G01 - Financial Crises

• Estimating Systematic Risk Under Extremely Adverse Market Conditions

  Staff Working Paper 2016-22 Maarten van Oordt, Chen Zhou

  This paper considers the problem of estimating a linear model between two heavy-tailed variables if the explanatory variable has an extremely low (or high) value. We propose an estimator for the model coefficient by exploiting the tail dependence between the two variables and prove its asymptotic properties.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G0, G01

• Early Warning of Financial Stress Events: A Credit-Regime-Switching Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2016-21 Fuchun Li, Hongyu Xiao

  We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?

  Staff Working Paper 2016-19 Sami Alpanda, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G0, G01

• Opaque Assets and Rollover Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2016-17 Benjamin Nelson, Toni Ahnert

  We model the asset-opacity choice of an intermediary subject to rollover risk in wholesale funding markets. Greater opacity means investors form more dispersed beliefs about an intermediary’s profitability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2

• Asset Encumbrance, Bank Funding and Financial Fragility

  Staff Working Paper 2016-16 Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai, James Chapman, Toni Ahnert

  In this piece we show that a limit on the level of asset encumbrance and minimum capital requirements are effective tools for minimizing the incentive for banks to take excessive risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28

• Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries

  Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey

  This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15

• Emergency Liquidity Facilities, Signalling and Funding Costs

  Staff Working Paper 2015-44 Céline Gauthier, Alfred Lehar, Héctor Pérez Saiz, Moez Souissi

  In the months preceding the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, banks were willing to pay a premium over the Federal Reserve’s discount window (DW) rate to participate in the much less flexible Term Auction Facility (TAF). We empirically test the predictions of a new signalling model that offers a rationale for offering two different liquidity facilities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28

• Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Cross-Country Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 2015-41 Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess, Rose Cunningham

  Central banks may face challenges in achieving their price stability goals when financial stability risks are present. There is, however, considerable heterogeneity among central banks with respect to how they manage these potential trade-offs.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, G, G0, G01

• Quantifying Contagion Risk in Funding Markets: A Model-Based Stress-Testing Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2015-32 Kartik Anand, Céline Gauthier, Moez Souissi

  We propose a tractable, model-based stress-testing framework where the solvency risks, funding liquidity risks and market risks of banks are intertwined.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
• June 11, 2015

  Assessing Vulnerabilities in the Canadian Financial System

  Financial System Review - June 2015 Ian Christensen, Gitanjali Kumar, Césaire Meh, Lorie Zorn

  The authors present the four common cyclical vulnerabilities that appear in financial systems, providing examples of qualitative and quantitative indicators used to monitor these vulnerabilities across different sectors. They also discuss other inputs to the vulnerability assessment and to the internal process used at the Bank of Canada for identifying, evaluating and communicating vulnerabilities and risks, and highlight some of the key challenges in assessing financial system vulnerabilities and risks.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20