": "GDP", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20190831_C3B", "description": "Responses over 3 years\n\nNotes: The charts depict the response of a one-standard-deviation orthogonalized shock to the MBI.\n\nResponses of GDP and business loans have been cumulated. The 95% confidence interval is shown with dashed lines. \n\nSources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_LEBO20191216": { "label": "Creations and Redemptions in Fixed-Income Exchange-Traded Funds: A Shift from Bonds to Cash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20191216", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "SAN_LEBO20191216_C1": { "label": "Cash creations are significant", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20191216_C1", "description": "" }, "SAN_LEBO20191216_C2": { "label": "Cash funds create ETF shares almost exclusively in cash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20191216_C2", "description": "" }, "SAN_LEBO20191216_C3": { "label": "Cash funds exist across all FI-ETF types", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20191216_C3", "description": "" }, "SAN_LEBO20191216_C4": { "label": "Across FI-ETFs, new issuers create more in cash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20191216_C4", "description": "" }, "SAN_LEBO20191216_C5": { "label": "Across FI-ETFs, young funds create more in cash", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20191216_C5", "description": "" }, "SAN_LEBO20200527": { "label": "Will the rise of ETFs shape the future of bond dealing?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20200527", "description": "Will the rise of ETFs shape the future of bond dealing?" }, "SAN_LEBO20200527_C1": { "label": "ETF warehousing, proxied by portfolio trading, is small but growing rapidly in United States.", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LEBO20200527_C1", "description": "Note: The analysis for identifying potential bond warehousing transactions follows a methodology featured in "Wall Street's New Balance Sheet is an ETF" by Lisa Abramowicz (May 25, 2016).\n\nSources: Bloomberg, FINRA and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2019" }, "SAN_LYOJ20210218": { "label": "The Bank of Canada COVID-19 stringency index: measuring policy response across provinces", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LYOJ20210218", "description": "" }, "SAN_LYOJ20210218_C1": { "label": "The Bank’s national stringency index is lower than OxCGRT for most of the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LYOJ20210218_C1", "description": "" }, "SAN_LYOJ20210218_C2": { "label": "Across most regions, containment measures have increased recently in response to higher virus transmission rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_LYOJ20210218_C2", "description": " " }, "SAN_MARU20240305": { "label": "What has been putting upward pressure on CORRA?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MARU20240305", "description": "What has been putting upward pressure on CORRA?" }, "SAN_MARU20240305_C1": { "label": "Increased demand for repo funding was putting upward pressure on CORRA", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MARU20240305_C1", "description": "FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee; repo is repurchase agreement; CORRA is the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_MARU20240305_C2": { "label": "The increased demand in repo funding came from hedge funds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MARU20240305_C2", "description": "FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee; repo is repurchase agreement; CORRA is the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_MARU20240305_C3": { "label": "Government of Canada yields reached levels last seen over 10 years ago", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MARU20240305_C3", "description": "Bloomberg" }, "SAN_MARU20240305_C4": { "label": "Upward pressure on CORRA increased as Canada’s six largest banks increased their net long positions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MARU20240305_C4", "description": "Increase in long positions, likely in anticipation of global central bank rate cuts\n\nNote: FOMC is Federal Open Market Committee; Big Six are Canada’s six largest banks; CORRA is the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average.\n\nOffice of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Collateral and Pledging Report (H4) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MARU20240305_C5": { "label": "Three-month CORRA-SOFR cross-currency basis swap has tightened since autumn 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MARU20240305_C5", "description": "CORRA is the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average; SOFR is Secured Overnight Financing Rate.\n\nBloomberg" }, "SAN_MARU20240305_C6": { "label": "Two primary dealers provide the majority of cash in the overnight general collateral market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MARU20240305_C6", "description": "Percentage of daily total overnight general collateral reverse repos (from the perspective of primary dealers)\n\nRepo is repurchase agreement.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System 2.0" }, "SAN_MARU20240305_C7": { "label": "Settlement balances of the top three Lynx participants have remained stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MARU20240305_C7", "description": "Percentage of total Lynx settlement balances, monthly data\n\nPayments Canada and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_MAYU20220414": { "label": "How well can large banks in Canada withstand a severe economic downturn?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MAYU20220414", "description": "How well can large banks in Canada withstand a severe economic downturn?" }, "SAN_MAYU20220414_C1": { "label": "Weak demand for credit eventually leads to lower outstanding balances across all loan categories", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MAYU20220414_C1", "description": "Index: 2020Q4 = 100\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MAYU20220414_C2": { "label": "Estimated credit loss rates in the risk scenario are higher than observed during previous major downturns", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MAYU20220414_C2", "description": "Three-year cumulative provision for credit losses as a percentage of initial loan balances, by product lines\n\nCredit losses were realized between 1993Q3 and 1994Q2\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MAYU20220414_C3": { "label": "In the risk scenario, capital ratios breach the capital conservation buffer but remain above the regulatory minimum", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MAYU20220414_C3", "description": "Common equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital as a share of risk-weighted assets\n\nThe yellow horizontal line reflects the domestic stability buffer level that was effective in 2020Q4 and the level assumed in our risk scenarios. The capital conservation buffer includes the additional surcharge for domestic systemically important banks.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MAYU20220414_C4": { "label": "The decline in the common equity Tier 1 capital ratio in the risk scenario is primarily due to higher credit losses", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MAYU20220414_C4", "description": "Decomposition of the decline in the aggregate CET1 capital ratio between 2020Q4 and 2023Q4\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412": { "label": "COVID-19’s impact on the financial health of Canadian businesses: An initial assessment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412", "description": "COVID-19’s impact on the financial health of Canadian businesses: An initial assessment" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C1": { "label": "Many firms in the service sector experienced a large drop in revenues as a result of the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C1", "description": "Distribution of changes in business revenue, by industry\n\nLast observation: December 2020\n\nSource: Statistics Canada" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C10": { "label": "The number of businesses filing for insolvency declined by nearly 25 percent in 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C10", "description": "Business insolvency filings (proposals or bankruptcies), annual data\n\nLast observation: December 2020\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy via Haver Analytics" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C11": { "label": "The share of outstanding loans to firms unlikely to make payments has remained low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C11", "description": "Major banks' non-performing loans as a share of total loans for the non-financial corporate sector, quarterly data\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nSources: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C12": { "label": "Provisions for credit losses on performing loans have started to unwind", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C12", "description": "Provisions for credit losses on business loans by major banks, quarterly data\n\nLast observation: 2021Q1\n\nSource: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C13": { "label": "Market-based measures of default risks are back near pre-pandemic levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C13", "description": "Market-based measures of median distance to default for larger publicly listed firms, by industry\n\nLast observation: March 22, 2021\n\nNote: Values close to zero indicate a high probability of default.\n\nSources: Refinitiv and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C14": { "label": "Simulations suggest that firm leverage could become more polarized as the pandemic persists", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C14", "description": "Distribution of firms according to their actual and simulated leverage\n\nLast observation: 2020Q3\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C15": { "label": "The number of zombie firms in Canada has risen in recent years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C15", "description": "Share of zombie firms in Canada, based on two definitions, quarterly data\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nNote: The broad definition identifies a zombie firm as old and persistently unable to generate enough income to make its interest payments. Under the narrow definition, a firm's profitability must also be expected to remain weak in the future. See Grieder and Ortega (2020).\n\nSources: Compustat and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C2": { "label": "Firms in hardest-hit industries made greater use of government programs to manage cash flow pressures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C2", "description": "Percentage change in GDP and use of government programs, by industry\n\nLast observation: September 2020\n\nNote: Program information reflects data as of September 18 for CEBA, September 28 for CEWS and September 2 for CECRA.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C3": { "label": "Borrowing rates declined in the spring of 2020 and have remained low", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C3", "description": "Interest rates on bank loans and corporate bonds, monthly data\n\nLast observation: February 2021\n\nNote: Major banks in this chart represent Canada's six largest banks, legally designated as domestic systemically important banks (or D-SIBs).\n\nSources: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Intercontinental Exchange Bank of America Merrill Lynch" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C4": { "label": "Bank lending increased sharply in March 2020 but fell as bond issuance picked up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C4", "description": "Growth in loans and bonds, monthly data\n\nLast observation: September 2020\n\nNote: Loan data include mortgage and non-mortgage loans from all lenders to non-financial corporations. Debt securities include both long-term bonds and short-term securities issued by non-financial corporations.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C5": { "label": "Governments became the key supplier of additional loans to firms", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C5", "description": "Flow of non-mortgage loans to businesses by originating sector, quarterly data\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nSource: Statistics Canada" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C6": { "label": "Small business demand for credit increased in the fourth quarter of 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C6", "description": "Demand for credit from businesses, balance of opinion, quarterly data\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nNote: Balance of opinion means the percentage of respondents reporting an increase in the demand for credit minus the percentage reporting a decrease in the demand for credit.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C7": { "label": "The business sector's balance sheet has held up well", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C7", "description": "Indicators corporate leverage and liquidity, quarterly data\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nSource: Statistics Canada" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C8": { "label": "Total cash holdings have increased substantially", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C8", "description": "Change in various components of corporate balance sheets, 2019Q4 to 2020Q4\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nSource: Statistics Canada" }, "SAN_MIKA20210412_C9": { "label": "Changes in cash holdings among publicly traded firms have been uneven", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210412_C9", "description": "Change in aggregate cash holdings over 2020, by percentile groups\n\nLast observation: 2020Q4\n\nSources: Compustat and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20210428_C1": { "label": "The HPEI was informative during the most recent house price cycle in the GTA", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20210428_C1", "description": "Last observation: January 2021\n\nNote: HPEI is the House Price Exuberance Indicator. GTA is the Greater Toronto Area.\n\nSources: Canadian Real Estate Association, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, Realosophy Inc. and authors’ calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206": { "label": "Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206", "description": "Housing demand in Canada: A novel approach to classifying mortgaged homebuyers" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C1A": { "label": "Matched data show growth dynamics similar to the usual resale statistics", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C1A", "description": "Aggregate home sales volume\n\nYear-over-year growth rates\nLast observation: 2021Q2\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks, Canadian Real Estate Association and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C1B": { "label": "Matched data show growth dynamics similar to the usual resale statistics", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C1B", "description": "Average home sales price\n\nYear-over-year growth rates\nLast observation: 2021Q2\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks, Canadian Real Estate Association and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C2": { "label": "First-time homebuyers generally account for about half of home purchases in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C2", "description": "Decomposition of home purchases, by type of homebuyer, average over 2014‒2021H1\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C3": { "label": "Home purchases by first-time homebuyers, repeat homebuyers and investors have historically moved in tandem", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C3", "description": "Year-over-year growth in the number of new mortgages, by type of homebuyer\n\nLast observation: 2021Q2\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C4": { "label": "The share of home purchases by first-time homebuyers has declined since 2015", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C4", "description": "Share of total home purchases, by type of homebuyer\n\nLast observation: 2021Q2\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C5": { "label": "Investor activity has risen over time across major cities in Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C5", "description": "Share of mortgaged home purchases by investors, by major city\n\nLast observation: 2021Q2\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C6A": { "label": "Housing investors tend to be older, earn more income and be more indebted", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C6A", "description": "Distribution of homebuyers based on different metrics, averages over 2014–2021H1\n\nDistribution of homebuyers by age\nShare of home purchases\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C6B": { "label": "Housing investors tend to be older, earn more income and be more indebted", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C6B", "description": "Distribution of homebuyers based on different metrics, averages over 2014–2021H1\n\nDistribution of homebuyers by qualifying income\nShare of home purchases\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C6C": { "label": "Housing investors tend to be older, earn more income and be more indebted", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C6C", "description": "Distribution of homebuyers based on different metrics, averages over 2014–2021H1\n\nDistribution of homebuyers by loan-to-income ratio (latest mortgage only)\nShare of home purchases\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C6D": { "label": "Housing investors tend to be older, earn more income and be more indebted", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C6D", "description": "Distribution of homebuyers based on different metrics, averages over 2014–2021H1\n\nDistribution of homebuyers by loan-to-income ratio (all mortgages)\nShare of home