F01 - Global Outlook - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T09:15:59+00:00IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/03/technical-report-116/
We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.2020-03-06T11:09:46+00:00enIMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity2020-03-06Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsInternational topicsTechnical Report 116https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/tr116.pdfTechnical Report 116Patrick BlagraveClaudia GodboutJustin-Damien GuénetteRené LalondeNikita PerevalovMarch 2020CC6C68EE2E27E3E37FF0F01F3F32F4F47A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/12/staff-analytical-note-2017-24/
This note presents a composite indicator of Canadian financial system vulnerabilities—the Vulnerabilities Barometer. It aims to complement the Bank of Canada’s vulnerabilities assessment by adding a quantitative and synthesized perspective to the more granular (distributional) analysis presented in the Financial System Review.2017-12-18T10:27:38+00:00enA Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities2017-12-18An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/boc-review-autumn2017-dorich.pdf
The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.2017-11-16T12:16:01+00:00enAn Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest2017-11-16Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/boc-review-spring17-fay.pdf
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.2017-05-11T10:26:31+00:00enWhy Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies2017-05-11The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/09/staff-analytical-note-2016-13/
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.2016-09-22T09:46:56+00:00enThe Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye2016-09-22The Case of Serial Disappointment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/07/staff-analytical-note-2016-10/
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.2016-07-22T10:07:29+00:00enThe Case of Serial Disappointment2016-07-22What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/02/staff-discussion-paper-2016-5/
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.2016-02-08T12:33:39+00:00enWhat Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?2016-02-08Business fluctuations and cyclesCentral bank researchDomestic demand and componentsEconomic modelsInternational topicsMonetary policy and uncertaintyRecent economic and financial developmentsStaff Discussion Paper 2016-5https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-5.pdfWhat Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?Maxime LeboeufRobert FayFebruary 2016CC2C23C3C33DD2D24D8D80D84EE2E22FF0F01GG3G31Is Slower Growth the New Normal in Advanced Economies?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/boc-review-autumn15-reza.pdf
This article reviews and examines some of the main explanations for the slow growth that many advanced economies continue to experience seven years after the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Does this muted recovery reflect just a prolonged cycle in the aftermath of a financial crisis? Is it due to a structural inadequacy of demand leading to a long-lasting liquidity trap? Or is it largely supply side in nature, reflecting demographic and technological factors?2015-11-19T10:50:27+00:00enIs Slower Growth the New Normal in Advanced Economies?2015-11-19Prospects for Global Current Account Rebalancing
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/04/discussion-paper-2010-4/
The authors use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model, a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking system (the BoC-GEM-FIN), to study the evolution of global current account balances following the recent global financial crisis.2010-04-19T00:00:30+00:00enProspects for Global Current Account Rebalancing2010-04-19Balance of payments and componentsBusiness fluctuations and cyclesInternational topicsRecent economic and financial developmentsDiscussion paper 2010-4 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/dp10-4.pdfProspects for Global Current Account RebalancingKimberly BeatonCarlos De ResendeRené LalondeStephen SnuddenApril 2010EE2E21FF0F01F3F32Introducing the Bank of Canada's Projection Model for the Global Economy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/03/technical-report-no99/
To complement its existing set of tools to analyze and forecast developments in the global economy, the Bank of Canada recently developed a version of the Global Projection Model (GPM) jointly with staff at the International Monetary Fund.2010-03-07T13:22:54+00:00enIntroducing the Bank of Canada's Projection Model for the Global Economy2010-03-07Business fluctuations and cyclesEconomic modelsInternational topicsTechnical Report 99 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/tr99.pdfIntroducing the Bank of Canada’s Projection Model for the Global EconomyJeannine BailliuPatrick BlagraveJames RossiterMarch 2010CC6C68EE2E27E3E37FF0F01