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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T12:16:58+00:00Finding the balance—measuring risks to inflation and to GDP growth
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-analytical-note-2023-18/
Using our new quantitative tool, we show how the risks to the inflation and growth outlooks have evolved over the course of 2023.2023-12-19T11:22:43+00:00enFinding the balance—measuring risks to inflation and to GDP growth2023-12-19Is the stock market pricing in a V‑shaped recovery?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/07/staff-analytical-note-2020-17/
Major stock indexes have bounced back from their March 23 trough to about 10 percent below their peaks. However, stocks that are more sensitive to the business cycle have not performed as well during this market rally. This suggests that stock markets are pricing in a slower, shallower economic recovery.2020-07-29T10:00:16+00:00enIs the stock market pricing in a V‑shaped recovery?2020-07-29Markets Look Beyond the Headline
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/11/staff-analytical-note-2018-37/
Many reports and analyses interpret the release of new economic data based on the headline surprise—for instance, total inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate. However, we find that headline news alone cannot adequately explain the responses of market prices to new information. Rather, market prices react more strongly, on average, to non-headline news such as the composition of GDP growth, quality of jobs created and revisions to past data. Thus, tracking the impact of non-headline information released on the news day is crucial in analyzing how markets interpret and react to new economic data.2018-11-23T10:35:25+00:00enMarkets Look Beyond the Headline2018-11-23The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part III
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/05/staff-analytical-note-2018-13/
We draw a parallel between the dramatic increases of systematic variations in exchange rates and international bank lending. We find that when a country’s currency has a larger share of systematic variations, lending flows by international banks to that country become more sensitive to global lending - they also become more systematic. This parallel is particularly prevalent for large commodity exporters, including Canada. Global financial intermediation may open a new channel between the real economy and exchange rates.2018-05-07T06:00:27+00:00enThe Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part III2018-05-07The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/11/staff-analytical-note-2017-22/
In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time.2017-11-24T09:18:40+00:00enThe Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements2017-11-24Foreign Flows and Their Effects on Government of Canada Yields
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/11/staff-analytical-note-2015-1/
Foreign investment flows into Government of Canada (GoC) bonds have surged since the financial crisis. Our empirical analysis suggests that foreign flows of $150 billion lowered the 10-year GoC bond yield by 100 basis points between 2009 and 2012.2015-11-12T15:07:40+00:00enForeign Flows and Their Effects on Government of Canada Yields2015-11-12