purchases\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MIKA20211206_C6E": { "label": "Housing investors tend to be older, earn more income and be more indebted", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MIKA20211206_C6E", "description": "Distribution of homebuyers based on different metrics, averages over 2014–2021H1\n\nDistribution of homebuyers by total debt service ratio\nShare of home purchases\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MORE20220509": { "label": "A geographical analysis of the housing price boom during the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MORE20220509", "description": "A geographical analysis of the housing price boom during the pandemic" }, "SAN_MORE20220509_C1": { "label": "House prices have increased more in suburbs than downtown", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MORE20220509_C1", "description": "Average increase in house prices between 2019 and 2021, by distance from the downtown area of Canada’s major census metropolitan areas (CMAs)\n\nTeranet–National Bank and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MORE20220509_C2": { "label": "The closing of the price gap for houses in the suburbs and downtown gained momentum during the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MORE20220509_C2", "description": "Teranet–National Bank and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MORE20220509_C3": { "label": "The premium associated with living close to downtown fell considerably during the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MORE20220509_C3", "description": "Estimated house-price discount relative to the city centre of major census metropolitan areas (kilometre 0), by distance from city centre\n\nTeranet–National Bank and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MURC20221110": { "label": "Variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments: examining trigger rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MURC20221110", "description": "We estimate the share of variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments that reached the so-called trigger rate—the interest rate at which mortgage payments no longer cover the principal. Amid rising interest rates, this share was close to 50% at the end of October 2022 and could potentially reach 65% in 2023." }, "SAN_MURC20221110_C1": { "label": "As interest rates rise, the interest portion of a fixed payment for a variable-rate mortgage grows until the trigger rate is reached", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MURC20221110_C1", "description": "Illustrative example of the evolution of interest and principal portions of a variable-rate mortgage with fixed payments\n\nThis example shows a mortgage for $500,000 originated in January 2021 with an initial interest rate of 1.5% and an amortization period of 30 years. The resulting fixed monthly payment is $1,724, assuming semi-annual compounding. The variable interest rate on this mortgage changes one-to-one with the prime rate.\n\nBank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_MURC20221110_C2": { "label": "About half of all variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments reached their trigger rate by October 2022", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_MURC20221110_C2", "description": "Cumulative share of variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgages that reach their trigger rate at various interest rates, by year of origination or renewal\n\nCalculations include variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgages that originated or were renewed at federally regulated financial institutions. The sample includes only mortgages that have not yet reached the end of their contractual loan term. To determine whether a mortgage has reached its trigger rate at current interest rates, we update the initial interest rate to October 2022 by applying changes in the prime lending rate.\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817": { "label": "Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market Deteriorated?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C1": { "label": "Liquidity in the corporate bond market has improved", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n4-week moving average, weekly data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C2": { "label": "The number of trades and trade size have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C3": { "label": "Zero-trade days and turnover have been stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities, Thomson Reuters and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C4A": { "label": "Liquidity has improved for safer bonds and remained stable for riskier bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C4A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n4-week moving average, weekly data\na. The price impact proxy\n\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C4B": { "label": "Liquidity has improved for safer bonds and remained stable for riskier bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C4B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n4-week moving average, weekly data\nb. The bid-ask spread proxy\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C5A": { "label": "Trading activity is stable for both safer and riskier bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C5A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\na. Number of trades\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C5B": { "label": "Trading activity is stable for both safer and riskier bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C5B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nb. Trade size\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C5C": { "label": "Trading activity is stable for both safer and riskier bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C5C", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nc. Turnover ratio\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C5D": { "label": "Trading activity is stable for both safer and riskier bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C5D", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nd. Zero-trade days\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C6A": { "label": "Bank bonds exhibit higher liquidity than other corporate bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C6A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n4-week moving average, weekly data\na. The price impact proxy\n\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C6B": { "label": "Bank bonds exhibit higher liquidity than other corporate bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C6B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\n4-week moving average, weekly data\nb. The bid-ask spread proxy\n\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C7A": { "label": "Trading activity has increased for bonds issued by banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C7A", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\na. Number of trades\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C7B": { "label": "Trading activity has increased for bonds issued by banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C7B", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nb. Trade size\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C7C": { "label": "Trading activity has increased for bonds issued by banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C7C", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nc. Turnover ratio\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_NOLI20180817_C7D": { "label": "Trading activity has increased for bonds issued by banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_NOLI20180817_C7D", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMonthly data\nd. Zero-trade days\n\nSources: Canadian Depository for Securities and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_PAIX20241007": { "label": "Mortgage stress tests and household financial resilience under monetary policy tightening", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_PAIX20241007", "description": "Mortgage stress tests and household financial resilience under monetary policy tightening" }, "SAN_PAIX20241007_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Policy rate and minimum qualifying rate floor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_PAIX20241007_C1", "description": "Monthly data" }, "SAN_RIOS20240819": { "label": "An evaluation of the portfolio-balance effects of the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program on the Canadian Yield Curve", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_RIOS20240819", "description": "An evaluation of the portfolio-balance effects of the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program on the Canadian Yield Curve" }, "SAN_RIOS20240819_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program lowered the maturity of the Government of Canada’s debt", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_RIOS20240819_C1", "description": "Note: GoC is the Government of Canada. BoC is the Bank of Canada.\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and author calculations" }, "SAN_RIOS20240819_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program pushed down 10-year yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_RIOS20240819_C2", "description": "Note: QE means quantitative easing.\n\nSources: Bank of Canada and author calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20200903": { "label": "Announcing the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility: a COVID-19 event study", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20200903", "description": "Announcing the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility: a COVID-19 event study" }, "SAN_ROHA_20200903_C1": { "label": "Secondary market BA yields as a spread to OIS widened during the COVID-19 crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20200903_C1", "description": "Spread to OIS (bps)\n\nLast observation: May 27, 2020\n\nNote: BA means bankers' acceptances and overnight index swaps means overnight index swaps.\n\nSources: Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20200903_C2": { "label": "Range of traded yields for bankers' acceptances rose to nearly 15 basis points at the height of market stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20200903_C2", "description": "Interquartile range (bps)\n\nLast observation: May 27, 2020\n\nSources: Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20200903_C3": { "label": "The first two operations saw dealers sell the maximum amount to the Bank", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20200903_C3", "description": "Can$ billions\n\nLast observation: March 25, 2020\n\nNote: BA means bankers' acceptances.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20200903_C4": { "label": "The first two operations saw dealers sell BAs to the Bank at notably higher yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20200903_C4", "description": "Last observations: May 22, 2020, for BA rate and May 25, 2020, for rest\n\nNote: The 3-month banker's acceptance rate is from the Friday preceding the operation on the following Monday\n\nSources: Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20200903_C5": { "label": "The within-the-day approach suggests that BAPF reduced BA yields by about 15 basis points on the day of the announcement", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20200903_C5", "description": "Spread to OIS (bps)\n\nLast observation: March 13, 2020\n\nNote: BAPF means bankers' acceptances purchase facility and BA means bankers' acceptances. The announcement on March 13 was a joint announcement of BAPF and an interest rate cut of 50 basis points. We control for the effect of the rate cut announcement using the bankers' acceptances yields over overnight index swaps spread instead of the yield level.\n\nSources: Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 Data and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20200903_C6": { "label": "Between the annoucement of the facility and the first operation, bankers' acceptances purchase facility reduced bankers' acceptances yields between 20 and 70 basis points depending on the instrument of comparison", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20200903_C6", "description": "Last observation: May 20, 2020\n\nSources: Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20201015": { "label": "Concentration in the market of authorized participants of U.S. fixed-income exchange-traded funds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20201015", "description": "Concentration in the market of authorized participants of U.S. fixed-income exchange-traded funds" }, "SAN_ROHA_20201015_C1A": { "label": "Market of authorized participants is much more concentrated in fixed-income (FI) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) than in equity ETFs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20201015_C1A", "description": "Last Observation: Fiscal year-end 2019\n\nSource: Form N-CEN Filings Data – Securities and Exchange Commission" }, "SAN_ROHA_20201015_C1B": { "label": "Market of authorized participants is much more concentrated in fixed-income (FI) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) than in equity ETFs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20201015_C1B", "description": "Last Observation: Fiscal year-end 2019\n\nSource: Form N-CEN Filings Data – Securities and Exchange Commission" }, "SAN_ROHA_20201015_C2": { "label": "Top three authorized participants are the most active in 90 percent of fixed-income exchange-traded funds (FI-ETFs)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20201015_C2", "description": "Last Observation: Fiscal year-end 2019\n\nSource: Form N-CEN Filings Data – Securities and Exchange Commission" }, "SAN_ROHA_20201015_C3": { "label": "Most authorized participants in the fixed-income exchange-traded fund (FI-ETF) market are inactive", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20201015_C3", "description": "Last Observation: Fiscal year-end 2019\n\nSource: Form N-CEN Filings Data – Securities and Exchange Commission" }, "SAN_ROHA_20201015_C4": { "label": "Fixed-income exchange-traded funds traded at large discounts in March 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20201015_C4", "description": "Average of ETFs in our sample\n\nLast observation: September 1, 202\n\nNote: Annoucement corresponds to the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) Federal Reserve intents intentions to purchase investment-grade bonds and FI-ETFs. Implementation represents the first operation date.\n\nSources: Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20201015_C5": { "label": "In March, on-exchange trading volume for fixed-income ETFs spiked", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20201015_C5", "description": "Average of FI-ETFs in our sample\n\nLast observation: September 1, 2020\n\nSources: Bloomberg and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128": { "label": "Non-bank financial intermediation in Canada: a pulse check", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128", "description": "Non-bank financial intermediation in Canada: a pulse check" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C1": { "label": "The relative share of assets held by non-bank financial intermediaries has remained stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C1", "description": "Share of total assets, annual data\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Securities Commission, Morningstar, IHS Markit, DBRS, Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C10": { "label": "The share of assets held by non-bank investment dealers has fallen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C10", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nLast observation: June 2020\n\nSources: Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C11": { "label": "Money market funds and exchange-traded funds grew faster than fixed-income mutual funds did during the crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C11", "description": "Daily cumulative change in fund size\n\nLast observation: June 30, 2020\n\nNote: AUM stands for assets under management.\n\nSources: Morningstar Direct and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C2": { "label": "Growth in non-bank financial intermediation has been driven by investment dealers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C2", "description": "Annual data\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Securities Commission, Morningstar, IHS Markit, DBRS, Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C3A": { "label": "Investment funds continue to be the largest non-bank financial intermediation subsector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C3A", "description": "All subsectors\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Securities Commission, Morningstar, IHS Markit, DBRS, Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C3B": { "label": "Investment funds continue to be the largest non-bank financial intermediation subsector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C3B", "description": "Investment funds subsector\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Ontario Securities Commission, Morningstar, IHS Markit, DBRS, Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C4": { "label": "Since 2008, financing companies' assets have grown by 73%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C4", "description": "Annual data\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nNote: Other assets include currency and deposits, debt securities, mortgages, other financial assets and non-financial assets.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C5": { "label": "Since 2008, leverage has declined and liquidity remains stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C5", "description": "Annual data\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nNote: Leverage measured as assets divided by equity. Liquidity is measured as currency and deposits and short-term paper divided by total assets.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C6": { "label": "Mortgage investment corporations' market share of outstanding mortgages remains small", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C6", "description": "Annual data\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nNote: This is based on the mortgages held on the entities' balance sheets, which includes both residential and commercial mortgages. Quasi-banks include credit unions, caisses populaires and trust and loan companies.\n\nSource: Statistics Canada" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C7": { "label": "Total financial assets of mortgage investment corporations have grown rapidly since the global financial crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C7", "description": "Annual data\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nSources: Statistics Canada" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C8": { "label": "MIC leverage has increased while liquidity has steadily declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C8", "description": "Annual data\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nNote: Leverage is measured as assets minus corporate claims divided by equity. Liquidity is measured as liquid assets divided by financial liabilities\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C9A": { "label": "DSIBs' exposure to private lenders is small, but some variation exists across banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C9A", "description": "Aggregate DSIB exposure\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nNote: Excludes reverse repurchase agreements and securities borrowed. DSIB stands for domestic systemically important bank.\n\nSources: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_C9B": { "label": "DSIBs' exposure to private lenders is small, but some variation exists across banks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_C9B", "description": "Distribution of DSIB exposure\n\nLast observation: 2019\n\nNote: Excludes reverse repurchase agreements and securities borrowed. DSIB stands for domestic systemically important bank.\n\nSources: Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_F1A": { "label": "Despite strong post‑crisis growth in assets, non-bank financial intermediation's share of outstanding private debt has declined or remained steady", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_F1A", "description": "Annual data\n\nTotal private credit\nLast observation: 2019\n\nSources: Morningstar, Ontario Securities Commission, DBRS, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_ROHA_20210128_F1B": { "label": "Despite strong post‑crisis growth in assets, non-bank financial intermediation's share of outstanding private debt has declined or remained steady", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_ROHA_20210128_F1B", "description": "Annual data\n\nMarket-based business credit\nLast observation: 2019\n\nSources: Morningstar, Ontario Securities Commission, DBRS, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20230626": { "label": "Do hedge funds support liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20230626", "description": "Do hedge funds support liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?" }, "SAN_SAND20230626_C1": { "label": "Hedge funds have the second largest share of transaction volume", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20230626_C1", "description": "Share of average daily dealer-client trading volume\n\nWealth managers include firms that offer mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and other pooled investment products. Other clients include non-financial corporations, foreign central banks and credit unions, among other clients of dealers.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20230626_C2": { "label": "Hedge funds’ transactions are in the opposite direction to those of other clients", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20230626_C2", "description": "Median ratio of net Government of Canada bond transaction volume of asset managers to that of other market participants\n\nWealth managers include firms that offer mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and other pooled investment products. Other clients include non-financial corporations, foreign central banks and credit unions, among other clients of dealers.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20230626_C3": { "label": "Hedge funds earn excess returns when they transact in the opposite direction", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20230626_C3", "description": "Cumulative excess returns\n\nThe dark blue bar represents excess returns that are not statistically different from 0 at the 10% significance level. Light blue bars represent excess returns that are statistically different from 0 at the 10% significance level.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System, FTSE Russell and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20230626_C4": { "label": "Hedge funds have the largest share of repo transaction volume", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20230626_C4", "description": "Share of average daily dealer-to-client repo transaction volume where Government of Canada bonds are collateral\n\nWealth managers include firms that offer mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and other pooled investment products. Other clients include non-financial corporations, foreign central banks and credit unions, among other clients of dealers.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20230626_C5": { "label": "Hedge funds sold Government of Canada bonds, on net, during the peak of market turmoil", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20230626_C5", "description": "The Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program was announced on March 27, 2020, and was activated on April 1, 2020.\n\nMarket Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20240624": { "label": "Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20240624", "description": "Could all-to-all trading improve liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market?" }, "SAN_SAND20240624_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Benchmark bonds have higher average daily shares of offsetting client transactions than those of non-benchmark bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20240624_C1", "description": "Daily average, 25th and 75th percentile centred around averages\n\nSources: Market Trade Reporting System and, Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20240624_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The share of offsetting client transactions was stable during the COVID-19 crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20240624_C2", "description": "21-day moving average, daily data\n\nSources: Market Trade Reporting System and, and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20240624_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: The share of offsetting client transactions in Government of Canada bond futures was stable during the COVID-19 crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20240624_C3", "description": "21-day moving average, daily data\n\nSources: Montréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20241108": { "label": "How foreign central banks can affect liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20241108", "description": "How foreign central banks can affect liquidity in the Government of Canada bond market" }, "SAN_SAND20241108_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Foreign central banks hold a significant share of the float of Government of Canada bonds", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20241108_C1", "description": "Note: MTRS is Market Trade Reporting System. Custody data include holdings of foreign central banks that use the Bank of Canada as their custodian.\n\nSources: MTRS and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20241108_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Foreign central banks have longer estimated holding periods than other asset managers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20241108_C2", "description": "Note: Wealth managers includes firms that offer mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and other pooled investment products. Other includes non-financial corporations, credit unions and other clients of dealers.\n\nSources: Market Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20241108_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Foreign central banks’ gross repo position is smaller than some other asset managers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20241108_C3", "description": "Average daily amount from June 10, 2023–June 10, 2024\n\nNote: Wealth managers includes firms that offer mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and other pooled investment products. Other includes non-financial corporations, credit unions and other clients of dealers.\n\nSources: Market Trade Reporting System and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20250912": { "label": "An update on the Canadian money market mutual fund sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20250912", "description": "An update on the Canadian money market mutual fund sector" }, "SAN_SAND20250912_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Money market funds have experienced more growth than other asset managers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20250912_C1", "description": "Growth in assets since 2019\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20250912_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Growth of money market funds broadly correlates with interest rate levels", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20250912_C2", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20250912_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Money market funds hold a large share of Government of Canada treasury bills and non-government short-term paper", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20250912_C3", "description": "Share of market\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20250912_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Money market funds have increased their allocation to commercial paper", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20250912_C4", "description": "Share of assets\n\nSources: LSEG Lipper and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20250912_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: During the March 2020 financial market turmoil, Canadian money market funds experienced investor inflows", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20250912_C5", "description": "Note: MMF is money market fund, BA is bankers’ acceptances and OIS is overnight index swaps. The 1-month BA–OIS spread comes from R. Arora, S. Gungor, K. McRae and J. Witmer, “Announcing the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility: a COVID 19 event study,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2020 23 (October 2020).\n\nSources: LSEG Lipper and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SAND20250912_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Retail investors represent the largest share of Canadian money market fund investors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SAND20250912_C6", "description": "Share of MMF assets held by different investor types\n\nNote: MMF is money market fund. This dataset covers all MMFs registered in the province of Ontario, representing the majority of Canadian MMFs.\n\nSource: Ontario Securities Commission’s Investment Fund Survey" }, "SAN_SARA20211118": { "label": "Has wage setting changed in Canada? Evidence from the 2020 pre-pandemic Wage Setting Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118", "description": "Has wage setting changed in Canada? Evidence from the 2020 pre-pandemic Wage Setting Survey" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C1": { "label": "Chart 1", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C1", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C10": { "label": "Chart 10", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C10", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C11A": { "label": "Timing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C11A", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C11B": { "label": "Frequency", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C11B", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C11C": { "label": "Adjustments outside normal schedule?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C11C", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C12": { "label": "Chart 12", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C12", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C13": { "label": "Chart 13", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C13", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C2": { "label": "Chart 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C2", "description": "Note: In 2007-08, fairness consideration and other wages changes were not provided." }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C3": { "label": "Chart 3", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C3", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C4A": { "label": "Chart 4 Panel A", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C4A", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C4B": { "label": "Chart 4 Panel B", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C4B", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C5A": { "label": "Chart 5 Panel A", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C5A", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C5B": { "label": "Chart 5 Panel B", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C5B", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C6": { "label": "Chart 6", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C6", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C7": { "label": "Chart 7", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C7", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C8": { "label": "Chart 8", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C8", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_C9": { "label": "Chart 9", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_C9", "description": "" }, "SAN_SARA20211118_CB_1": { "label": "Chart B-1", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SARA20211118_CB_1", "description": "" }, "SAN_SEKK20181018": { "label": "Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SEKK20181018", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_SEKK20181018_C1": { "label": "Daily variation in Canadian bond yields explained by macro news", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SEKK20181018_C1", "description": "y-axis: R2\nx-axis: Maturities (in years)\nSources: Bloomberg and Bank of Canada Calculations\n\nLast observation: May 2018" }, "SAN_SEKK20181018_C2": { "label": "Monthly variation in Canadian bond yields explained by macro news", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SEKK20181018_C2", "description": "y-axis: R2\nx-axis: Maturities (in years)\nSources: Bloomberg and Bank of Canada Calculations\n\nLast observation: May 2018" }, "SAN_SEKK20181018_C3": { "label": "Quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields explained by macro news", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SEKK20181018_C3", "description": "y-axis: R2\nx-axis: Maturities (in years)\nSources: Bloomberg and Bank of Canada Calculations\n\nLast observation: May 2018" }, "SAN_SEKK20181018_C4": { "label": "Quarterly variation in the 10-year Canadian BEIR and real bond yields explained by macro news", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SEKK20181018_C4", "description": "Note: BEIR is the break-even inflation rate, measured as the difference between a long run yield and an inflation-linked yield of the same maturity.\nSources: Bloomberg and Bank of Canada Calculations\n\nLast observation: May 2018" }, "SAN_SUAD20250620": { "label": "How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SUAD20250620", "description": "How will mortgage payments change at renewal? An updated analysis" }, "SAN_SUAD20250620_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Financial market participants expect interest rates to remain largely stable to 2027", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SUAD20250620_C1", "description": "Historical and simulated interest rates\n\nNote: Interest rates in the simulation period are based on market expectations as at April 28, 2025.\n\nSources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SUAD20250620_C2A": { "label": "Chart 2: About one-third of all mortgage holders are likely to see payment increases by the end of 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SUAD20250620_C2A", "description": "a. Distribution of outstanding mortgages in Canada based on what will happen to their payments between December 2024 and...\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SUAD20250620_C2B1": { "label": "Chart 2-B: Distribution of outstanding mortgages that will see an increase or decrease by the end of 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SUAD20250620_C2B1", "description": "Mortgages with payment increases\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SUAD20250620_C2B2": { "label": "Chart 2-B: Distribution of outstanding mortgages that will see an increase or decrease by the end of 2026", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SUAD20250620_C2B2", "description": "Mortgages with payment decreases\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SUAD20250620_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Change in monthly payments at renewal depends on the type of mortgage", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SUAD20250620_C3", "description": "Distributions of changes in payments from December 2024 levels\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_SUAD20250620_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Borrowers with variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgages have repaid more principal than expected", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_SUAD20250620_C4", "description": "Share of outstanding balance repaid on variable-rate, fixed-payment mortgages originated or renewed between January 2020 and March 2022\n\nNote: Simulated share is based on borrowers making only the minimum required payments since they originated or previously renewed their mortgages.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_TENY20231123": { "label": "The impact of higher interest rates on mortgage payments", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TENY20231123", "description": "The impact of higher interest rates on mortgage payments" }, "SAN_TENY20231123_C1": { "label": "Participants in financial markets expect interest rates to remain higher than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TENY20231123_C1", "description": "Historical and simulated interest rates\n\nInterest rates in the simulation period are based on financial market expectations as at December 12, 2023.\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_TENY20231123_C2": { "label": "Most mortgages have not yet seen an increase in payments", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TENY20231123_C2", "description": "Cumulative share of mortgages outstanding in February 2022 that have been subject to a payment increase, by count\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_TENY20231123_C3A": { "label": "Median payments will continue to increase as more mortgages come up for renewal Panel a. Scenario: Rates evolve according to financial market expectations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TENY20231123_C3A", "description": "Median monthly mortgage payment for outstanding mortgages\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_TENY20231123_C3B": { "label": "Median payments will continue to increase as more mortgages come up for renewal Panel b. Scenario: Rates remain at their October 2023 level", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TENY20231123_C3B", "description": "Median monthly mortgage payment for outstanding mortgages\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates, and projections" }, "SAN_TENY20231123_C4": { "label": "Income growth would reduce the increase in the mortgage debt service ratio at renewal compared to origination, but would not fully offset payment increases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TENY20231123_C4", "description": "Median increase in mortgage debt service ratio at renewal compared with origination\n\nRegulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SAN_THIB20210727": { "label": "Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THIB20210727", "description": "Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks" }, "SAN_THIB20210727_C1": { "label": "The frequency of natural disaster events has increased over time", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THIB20210727_C1", "description": "Number of natural disasters registered across Canada, 10-year moving average\n\nLast observation: 2016\n\nNote: Some of the increase in the number of natural disasters over time likely reflects more systematic reporting and better measurement by authorities.\n\nSources: Canadian Disaster Database and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_THIB20210727_C3A": { "label": "The unsupervised machine learning algorithm identifies three clusters of data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THIB20210727_C3A", "description": "The squared distance of each point to the center of the cluster is small\n\nSources: The Canadian Disaster Database, TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_THIB20210727_C3B": { "label": "The unsupervised machine learning algorithm identifies three clusters of data", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THIB20210727_C3B", "description": "The average distance of points in a cluster to the nearest cluster is large\n\nSources: The Canadian Disaster Database, TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_THIB20210727_C4": { "label": "Households vulnerable to both financial stress and natural disasters hold a large portion of household debt, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THIB20210727_C4", "description": "Household debt with varied exposures to natural disaster and financial vulnerabilities as a share of national and provincial household debt, respectively\n\nLast observation: 2020Q3\n\nSources: Canadian Disaster Database, TransUnion, and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_THOR20250611": { "label": "Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2024 global monitoring report", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THOR20250611", "description": "Non-bank financial intermediation: Canada’s submission to the 2024 global monitoring report" }, "SAN_THOR20250611_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Total value of assets in the Canadian financial system grew 5.4% in 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THOR20250611_C1", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nNote: The non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector includes insurance corporations, pension funds, financial auxiliaries and other financial intermediaries.\n\nSources: Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, Ontario Securities Commission, LSEG Data & Analytics, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_THOR20250611_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Assets held by other financial intermediaries grew in 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THOR20250611_C2", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nNote: Other financial intermediaries are all entities in the non-bank financial intermediation sector excluding pension funds, insurance corporations and financial auxiliaries. Other investment funds consist primarily of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds and excludes hedge funds, money market funds, real estate investment trusts and real estate funds. Others includes entities not captured by any of the other categories.\n\nSources: Canadian Derivatives Clearing Corporation, Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, Ontario Securities Commission, LSEG Data & Analytics, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_THOR20250611_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Asset values rose for entities in the narrow measure of non-bank financial intermediaries in 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THOR20250611_C3", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nSources: Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, Ontario Securities Commission, LSEG Lipper, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_THOR20250611_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Growth of investment funds was broad-based in 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THOR20250611_C4", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nNote: Data for credit hedge funds and credit pooled funds are available only from 2013 onwards.\n\nSources: Ontario Securities Commission, LSEG Lipper, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_THOR20250611_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Finance companies recorded asset growth of 4.3% in 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_THOR20250611_C5", "description": "Total financial assets, annual data\n\nNote: The value of assets held by mortgage finance companies has been interpolated for 2014 due to confidentiality reasons.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_TUPI20230830": { "label": "Tattle-tails: Gauging downside risks using option prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TUPI20230830", "description": "Tattle-tails: Gauging downside risks using option prices" }, "SAN_TUPI20230830_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Government bond yields in Canada and around the world declined sharply", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TUPI20230830_C1", "description": "Change in nominal yields of 2-year bonds since March 6, 2023\n\nSource: Bloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_TUPI20230830_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The stock prices of global banks declined through the stress period", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TUPI20230830_C2", "description": "Bank equities, index: March 6, 2023 = 100\n\nNote: “Canada—domestic systemically important banks” is the unweighted average of the equity prices of the following six banks: Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, National Bank of Canada, Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto-Dominion Bank. “Canada—small and medium-sized deposit-taking institutions” is the unweighted average of the equity prices of the following three banks: EQB Inc., Canadian Western Bank and Laurentian Bank of Canada. “United States—global systemically important banks” is the unweighted average of the equity prices of the following eight banks: Bank of America Corporation, Citigroup Inc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, State Street Corporation, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and Wells Fargo & Company\n\nBloomberg Finance L.P." }, "SAN_TUPI20230830_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: The financial system stress increased uncertainty and downside risks to Canadian interest rates", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TUPI20230830_C3", "description": "XSB option-implied probability; expiry: September 15, 2023\n\nFor ease of interpretation, we present the x-axis of all equity exchange-traded funds as a share price but convert the price of XSB to an interest rate.\n\nTMX Montréal Exchange, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_TUPI20230830_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Declines in Canadian bank stocks and downside risks were not consistent with risks of a domestic banking sector stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TUPI20230830_C4", "description": "ZEB option-implied probability; expiry: September 15, 2023\n\nTMX Montréal Exchange, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_TUPI20230830_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: The stress created minimal downside risks for broad Canadian economic growth", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_TUPI20230830_C5", "description": "XIU option-implied probability; expiry: September 15, 2023\n\nTMX Montréal Exchange, Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508": { "label": "How big is cash-futures basis trading in Canada’s government bond market?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508", "description": "How big is cash-futures basis trading in Canada’s government bond market?" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C1": { "label": "Trading volumes of 2-year and 5-year Government of Canada bond futures have grown in relation to Government of Canada bond trading volumes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C1", "description": "Monthly Government of Canada bond futures trading volumes as a share of Government of Canada bond trading volumes\n\nFutures trading volumes exclude transactions related to replacing expiring futures contracts with new futures contracts and inter-group strategies.\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.), Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C2A": { "label": "a. Monthly trading volumes in the basis trade", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C2A", "description": "Futures trading volumes exclude transactions related to replacing expiring contract with new contracts and inter-group strategies.\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C2B": { "label": "b. Monthly trading volumes in the basis trade as a share of total Government of Canada bond futures trading volumes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C2B", "description": "Futures trading volumes exclude transactions related to replacing expiring contract with new contracts and inter-group strategies.\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C3A": { "label": "a. Monthly trading volumes in the basis trade as a share of Government of Canada bond trading volumes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C3A", "description": "Montréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.), Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C3B": { "label": "b. Monthly trading volumes in the basis trade as a share of Government of Canada bond trading volumes by tenor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C3B", "description": "Montréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.), Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C4A": { "label": "a. Monthly trading volumes in the basis trade as a share of repo market trading volumes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C4A", "description": "Repo transactions include only Government of Canada bond collateral.\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.), Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C4B": { "label": "b. Monthly trading volumes in the basis trade as a share of repo market trading volumes by tenor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C4B", "description": "Repo transactions include only Government of Canada bond collateral.\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.), Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C5A": { "label": "a. Average split of monthly trading volumes in the basis trade between clients and approved participants", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C5A", "description": "Averages calculated over January 2019 to May 2023\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C5B": { "label": "b. Trading volumes in the basis trade as a share of total Government of Canada bond futures trading volumes for clients and approved participants", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C5B", "description": "Averages calculated over January 2019 to May 2023\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.) and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_UTHE20240508_C6": { "label": "Hedge funds’ Government of Canada bond trading volumes correlate significantly with trading volumes in the basis trade", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_UTHE20240508_C6", "description": "Estimated average percent change in daily client trading volumes in the basis trade for a 1% change in daily Government of Canada bond trading volume by investor group\n\nSensitivities are calculated by regressing client trading volumes in the basis on Government of Canada bond trading volume for each investor group, separately. The sample period covers January 2020 to May 2023. Trading volumes are in logs and measured at a daily frequency. Bars represent average sensitivities, and the ranges around them represent their 95% confidence intervals.\n\nMontréal Exchange (TSX © Copyright 2024 TSX Inc. All rights reserved.), Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_VALA20250605": { "label": "The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_VALA20250605", "description": "The impact of trading flows on Government of Canada bond prices" }, "SAN_VALA20250605_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Non-residents and Canadian pension funds hold more than half the share of Government of Canada bonds in the market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_VALA20250605_C1", "description": "Share and market value of Government of Canada bonds\n\nNote: The left scale applies to all categories except Supply. P&C insurance companies are those that offer property and casualty insurance. Other governments represents provincial, territorial, municipal and Indigenous governments. Supply represents the total available supply of Government of Canada bonds held by the private sector and excludes the Bank of Canada’s holdings." }, "SAN_VALA20250605_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Estimated impact of trading flows on the Government of Canada bond market", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_VALA20250605_C2", "description": "Average change in market value (%) and yield (basis points, 10-year bond) for Government of Canada (GoC) bonds over one quarter\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Intercontinental Exchange Bank of America Canada Government Index and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_VALA20250605_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Quarterly fluctuations in Government of Canada bond prices are mainly driven by investor-specific factors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_VALA20250605_C3", "description": "Average percentage contribution of each investor group to quarterly Government of Canada bond market returns" }, "SAN_WALC20181002": { "label": "Price Caps in Canadian Bond Borrowing Markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALC20181002", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "SAN_WALC20181002_C1": { "label": "History of maximum bond borrowing prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALC20181002_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nGovernment of Canada bond market, April 2006 to June 2018\n\nNotes:\n* Maximum borrowing price in the market in one month;\n† Average Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) in one month\n\nSources: Bank of Canada, Canadian Depository for Securities and Markit" }, "SAN_WALC20181002_C2": { "label": "Estimated probability of hitting the price cap", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALC20181002_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nProbability of repo borrowing prices being close to the price cap against the overnight interest rate, per cent annualized interest\n\nSources: Bank of Canada, Canadian Depository for Securities, Markit and CanDeal" }, "SAN_WALC20181002_C3": { "label": "Price differences after removing the price cap", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALC20181002_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nPercentage difference between estimated and capped prices for repo trades hitting the price cap\n\nSources: Bank of Canada, Canadian Depository for Securities, Markit and CanDeal" }, "SAN_WALC20181002_C4": { "label": "Borrowing prices before and after the fail charge was implemented in the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALC20181002_C4", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nBond borrowing prices for recently issued 10-year US Treasury bonds, January–September 2009.\n\nNotes: \n* Maximum borrowing price in the market\n\nSources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Markit and ICAP" }, "SAN_WALT20220530": { "label": "Fixed-income dealing and central bank interventions", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALT20220530", "description": "Fixed-income dealing and central bank interventions" }, "SAN_WALT20220530_C1": { "label": "Investors were selling bankers’ acceptances to dealers in March 2020", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALT20220530_C1", "description": "Daily data, five-day moving average\n\nSources: Market Trade Reporting System 2.0 and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_WALT20220530_C2": { "label": "The Bank of Canada’s balance sheet grew rapidly during the COVID-19 crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALT20220530_C2", "description": "Source: Bank of Canada" }, "SAN_WALT20220530_C3A": { "label": "Impact of optimal central bank interventions on quantities traded by dealers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALT20220530_C3A", "description": "Cost of Dealer Inventories\n\nThis chart illustrates the quantities bought and sold by dealers, before and after optimal central bank intervention. The panel on the left shows the impact of the costs of inventory. The panel of the right shows the impact of the number of dealers in the market.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_WALT20220530_C3B": { "label": "Impact of optimal central bank interventions on quantities traded by dealers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALT20220530_C3B", "description": "Number of Dealers\n\nThis chart illustrates the quantities bought and sold by dealers, before and after optimal central bank intervention. The panel on the left shows the impact of the costs of inventory. The panel of the right shows the impact of the number of dealers in the market.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_WALT20220530_C4A": { "label": "Impact of optimal central bank intervention on prices traded at by dealer", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALT20220530_C4A", "description": "Cost of Dealer Inventories\n\nThis chart illustrates the bid and ask prices for the asset, before and after optimal central bank intervention. The panel on the left shows the impact of the costs of inventory. The panel on the right shows the impact of the number of dealers in the market." }, "SAN_WALT20220530_C4B": { "label": "Impact of optimal central bank intervention on prices traded at by dealers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_WALT20220530_C4B", "description": "Number of Dealers\n\nThis chart illustrates the bid and ask prices for the asset, before and after optimal central bank intervention. The panel on the left shows the impact of the costs of inventory. The panel on the right shows the impact of the number of dealers in the market." }, "SAN_XIAO20240605": { "label": "The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_XIAO20240605", "description": "The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt as a predictor of financial stress" }, "SAN_XIAO20240605_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: The reliance of Canadians on credit card debt has risen further over the past year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_XIAO20240605_C1", "description": "Credit card use by households, seasonally adjusted\n\nNote: Canadians are defined as carrying a balance on their credit cards when they do not fully pay the balance on at least one of their cards for two or more consecutive months. To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_XIAO20240605_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Carrying an unpaid credit card balance increases the likelihood of experiencing financial stress in the future", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_XIAO20240605_C2", "description": "Probability of falling behind on any credit product within the next six months, by mortgage holding status and credit card balance carrying status\n\nNote: To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks, and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_XIAO20240605_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Canadians carrying a balance on their credit cards for more than six consecutive months may face more future financial stress", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_XIAO20240605_C3", "description": "Probability of falling behind on payments on any credit product within the next six months, by mortgage holding status and credit card balance duration\n\nNote: To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_XIAO20240605_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: The size of unpaid balances on credit cards affects the likelihood of Canadians experiencing financial stress in the future", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_XIAO20240605_C4", "description": "Probability of falling behind on payments on any credit product within the next six months, by mortgage holding status and credit card balance intensity\n\nNote: To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_XIAO20240605_CA1A": { "label": "Chart A-1A: Mortgagors tend to carry an outstanding balance more often than non-mortgagors", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_XIAO20240605_CA1A", "description": "Share of borrowers carrying an outstanding balance on their credit cards, seasonally adjusted\n\nNote: Canadians are categorized as carrying an outstanding balance on their credit cards when they do not fully pay their credit card balance—on at least one of their credit cards—for two or more consecutive months. To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_XIAO20240605_CA1B": { "label": "Chart A-1B: Non-mortgagors tend to carry a bigger share than mortgagors of their borrowing limit", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_XIAO20240605_CA1B", "description": "Share of Canadians whose outstanding balance represents 80% or more of their borrowing limit, seasonally adjusted\n\nNote: Canadians are categorized as carrying an outstanding balance on their credit cards when they do not fully pay their credit card balance—on at least one of their credit cards—for at least two consecutive months. To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_XIAO20240605_CA2": { "label": "Chart A-2: Among mortgagors with unpaid credit card balances, those with a higher LTV and lower income are more likely to experience financial stress in the future", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_XIAO20240605_CA2", "description": "Probability of falling behind on payments on any credit products within the next six months, by mortgage qualityfing income and mortgage origination LTV\n\nNote: LTV is loan-to-value ratio. To protect the privacy of Canadians, TransUnion did not provide any personal information to the Bank. The TransUnion dataset was anonymized, meaning it does not include information that identifies individual Canadians, such as names, social insurance numbers or addresses.\n\nSources: TransUnion, regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_YAND20191215": { "label": "The Cyber Incident Landscape", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YAND20191215", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry." }, "SAN_YAND20191215_C1": { "label": "Finance and insurance sector cyber incidents", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YAND20191215_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nNumber of incidents\n\nLoss per incident 000s constant USD (2018=100)\n\nSources: Advisen cyber loss data (all years), July 2019; US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (accessed through Federal Reserve Economic Data); Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_YAND20191215_C2": { "label": "Share of total incidents by NAICS sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YAND20191215_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: Advisen cyber loss data, July 2019 (all years); US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (accessed through Federal Reserve Economic Data); Bank of Canada calculations; North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)" }, "SAN_YAND20191215_C3": { "label": "Median losses by cyber incident type", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YAND20191215_C3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nMedian loss per incident, thousands constant USD (2018=100)\n\nSources: Advisen cyber loss data, July 2019 (all years); US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (accessed through Federal Reserve Economic Data); Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_YAND20191215_C4": { "label": "Malicious cyber incidents by NAICS sector and threat source", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YAND20191215_C4", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nLoss per incident 000s constant USD (2018=100)\n\nSources: Advisen cyber loss data, July 2019 (all years); US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (accessed through Federal Reserve Economic Data); Bank of Canada calculations; North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)" }, "SAN_YAND20191215_C5": { "label": "Share of malicious cyber incidents from internal actors by NAICS sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YAND20191215_C5", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\n A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources: Advisen cyber loss data, July 2019 (all years); Bank of Canada calculations; North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)" }, "SAN_YANG20241209": { "label": "Using new loan data to better understand mortgage holders", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YANG20241209", "description": "Using new loan data to better understand mortgage holders" }, "SAN_YANG20241209_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Share of mortgages by amortization period", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YANG20241209_C1", "description": "Note: The effective amortization period is the amount of time it takes to repay the remaining balance on the loan at the current pace of repayment. Negative amortization occurs when a borrower’s total regular mortgage payment does not sufficiently cover the interest portion of the payment.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_YANG20241209_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Share of mortgages by loan-to-value ratio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YANG20241209_C2", "description": "Note: A combined loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is used for loans with a combined mortgage and home equity line of credit plan.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_YANG20241209_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Share of mortgages by outstanding balances", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YANG20241209_C3", "description": "Note: Mortgages in the zero category have a value below Can$100,000. Mortgages with an outstanding balance of more than Can$1 million are not shown. These mortgages account for 3.7% of the originating loans and 2.5% of the stock of outstanding mortgages.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAN_YANG20241209_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Maturity date of outstanding mortgages", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAN_YANG20241209_C4", "description": "By type of interest rate and term\n\nNote: The maturity date of a loan indicates when the current term of a mortgage loan ends. Borrowers with an outstanding balance at the end of their term would renew their mortgage at this time.\n\nSources: Regulatory filings of Canadian banks and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SAP_BEER20260924": { "label": "BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2026?", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAP_BEER20260924", "description": "The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default." }, "SAP_BEER20260924_C1": { "label": "Total share of debt in default by creditor", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAP_BEER20260924_C1", "description": "LC is local currency, and FC is foreign currency. IADB is Inter-American Development Bank. See footnote 2 for more information on the Paris Club group of lenders. Other official creditors are bilateral and multilateral creditors not identified separately. Other private creditors are mainly suppliers.\n\nBoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database 2026" }, "SAP_BEER20260924_M1": { "label": "Global debt in default 1990–2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SAP_BEER20260924_M1", "description": "US$ millions" }, "sdp-2012-8": { "label": "Staff Discussion Paper 2012-8", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/sdp-2012-8", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nNote from the author(s):\nThe BOS underlying indicator is re-estimated every quarter following the release of the Business Outlook Survey (results are available on the Bank website). As such, the entire time series is revised after every release. The date field refers to the first day of the quarter where the BOS underlying indicator is estimated. For example, 01/04/2016 refers to the 2016Q2 estimate, which is available roughly one week after the end of the quarter (e.g. mid-July 2016).\nContact person:\nLise Pichette (lpichette@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "sdp-2014-3": { "label": "Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/sdp-2014-3", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources:\nHaver Analytics/Markit, Haver Analytics/Eurostat, Haver Analytics/European Commission, Haver Analytics/CEPR, Haver Analytics/European Central Bank, Haver Analytics/Cabinet Office of Japan, Haver Analytics/METI, Haver Analytics/JAMA\nNote from the author(s):\nThe estimates provided are the real-time forecasts for GDP growth as of the first day of each month. Based on a re-evaluation of the forecast errors in the spring of 2016, the MIDAS forecast for Japan is now based on the average forecast from the following indicators: (1) PMI (average of composite output, new orders, employment, and backlogs of work), (2) the Shoko-Chukin Survey (average of small/medium businesses finished goods inventory and production capacity), (3) the Cabinet Office consumption index, (4) retail sales, and (5) industrial production. \nContact person: \nMaxime Leboeuf (mleboeuf@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "sdp-2016-5": { "label": "Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/sdp-2016-5", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources:\nConsensus Economics, Haver Analytics/Bank of Japan, Haver Analytics/Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics/European Central Bank, Haver Analytics/OECD, Bloomberg\nNote from the author(s):\nThe model is re-estimated every time new data is available and the data provided is the resulting in-sample fit. As such, all data series provided are revised when new data is available.\nContact person:\nMaxime Leboeuf (mleboeuf@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515": { "label": "Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchases", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515", "description": "Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada’s Government Bond Purchases" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C1A": { "label": "a. Bank of Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C1A", "description": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C1B": { "label": "b. Federal Reserve", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C1B", "description": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C1C": { "label": "c. European Central Bank", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C1C", "description": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C1D": { "label": "d. Bank of England", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C1D", "description": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C2A": { "label": "a. Bonds with terms of 5 years or less", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C2A", "description": "Bank of Canada" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C2B": { "label": "b. Bonds with terms longer than 5 years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C2B", "description": "" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C3": { "label": "Estimates of the impact of quantitative easing on 10-year yields, by size of program", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C3", "description": "Size of asset purchase programs as a percentage of domestic GDP\n\nThe horizonal axis measures the size of the purchases conducted within each program as a share of domestic GDP. The data during the global financial crisis period are based on the study by Andrade et al. (2016). APF1 stands for asset purchase facility 1, APP stands for asset purchase programme, CME stands for comprehensive monetary easing (where ”+” denotes an extended period), MEP stands for maturity extension programme, and QQE stands for quantitative and qualitative easing." }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C4A": { "label": "a. Impulse response of real GDP to QE", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C4A", "description": "" }, "SDP_AZIZ20240515_C4B": { "label": "b. Impulse response of inflation to QE", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_AZIZ20240515_C4B", "description": "" }, "SDP_BEDP20190324": { "label": "Chapeau | Non-Bank Financial Intermediation in Canada: An Update", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_BEDP20190324", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future." }, "SDP_BEDP20190324_C1": { "label": "Since 2006, the Canadian NBFI sector has grown by 1.7 times", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_BEDP20190324_C1", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: DBRS, Markit, Morningstar, Ontario Securities Commission, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2017" }, "SDP_BEDP20190324_C2": { "label": "Despite strong growth in NBFI assets, their share relative to bank assets has declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_BEDP20190324_C2", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above.