C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
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The Impact of the Global Business Cycle on Small Open Economies: A FAVAR Approach for Canada
Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model with more than 260 series for 20 OECD countries to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy. -
Testing Linear Factor Pricing Models with Large Cross-Sections: A Distribution-Free Approach
We develop a finite-sample procedure to test the beta-pricing representation of linear factor pricing models that is applicable even if the number of test assets is greater than the length of the time series. Our distribution-free framework leaves open the possibility of unknown forms of non-normalities, heteroskedasticity, time-varying correlations, and even outliers in the asset returns. -
Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting
The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format. -
Simulations du ratio du service de la dette des consommateurs en utilisant des données micro
The author constructs a formal analytic framework to simulate the impact of various economic shocks on the household debt-service ratio, using data from the Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) survey. -
Estimation and Inference by the Method of Projection Minimum Distance
A covariance-stationary vector of variables has a Wold representation whose coefficients can be semi-parametrically estimated by local projections (Jordà, 2005). Substituting the Wold representations for variables in model expressions generates restrictions that can be used by the method of minimum distance to estimate model parameters. -
Tracking Canadian Trend Productivity: A Dynamic Factor Model with Markov Switching
The author attempts to track Canadian labour productivity over the past four decades using a multivariate dynamic factor model that, in addition to the labour productivity series, includes aggregate compensation and consumption information. Productivity is assumed to switch between two regimes (the high-growth state and the low-growth state) with different trend growth rates according to […] -
The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models
This paper examines the ability of linear and nonlinear models to replicate features of real Canadian GDP. We evaluate the models using various business-cycle metrics. -
Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility
We present a new matrix-logarithm model of the realized covariance matrix of stock returns. The model uses latent factors which are functions of both lagged volatility and returns. -
Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation
This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes.