E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T12:51:31+00:00Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-working-paper-2024-10/
We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature.2024-03-27T12:42:07+00:00enForecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach2024-03-27Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsStaff Working Paper 2024-10https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/swp2024-10.pdfForecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model ApproachAntoine Poulin-MooreKerem TuzcuogluMarch 2024CC5C51C53EE3E32How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/02/staff-working-paper-2024-5/
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.2024-02-16T10:31:48+00:00enHow Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty2024-02-16Business fluctuations and cyclesInflation and pricesMonetary policy and uncertaintyStaff Working Paper 2024-5https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/swp2024-5.pdfHow Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation UncertaintyTao WangFebruary 2024DD8D84EE3E31E7E71Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-discussion-paper-2023-29/
Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment.2023-12-11T11:19:01+00:00enMaking It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections2023-12-11Economic modelsMonetary policyStaff Discussion Paper 2023-29https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/sdp2023-29.pdfMaking It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank ProjectionsMarc-André GosselinSharon KozickiDecember 2023CC3C32C5C51EE3E37E4E47E5E52Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-analytical-note-2023-17/
We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.2023-12-07T12:35:52+00:00enAssessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation2023-12-07International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/11/staff-working-paper-2023-56/
We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.2023-11-01T15:05:01+00:00enInternational Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers2023-11-01Economic modelsFiscal policyInternational topicsStaff Working Paper 2023-56https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/swp2023-56.pdfInternational Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy SpilloversSami AlpandaUluc AysunSerdar KabacaNovember 2023EE3E32E6E62FF4F41F44Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/staff-discussion-paper-2023-27/
This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services.2023-10-31T13:26:19+00:00enDigitalization: Prices of Goods and Services2023-10-31DigitalizationInflation and pricesMarket structure and pricingMonetary policyStaff Discussion Paper 2023-27https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/sdp2023-27.pdfDigitalization: Prices of Goods and ServicesVivian ChuTatjana DahlhausChristopher HajzlerOctober 2023DD2EE3E31E5E52LL1L11Uncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/staff-working-paper-2023-55/
We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records.2023-10-27T10:08:52+00:00enUncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records2023-10-27Labour marketsPotential outputProductivityStaff Working Paper 2023-55https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/swp2023-55.pdfUncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation RecordsSerdar BirinciYoungmin ParkThomas PughKurt SeeOctober 2023EE2E24E3E32JJ3J31J6J63J65Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/staff-discussion-paper-2023-24/
This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation.2023-10-13T09:22:07+00:00enVariations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation2023-10-13Inflation and pricesInternational topicsStaff Discussion Paper 2023-24https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/sdp2023-24.pdfVariations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food InflationDaniel HyunJacky LeeOctober 2023EE3E31QQ0Q02Q1Q11Q17Q18Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/09/staff-working-paper-2023-49/
A regulator would want to restrict dividends to force banks to rebuild capital during a crisis. But such a policy is not time-consistent. A time-consistent policy would let banks gradually rebuild capital and pay dividends even when their equity remains below pre-crisis levels.2023-09-27T13:03:27+00:00enShould Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?2023-09-27Business fluctuations and cyclesCredit and credit aggregatesCredit risk managementFinancial stabilityFinancial system regulation and policiesLender of last resortStaff Working Paper 2023-49https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/swp2023-49.pdfStaff Working Paper 2023-49Josef SchrothSeptember 2023EE1E13E3E32E4E44The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/08/staff-working-paper-2023-48/
A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings.2023-08-28T11:39:12+00:00enThe Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions2023-08-28Business fluctuations and cyclesCredit and credit aggregatesDebt managementHousingStaff Working Paper 2023-48https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/swp2023-48.pdfThe Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During RecessionsSoyoung LeeAugust 2023EE2E21E3E32E6