F17 - Trade Forecasting and Simulation - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T14:56:35+00:00Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-analytical-note-2018-28/
We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.2018-08-27T10:33:50+00:00enWeakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors2018-08-27What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/08/staff-analytical-note-2018-25/
This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.2018-08-27T09:08:51+00:00enWhat Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?2018-08-27Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/11/staff-discussion-paper-2017-15/
Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products.2017-11-22T11:46:13+00:00enProduct Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth2017-11-22Development economicsExchange ratesInternational topicsStaff Discussion Paper 2017-15https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/sdp2017-15.pdfProduct Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export GrowthMark KrugerWalter SteingressSri ThanabalasingamNovember 2017FF1F14F17OO1O10An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/01/staff-discussion-paper-2017-1/
We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.2017-01-18T10:00:18+00:00enAn Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports2017-01-18Balance of payments and componentsExchange ratesInternational topicsStaff Discussion Paper 2017-1https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/sdp2017-1.pdfGlobal Real Activity for Canadian Exports: GRACEPatrick AlexanderJean-Philippe CayenAlex ProulxJanuary 2017FF1F10F14F17Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/07/technical-report-102/
The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.2014-07-23T13:10:09+00:00enAnalyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model2014-07-23Econometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsTechnical Report 102https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/tr102.pdfAnalyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS ModelOlivier GervaisMarc-André GosselinJuly 2014CC5C53EE1E17E2E27E3E37FF1F17A Foreign Activity Measure for Predicting Canadian Exports
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/02/discussion-paper-2012-01/
The author constructs a measure of foreign activity that takes into account the composition of foreign demand for Canadian exports. It has a number of interesting features.2012-02-02T15:41:57+00:00enA Foreign Activity Measure for Predicting Canadian Exports2012-02-02Balance of payments and componentsExchange ratesRecent economic and financial developmentsDiscussion Paper 2012-01https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/dp2012-01.pdfA Foreign Activity Measure for Predicting Canadian ExportsLouis MorelFebruary 2012EE0E00FF1F17MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2005/12/technical-report-no96/
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection.2005-12-01T09:57:40+00:00enMUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy2005-12-01Business fluctuations and cyclesEconomic modelsTechnical Report 96 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/tr96.pdfMUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. EconomyMarc-André GosselinRené LalondeDecember 2005CC5C53EE1E17E2E27E3E37FF1F17