June 8, 2023
Monetary policy
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Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update
We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth. -
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%. -
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023
We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment. -
May 4, 2023
Getting inflation back to 2%
Governor Tiff Macklem explains that higher interest rates are working to slow inflation but warns that getting all the way back to the 2% target may take time. He also discusses the recent stress in the global banking sector and how financial stability and price stability work together. -
May 4, 2023
Staying the course to price stability
Governor Tiff Macklem explains how monetary policy is working to bring inflation down and outlines the challenges ahead. He also discusses recent stress in the global banking sector and how financial stability and price stability interact. -
Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media
News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media. -
Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey
We review the literature on central bank forecasting with a special focus on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada. -
March 9, 2023
Economic progress report: Thinking globally, acting locally
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate decision and recent global and domestic developments, including how Canada’s economic and inflation experience compares with other countries. -
March 9, 2023
Understanding the reasons for high inflation
Speaking a day after we decided to hold the policy rate, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about the factors behind high inflation and how we know inflation is falling.