E58 - Central Banks and Their Policies
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Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty
How can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy? -
The Effectiveness of Official Foreign Exchange Intervention in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Canadian Dollar
The Bank of Canada is one of very few central banks that has made records of the intraday timing of its intervention operations available to researchers. -
Monetary Policy under Model and Data-Parameter Uncertainty
Policy-makers in the United States over the past 15 to 20 years seem to have been cautious in setting policy: empirical estimates of monetary policy rules such as Taylor's (1993) rule are much less aggressive than those derived from optimizing models. -
The Implications of Transmission and Information Lags for the Stabilization Bias and Optimal Delegation
In two recent papers, Jensen (2002) and Walsh (2003), using a hybrid New Keynesian model, demonstrate that a regime that targets either nominal income growth or the change in the output gap can effectively replicate the outcome under commitment and hence reduce the size of the stabilization bias. -
Counterfeiting: A Canadian Perspective
Counterfeiting is a significant public policy issue, because paper money, despite rumours of its demise, remains an important part of our payments system. -
Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Canada: Some Interesting Principles for EMU?
Choosing a well-designed framework for fiscal and monetary policies is a challenge for economic authorities. -
When Bad Things Happen to Good Banks: Contagious Bank Runs and Currency Crises
The author develops a twin crisis model featuring multiple banks. -
Anatomy of a Twin Crisis
The author presents a model of a twin crisis, in which foreign and domestic residents play a banking game. Both "honest" and run equilibria of the post-deposit subgame exist; some run equilibria lead to a currency crisis, as agents convert domestic currency to foreign currency. -
Alternative Targeting Regimes, Transmission Lags, and the Exchange Rate Channel
Using a closed-economy model, Jensen (2002) and Walsh (2003) have, respectively, shown that a policy regime that optimally targets nominal income growth (NIT) or the change in the output gap (SLT) outperforms a regime that targets inflation, because NIT and SLT induce more inertia in the actions of the central bank, effectively replicating the outcome obtained under precommitment. The author obtains a very different result when the analysis is extended to open-economy models.