Luis Uzeda - Latest - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T14:06:18+00:00The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/01/staff-discussion-paper-2023-3/
The rise in inflation in 2021–22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages.2023-01-26T09:16:42+00:00enThe 2021–22 Surge in Inflation2023-01-26Inflation and pricesInflation targetsMonetary policyStaff Discussion Paper 2023-3https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/sdp2023-3.pdfStaff Discussion Paper 2023-3Oleksiy KryvtsovJames (Jim) C. MacGeeLuis UzedaJanuary 2023EE3E31E5E52E58Sectoral Uncertainty
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/09/staff-working-paper-2022-38/
We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary.2022-09-09T10:36:10+00:00enSectoral Uncertainty2022-09-09Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsMonetary policy and uncertaintyStaff Working Paper 2022-38https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/swp2022-38.pdfSectoral UncertaintyEfrem CastelnuovoKerem TuzcuogluLuis UzedaSeptember 2022CC5C51C55EE3E32E4E44Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/11/staff-working-paper-2020-45/
The goods and services sectors have experienced considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics.2020-11-03T13:20:02+00:00enUnderstanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors2020-11-03Econometric and statistical methodsInflation and pricesMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2020-45https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/swp2020-45.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-45Yunjong EoLuis UzedaBenjamin WongNovember 2020CC1C11C3C32EE3E31E5E52Endogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/05/staff-working-paper-2020-16/
We introduce a new class of time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs) where the identified structural innovations are allowed to influence — contemporaneously and with a lag — the dynamics of the intercept and autoregressive coefficients in these models.2020-05-07T11:18:18+00:00enEndogenous Time Variation in Vector Autoregressions2020-05-07Econometric and statistical methodsInflation and pricesMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2020-16https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/swp2020-16.pdfStaff Working Paper 2020-16Danilo Leiva-LeonLuis UzedaMay 2020CC1C11C3C32EE3E31E5E52State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/03/staff-working-paper-2018-14/
Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood.2018-03-16T10:40:23+00:00enState Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models2018-03-16Econometric and statistical methodsInflation and pricesStaff Working Paper 2018-14https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/swp2018-14.pdf"State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models"Luis UzedaMarch 2018CC1C11C15C5C51C53