E1 - General Aggregative Models
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Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies
The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel. -
Working Time over the 20th Century
From 1870 to 2000, the workweek length of employed persons decreased by 41 per cent in industrialized countries. -
MUSE: The Bank of Canada's New Projection Model of the U.S. Economy
The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection. -
Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information
The authors investigate whether the aggregation of region-specific forecasts improves upon the direct forecasting of Canadian GDP growth. -
Self-Enforcing Labour Contracts and the Dynamics Puzzle
To properly account for the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables, researchers incorporate various internal-propagation mechanisms in their models. -
Poignée de main invisible et persistance des cycles économiques : une revue de la littérature
The author explains how self-enforcing labour contracts can enhance the performance of macroeconomic models. He exposes the benefits of using these dynamic contracts to account for some puzzling macroeconomic facts regarding the dynamics and persistence of employment, consumption and output. -
Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain
This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1. -
Evaluating the Quarterly Projection Model: A Preliminary Investigation
This paper summarizes the results of recent research evaluating the Bank of Canada's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). -
Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM
This paper documents the structure and properties of the Canadian Policy Analysis Model (CPAM). CPAM is designed to provide a reasonably complete representation of the Canadian macro economy.