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8939 Results

January 15, 2024

Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2023

Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that with high interest rates and soft demand, firms’ sales growth has slowed over the past 12 months. Firms are less optimistic about current business conditions than they were last quarter, but they expect their sales growth to stabilize in the coming year. With competition returning and demand remaining soft, businesses’ pricing behaviour is slowly returning to normal.
January 15, 2024

Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2023

Consumers believe inflation has fallen, but their expectations for inflation in the near term are showing little progress in returning to pre-pandemic levels. Slow progress may be due to persistently high inflation expectations for services such as rent. In addition, consumers increasingly think domestic factors, such as high government spending, are supporting high inflation, and they believe these factors will take longer to resolve than global factors. Consumers have adjusted their behaviour in response to prolonged high inflation—more people are paying attention to inflation and changing their spending habits. However, actions that may support inflation, such as seeking wage increases to offset it, are dissipating. The negative effects of high interest rates are broadening, and indicators of household financial stress are deteriorating. Consumers remain uncertain about the economic outlook, and this uncertainty is weighing on their spending plans. Workers think the labour market has weakened slightly. However, expectations for wage growth remain high, supported by cost-of-living adjustments in some workers’ wage contracts.
January 9, 2024

Standing Term Liquidity Facility

Under the Standing Term Liquidity Facility (STLF), the Bank can provide loans to eligible financial institutions in need of temporary liquidity support if the Bank has no concerns about the institution’s financial soundness.

Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans

Staff Working Paper 2024-1 Shihan Xie, Victoria Wenxin Xie, Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.

Modelling Canadian mortgage debt and payments in a semi-structural model

Staff Analytical Note 2024-1 Fares Bounajm, Austin McWhirter
We show how Canadian mortgage debt dynamics can be modelled in a semi-structural macroeconomic model, such as the Bank of Canada’s LENS. The model we propose accounts for Canada’s unique mortgage debt structure.
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