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2333
result(s)
Assessing Labour Market Slack for Monetary Policy
Staff Discussion Paper 2021-15
Erik Ens,
Laurence Savoie-Chabot,
Kurt See,
Shu Lin Wee
Measuring labour market slack is essential for central banks: without full employment in the economy, inflation will not stay close to target. We propose a comprehensive approach to assessing labour market slack that reflects the complexity and diversity of the labour market.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Econometric and statistical methods,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21,
J6
Foreign Exchange Fixings and Returns Around the Clock
Staff Working Paper 2021-48
Ingomar Krohn,
Philippe Mueller,
Paul Whelan
We document a new empirical finding in the foreign exchange market: currency returns show systematic reversals around the benchmark fixings. Specifically, the US dollar, on average, appreciates in the hours before fixes and depreciates after fixes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31,
G,
G1,
G15
Energy Efficiency and Fluctuations in CO2 Emissions
Staff Working Paper 2021-47
Soojin Jo,
Lilia Karnizova
Carbon dioxide emissions have been commonly modelled as rising and falling with total output. Yet many factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements and shifts to cleaner energy, can break this relationship. We evaluate these factors using US data and find that changes in energy efficiency of consumption goods explain a significant proportion of emissions fluctuations. This finding also implies that models that omit energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Climate change,
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
Q,
Q4,
Q43,
Q5,
Q50,
Q55
More Money for Some: The Redistributive Effects of Open Market Operations
Staff Working Paper 2021-46
Christian Bustamante
I use a search-theoretic model of money to study how open market operations affect the conduct of monetary policy and what this means for households along the wealth distribution. In the model, households vary in the size and composition of their portfolios, which in turn implies that they may be unevenly affected by open market operations.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy implementation,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52
Covariates Hiding in the Tails
Staff Working Paper 2021-45
Milian Bachem,
Lerby Ergun,
Casper G. de Vries
We characterize the bias in cross-sectional Hill estimates caused by common underlying factors and propose two simple-to-implement remedies. To test for the presence, direction and size of the bias, we use monthly US stock returns and annual US Census county population data.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C01,
C1,
C14,
C5,
C58
A Q-Theory of Banks
Staff Working Paper 2021-44
Juliane Beganau,
Saki Bigio,
Jeremy Majerovitz,
Matías Vieyra
Using stock market data on banks, we show that the book value of loans recognizes losses with a delay. This delayed accounting is important for regulation because the requirements regulators impose are based on book values.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
G,
G2,
G21,
G3,
G32,
G33
Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline
Staff Analytical Note 2021-22
Olga Bilyk,
Ken Chow,
Yang Xu
We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C25,
D,
D1,
D14,
G,
G2,
G21,
G5,
G51,
R,
R2,
R21
Rising US LNG Exports and Global Natural Gas Price Convergence
Staff Discussion Paper 2021-14
Robert Ialenti
We assess how rising exports of US liquefied natural gas affect the convergence of natural gas prices worldwide. Our results may have implications for the development of future LNG export capacity in Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
F,
F1,
F15,
K,
K4,
K41,
L,
L9,
L95
Canadian housing supply elasticities
Staff Analytical Note 2021-21
Nuno Paixao
We explain how housing supply elasticities for Canadian cities are estimated. The procedure we use exploits the systematic differences in various cities’ sensitivity to regional house-price cycles.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Housing
JEL Code(s):
R,
R1,
R14,
R3,
R31,
R5,
R52