C23 - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T10:00:13+00:00Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/01/staff-working-paper-2023-4/
Does consumption smoothing fundamentally decrease during macroeconomic disasters? This paper uses a large historical dataset (1870–2016) for 16 industrial economies to show that during macroeconomic disasters (e.g., wars, pandemics, depressions) aggregate consumption and income are significantly less decoupled than during normal times.2023-01-10T16:00:41+00:00enMacroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data2023-01-10Business fluctuations and cyclesCoronavirus disease (COVID-19)Econometric and statistical methodsStaff Working Paper 2023-4https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/swp2023-4.pdfStaff Working Paper 2023-4Lorenzo PozziBarbara SadabaJanuary 2023CC2C23EE2E21Weather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil Production
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/08/staff-working-paper-2022-36/
Do technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We show that hurricanes lower offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and that stronger storms have larger impacts. Regulations enacted in 1980 that required improved offshore construction standards only modestly mitigated the production losses.2022-08-09T11:48:11+00:00enWeather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil Production2022-08-09Business fluctuations and cyclesClimate changePotential outputStaff Working Paper 2022-36https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/swp2022-36.pdfWeather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil ProductionJohan BrannlundGeoffrey R. DunbarReinhard EllwangerMatthew KrutkiewiczAugust 2022CC2C22C23QQ4Q40Q48Q5Q54COVID-19, Containment and Consumption
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/03/staff-discussion-paper-2022-5/
We assess the impact of COVID-19 on consumption indicators by estimating the effects of government-mandated containment measures and of the willingness of individuals to voluntarily physically distance to prevent contagion.2022-03-18T12:38:53+00:00enCOVID-19, Containment and Consumption2022-03-18Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)Domestic demand and componentsStaff Discussion Paper 2022-5https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/sdp2022-5.pdfCOVID-19, Containment and ConsumptionTatjana DahlhausDaniel HyunAntoine Poulin-MooreJaime TrujilloSaarah SheikhBenjamin StrausMarch 2022CC2C23DD1D12EE6E65II1I18Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/05/staff-working-paper-2019-16/
Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals.2019-05-02T14:10:05+00:00enComposite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects2019-05-02Credit risk managementEconometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsStaff Working Paper 2019-16https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/swp2019-16.pdfComposite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random EffectsKerem TuzcuogluMay 2019CC2C23C25C5C58GG2G24Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-discussion-paper-2018-16/
Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility.2018-12-10T12:04:49+00:00enFundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada2018-12-10Econometric and statistical methodsEconomic modelsHousingStaff Discussion Paper 2018-16https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/sdp2018-16.pdfFundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in CanadaTaylor WebleyDecember 2018CC2C22C23EE2E27RR2R21The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/staff-discussion-paper-2018-11/
The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows.2018-10-03T08:17:42+00:00enThe Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows2018-10-03Balance of payments and componentsEconometric and statistical methodsInternational topicsStaff Discussion Paper 2018-11https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/sdp2018-11.pdfThe Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio OutflowsRose CunninghamEden HatzviKun MoOctober 2018CC2C23FF2F21F3F32GG1G15Wage Dynamics and Returns to Unobserved Skill
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/12/staff-working-paper-2017-61/
Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the U.S. over the past few decades. We identify and estimate a general model of log wage residuals that incorporates: (i) changing returns to unobserved skills, (ii) a changing distribution of unobserved skills, and (iii) changing volatility in wages due to factors unrelated to skills.2017-12-27T10:25:24+00:00enWage Dynamics and Returns to Unobserved Skill2017-12-27Econometric and statistical methodsLabour marketsStaff Working Paper 2017-61https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/swp2017-61.pdfWage Dynamics and Returns to Unobserved SkillLance LochnerYoungmin ParkYoungki ShinDecember 2017CC2C23JJ2J24J3J31Markov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/04/staff-working-paper-2017-13/
We introduce a new approach for the estimation of high-dimensional factor models with regime-switching factor loadings by extending the linear three-pass regression filter to settings where parameters can vary according to Markov processes.2017-04-20T13:08:27+00:00enMarkov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression Filter2017-04-20Econometric and statistical methodsStaff Working Paper 2017-13https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/swp2017-13.pdfMarkov‐Switching Three‐Pass Regression FilterPierre GuérinDanilo Leiva-LeonMassimiliano MarcellinoApril 2017CC2C22C23C5C53Monetary Policy, Private Debt and Financial Stability Risks
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/12/staff-working-paper-2016-59/
Can monetary policy be used to promote financial stability? We answer this question by estimating the impact of a monetary policy shock on private-sector leverage and the likelihood of a financial crisis. Impulse responses obtained from a panel VAR model of 18 advanced countries suggest that the debt-to-GDP ratio rises in the short run following an unexpected tightening in monetary policy.2016-12-19T13:17:39+00:00enMonetary Policy, Private Debt and Financial Stability Risks2016-12-19Credit and credit aggregatesFinancial stabilityMonetary policyMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2016-59https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/swp2016-59.pdfMonetary Policy, Private Debt and Financial Stability RisksGregory BauerEleonora GranzieraDecember 2016CC2C21C23EE5E52E58What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/02/staff-discussion-paper-2016-5/
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.2016-02-08T12:33:39+00:00enWhat Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?2016-02-08Business fluctuations and cyclesCentral bank researchDomestic demand and componentsEconomic modelsInternational topicsMonetary policy and uncertaintyRecent economic and financial developmentsStaff Discussion Paper 2016-5https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/sdp2016-5.pdfWhat Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?Maxime LeboeufRobert FayFebruary 2016CC2C23C3C33DD2D24D8D80D84EE2E22FF0F01GG3G31