Staff research

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Beating the “pros” with a semi-structural model of their own inflation forecasts

Staff working paper 2026-11 Sergio A. Lago Alves, Waldyr Dutra Areosa, Carlos Viana de Carvalho
How can Surveys of Professional Forecasters (SPF) be used to improve inflation forecasts? By using US historical quarterly data on SPF forecasts, we provide better understanding of how we can use forecast disagreement to improve our own forecasts.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C53, E, E3, E31, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
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