November 18, 2001
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278
result(s)
November 17, 2001
Predictability of Average Inflation over Long Time Horizons
Uncertainty about the level of future inflation adversely affects the economy because it distorts the savings and investment decisions of households and businesses. Since these decisions typically involve planning horizons of many years, the adverse effects from inflation uncertainty can be reduced by adopting a policy framework that makes future inflation more predictable over long time horizons. When the inflation-control target was renewed in May 2001, the agreement affirmed that monetary policy will be directed at moving inflation to the 2 per cent midpoint of the target range over a six-to-eight-quarter horizon. The author describes how this policy commitment increases the predictability of average inflation over periods longer than one year. This relationship is illustrated using the Canadian experience from the inflation-targeting period.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation targets
Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2001-18
Marc-André Gosselin,
Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E37
Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level
Staff Working Paper 2001-16
Gerald Stuber
This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation: costs and benefits
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E3,
E31,
E4,
E44
Gaining Credibility for Inflation Targets
Staff Working Paper 2001-11
James Yetman
In this paper, I consider a simple model in which agents learn about the inflation target of a central bank over time by observing the policy instrument or inflation outcomes. Measuring credibility as the distance between the perceived target and the actual target, an increase in credibility is beneficial to the central bank because it brings the policy consistent with attaining the inflation target closer to that required to attain the output target.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Inflation targets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52
How Rigid Are Nominal-Wage Rates?
Staff Working Paper 2001-8
Allan Crawford
This study examines the effect of nominal-wage rigidities on wage growth in Canada using a hazard model and micro data for union contracts. The hazard model is specified in a way that allows considerable flexibility in the shape of the estimated notional wage-change distribution.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation targets,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E61
Downward Nominal-Wage Rigidity: Micro Evidence from Tobit Models
Staff Working Paper 2001-7
Allan Crawford,
Geoff Wright
This paper uses Tobit models and data for union contracts to examine the extent of downward nominal-wage rigidity in Canada. To be consistent with important stylized facts, the models allow the variance of the notional wage-change distribution to be time-varying and test for menu-cost effects.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation targets,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E61
The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: How Important Is It?
Staff Working Paper 2001-6
David Amirault,
Brian O'Reilly
This paper surveys the literature on the zero bound on the nominal interest rate. It addresses questions ranging from the conditions under which the zero bound on the nominal interest rate might occur to policy options to avoid or use to exit from such a situation. We discuss literature that examines historical and country evidence, and literature that uses models to generate evidence on this question.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E61
On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve
Staff Working Paper 2001-4
Maral Kichian
This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneously, shows that the behaviour of expectations was probably a major contributing factor.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E37
On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting
Staff Working Paper 2001-3
Kevin Clinton
Two aspects of the recent monetary history of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand stand out: the sensitivity of their dollars to prices of resource-based commodities, and inflation targeting. This paper explores various aspects of these phenomena.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Inflation targets,
International topics,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F42