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1770 result(s)

On Inflation and the Persistence of Shocks to Output

Staff Working Paper 2001-22 Maral Kichian, Richard Luger
This paper empirically investigates the possibility that the effects of shocks to output depend on the level of inflation. The analysis extends Elwood's (1998) framework by incorporating in the model an inflation-threshold process that can potentially influence the stochastic properties of output.

A Consistent Bootstrap Test for Conditional Density Functions with Time-Dependent Data

Staff Working Paper 2001-21 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz
This paper describes a new test for evaluating conditional density functions that remains valid when the data are time-dependent and that is therefore applicable to forecasting problems. We show that the test statistic is asymptotically distributed standard normal under the null hypothesis, and diverges to infinity when the null hypothesis is false.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, E, E3, E37

The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds

Staff Working Paper 2001-20 Andy Haldane, Mark Kruger
Over the past year and a half, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties to deal with a crisis and preserve the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, F4, F42

Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2001-18 Marc-André Gosselin, Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.

Why Do Central Banks Smooth Interest Rates?

Staff Working Paper 2001-17 Gabriel Srour
It is commonly observed that central banks respond gradually to economic shocks, moving the interest rate in small discrete steps in the same direction over an extended period of time. This paper examines the empirical evidence regarding central banks' smoothing of interest rates, paying particular attention to the case of Canada.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5

Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level

Staff Working Paper 2001-16 Gerald Stuber
This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E31, E4, E44

Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation

Staff Working Paper 2001-15 David Bolder
Affine models describe the stylized time-series properties of the term structure of interest rates in a reasonable manner, they generalize relatively easily to higher dimensions, and a vast academic literature exists relating to their implementation. This combination of characteristics makes the affine class a natural introductory point for modelling interest rate dynamics.

L'effet de la richesse sur la consommation aux États-Unis

Staff Working Paper 2001-14 Yanick Desnoyers
The substantial growth in wealth over the course of the second half of the 1990s generated the equivalent of a certain level of savings, while simultaneously causing household savings rates to fall significantly. The author seeks to explain this decline in savings, observed since 1995, using the methodology developed by King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21

Predetermined Prices and the Persistent Effects of Money on Output

Staff Working Paper 2001-13 Michael Devereux, James Yetman
This paper illustrates a model of predetermined pricing, where firms set a fixed schedule of nominal prices at the time of price readjustment, based on the work of Fischer (1977). This type of price-setting specification cannot produce any excess persistence in a fixed-duration model of staggered prices, but we show that with a probabilistic model of price adjustment, as in Calvo (1983), a predetermined pricing specification can produce excess persistence.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30
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