Staff analytical notes, Staff discussion papers, Staff working papers, Technical reports, Other - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-28T17:50:05+00:00Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-working-paper-2024-10/
We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature.2024-03-27T12:42:07+00:00enForecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach2024-03-27Business fluctuations and cyclesEconometric and statistical methodsStaff Working Paper 2024-10https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/swp2024-10.pdfForecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model ApproachAntoine Poulin-MooreKerem TuzcuogluMarch 2024CC5C51C53EE3E32COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-discussion-paper-2024-2/
The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society.2024-03-25T12:20:03+00:00enCOVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey2024-03-25Bank notesDigital currencies and fintechEconometric and statistical methodsStaff Discussion Paper 2024-2https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/sdp2024-2.pdfCOVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance SurveyAngelika WelteKatrina TalaveraLiang WangJoy WuMarch 2024CC8DD2D22EE4LL2CBDC: Banking and Anonymity
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-working-paper-2024-9/
We examine the optimal amount of user anonymity in a central bank digital currency in the context of bank lending. Anonymity, defined as the lender’s inability to discern an entrepreneur’s actions that enable fund diversion, influences the choice of payment instrument due to its impact on a bank’s lending decisions.2024-03-22T13:47:02+00:00enCBDC: Banking and Anonymity2024-03-22Digital currencies and fintechStaff Working Paper 2024-9https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/swp2024-9.pdfStaff Working Paper 2024-9Yuteng ChengRyuichiro IzumiMarch 2024EE4E42E5E58GG2G28Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-working-paper-2024-8/
I investigate how monetary policy transmits to mortgage rates via the mortgage market concentration channel for both traditional and shadow banks in the United States from 2009 to 2019. On average, shadow and traditional banks exhibit only a slight disparity in transmitting monetary shocks to mortgage rates.2024-03-21T14:53:44+00:00enMonetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks2024-03-21Financial institutionsInterest ratesMonetary policy transmissionStaff Working Paper 2024-8https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/swp2024-8.pdfStaff Working Paper 2024-8Amina EnkhboldMarch 2024EE4E44E5E52GG2G21Regulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-working-paper-2024-7/
We study the degree to which China’s 11th Five-Year Plan softens trade-offs between emissions and output. Our model suggests efficient regulation could have further increased aggregate productivity by 3.5% and output by 4.7% without any increase in aggregate emissions.2024-03-21T14:07:50+00:00enRegulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan2024-03-21Climate changeProductivityStaff Working Paper 2024-7https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/swp2024-7.pdfRegulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year PlanBrantly CallawayTong LiJoel RodrigueYuya SasakiYong TanMarch 2024CC2C21DD2D24QQ5Q53What has been putting upward pressure on CORRA?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-analytical-note-2024-4/
From the autumn of 2023 into early 2024, the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA), a measure of the cost of overnight general collateral Canadian dollar repos, was consistently well above the Bank’s target for the overnight rate. We find that, among several factors, long bond positions that require repo financing are the main driver of the recent upward pressure on CORRA.2024-03-21T09:35:25+00:00enWhat has been putting upward pressure on CORRA?2024-03-21Decomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading Losses
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/staff-working-paper-2024-6/
Do banks realize simultaneous trading losses because they invest in the same assets, or because different assets are subject to the same macro shocks? This paper decomposes the comovements of bank trading losses into two orthogonal channels: portfolio overlap and common shocks.2024-03-07T09:53:20+00:00enDecomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading Losses2024-03-07Financial institutionsFinancial stabilityStaff Working Paper 2024-6https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/swp2024-6.pdfDecomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading LossesRadoslav RaykovMarch 2024GG1G10G11G2G20How changes in the share of constrained households affect the effectiveness of monetary policy
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/02/staff-analytical-note-2024-3/
We measure how the change in the share of constrained households in Canada following the COVID-19 recession has impacted the effectiveness of monetary policy.2024-02-21T14:06:06+00:00enHow changes in the share of constrained households affect the effectiveness of monetary policy2024-02-21How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/02/staff-working-paper-2024-5/
The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment.2024-02-16T10:31:48+00:00enHow Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty2024-02-16Business fluctuations and cyclesInflation and pricesMonetary policy and uncertaintyStaff Working Paper 2024-5https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/swp2024-5.pdfHow Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation UncertaintyTao WangFebruary 2024DD8D84EE3E31E7E71Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/02/staff-working-paper-2024-4/
To what extent does a central bank digital currency (CBDC) compete with bank deposits? To answer this question, we develop and estimate a structural model where each household chooses which financial institution to deposit their digital money with.2024-02-08T09:27:59+00:00enCentral Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices2024-02-08Central bank researchDigital currencies and fintechStaff Working Paper 2024-4https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/swp2024-4.pdfCentral Bank Digital Currency and Banking ChoicesJiaqi LiAndrew UsherYu ZhuFebruary 2024EE5E50E58