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278
result(s)
The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable
Staff Working Paper 2019-13
Dany Brouillette,
Marie-Noëlle Robitaille,
Laurence Savoie-Chabot,
Pierre St-Amant,
Bassirou Gueye,
Elise Nelson
In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
C53,
E,
E2,
E24,
E27
Limited Commitment, Endogenous Credibility and the Challenges of Price-level Targeting
Staff Working Paper 2018-61
Gino Cateau,
Malik Shukayev
This paper studies the cost of limited commitment when a central bank has the discretion to adjust policy whenever the costs of honoring its past commitments become high. Specifically, we consider a central bank that seeks to implement optimal policy in a New Keynesian model by committing to a price-level target path.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52
Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-18
Thomas J. Carter,
Rhys R. Mendes,
Lawrence L. Schembri
In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E61
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts
Staff Working Paper 2018-52
Julien Champagne,
Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle,
Rodrigo Sekkel
We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E1,
E17,
E3,
E37
Introducing a Systematic Measure of Idiosyncratic Prices
Staff Analytical Note 2018-33
Madigan Dockrill,
Laurence Savoie-Chabot
There is a risk that Bank of Canada staff may inadvertently be biased when analyzing inflation: when inflation surprises on the downside, staff might emphasize negative idiosyncratic factors. When inflation surprises on the upside, staff might emphasize the positive idiosyncratic factors.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31
Price Selection
Staff Working Paper 2018-44
Carlos Carvalho,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We propose a simple, model-free way to measure selection in price setting and its contribution to inflation dynamics. The proposed measure of price selection is based on the observed comovement between inflation and the average level from which adjusting prices depart.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E51
The Welfare Cost of Inflation Revisited: The Role of Financial Innovation and Household Heterogeneity
Staff Working Paper 2018-40
Shutao Cao,
Césaire Meh,
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull,
Yaz Terajima
We document that, across households, the money consumption ratio increases with age and decreases with consumption, and that there has been a large increase in the money consumption ratio during the recent era of very low interest rates. We construct an overlapping generations (OLG) model of money holdings for transaction purposes subject to age (older households use more money), cohort (younger generations are exposed to better transaction technology), and time effects (nominal interest rates affect money holdings).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation: costs and benefits
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E4,
E41
Sluggish Forecasts
Staff Working Paper 2018-39
Monica Jain
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E37
On the Evolution of the United Kingdom Price Distributions
Staff Working Paper 2018-25
Ba M. Chu,
Kim Huynh,
David T. Jacho-Chávez,
Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We propose a functional principal components method that accounts for stratified random sample weighting and time dependence in the observations to understand the evolution of distributions of monthly micro-level consumer prices for the United Kingdom (UK).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C14,
C8,
C83,
E,
E3,
E31,
E37