\nThe data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s).\n The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nSources: DBRS, Markit, Morningstar, Ontario Securities Commission, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations\n\nLast observation: 2017" }, "SDP_FUDU20210113": { "label": "Adoption of digital technologies: insights from a global survey initiative", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_FUDU20210113", "description": "Adoption of digital technologies: insights from a global survey initiative" }, "SDP_FUDU20210113_C1": { "label": "Cloud computing and e-commerce are widely adopted", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_FUDU20210113_C1", "description": "Technology adoption rates by sector—results from the Business Outlook Survey\n\nLast observation: 2018Q2\n\nSource: Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey" }, "SDP_FUDU20210113_C2": { "label": "Compared with small and medium-sized firms, large firms report more negative impacts on employment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SDP_FUDU20210113_C2", "description": "Distribution of propensity-score-matched firms' responses, n = 2,970\n\nLast observation: 2018Q2\n\nNote: Balance of opinion indicates the percentage of firms expecting an increase in employment minus the percentage expecting a decrease. Excludes firms citing "don't know" and regions that did not report firm size.\n\nSource: Central Bank Business Surveys and Liaison Program" }, "SEC_LENDING": { "label": "Securities-Lending Program", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SEC_LENDING", "description": "Securities-Lending Program" }, "SEC_LENDING_RESULTS_DETAILS": { "label": "Securities-Lending Program - Results Details", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SEC_LENDING_RESULTS_DETAILS", "description": "Securities-Lending Program - Results Details" }, "SEC_LENDING_RESULTS_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Securities-Lending Program - Results Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SEC_LENDING_RESULTS_OVERVIEW", "description": "Securities-Lending Program - Results Overview" }, "SEC_LENDING_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW": { "label": "Securities-Lending Program - Upcoming Overview", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SEC_LENDING_UPCOMING_OVERVIEW", "description": "Securities-Lending Program - Upcoming Overview" }, "SEC_REPO": { "label": "Securities Repo Operations", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SEC_REPO", "description": "Securities Repo Operations" }, "SLOS": { "label": "Senior Loan Officer Survey", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SLOS", "description": "The Senior Loan Officer Survey collects information on the business-lending practices of Canadian financial institutions. In particular, the Survey gathers the perspectives of respondents on price and non-price terms of business lending and on topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada. The survey is conducted quarterly, near the end of the quarter for which the results are reported." }, "slos_business_lending_conditions": { "label": "Overall business lending conditions: Balance of opinion", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/slos_business_lending_conditions", "description": "The balance of opinion is calculated as the weighted percentage of surveyed financial institutions reporting tightened credit conditions minus the weighted percentage reporting eased credit conditions. Thus, a positive balance of opinion implies a net tightening. \n\nNote: The chart shows the average of the balances of opinion for the price and non-price dimensions of lending conditions." }, "slos_household_lending": { "label": "Overall household lending conditions: Balance of Opinion", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/slos_household_lending", "description": "The balance of opinion is calculated as the weighted percentage of surveyed financial institutions reporting tightened credit conditions minus the weighted percentage reporting eased credit conditions. Thus, a positive balance of opinion implies a net tightening. \n\nNote: Each series shows the average of the balances of opinion for the price and non-price dimensions of lending conditions for each category of lending.\n" }, "slos_mortgage_lending": { "label": "Mortgage lending conditions: Balance of opinion", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/slos_mortgage_lending", "description": "The balance of opinion is calculated as the weighted percentage of surveyed financial institutions reporting tightened credit conditions minus the weighted percentage reporting eased credit conditions.\n\nNote: Each series is the simple average of the balances of opinion for high-ratio mortgages, low-ratio mortgages and home equity lines of credit." }, "slos_non_mortgage_lending": { "label": "Non-mortgage lending conditions: Balance of opinion", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/slos_non_mortgage_lending", "description": "The balance of opinion is calculated as the weighted percentage of surveyed financial institutions reporting tightened credit conditions minus the weighted percentage reporting eased credit conditions.\n\nNote: Each series is the simple average of the balances of opinion for auto loans and other consumer lending." }, "slos_price_lending_conditions": { "label": "Price and non-price lending conditions: Balance of opinion", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/slos_price_lending_conditions", "description": "The balance of opinion is calculated as the weighted percentage of surveyed financial institutions reporting tightened credit conditions minus the weighted percentage reporting eased credit conditions. \n\nNote: Each series is the simple average of the balances of opinion for the small business, commercial and corporate sectors." }, "SPEECH_ALEX20260513": { "label": "Productivity in the age of AI", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_ALEX20260513", "description": "Productivity in the age of AI" }, "SPEECH_ALEX20260513_C1": { "label": "Capital spending by hyperscalers is expected to increase significantly over the next four years", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_ALEX20260513_C1", "description": "Capital spending by hyperscalers is expected to increase significantly over the next four years" }, "SPEECH_ALEX20260513_C2": { "label": "Canadians say they are using artificial intelligence at work for a wide range of tasks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_ALEX20260513_C2", "description": "In what ways are you currently using AI in your workplace? (Share of consumers currently working)" }, "SPEECH_ALEX20260513_C3": { "label": "Workers expect AI to boost their productivity or help them start a business", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_ALEX20260513_C3", "description": "Over the next year, what are the chances that AI will...? (Share of respondents assigning more than 50% probability to each outcome; job outcomes are shown as net impacts)" }, "SPEECH_GRAV20241230": { "label": "The end of quantitative tightening and what comes next", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_GRAV20241230", "description": "The end of quantitative tightening and what comes next" }, "SPEECH_GRAV20241230_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Historical and projected settlement balances", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_GRAV20241230_C1", "description": "Note: The settlement balance forecast is highly uncertain and depends on many factors including, for example, the level of Receiver General (RG) cash balances deposited at the Bank of Canada. The forecast assumes a constant level of RG cash balances after fiscal year-end 2024–25. This could overstate settlement balances by the amount of funding that the government may need ahead of a large maturity. The forecast also does not include the value of any potential routine overnight repurchase agreement (repo) operations (or overnight reverse repo operations) conducted to reinforce the Bank’s policy target, which would increase (or decrease) the projected level of settlement balances.\n\nSource: Bank of Canada calculations and projections" }, "SPEECH_GRAV20241230_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The Bank of Canada’s asset maturity profile until 2030", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_GRAV20241230_C2", "description": "Source: Bank of Canada calculations and projections" }, "SPEECH_GRAV20241230_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Central bank assets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_GRAV20241230_C3", "description": "Total balance sheet for each central bank, as a percent of each jurisdiction’s four-quarter average nominal GDP\n\nSources: Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_KOZI20250605": { "label": "Speech - Sharon Kozicki - June 5, 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_KOZI20250605", "description": "Speech - Sharon Kozicki - June 5, 2025" }, "SPEECH_KOZI20250605_C1": { "label": "Business sentiment fell through the first quarter", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_KOZI20250605_C1", "description": "Excluding normal seasonal patterns, how would you rate current business conditions for your firm? (double-weighted balance of opinion*)\n\n*Percentage of firms reporting positive sentiment minus the percentage reporting negative sentiment. Responses of very good business conditions and very poor business conditions are given twice the weight of responses of good business conditions and poor business conditions. The range of potential outcomes of this double-weighted balance of opinion is -200% to 200%.\nThis question was not asked in September 2022.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "SPEECH_KOZI20250605_C2": { "label": "Sales expectations softened, especially for exporters", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_KOZI20250605_C2", "description": "Expected sales growth over next 12 months, relative to historical average\n\nThe historical average is taken from January 2022 through May 2025.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse" }, "SPEECH_KOZI20250605_C3": { "label": "Consumers’ inflation expectations increased earlier this year", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_KOZI20250605_C3", "description": "Inflation expectations for each horizon: What do you expect the rate of inflation (deflation) to be? (Interpolated median)" }, "SPEECH_KOZI20260302": { "label": "Canada’s monetary policy framework in a world of supply-driven trade-offs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_KOZI20260302", "description": "Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses the challenges of setting monetary policy in a world where supply-side developments are important drivers of inflation." }, "SPEECH_KOZI20260302_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Inflation targeting has helped keep inflation in Canada low and stable", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_KOZI20260302_C1", "description": "Sources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_KOZI20260302_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: In recent years, excess supply with inflation above target has become more common", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_KOZI20260302_C2", "description": "Inflation (deviation from 2%, in percentage points) and output gap (in percent)\n\nNote: This chart presents historical estimates of the output gap in real time (without revisions). For each quarter, the value plotted is the estimate published when the national accounts data for that quarter first became available. Estimates from 2011Q3 onward are taken from the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report for each quarter; earlier estimates come from Bank staff economic projections. CPI-trim is a measure of core inflation that excludes CPI components whose rates of change in a given month are located in the tails of the distribution of price changes. It also excludes the effect of indirect taxes. The values plotted reflect the data available at the time of publication of the January 2026 Report.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_KOZI20260302_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Our views on the economy evolve as we receive more information", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_KOZI20260302_C3", "description": "Inflation (deviation from 2%, in percentage points) and output gap (in percent)\n\nNote: This chart presents historical estimates of the output gap (both in real time and with revisions). For each quarter, the value plotted is the estimate published when the national accounts data for that quarter first became available. Estimates from 2011Q3 onward are taken from the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report for each quarter; earlier estimates come from Bank staff economic projections. CPI-trim is a measure of core inflation that excludes CPI components whose rates of change in a given month are located in the tails of the distribution of price changes. It also excludes the effect of indirect taxes. The values plotted reflect the data available at the time of publication of the January 2026 Report.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240624": { "label": "Speech Governor Macklem 2024-06-24", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240624", "description": "Speech Governor Macklem 2024-06-24" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240624_C1": { "label": "Job vacancies and inflation peaked and declined roughly in tandem", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240624_C1", "description": "Data from the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (JWVS) were not available from April 2020 to September 2020.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240624_C2": { "label": "Job vacancies have declined substantially, and unemployment has edged up", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240624_C2", "description": "Statistics Canada, Indeed and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240624_C3": { "label": "Unemployment is rising faster among newcomers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240624_C3", "description": "Unemployment rate, 3-month moving average\n\nNewcomers are non-permanent residents and permanent residents who landed 5 years ago or less.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240624_C4": { "label": "The rise in unemployment is greater for young workers", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240624_C4", "description": "Unemployment rates by age group, 3-month moving average\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240624_C5": { "label": "Canadian employment growth has outpaced that of other advanced economies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240624_C5", "description": "Seasonally adjusted hours worked, index: 2000Q1 = 100, quarterly data\n\nCanadian data for April and May 2024 from the Labour Force Survey average to an index value of 130.6.\n\nNational sources via Haver Analytics" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240624_C6": { "label": "Real GDP growth recovered sharply from the economic effects of the pandemic", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240624_C6", "description": "Seasonally adjusted, index: 2000Q1 = 100, quarterly data\n\nOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development via Haver Analytics" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910": { "label": "Rewired, recast and redirected: Global trade and implications for Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910", "description": "Rewired, recast and redirected: Global trade and implications for Canada" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Trade as a share of GDP", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910_C1", "description": "Note: The Irwin estimate is from D. A. Irwin, “Globalization is in retreat for the first time since the Second World War,” Peterson Institute for International Economics (October 2022). Penn World Table refers to A. Heston, R. Summers and B. Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.3, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, University of Pennsylvania (August 2009).\n\nSources: Irwin (2022), Penn World Table and World Bank" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Trade is growing faster in emerging and developing economies", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910_C2", "description": "Annual data, index: 1980 = 100\n\nNote: High-income countries are defined by the World Bank as economies with a gross national income per capita of more than US$14,005. For more detail, see the World Bank Country and Lending Groups list.\n\nSources: World Bank and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: In high-income countries, trade in services is growing faster than goods", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910_C3", "description": "Share of GDP, annual data, index: 1980 = 100\n\nNote: High-income countries are defined by the World Bank as economies with a gross national income per capita of more than US$14,005. For more detail, see the World Bank Country and Lending Groups list.\n\nSources: World Bank and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Trade restrictions have increased sharply", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910_C4", "description": "Number of interventions worldwide, annual data\n\nSource: Global Trade Alert" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Canada-US agreements have boosted trade", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910_C5", "description": "Total Canadian real international trade, annual data, chained 2017 dollars\n\nSources: International Monetary Fund, Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Canadian goods exports lag economic growth in major markets", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910_C6", "description": "Quarterly data, index: 2017 = 100\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Eurostat and US Bureau of Economic Analysis" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Canadian services exports have picked up, while goods are flat", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910_C7", "description": "Quarterly data, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate, chained 2017 dollars\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20240910_C8": { "label": "Chart 8: Commercial services export growth is driven by computer services", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20240910_C8", "description": "Annual data, nominal, by services type, index: 2019 = 100\n\nNote: Numbers in parentheses show each service type’s nominal share of total commercial services.