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278
result(s)
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty
Staff Working Paper 2024-5
Tao Wang
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E3,
E31,
E7,
E71
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations
Staff Working Paper 2023-63
Olena Kostyshyna,
Luba Petersen
We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Credibility,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C93,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E5,
E59,
E7
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation
Staff Analytical Note 2023-17
Julien Champagne,
Erik Ens,
Xing Guo,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Alexander Lam,
Corinne Luu,
Sarah Miller,
Patrick Sabourin,
Joshua Slive,
Temel Taskin,
Jaime Trujillo,
Shu Lin Wee
We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components,
Housing,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
A,
A1,
A10,
E,
E2,
E20,
E3,
E31,
J,
J1,
J11,
J15
Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-27
Vivian Chu,
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Christopher Hajzler
This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Digitalization,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
L,
L1,
L11
Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-24
Daniel Hyun,
Jacky Lee
This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
Q,
Q0,
Q02,
Q1,
Q11,
Q17,
Q18
A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-23
Donald Coletti
The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C50,
C51,
C52,
C53,
C54,
C55
Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy
Staff Working Paper 2023-52
Serdar Birinci,
Fatih Karahan,
Yusuf Mercan,
Kurt See
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E12,
E2,
E24,
E5,
E52,
J,
J3,
J31,
J6,
J62,
J64
Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-18
Vivian Chu,
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Christopher Hajzler,
Pierre-Yves Yanni
We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Digitalization,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C8,
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
E5,
E52
The contribution of firm profits to the recent rise in inflation
Staff Analytical Note 2023-12
Panagiotis Bouras,
Christian Bustamante,
Xing Guo,
Jacob Short
We measure the contribution to inflation from the growth in markups of Canadian firms. The dynamics of inflation and markups suggest that changes in markups could account for less than one-tenth of inflation in 2021. Further, they suggest that peak inflation was driven primarily by changes in the costs of firms.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
D4,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L1,
L11