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Indicators of capacity and inflation pressures for Canada

The Bank of Canada monitors a wide range of indicators in assessing the extent of pressures on capacity and inflation.

Updated: March 7, 2024
Next update: April 10, 2024

The Bank's conventional estimate of the output gap provides an overall assessment of the degree of slack in the economy, but this estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty is addressed by considering a wide range of indicators in various markets.

  • Many of these indicators are derived from data published by Statistics Canada, but some reflect information gathered by the Bank's regional representatives as well as by various outside sources. (See: Sources)
  • For further discussion of uncertainty as well as the information and analysis used to inform monetary policy decisions at the Bank of Canada, see the following:

The following tables are updated one day after the Bank's most recent announcement date for the target overnight rate, based on information available up to that date. When the fixed announcement date is accompanied by a quarterly Monetary Policy Report, the tables are updated on the day of release.

Inflation (year-over-year percentage change)
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1Latest data
CPI Inflation 7.57.26.75.23.63.73.3 2.9 Jan
CPI-trim 5.55.45.44.83.93.73.6 3.4 Jan
CPI-median 5.05.15.44.94.03.83.5 3.3 Jan
CPI-common 5.35.86.05.95.34.74.0 3.4 Jan
Chain price index for GDP 9.57.75.42.2-0.41.63.0 3.0 Q4
Chain price index for consumption 6.25.85.44.43.43.43.3 3.3 Q4

Product market
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1Latest data
Current MPR output gap (%)11.71.30.70.80.6-0.1 -0.1 Q3
Historical MPR output gap (%)10.91.10.70.80.2-0.1 -0.1 Q3
Output gap (Integrated framework) (%)10.70.7-0.10.0-0.3-1.2 -1.2 Q3
Output gap (Extended multivariate filter) (%)12.12.11.31.30.8-0.4 -0.4 Q3
Business Outlook SurveyDifficulty meeting an unanticipated increase in demand/sales (% firms)79766959474645 45 Q4
Unfilled orders/shipments - Manufacturing excluding aerospace products and parts0.840.860.850.850.860.830.84 0.84 Dec
Aggregate stock-to-sales ratio0.7100.7600.7960.8030.8240.8340.837 0.837 Q4
Foreign demand for Canadian non-commodity exports (2007=100)1GRACE121.6122.0121.0120.6121.3121.3 121.3 Q3
FAM-IO143.3144.5144.9146.3147.2148.1 148.1 Q3
  1. 1. As of the most recent Monetary Policy Report. Learn more on the MPR current and historical output gaps and the extended multivariate filter and integrated framework. The current MPR output gap contains the estimates of the output gap embedded in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, whereas the historical MPR is a series containing historical estimates made in real time, without any revisions. The extended multivariate filter and integrated framework output gaps shown here are constructed as the difference between GDP and two alternative measures of potential output that are key inputs into the final potential output estimates embedded in the MPR.[]

Labour market
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1Latest data
Unemployment rate (%) 5.25.05.15.15.35.55.8 5.7 Jan 
Labour market indicator (LMI) 4.95.45.25.05.35.65.8 5.7 Jan 
Participation rate (%) 65.665.365.465.765.765.665.6 65.3 Jan 
Growth in employment (annualized rate, %) 4.20.42.43.91.81.71.9 0.2 Jan 2
Labour shortage (% firms, Business Outlook Survey) 42463831303227 27 Q4 
Intensity of labour shortages (balance of opinion, Business Outlook Survey) 664425-30-23-46-44 -44 Q4 
  1. 2. Percentage change at monthly rate.[]

Wages and costs (year-over-year percentage change)
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1Latest data
Wage-common3.33.13.32.93.23.23.0 3.0 Q4
Wage-common inputsLabour Force Survey – Average Hourly Earnings4.04.75.35.14.85.05.0 5.3 Jan
Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours – Average Hourly Earnings4.23.54.33.13.83.92.9 2.5 Dec
Productivity Accounts – Compensation per Hour4.03.54.22.13.34.34.7 4.7 Q4
National Accounts – Hourly Wages and Salaries4.33.74.43.24.34.13.6 3.6 Q4
Unit labour costs - Total economy (labour income/GDP at market prices)5.14.45.24.35.56.35.5 5.5 Q4
Bank of Canada commodity price indexTotal44.620.6-2.5-22.1-30.9-14.2-8.8 -6.7 Feb
Energy70.229.3-0.3-22.9-34.5-13.5-5.8 -1.4 Feb
Non-energy15.46.8-8.2-20.9-25.5-14.8-12.6 -13.8 Feb

Real estate market
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1Latest data
New housing price index (year-over-year percentage change)8.56.94.41.4-0.5-0.9-0.8 -0.7 Jan
Vacancy rateApartments (%)
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
1.9 1.9 Q4
Offices (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
15.515.515.916.416.316.616.7 16.7 Q4
Industrial market (%)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
1.21.31.41.51.62.12.7 2.7 Q4
Housing affordability index0.5060.5080.4980.4920.5040.5450.543 0.543 Q4

Expectations
Selected definitions, graphs and historical data
2022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1Latest data
Percentage of firms expecting price increases over the next six months of:
Source: The Conference Board of Canada
1% or less38310683 Q4
2% or less13151017231922 22 Q4
3% or less20212637524868 68 Q4
more than 3%80797463485232 32 Q4
CPI inflation: Consensus Forecasts (year-over-year percentage change)
Source: Consensus Economics
20232.83.43.73.73.63.73.9 3.9 Dec
2024 2.32.32.42.62.5 2.5 Jan
2025 2.1 2.1 Jan
2-3 years2.22.22.22.02.12.02.12.1 2.1 Q1
6-10 years2.02.02.02.02.12.12.02.0 2.0 Q1
Percentage of firms expecting CPI inflation over the next two years to be:
Source: Business Outlook Survey
Less than 1%0100000 Q4
1-2%1201243 Q4
2-3%11131617303939 39 Q4
more than 3%78778479645354 54 Q4
Expectations implicit in real/nominal bond spread1.81.81.91.91.71.71.7 1.7 Feb