Research

High-quality, innovative research underpins everything we do. Find out about the Bank’s current research priorities, explore the broad range of staff research that our people have the intellectual freedom to pursue, and learn about the ways in which the Bank supports and collaborates with the external research community. You can also browse our research and subscribe to our monthly research newsletter and latest research feed.

Research Priorities

Guided by the Bank’s medium-term plan and shaped by the policy environment, the Bank dedicates significant effort and resources to a range of annual and multi-year research priorities.

The Bank’s Medium‐term Research Plan, 2019–21

Increasing the relevance and visibility of Bank research

Digital Currencies and Fintech

Understanding digital currencies and related financial technologies is an important part of our research agenda.

Toward 2021

Reviewing the Monetary Policy Framework.

Staff Research

Staff research is produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. This research may support or challenge prevailing policy orthodoxy or differ from official Bank views. Therefore, views expressed are solely those of the authors, and no responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank.

Staff Analytical Notes

Staff Analytical Notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.

Author List

Listing of current and past authors of Bank research papers, articles and other publications, 1994 to present.

Staff Working Papers

Staff Working Papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.

Our People

Profiles of the Bank’s economic research staff, featuring sections on their publications, education, and research interests.

Staff Discussion Papers

Staff Discussion Papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.

Research Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter summarizing internal and external publication contributions by Bank of Canada researchers.

Collaboration

Financial System Research Centre

The FSRC promotes financial system research in Canada to inform policy and improve the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.

Visiting Scholar Program

Information on the Bank of Canada’s collaborative research program for outstanding scholars

Conferences, Seminars and Workshops

Papers and proceedings from Bank of Canada conferences, seminars, and workshops

Partnerships in Innovation and Technology (PIVOT) Program

We’re looking for innovators to help us respond to challenges that may not have a commercial solution readily available.

Awards

Research Paper Awards

At the Bank of Canada, we’re pleased to offer awards for research papers by students and by staff.

Scholarship Awards

The Bank of Canada’s Scholarship and Work Placement program is designed to assist students with disabilities and Indigenous students in furthering their education and to encourage them to take an interest in the work performed by the Bank of Canada.

Fellowship Program

Learn more about a program to foster excellence in research in Canada and develop partnerships with experts outside the Bank of Canada in areas important to the Bank’s mandate.

The Governor's Challenge

The Governor’s Challenge simulates the monetary policy decision-making process by putting students in the role of advisor to the Bank’s Governing Council.

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Latest Research

Potential output in Canada: 2020 reassessment

After COVID-19, we expect potential output growth to stabilize around 1.2 percent. This is lower than the 2010–18 average growth of 1.8 percent. Relative to the April 2019 reassessment, the growth profile is revised down. Given the unknown course of the pandemic, uncertainty around these estimates is higher than in previous years.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update

Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel
The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate.

Announcing the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility: a COVID‑19 event study

Staff Analytical Note 2020-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer
The Bank of Canada launched the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility (BAPF) to ensure that the bankers’ acceptance (BA) market could continue to function well during the financial crisis induced by the COVID‑19 pandemic. We review the impact that the announcement of this facility had on BA yields in the secondary market. We find that BA yield spreads declined by 15 basis points on the day of the announcement and by up to 70 basis points over a longer period. Using an econometric framework, we quantify the effect of the announcement and confirm early assertions presented in the Bank’s 2020 Financial System Review.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

Canadian stock market since COVID‑19: Why a V-shaped price recovery?

Between February 19 and March 23, 2020, the Canadian stock market plunged due to the severe economic impact of COVID-19. By the end of the summer, the stock market had already recovered a significant portion of its losses, leaving many asking if investors see the economy through rose-coloured glasses. Despite these concerns, we find that current market valuations for companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange align well, on average, with the declines in earning forecasts observed since the start of the year. We also find these market valuations are consistent with the discount rate returning to its pre-pandemic level.

On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity

Staff Working Paper 2020-42 Ruben Hipp
Various business interactions of banks create a network of hidden relationships, which cannot be directly inferred from the correlation of bank stock returns. Without causality, it remains unclear how policy interventions change the network. Thus, this paper aims to find the causal network as anticipated by investors.