Business fluctuations and cycles - Bank of Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rss-feeds/
Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T14:00:21+00:00Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-working-paper-2024-10/
We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature.2024-03-27T12:42:07+00:00enForecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach2024-03-27Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsStaff Working Paper 2024-10https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/swp2024-10.pdfForecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model ApproachAntoine Poulin-MooreKerem TuzcuogluMarch 2024CC5C51C53EE3E32How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/02/staff-working-paper-2024-5/
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.2024-02-16T10:31:48+00:00enHow Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty2024-02-16Business fluctuations and cyclesInflation and pricesMonetary policy and uncertaintyStaff Working Paper 2024-5https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/swp2024-5.pdfHow Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation UncertaintyTao WangFebruary 2024DD8D84EE3E31E7E71Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-working-paper-2023-59/
Perceived income risks reported in a survey of consumer expectations are more heterogeneous and, on average, lower than indirectly calibrated risks based on panel data. They prove to be one explanation for why a large fraction of households hold very little liquid savings and why accumulated wealth is widely unequal across households.2023-12-27T11:44:56+00:00enPerceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models2023-12-27Business fluctuations and cyclesMonetary policyMonetary policy and uncertaintyStaff Working Paper 2023-59https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/swp2023-59.pdfPerceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption ModelsTao WangDecember 2023DD1D14EE2E21E7E71GG5G51Finding the balance—measuring risks to inflation and to GDP growth
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-analytical-note-2023-18/
Using our new quantitative tool, we show how the risks to the inflation and growth outlooks have evolved over the course of 2023.2023-12-19T11:22:43+00:00enFinding the balance—measuring risks to inflation and to GDP growth2023-12-19Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/staff-working-paper-2023-52/
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.2023-10-05T14:31:46+00:00enLabor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy2023-10-05Business fluctuations and cyclesInflation and pricesLabour marketsMonetary policyStaff Working Paper 2023-52https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/swp2023-52.pdfStaff Working Paper 2023-52Serdar BirinciFatih KarahanYusuf MercanKurt SeeOctober 2023EE1E12E2E24E5E52JJ3J31J6J62J64Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/09/staff-working-paper-2023-49/
A regulator would want to restrict dividends to force banks to rebuild capital during a crisis. But such a policy is not time-consistent. A time-consistent policy would let banks gradually rebuild capital and pay dividends even when their equity remains below pre-crisis levels.2023-09-27T13:03:27+00:00enShould Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?2023-09-27Business fluctuations and cyclesCredit and credit aggregatesCredit risk managementFinancial stabilityFinancial system regulation and policiesLender of last resortStaff Working Paper 2023-49https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/swp2023-49.pdfStaff Working Paper 2023-49Josef SchrothSeptember 2023EE1E13E3E32E4E44Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/09/staff-discussion-paper-2023-19/
This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022.2023-09-13T06:00:12+00:00enForecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency2023-09-13Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsStaff Discussion Paper 2023-19https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/sdp2023-19.pdfForecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily FrequencyChinara AzizovaBruno FeunouJames KyeongSeptember 2023CC3C32C5C58EE4E44GG1G17The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/08/staff-working-paper-2023-48/
A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings.2023-08-28T11:39:12+00:00enThe Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions2023-08-28Business fluctuations and cyclesCredit and credit aggregatesDebt managementHousingStaff Working Paper 2023-48https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/swp2023-48.pdfThe Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During RecessionsSoyoung LeeAugust 2023EE2E21E3E32E6A Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/08/staff-working-paper-2023-44/
This paper studies exchange rate dynamics by incorporating bounded rationality, that is, limited foresight, in a small open-economy model. This behavior of limited foresight helps explain several observations and puzzles in the data of exchange rate movements.2023-08-17T08:56:50+00:00enA Behavioral New Keynesian Model of a Small Open Economy Under Limited Foresight2023-08-17Business fluctuations and cyclesExchange ratesInternational topicsMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2023-44https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/swp2023-44.pdfStaff Working Paper 2023-44Seunghoon NaYinxi XieAugust 2023EE4E43E7E70FF3F31F4F41Linking the chains
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/06/linking-the-chains/
The things we buy come out of complex production chains that span the globe.2023-06-30T13:00:04+00:00enLinking the chains2023-06-30