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250221": { "label": "Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250221", "description": "Tariffs, structural change and monetary policy" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250221_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Excluding energy, Canada has had a trade deficit with the United States since 2007", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250221_C1", "description": "Canada–US trade balance in Can$ billions, annual data\n\nNote: Canada–US trade balance excluding energy uses customs data for energy trade, while Canada–US trade balance uses balance of payments data.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250221_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: High tariffs permanently lower the path for output", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250221_C2", "description": "Index: 2024 = 100, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250221_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Exports and business investment would fall sharply after tariffs are imposed", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250221_C3", "description": "Percentage change compared with the January projection, quarterly data\n\nSources: Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250221_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Consumption and output weaken until mid-2027", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250221_C4", "description": "Percentage change compared with the January projection, quarterly data\n\nSources: Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250221_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Total CPI inflation rises as upward pressure from tariffs outweighs the downward pressure from excess supply", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250221_C5", "description": "Percentage point difference in the year-over-year inflation rate compared with the January projection, quarterly data\n\nSources: Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250320": { "label": "Navigating tariff uncertainty", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250320", "description": "Navigating tariff uncertainty" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250320_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Uncertainty about trade policy has spiked", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250320_C1", "description": "Trade Policy Uncertainty index\n\nSource: Caldara et al. (2020)" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250320_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Faster pass-through of tariff costs leads to a sharper increase in inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250320_C2", "description": "Percentage point difference in the year-over-year inflation rate compared with the January projection, quarterly data\n\nSources: Bank of Canada calculations, estimates and projections" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250618": { "label": "Speech - Governor Tiff Macklem - June 18, 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250618", "description": "Speech - Governor Tiff Macklem - June 18, 2025" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250618_C1": { "label": "Tariff threats pulled forward Canadian exports and imports to and from the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250618_C1", "description": "Seasonally adjusted, nominal data; index: 2023 = 100\n\nStatistics Canada" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250618_C2": { "label": "Exports to and imports from other countries have risen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250618_C2", "description": "Seasonally adjusted, nominal data; index: 2023 = 100\n\nStatistics Canada" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250618_C3": { "label": "Employment has declined in sectors reliant on exports to the United States", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250618_C3", "description": "Employment, seasonally adjusted; index: 2023 = 1\n\nA sector is considered to have high reliance on exports to the United States if at least 35% of the sector’s jobs depend on US demand. These include several manufacturing and transportation subsectors as well as commodities sectors including energy and forestry. Together, they make up about 10% of employment.\n\nStatistics Canada" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250618_C4": { "label": "The employment outlook is weak, particularly for exporters", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250618_C4", "description": "Expected employment growth over the next 12 months, relative to historical average\n\nData are weighted by firm size. The historical average is taken from January 2022 through May 2025.\n\nBusiness Leaders' Pulse" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250923": { "label": "Speech - Governor Tiff Macklem - Global trade, capital flows and Canada’s prosperity", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250923", "description": "Speech - Governor Tiff Macklem - Global trade, capital flows and Canada’s prosperity" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250923_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Global trade as a share of GDP has stopped growing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250923_C1", "description": "Annual data\n\nNote: The Irwin estimate is from D. A. Irwin, “Globalization is in retreat since the Second World War,” Peterson Institute for International Economics (October 2022). Penn World Table refers to A. Heston, R. Summers and B. Aten, “Penn World Table Version 6.3, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices,” University of Pennsylvania (August 2009).\n\nSources: Irwin (2022), Penn World Table and World Bank via Haver Analytics" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250923_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: US tariffs have not been this high since the 1930s", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250923_C2", "description": "US weighted average tariff rate, annual data\n\nSources: US International Trade Commission and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250923_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: China’s exports to countries other than the United States have risen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250923_C3", "description": "Nominal exports by destination, billions of US dollars, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nSources: China’s General Administration of Customs via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250923_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: Trade imbalances are growing", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250923_C6", "description": "Goods and services balance as a share of world GDP, annual data\n\nSources: International Monetary Fund and Eurostat via Haver Analytics" }, "SPEECH_MACK20250923_C7": { "label": "Chart 7: Higher tariffs will put the economy on a permanently lower path", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20250923_C7", "description": "Level of real GDP, index: 2025Q1 = 100, quarterly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "SPEECH_MACK20260205": { "label": "Structural change—Canada at a crossroads", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20260205", "description": "Structural change—Canada at a crossroads" }, "SPEECH_MACK20260205_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Exports are sharply lower due to US tariffs", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20260205_C1", "description": "Percentage change since 2024Q3, quarterly data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "SPEECH_MACK20260205_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The level of goods imports from the United States has fallen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20260205_C2", "description": "Nominal, customs basis, seasonally adjusted, annualized data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20260205_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Exports to markets outside the United States have increased", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20260205_C3", "description": "Change in Canada’s exports of goods since 2024, by destination, annualized data\n\nExports of goods exclude those originating from the gold and silver ore mining industry because shipments of gold are highly volatile and often reflect inventory management. Shipments of gold do not reflect underlying production levels or demand because gold is frequently re-exported, stored or shipped for financial or custodial reasons. Annual averages are calculated using 2024 and 2025 data from January to November of each year.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20260205_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Employment in sectors with high reliance on US exports has declined", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20260205_C4", "description": "Employment level, index: December 2024 = 100, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nA sector is considered to have significant reliance on exports to the United States if at least 35% of the sector’s jobs depend on US demand. These include several manufacturing and transportation subsectors as well as commodities sectors, including energy and forestry.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MACK20260205_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: The job finding rate has fallen much more in occupations that are exposed to artificial intelligence", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20260205_C5", "description": "Differences in job finding rate between occupations that are more vs less exposed to AI\n\nThe difference is estimated using a regression of job finding probability on occupation-level AI exposure as defined in M. Benítez-Rueda and E. Parrado, “Mirror, Mirror on the Wall: Which Jobs Will AI Replace After All? A New Index of Occupational Exposure,” Inter-American Development Bank Working Paper Series, no. 1624 (2024)\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations and estimates" }, "SPEECH_MACK20260205_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: The share of entry-level job vacancies has fallen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MACK20260205_C6", "description": "Share of vacancies by years of experience required, not seasonally adjusted, quarterly data\n\nThe Job Vacancy and Wage Survey was temporarily suspended during the pandemic.\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MEND20241119": { "label": "Sticking the landing: Keeping inflation at 2%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20241119", "description": "Sticking the landing: Keeping inflation at 2%" }, "SPEECH_MEND20241119_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Measures of long-term inflation expectations remained stable even as inflation rose", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20241119_C1", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change, monthly and quarterly data\n\nNote: Core inflation is defined as the average of CPI-trim and CPI-median. Data on inflation expectations are from the Business Leaders’ Pulse for businesses and from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations for households. Business inflation expectations are at the monthly frequency, while household inflation expectations are at a quarterly frequency. Questions on inflation expectations were not asked in the January or March 2022 Business Leaders’ Pulse.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MEND20241119_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: The Canadian economy was in excess demand in the post-pandemic period", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20241119_C2", "description": "Quarterly data\n\nNote: All data are seasonally adjusted. For more information on how the data on vacancies are constructed, see A. Lam, “Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2022-18 (November 2022).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MEND20241119_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Inflation becomes more responsive to changes in activity when there is significant excess demand in the economy", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20241119_C3", "description": "Seasonally adjusted quarterly data, sample: 2004Q1–2024Q2\n\nNote: Core inflation is defined as the average of CPI-trim and CPI-median. The horizontal axis shows the log of the ratio of vacancies to unemployment, minus the log of its pre-pandemic average (2004Q1 to 2019Q4). For more information on how the data on vacancies are constructed, see A. Lam, “Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market,” Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note No. 2022-18 (November 2022).\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MEND20241119_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Prices for energy and food increased more than overall consumer prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20241119_C4", "description": "Index: 2019 = 100, monthly data\n\nNote: Food is defined as prices of food purchased in stores.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MEND20251002": { "label": "Speech - Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes - Underlying inflation: Separating the signal from the noise", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20251002", "description": "Speech - Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes - Underlying inflation: Separating the signal from the noise" }, "SPEECH_MEND20251002_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Core inflation is less volatile than total inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20251002_C1", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change\n\nNote: The range of core measures includes CPI-trim, CPI-median, CPI-common, CPIXFET and CPIX. CPIXFET excludes food and energy prices. CPIX excludes eight volatile components of the consumer price index. All measures of core inflation exclude indirect taxes.\n\nSource: Statistics Canada" }, "SPEECH_MEND20251002_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: The share of CPI components growing above 3% has risen", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20251002_C3", "description": "Deviation from historical average\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MEND20251002_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: The breadth of price pressures suggests inflation of around 2.5%", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20251002_C4", "description": "Note: The trend is estimated using a linear regression based on a sample from January 1995 to August 2025.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MEND20251002_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: A rise in inflation in prices for goods excluding energy is offsetting a decline in inflation in shelter services prices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20251002_C5", "description": "Deviation of year-over-year percentage change from historical average (1995-2019)\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_MEND20251002_C6": { "label": "Chart 6: The multivariate core trend inflation measure breaks down the persistent component of inflation", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_MEND20251002_C6", "description": "Year-over-year percentage change\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20251119": { "label": "Speech - DG Nicolas Vincent - 2025-11-19", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20251119", "description": "Speech - DG Nicolas Vincent - 2025-11-19" }, "SPEECH_VINC20251119_C1": { "label": "Canada’s labour productivity continues to fall", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20251119_C1", "description": "Labour productivity growth, business sector, annual data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20251119_C2": { "label": "Canada’s labour productivity continues to fall behind that of other G7 countries", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20251119_C2", "description": "Real GDP per hour worked, constant 2020 US dollars at purchasing power parity, annual data\n\nOther G7 countries refers to the simple average of the productivity level across all G7 countries excluding Canada and the United States.\n\nOrganisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20251119_C3": { "label": "Real wages and labour productivity have evolved similarly over time", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20251119_C3", "description": "Index: 2017 = 100, annual data\n\nStatistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20251119_C4": { "label": "The trend in Canada’s export intensity shifted after 2000", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20251119_C4", "description": "Share of exports as a percentage of GDP, annual data\n\nWorld Bank" }, "SPEECH_VINC20251119_C5": { "label": "Canada continues to lose ground to peer countries on business investment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20251119_C5", "description": "Real share of machinery and equipment and weapon systems as percentage of GDP, quarterly data\n\nG7 countries in Europe is a simple average of the share for France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom.