January 14, 1997 Annual Report 1996 In 1996 inflation remained within the Bank’s target range but was subject to downward pressure. The low rate of inflation contributed to a major easing in monetary conditions, and interest rates reached their lowest level in 30 years. Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
January 11, 1997 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1996-1997 Cover page P.N. Breton, Canadian numismatist The book, pamphlet, and advertising piece shown are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by James Zagon. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
La courbe de Phillips au Canada : un examen de quelques hypothèses Staff Working Paper 1997-3 Jean-François Fillion, André Léonard This study, which draws on a variety of research on price dynamics in Canada, examines some hypotheses that might explain the poor quality of recent inflation forecasts based on the conventional Phillips curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E3, E31
Fads or Bubbles? Staff Working Paper 1997-2 Huntley Schaller, Simon van Norden This paper tests between fads and bubbles using a new empirical strategy (based on switching-regression econometrics) for distinguishing between competing asset-pricing models. By extending the Blanchard and Watson (1982) model, we show how stochastic bubbles can lead to regime-switching in stock market returns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C4, C40, G, G1, G12
Reconsidering Cointegration in International Finance: Three Case Studies of Size Distortion in Finite Samples Staff Working Paper 1997-1 Marie-Josée Godbout, Simon van Norden This paper reconsiders several recently published but controversial results about the behaviour of exchange rates. In particular, it explores finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests and shows how these may have affected the conclusions of recent research. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C2, C22, C3, C32, F, F3, F31
December 11, 1996 The impact of exchange rate movements on consumer prices Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1996-1997 Thérèse Laflèche In the first, mostly theoretical, part of this article, the author analyses the factors that affect the pass-through of exchange rate movements to consumer prices. In the second part, she studies the recent Canadian experience in this area, starting from 1992. The analysis in the first part of the article is used to investigate why the depreciation of the Canadian dollar by almost 20 per cent between 1992 and 1994 did not produce as much of an increase in the inflation rate as predicted by conventional estimates of the exchange rate pass-through. The author first explains this phenomenon using the factors described in the theoretical part of the article: demand conditions, the costs of adjusting prices, and expectations about the depreciation's duration. She then examines the role of more specific factors, such as the abolition of customs duties on trade between Canada and the United States and the restructuring of the retail market. It is clear that the latter two factors helped neutralize the effect of the depreciation on prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission
December 10, 1996 The maturity structure of household financial assets and liabilities Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1996-1997 Marie-Claude Montplaisir In this article, the author examines the maturity structure of the household sector's balance sheet and the degree of interest rate variability of household loans and financial assets. The bulk of households' interest-bearing assets and financial liabilities consists of medium- and long-term, fixed-rate instruments. The pattern of personal consumption is therefore influenced more by the wealth effects of interest rate changes than by their income effects, and the full impact of a permnent shift in interest rates on consumption will become apparent only after a lag. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Sectoral balance sheet
December 9, 1996 The Canadian market for zero-coupon bonds Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1996-1997 Miles Whittingham A conventional bond is a debt instrument consisting of a series of periodic coupon payments plus the repayment of the principal at maturity. As the name suggests, a zero-coupon bond has no coupon payments. It has only a single payment consisting of the repayment of the principal at maturity. The zero-coupon bond is sold at a discount and then redeemed for its face value at maturity. The return to the investor is the difference between the face value of the bond and its discounted purchase price. In this article, the author examines the investment characteristics of zero-coupon bonds. In particular, a type of zero-coupon bond known as a strip bond is discussed. A strip bond is created by stripping coupon payments from conventional bonds. The strip bond market in Canada has grown substantially since the late 1980s and is now an integral part of Canadian fixed-income markets. As well, the opportunity to trade in the strip bond market improves the liquidity and efficiency of Canadian fixed-income markets, thus helping to reduce the overall cost of borrowing to the government. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial markets
November 20, 1996 Monetary Policy Report – November 1996 This Report outlines recent developments in the Canadian economy that affect the rate of inflation and provides an account of the measures taken by the Bank of Canada to control inflation. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
November 11, 1996 Productivity growth in the commercial service sector Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1996 Dinah Maclean For over three decades, measured productivity growth in the commercial service sector has consistently lagged behind that of the goods-producing sector. At the same time, the service sector has greatly expanded its share of output and employment. Some commentators have suggested that this trend will reduce growth in total economy-wide productivity. In this article, the author reviews recent trends in productivity growth in services and the main factors affecting it. She concludes that services will likely contribute to increases in future productivity growth. There is a great diversity of experience within the service sector. While productivity is falling in some industries, factors such as technological change, deregulation, and increased competition have helped to increase it in others. Moreover, much of the growth in commercial service output is occurring in those industries with relatively high productivity growth. Difficulties in measuring output for some service activities may also be resulting in underestimation of output and productivity growth. To the extent that services are used as intermediate inputs in the production of goods, underestimating productivity growth in the service industry would cause an offsetting overestimation of productivity growth in goods-producing industries. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Productivity