Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update
We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes.
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7
result(s)
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation
Staff analytical note 2023-17
Julien Champagne,
Erik Ens,
Xing Guo,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Alexander Lam,
Corinne Luu,
Sarah Miller,
Patrick Sabourin,
Joshua Slive,
Temel Taskin,
Jaime Trujillo,
Shu Lin Wee
We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
JEL Code(s):
A,
A1,
A10,
E,
E2,
E20,
E3,
E31,
J,
J1,
J11,
J15
Research Theme(s):
Monetary policy,
Inflation dynamics and pressures,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
Demographics and labour supply
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update
Staff analytical note 2023-7
Erik Ens,
Kurt See,
Corinne Luu
We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21,
J6
Research Theme(s):
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
Demographics and labour supply
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health
Staff analytical note 2022-2
Erik Ens,
Corinne Luu,
Kurt See,
Shu Lin Wee
We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21,
J6
Research Theme(s):
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
Demographics and labour supply
Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk
Staff discussion paper 2022-1
Y.-H. Henry Chen,
Erik Ens,
Olivier Gervais,
Hossein Hosseini Jebeli,
Craig Johnston,
Serdar Kabaca,
Miguel Molico,
Sergey Paltsev,
Alex Proulx,
Argyn Toktamyssov
Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C68,
D,
D5,
D58,
E,
E5,
E50,
O,
O4,
O44,
P,
P1,
P18,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Research Theme(s):
Financial system,
Financial stability and systemic risk,
Models and tools,
Economic models,
Structural challenges,
Climate change
Assessing Labour Market Slack for Monetary Policy
Staff discussion paper 2021-15
Erik Ens,
Laurence Savoie-Chabot,
Kurt See,
Shu Lin Wee
Measuring labour market slack is essential for central banks: without full employment in the economy, inflation will not stay close to target. We propose a comprehensive approach to assessing labour market slack that reflects the complexity and diversity of the labour market.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21,
J6
Research Theme(s):
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy framework and transmission,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
Demographics and labour supply
Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change
Staff discussion paper 2020-3
Erik Ens,
Craig Johnston
This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Theme(s):
Financial system,
Financial stability and systemic risk,
Models and tools,
Economic models,
Structural challenges,
Climate change