Ian Christensen - Latest - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T13:08:08+00:00Assessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/boc-review-autumn13-pasricha.pdf
This article focuses on a quantitative method to identify financial system vulnerabilities, specifically, an imbalance indicator model (IIM) and its application to Canada. An IIM identifies potential vulnerabilities in a financial system by comparing current economic and financial data with data from periods leading up to past episodes of financial stress. It complements other sources of information - including market intelligence and regular monitoring of the economy - that policy-makers use to assess vulnerabilities.2013-11-14T08:09:13+00:00enAssessing Financial System Vulnerabilities: An Early Warning Approach2013-11-14Conference Summary: Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/boc-review-winter-12-13-allen.pdf
The Bank of Canada’s annual economic conference, held in October 2012, brought together experts from across Canada and around the world to discuss key issues concerning financial intermediation and vulnerabilities. The conference covered such topics as household finances and their relationship to financial stability, as well as bank regulation, securitization and shadow banking.2013-02-21T10:30:03+00:00enConference Summary: Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities2013-02-21Mortgage Debt and Procyclicality in the Housing Market
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/christensen.pdf
This article focuses on the role that loans backed by housing collateral play in amplifying housing booms and, more generally, procyclicality in the housing market. The author uses a model developed to include borrower and lender households, as well as a housing market, to examine the impact that altering the loan-to-value ratio (either permanently or countercyclically) might have on the volatility of house prices and mortgage debt.2011-08-18T09:32:17+00:00enMortgage Debt and Procyclicality in the Housing Market2011-08-18Modelling Financial Channels for Monetary Policy Analysis
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/fung.pdf
The Bank of Canada considers a wide range of information and analysis before making a monetary policy decision and uses carefully articulated models to produce economic projections and to examine alternative scenarios. This article describes an ongoing research agenda at the Bank to develop models in which financial variables play an active role in the transmission of monetary policy actions to economic activity. Such models can help to analyze information from the financial side of the economy and to provide an overall view of the implications of financial developments for the current economic outlook. The authors also explain how this research can help address other issues relevant to the objectives of monetary policy, including how asset-price movements should be taken into account in the monetary policy framework.2006-10-08T15:36:39+00:00enModelling Financial Channels for Monetary Policy Analysis2006-10-08Real Return Bonds: Monetary Policy Credibility and Short-Term Inflation Forecasting
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/reid1.pdf
The break-even inflation rate (BEIR) is calculated by comparing the yields on conventional and Real Return Bonds. Defined as the average rate of inflation that equates the expected returns on these two bonds, the BEIR has the potential to contain useful information about long-run inflation expectations. Yet the BEIR has been higher, on average, and more variable than survey measures of inflation expectations, which may be explained by the effects of premiums and distortions embedded in the BEIR. Because of the difficulty in accounting for these distortions, the BEIR should not be given a large weight as a measure of long-run inflation expectations at this time. However, as the Real Return Bond market continues to develop, the BEIR should become a more useful indicator of inflation expectations. At present, it demonstrates no clear advantage over survey measures and even past inflation rates in forecasting near-term inflation.2004-11-23T14:25:45+00:00enReal Return Bonds: Monetary Policy Credibility and Short-Term Inflation Forecasting2004-11-23