Chinese Monetary Policy and Text Analytics: Connecting Words and Deeds
What are the main drivers behind the monetary policy reaction function of the People’s Bank of China?
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7
result(s)
Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?
Staff working paper 2018-12
Jeannine Bailliu,
Xinfen Han,
Mark Kruger,
Yu-Hsien Liu,
Sri Thanabalasingam
The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C38,
C5,
C55,
E,
E2,
E24,
E27
Research Theme(s):
Models and tools,
Econometric, statistical and computational methods,
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
Demographics and labour supply
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth
Staff discussion paper 2017-15
Mark Kruger,
Walter Steingress,
Sri Thanabalasingam
Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F14,
F17,
O,
O1,
O10
Research Theme(s):
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
International trade, finance and competitiveness
What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account
Staff discussion paper 2016-10
Mark Kruger,
Gurnain Pasricha
When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31,
F32,
G,
G1,
G18
Research Theme(s):
Financial markets and funds management,
International markets and currencies,
Financial system,
Financial stability and systemic risk,
Structural challenges,
International trade, finance and competitiveness
How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030
Staff working paper 2016-15
Jeannine Bailliu,
Mark Kruger,
Argyn Toktamyssov,
Wheaton Welbourn
Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E3,
E32,
O,
O4
Research Theme(s):
Models and tools,
Economic models,
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
Demographics and labour supply,
Digitalization and productivity
The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices
Staff discussion paper 2016-7
Mark Kruger,
Kun Mo,
Benjamin Sawatzky
The Chinese housing market has grown rapidly following its liberalization in the 1990s, generating significant economic activity and demand for base metals. In this paper, we discuss the evolution of the Chinese housing market and quantify its importance for the overall Chinese economy and its linkages to base metal prices.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
JEL Code(s):
Q,
Q3,
Q31,
R,
R3,
R31
Research Theme(s):
Financial markets and funds management,
Market functioning,
Monetary policy,
Real economy and forecasting,
Structural challenges,
International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Role of the International Monetary Fund in the Post-Crisis World
Staff discussion paper 2016-6
Mark Kruger,
Robert Lavigne,
Julie McKay
The International Monetary Fund (IMF, or the Fund) has undergone a number of significant policy changes and reforms in the wake of the global financial crisis. Most notably, in December 2015, the United States approved long-delayed legislation to increase the representation of developing countries in the Fund’s governance structure.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F33
Research Theme(s):
Financial markets and funds management,
International markets and currencies,
Financial system,
Financial stability and systemic risk,
Financial system regulation and oversight,
Structural challenges,
International trade, finance and competitiveness