Stephen Murchison - Bank Publications - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T14:40:51+00:00Variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments: Examining trigger rates
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/11/staff-analytical-notes-2022-19/
We estimate the share of variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments that reached the so-called trigger rate—the interest rate at which mortgage payments no longer cover the principal. Amid rising interest rates, this share was close to 50% at the end of October 2022 and could potentially reach 65% in 2023.2022-11-22T11:43:13+00:00enVariable-rate mortgages with fixed payments: Examining trigger rates2022-11-22The road to digital money
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/04/the-road-to-digital-money/
From beaver pelts to paper money to digital currencies2019-04-26T09:00:34+00:00enThe road to digital money2019-04-26Trading up
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/09/trading-up/
How countries benefit from freer trade.2018-09-28T10:00:53+00:00enTrading up2018-09-28Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/11/staff-discussion-paper-2017-13/
For central banks, conducting policy in an environment of uncertainty is a daily fact of life. This uncertainty can take many forms, ranging from incomplete knowledge of the correct economic model and data to future economic and geopolitical events whose precise magnitudes and effects cannot be known with certainty.2017-11-15T08:40:15+00:00enMonetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus Theory2017-11-15Monetary policyMonetary policy and uncertaintyStaff Discussion Paper 2017-13https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/sdp2017-13.pdfMonetary Policy Under Uncertainty: Practice Versus TheoryRhys R. MendesStephen MurchisonCarolyn A. WilkinsNovember 2017EE5E52E58E6E61E65Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/boc-review-autumn14-mendes.pdf
When constrained by the zero lower bound, some central banks have communicated a threshold that must be met before short-term interest rates would be permitted to rise. Simulation results for Canada show that forward guidance that is conditional on achieving a price-level threshold can theoretically raise demand and inflation expectations by significantly more than unemployment thresholds. This superior performance is attributable to the fact that the price-level threshold depends on past inflation outcomes. In practice, however, history-dependent thresholds such as this might be more challenging for central banks to communicate.2014-11-13T08:36:57+00:00enShould Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?2014-11-13ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/10/technical-report-100/
This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada.2013-10-24T09:16:53+00:00enToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model2013-10-24Business fluctuations and cyclesEconomic modelsTechnical Report No. 100https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/technical_report_100.pdfToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection ModelJosé DorichMichael K. JohnstonRhys R. MendesStephen MurchisonYang ZhangOctober 2013EE1E17E2E20E3E30E4E40E5E50FF4F41Price-Level Targeting and Relative-Price Shocks
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/murchison_summer10.pdf
Stephen Murchison reviews the findings of recent Bank of Canada research on the relative merits of inflation targeting and price-level targeting (PLT) for a small open economy, such as Canada's, that is susceptible to large and persistent terms-of-trade shocks.2010-08-19T08:33:40+00:00enPrice-Level Targeting and Relative-Price Shocks2010-08-19Monetary Policy Rules in an Uncertain Environment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/cateau.pdf
This article examines recent research on the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules: from simple rules to fully optimal monetary policy under commitment. The authors explain why uncertainty matters in the design of monetary policy rules and provide quantitative examples from the recent literature. They also present results for several policy rules in ToTEM, the Bank of Canada's main model for projection and analysis, including rules that respond to price level, rather than to inflation.2010-03-09T11:07:20+00:00enMonetary Policy Rules in an Uncertain Environment2010-03-09Declining Inflation Persistence in Canada: Causes and Consequences
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/mendes_murchison.pdf
The persistence of both core and total consumer price index inflation in Canada has declined significantly since the 1980s. In addition to providing up-to-date estimates of inflation persistence, this article examines possible reasons for the decline suggested in the literature. The role played by monetary policy, through its effect on price- and wage-setting behaviour, is distinguished from possible changes to the structure of the economy that are independent of monetary policy. The authors also discuss the implications for monetary policy of low structural persistence in inflation, including the choice of an inflation-targeting regime versus a price-level-targeting regime.2009-11-11T09:15:29+00:00enDeclining Inflation Persistence in Canada: Causes and Consequences2009-11-11Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Link?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/10/working-paper-2009-29/
Several authors have presented reduced-form evidence suggesting that the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the consumer price index has declined in Canada since the early 1980s and is currently close to zero.2009-10-15T14:26:40+00:00enExchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Link?2009-10-15Exchange ratesMonetary policy transmissionWorking Paper 2009-29 https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/wp09-29.pdfExchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Link?Stephen MurchisonOctober 2009EE5E52FF3F31F4F41