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The Sectoral Origins of Post-Pandemic Inflation

Staff working paper 2025-37 Jan David Schneider
This paper quantifies the contribution of sector-specific supply and demand shocks to personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation. It derives identification restrictions that are consistent with a large class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with production networks.

Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update

We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024.