\n\nOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development via Haver Analytics and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20260528": { "label": "Canada’s labour market: between cycles and structural change", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20260528", "description": "Canada’s labour market: between cycles and structural change" }, "SPEECH_VINC20260528_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Employment growth has been slower since the start of 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20260528_C1", "description": "Seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: Employment growth needed to keep the employment rate constant is calculated by multiplying the net monthly change in the size of the working-age population in the Labour Force Survey by the previous month’s employment rate.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20260528_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Low job finding and job changing rates, combined with low layoffs, are contributing to low labour market turnover", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20260528_C2", "description": "Three-month moving average, seasonally adjusted, monthly data\n\nNote: The job finding rate is based on transitions from unemployment to employment, while the layoff rate reflects movement from employment to unemployment due to permanent or temporary separations. The job changing rate captures movement between jobs—workers who remain employed from month to month while changing employers.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20260528_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Employment rates for older workers have risen slightly", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20260528_C3", "description": "Change in employment rates since December 2022, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20260528_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: A higher share of unemployed people have been out of work long term", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20260528_C4", "description": "Percentage of unemployed people out of work for 27 weeks or more, monthly data\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "SPEECH_VINC20260528_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: The increase in long-term unemployment is affecting young people more than it did during the 1990s recession or the 2008–09 global financial crisis", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SPEECH_VINC20260528_C5", "description": "Share of people aged 15 to 24 in the increase in unemployment\n\nNote: For the 1990s recession, the change is calculated from the second quarter of 1990 to the fourth quarter of 1992. For the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the change is calculated from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009. For the period since the first quarter of 2023, the calculation runs through the first quarter of 2026. Long-term unemployment is defined as unemployment lasting 27 weeks or more.\n\nSources: Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "swp-2012-37": { "label": "Staff Working Paper 2012-37", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/swp-2012-37", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources:\nStatistics Canada, Consensus Economics\nContact person:\nBruno Fenou (BFeunou@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "swp-2013-37": { "label": "Staff Working Paper 2013-37", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/swp-2013-37", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources:\nMontréal Exchange, Thomson Reuters\nContact person:\nBo Young Chang (bchang@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "swp-2013-42": { "label": "Staff Working Paper 2013-42", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/swp-2013-42", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources:\nStatistics Canada\nNote from the author(s):\nThe date field shows the state of real economic activity in real time and is based on data available on that date.\nContact person:\nGitanjali Kumar (gkumar@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "swp-2015-46": { "label": "Staff Working Paper 2015-46", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/swp-2015-46", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described below. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future. A contact person is listed below for any question or other inquiry.\nSources:\nCRSP Fixed Income Database\nContact person:\nJean-Sébastien Fontaine (jsfontaine@bank-banque-canada.ca)" }, "swp-2017-44": { "label": "International Relative Value Indices", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/swp-2017-44", "description": "This file contains data based on the Bank of Canada research paper described above. The data is not an official statistical release by the Bank of Canada, and it is provided on a voluntary basis by the author(s). The Bank and the author(s) are not responsible for errors in this file and do not guarantee that the series will be updated in the future.\nAggregate relative value indices for sovereign issuers in different advanced economies. The figures were computed using end-of-day yields for bonds with between 1 and 10 years remaining until maturity." }, "SWP-C": { "label": "Personal consumption expenditures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-C", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-CIRINV": { "label": "Sum of Personal consumption expenditures, residential investment and investment in inventories", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-CIRINV", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-G": { "label": "Government expenditures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-G", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-GDP": { "label": "Real Gross Domestic Product", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-GDP", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-GDPN": { "label": "Nominal Gross Domestic Product", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-GDPN", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-GNEN": { "label": "Nominal Gross National Expenditure", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-GNEN", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-I": { "label": "Investment (Gross fixed capital formation)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-I", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-IINVT": { "label": "Inventory investment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-IINVT", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-IRES": { "label": "Residential Investment", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-IRES", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-LYGAP": { "label": "Output gap", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-LYGAP", "description": "(i)\tStaff have used filters (to varying degrees) to estimate the output gap and potential output over history. For example, the EMVF has been used since 1992, as well as the IF and the MSSF since 2013.\n(ii)\tOver the projection horizon, staff has forecasted output gaps using the RDXF model for vintages prior to 1993, QPM for vintages up to 2005, ToTEM for vintages between 2006 and 2015, and a combination of ToTEM and LENS for vintages after 2015." }, "SWP-M": { "label": "Imports of Goods and Services", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-M", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-PC": { "label": "Deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-PC", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-PCIRINV": { "label": "Deflator for CIRINV", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-PCIRINV", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-PCPI": { "label": "Consumer Price Index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-PCPI", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-PCPIX": { "label": "Core Consumer Price Index", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-PCPIX", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-PGDP": { "label": "Implicit Price Deflator for GDP", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-PGDP", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-PGNE": { "label": "Implicit Price Deflator for GNE", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-PGNE", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-R1N": { "label": "Staff projection policy rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-R1N", "description": "This is the implied policy rate path that is run through the staff projection. It may differ from Governing Council’s actual policy rate. \nScroll down for data." }, "SWP-R20N": { "label": "5-year Federal Government bonds rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-R20N", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-URATE": { "label": "Unemployment rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-URATE", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-USCANPFX": { "label": "U.S. / CAD nominal exchange rate", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-USCANPFX", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "SWP-X": { "label": "Exports of Goods and Services", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/SWP-X", "description": "Scroll down for data." }, "TBILL_ALL": { "label": "Selected Treasury Bill Yields", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TBILL_ALL", "description": "1, 3, 6 and 12 month Treasury bill data." }, "TBILL_TUESDAY": { "label": "Selected Treasury Bill Yields - Weekly: Tuesday", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TBILL_TUESDAY", "description": "3, 6 and 12 month Treasury bill data." }, "TBILL_WEDNESDAY": { "label": "Selected Treasury Bill Yields - Weekly: Wednesday", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TBILL_WEDNESDAY", "description": "1, 3, 6 and 12 month Treasury bill data." }, "TCFD_2023": { "label": "Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2023", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023", "description": "Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2023" }, "TCFD_2023_C1": { "label": "Weighted average carbon intensity of the Bank of Canada's balance sheet", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C1", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2023_C2": { "label": "Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada’s portfolio of corporate securities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C2", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2023_C3": { "label": "Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada’s portfolio of Government of Canada securities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C3", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2023_C4": { "label": "Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada’s portfolio of provincial securities", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C4", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2023_C5": { "label": "Weighted average carbon intensity of portfolios in the Bank of Canada Pension Plan", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C5", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2023_C6": { "label": "Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada Pension Plan’s public equity portfolio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C6", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2023_C7": { "label": "Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada Pension Plan’s corporate bond holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C7", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2023_C8": { "label": "Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada Pension Plan’s provincial bond holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C8", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2023_C9": { "label": "Physical risk scores for the Bank of Canada Pension Plan’s real estate equity holdings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2023_C9", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2024": { "label": "Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2024", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024", "description": "Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2024" }, "TCFD_2024_C1": { "label": "Greenhouse gas emissions from Bank of Canada buildings", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C1", "description": "Emissions from buildings include the following sources: natural gas, diesel generators, fugitive emissions from refrigerants, electricity, steam and chilled water. Scope  2 emissions reported for electricity are calculated using the market-based approach (refer to the GHG Protocol Scope 2 Guidance), whereby procurement of renewable electricity using renewable electricity certificates is taken into account." }, "TCFD_2024_C1A": { "label": "Physical and transition risks by sector", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C1A", "description": "Share of firms affected by or expecting to be affected by climate-related risks in the next three years\n\nFIREL is finance, insurance, real estate and leasing; TRADE is transportation and warehousing, wholesale and retail trade; AFR is accommodations, food and recreation services.\n\nBusiness Leaders’ Pulse, March 2024" }, "TCFD_2024_C1B": { "label": "Consumers are changing their consumption behaviour in response to climate risks", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C1B", "description": "Over the past two years, have you changed your behaviour in response to climate change and related policies such as carbon pricing and home improvement grants?\n\nCanadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, 2024Q3" }, "TCFD_2024_C2": { "label": "Bank of Canada greenhouse gas emissions, scope 1 and scope 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C2", "description": "The emissions reported are calculated using the location-based approach (refer to the GHG Protocol Scope 2 Guidance), whereby procurement of renewable electricity using renewable electricity certificates is not taken into account." }, "TCFD_2024_C3": { "label": "Water use at the Bank of Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C3", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2024_C4": { "label": "Greenhouse gas emissions from bank notes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C4", "description": "Scope 2 emissions from Bank operation centres are calculated using the location-based approach (refer to the GHG Protocol Scope 2 Guidance)." }, "TCFD_2024_C5": { "label": "Water consumption from bank notes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C5", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2024_C6": { "label": "Waste from bank notes", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C6", "description": "" }, "TCFD_2024_C7": { "label": "Weighted average carbon intensity of the Bank of Canada’s investments portfolio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C7", "description": "tCO2e is tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. The Government of Canada and provincial securities groupings use gross domestic product (GDP) as the denominator, and the corporate bonds groupings use company sales. Annual average exchange rates are used for the conversion to Canadian dollars where necessary.\n\nOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Bank, Statistics Canada, MSCI and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "TCFD_2024_C8": { "label": "Weighted average carbon intensity of the portfolios in the Bank of Canada Pension Plan", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2024_C8", "description": "Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Bank, Statistics Canada, MSCI and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "TCFD_2025": { "label": "Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2025", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2025", "description": "Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2025" }, "TCFD_2025_C1": { "label": "Chart 1: Bank of Canada greenhouse gas emissions, scope 1 and scope 2", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2025_C1", "description": "Note: Figures are reported using the market-based approach. This means the figures account for the purchase of renewable electricity certificates, which the Bank began procuring in 2022. For more details, see the Appendix." }, "TCFD_2025_C2": { "label": "Chart 2: Bank of Canada greenhouse gas emissions, scope 3 (bank note production and distribution)", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2025_C2", "description": "Chart 2: Bank of Canada greenhouse gas emissions, scope 3 (bank note production and distribution)" }, "TCFD_2025_C3": { "label": "Chart 3: Water use at the Bank of Canada", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2025_C3", "description": "Chart 3: Water use at the Bank of Canada" }, "TCFD_2025_C4": { "label": "Chart 4: Weighted average carbon intensity of the Bank of Canada's investments portfolio", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2025_C4", "description": "Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Bank, Statistics Canada, MSCI and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "TCFD_2025_C5": { "label": "Chart 5: Weighted average carbon intensity of portfolios in the Bank of Canada Pension Plan", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TCFD_2025_C5", "description": "Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), World Bank, Statistics Canada, MSCI and Bank of Canada calculations" }, "TERM_REPOS": { "label": "Term Repos", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TERM_REPOS", "description": "Term Repos" }, "TERM_REPO_RESULTS": { "label": "Term Repos - Results", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TERM_REPO_RESULTS", "description": "Term Repos - Results" }, "TERM_REPO_UPCOMING": { "label": "Term Repos - Upcoming", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TERM_REPO_UPCOMING", "description": "Term Repos - Upcoming" }, "TR_SCHED": { "label": "Preliminary quarterly schedule", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/TR_SCHED", "description": "Preliminary quarterly schedule" }, "UKRAINE_SOVEREIGNTY_BOND": { "label": "Ukraine Sovereignty Bond", "link": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/groups/UKRAINE_SOVEREIGNTY_BOND", "description": "Ukraine Sovereignty Bond" } } }