Economic models
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Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP
The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter. -
Convergence in a Stochastic Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model
The authors characterize the equilibrium for a small economy in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model with uncertainty. -
Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies
The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel. -
Working Time over the 20th Century
From 1870 to 2000, the workweek length of employed persons decreased by 41 per cent in industrialized countries. -
Benchmark Index of Risk Appetite
Changes in investors' risk appetite have been used to explain a variety of phenomena in asset markets. -
The Welfare Implications of Inflation versus Price-Level Targeting in a Two-Sector, Small Open Economy
The authors analyze the welfare implications of simple monetary policy rules in the context of an estimated model of a small open economy for Canada with traded and non-traded goods, and with sticky prices and wages. -
Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model with a Financial Accelerator
The authors estimate a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with a financial accelerator, à la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999), to assess the importance of financial frictions in the amplification and propagation of the effects of transitory shocks. -
Forecasting Canadian Time Series with the New Keynesian Model
The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada. -
December 2, 2005
From Flapper to Bluestocking: What Happened to the Young Woman of Wellington Street?
Helliwell traces the changes that have occurred at the Bank of Canada since the early 1960s, when he first began a long and extensive relationship with the institution and its staff. He begins with his work on the Royal Commission on Banking and Finance (the Porter Commission) and continues over the next 40 years, giving particular focus to the Bank's analytic and research activities. Although he is careful to note the benefits of alternative analytical and information-gathering techniques, such as the extensive mail and direct interview survey that he and his colleagues conducted as part of the Royal Commission, Helliwell devotes most of his attention to the Bank's econometric modelling efforts, starting with RDX1 and RDX2 in the late 1960s and early 1970s. He cites some of the internal, as well as external, obstacles that had to be overcome as the Bank's modelling efforts advanced, and how shifting trends in the economics profession have sometimes posed a challenge. Helliwell concludes that these developments helped the Bank to come of age and take its place in the front ranks of the world's evidence-based policy-research institutions.